WEEKS 10-11: PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTIONS AND THE
PARTIES
This is so much material
that it is likely to take longer than two weeks. Indeed, it is likely to make
up two questions on the final (to go along with the likely two questions from
presidential nominations). Just answer two of the four questions, of course.
You can address why a party’s candidate wins the general election by using the
University of Michigan social psychological model of three major factors- party
identification, issues, and candidate qualities. The majority party usually
wins, unless the issues or candidates significantly favor the minority party. Democrats
were the majority up to and including 1980. Starting in 1984, the two parties
are tied, so issues and candidates became the decisive factors. Party identification is regarded as a long-term factor, as voters tend to keep the same party for most of their lives, while issues and candidate qualities are seen as short-term factors specific to individual election years.
1948 Presidential Election
Well, Harry Truman becomes President after FDR
dies in 1945, and he ends World War 2 by making the tough decision to drop two
atomic bombs on Japan. But compared to the charismatic speaker FDR, many
intellectual leaders in the Democratic Party lacked respect for the Missouri
party machine created Harry Truman. Indeed, even Truman offered to step aside
if popular military leader of all allied forces in Europe during the world war,
General Dwight (Ike) Eisenhower, wanted the Democratic presidential nomination
in 1948. At the Democratic Party national convention that year, northern
Democrats (led by Minneapolis mayor Hubert Humphrey) successfully backed a
pro-civil rights plank for the party. The delegations from Mississippi and
Alabama promptly walked out of the convention, held their own conventions in
those two states, and nominated segregationist Democratic governor of South
Carolina, Strom Thurmond, as their presidential candidate (with Mississippi
governor Fielding Wright as V.P.). Their third party was the Dixiecrats,
or States’ Rights Party, whose party platform stated: “We stand for
the segregation of the races and the racial integrity of each race.” Meanwhile,
a fourth party was also created, led by left-winger Henry Wallace,
who argued that Truman was too tough on the communist Soviet Union. So poor
Harry Truman, his majority party is split three ways. The press counted him
out, polls had him losing. Republicans nominated New York governor Thomas
Dewey.
A split majority party, you’d think Truman would
lose. Indeed, the Republicans had regained control of Congress in the first
post-war midterm election of 1946 during a time of high unemployment and
inflation. However, Democrats were still the majority party back
then, because they backed FDR’s popular economic social welfare program known as
the New Deal. The Republican platform had also pledged to enact some popular
economic issues. At the Democratic national convention accepting the
nomination Truman challenged the GOP-controlled Congress to just enact their
own party’s platform, and then called Congress back into a Special Session. The
GOP-led Congress ended up doing nothing. Truman fought back by conducting an
old-style Whistle Stop campaign. From the back of a train travelling across
America’s heartland, he stopped at every little town, and blasted the “Do
Nothing Republican Congress.” He told the crowds, “Remember Franklin Roosevelt
and the New Deal. We Democrats care about the common man. We care about the
workers… The Republicans. All they care about is Big Business. All they care
about is the Rich.” In short, Truman stressed his party’s popular New
Deal economic issues. On election night, Truman ended up winning. At that
time most major newspapers were run by Republican businessmen, and the Chicago
Tribune had printed its next day headlines” “Dewey Defeats Truman.” Truman
gleefully held up the newspaper the next day, showing how the pollsters were
wrong. (As they were in 2016)
1952 Presidential Election
Well, Eisenhower wasn’t a real ideologue or
partisan, but he thought about it, and decided that he was somewhat Republican,
so he ran for the Republican presidential nomination in 1952. Senator Robert
Taft, Mr. Conservative and Mr. Republican, thought that he was a shoo-in. But
“Citizens for Eisenhower” clubs shot up across the nation, and at the
convention Ike won a narrow first ballot victory. For the last time, a major
party had to go beyond a 1st ballot vote for their candidate,
as the unpopular Truman declined to run, and three major Democratic candidates
battled. The winner was Illinois governor Adlai Stevenson, a bland,
bald, boring intellectual type. The Democrats sought to reunify after 1948 by
placing Alabama Senator John Sparkman as Vice President.
Eisenhower won in the landslide, thanks to the
short-term factors. Regarding candidates, he was a popular war hero,
and he pledged to keep the popular New Deal programs like social security.
Regarding issues, he played on public dissatisfaction with the
Democratic president by blaming them for “Korea, communism, corruption.” Americans
were still dying in the Korean War (after communist North Korea had invaded
free South Korea). The communist Soviet Union had conquered all of Eastern
Europe, and even huge mainland China had fallen to the communists (free Chinese
fled to the island of Taiwan). There were allegations of corruption in the
Truman administration, with officials receiving personal gifts from people
seeking favors (a mink stole, a refrigerator).
The only thing
that could have derailed Eisenhower’s victory was a scandal regarding his Vice
President. The more moderate Eisenhower had picked California Senator Richard
Nixon as his running mate, since Nixon was very partisan and very
anti-communist (his congressional hearings had revealed that an FDR advisor,
Alger Hiss, was a Soviet agent). Democratic run newspapers began reporting that
as a Senator, Nixon had had a secret slush fund paid for by California
businessmen, and that he had used the fund for personal expenses. Nixon’s
political life was now on the line. Television was new back then, so Nixon made
a national TV address with his wife Pat sitting on a sofa behind him and
smiling dutifully. He explained that the fund was not secret, but was
administered by his accountant, and that the funds were only used to pay his
business expenses, to be able to travel back to California to meet his
constituents (this was before Congress voted themselves generous travel budgets).
Nixon said (all paraphrased): “In all my years of public life, I have never
accepted a personal gift, with one exception. One of my supporters from Texas
heard that my little girls liked dogs, so they gave us a little Cocker Spaniel
that the girls call Checkers. And I don’t care what anyone says, the kids love
the dog, and we’re going to keep him.” Hence, the famous speech became known as
the Checker’s Speech. Then Nixon jabbed at Truman’s alleged
corruption: “My wife Pat doesn’t have a mink stole. She just has an old cloth
coat. A good Republican cloth coat. But I tell her, honey, you’d look good in
anything!” Pat is smiling, lovingly, at her husband. Nixon winds up: “But I
wouldn’t do anything to prevent a great American like Dwight Eisenhower from
being elected President. So I’m going to leave it up to you out there. Call,
write, the national Republican headquarters, and let them know whether I should
stay on the ticket or get off. I will abide by your decision.” What do you
think happened? After many people bombarded the RNC, the national party
committee by voice vote kept Nixon on the ticket.
1956 Presidential Election
Eisenhower became rated as one of our ten
greatest Presidents. His accomplishments were Peace and Prosperity.
He ended the Korean War, kept us out of Vietnam, and had a booming economy with
average workers’ pay rising. So even though Eisenhower was
from the minority party (Democrats controlled Congress in 6 of his 8 years), Ike
was strong on the short-term factor of issues. He was also strong on the
candidates factor. He was very popular, and his campaign slogan had stick
figure Disney characters carried signs and chanting; “I like Ike, we all
like Ike…” He was not ideological or partisan. He let Nixon be the partisan,
gut fighter. Ike was bald, had a nice grin, and played golf a lot.
The poor Democrats ran Adlai Stevenson again. He
tried to generate some excitement by throwing the Vice-Presidential slot up for
grabs and letting the national convention just pick someone. Tennessee Senator
Estes Kefauver, a party maverick who had investigated big city corruption by
his own party’s mayors, got the nod. Losers included Massachusetts Senator John
Kennedy (like Nixon a returning World War 2 veteran) and Tennessee Senator Al
Gore Sr. (the father of Clinton’s Vice President). So you can see, some
commentators make fun of the national convention and say that it’s already decided,
why bother watching it, but you can often see future leaders emerging in such
national party gatherings. No general election surprise, as Eisenhower wins with an even bigger landslide
than four years ago.
1960 Presidential Election
Each of the party’s national nominating
conventions were quite educational. The Republican Party back then was so
ideologically diverse that the two candidates were Vice President Nixon and
liberal New York governor Nelson Rockefeller. They met and agreed on the
party’s platform, a meeting dubbed The Compact of Fifth Avenue. Democrats were
split between Senator Kennedy, and Texas Senator and Senate Majority Leader
Lyndon Johnson (a real wheeler dealer in getting his way in the senate). Kennedy
was nominated, and reunified the party with southerner Johnson (who also had
more experience) as VP. The Democratic party ability to reunite their majority party led to party identification helping to shape the election outcome.
Kennedy’s problems were being
too young (only 43, shades of Mayor Pete) and too Catholic (the
only Catholic ever nominated by a major party was Democrat Al
Smith in 1928, who lost in a landslide to Hoover). Kennedy campaigned in
heavily Protestant West Virginia and won the Democratic presidential primary.
He then addressed a conference of Protestant ministers in Texas. His theme was
(with his Boston accent): “I believe in the separation of church and state. I
will never let my personal religious beliefs interfere with my public actions
and leadership. If they ever did, I would resign. I expect that other
candidates would do the same.” In short, I will not take orders from the Pope!
This neutralized the religion issue. Another lesson for aspiring politicians is
to be willing to walk into the lion’s den- actually meet with and talk with likely
political opponents.
The age issue was neutralized because of the
first-time televised debates. Oddly enough, even though Nixon had done so well
on TV in 1952, in 1960 he looked bad on TV. He had just gotten out of the
hospital with a knee injury, he had a 5 o’clock shadow which they tried to
cover up with makeup which made him look very pale and sickly, and his eyes
kept shifting sideways (he became dubbed Tricky Dick). Kennedy was standing
tall, appeared poised, confident, articulate. Nixon didn’t even use all of his
time. In rebuttal, when asked by a reporter: (paraphrased: “The Republican
Party has been criticized by Democrats as only caring for the rich and big
business?”, Nixon’s response was: “Uh, pass.”) The content of the debate was
equal between the candidates (indeed, radio listeners thought Nixon had won),
but television is a visual medium, and Kennedy was charismatic.
So Kennedy
wins the presidential race, but it is so close that a slight vote shift in the
states of Illinois, Missouri, and Texas could have produced a Nixon electoral
college victory. Caring about how the emerging democracies in Third World
countries viewed America, Nixon graciously did not challenge the results in
these states, despite allegations of vote fraud in areas controlled by the
Democrats. Interesting that this was the last presidential elections where both
candidates were veterans and had served in wars (World War 2; indeed, Kennedy
had been a skipper of a PT boat that was destroyed, was marooned on an island,
and a movie was made about him- PT109). It is also interesting that this is the
last time that both major party presidential candidates were popular with most
voters. In other words, the average voter went to the polls liking both Kennedy
and Nixon (Nixon had faced down Soviet leader Khrushchev at a world exposition
in Moscow as he debated the merits of our free society; Nixon’s limousine had
nearly been overturned in Venezuela by anti-American protesters). A footnote to this election was that Nixon as the sitting Vice President had to count the electoral vote in a January joint session of Congress, where he announced Kennedy as the new President, talked about the importance of the orderly transition of authority in our democracy, and received a standing ovation from Congress members of both parties.
1964 Presidential Election
Republican Goldwater
was an honest, philosophical conservative, who even wrote a book The Conscience
of a Conservative. But he was very serious, unsmiling, and scary. One of his ads
had young American kids in a classroom reciting the pledge of allegiance while
the ad switched to the Soviet leader yelling, and an unsmiling Goldwater
saying: “When Khrushchev says that our kids will live under communism, we need
to say that his kids will live under freedom. And they will, if we have the
GUTS to make our intentions known.” Goldwater had pledged to give American
regional military commanders around the world control over the use of tactical
nuclear weapons, leading the Johnson forces to run the famous Daisy commercial.
A little girl is in a field, picking the pedals off of a daisy, and
miscounting. Suddenly, a grim voice in the background counts down from 10 to 0
and the screen shows an atomic bomb wiping out the scene. Johnson’s voice says:
“We must learn to love one another, and get along with one another, so we shall
certainly perish.” The screen then shows: Vote Johnson, Humphrey, November.”
Domestically, Goldwater had voted against the 1964 Civil Rights Act believing
that it exceeded federal power granted in the constitution, and white
segregationists hailed him as a savior. Goldwater also called for cuts in
federal farm aid, selling the TVA (Tennessee Valley Authority) to the private
sector, and making Social Security voluntary.
President Johnson, though viewed by
many as a southern conservative, had successfully urged Congress to enact the
1964 Civil Rights Act, and now pledged a Great Society that would build on the
New Deal (adding what became Medicare and Medicaid, for example). So Johnson
was viewed by voters as a centrist. Result, a disaster for the
minority Republican Party. Johnson won because of party identification (being
from the majority party), and even the short-term factors favored
him. Goldwater was viewed as too conservative, too
erratic, and too scary. He lost in a landslide, and Democrats won
the Congress in a landslide. They now could fully implement the liberal Great
Society program.
Well, we already talked about the nomination
process, so you have Nixon the Republican, Johnson’s Vice President
Humphrey, and third-party candidate George Wallace (segregationist governor
of Alabama). The Vietnam War was raging (eventually costing the lives of 58,000
young Americans), college students were protesting against it, cities were in
flames in protest against police brutality, radicals were using bombs, police
were being spat on and called PIGS (finally, some cops said, yeah, Pride, Integrity,
Guts), inflation was creeping up, and the crime rate was increasing. Nixon
played on the big issue of dissatisfaction by showing pictures of our military
in combat and youthful rioters and blasted the Democrats for ineffective
leadership. Wallace was very conservative on Vietnam and protesters, once
referring to protesters trying to halt a train carrying munitions by snarling
out: “If one of them Vietnamm protesters, ever lays down in front of my
motorcade… That will be the last motorcade, that Vietnammm protester, every lays
down, IN FRONT OF!” (he had been a boxer, and he looked like a bulldog).
Calling for victory in Vietnam, he attacked the establishment: “There’s not a
dime’s worth of difference between Nixon and Humphrey. They’re pussyfooting on Vietnam.
They’re pussyfooting on crime. They’re just a bunch of PUSSYFOOTERS.” He
pledged to get rid of many federal bureaucrats: “They should toss their brief
cases in the polluted Potomac.”
Though Humphrey had a divided party initially,
since the anti-war candidates had lost the presidential nomination, he placated
them by calling for a halt to American bombing in Vietnam. He also reminded
blue collar workers in the Rust Belt that they might like Wallace’s
conservatism on crime, but he governed a state that was anti-labor union. In
the end, Nixon won a narrow vote margin but a comfortable electoral vote
margin. Wallace carried only the Deep South states like Mississippi. Nixon benefitted
by voter dissatisfaction over the issues of crime,
rioting, radicals, and Vietnam. These short-term issues overcame the
Republican disadvantage of being the minority party; Democrats easily kept
control of Congress.
1972 Presidential Election
Nixon and his Vice
president were renominated easily (V.P. Agnew had been governor of Maryland;
being from a border state, Nixon hoped to help Republicans build on Eisenhower
and Goldwater’s inroads into the Democratic South). Nixon was winding down the
Vietnam War by his policy of Vietnamization, training the South Vietnamese to do
the fighting against the communist North Vietnamese, and gradually withdrawing
our troops. In the presidential election year, he became the first President
since the communist takeover to visit mainland China (his campaign ads showed
him walking the Great Wall). He also signed the first nuclear arms limitation
treaty (SALT1) with the Soviet Union, and visited Moscow. He broke the back of
the North Vietnamese renewed invasion of South Vietnam in the election year by
bombing them heavily, and even mining the harbors of North Vietnam (facing off
against Russian ships carrying munitions to their ally). By this time, the
communist giants of China and the Soviet Union were now independent forces and
even rivals, so Nixon played them against each other. These events all
depicted Nixon as an effective world leader.
George McGovern, the most liberal of
the three major Democratic candidates, had won the Democratic presidential
nomination. He wanted to slash defense spending, immediately pull out of
Vietnam, and stop supporting our NATO allies who were not democratic (Greece,
Turkey). When asked how he would get our POWs back from Vietnam, he said: “I
would crawl on my belly to Hanoi” (the capital of communist North Vietnam). He
was pro-choice (a year before Roe v. Wade), allegedly wanted to decriminalize
marijuana, and promised amnesty to anyone who had fled the military draft by
going to other countries like Canada. The Nixon forces called him the Triple
A candidate: in favor of Acid, Amnesty, and Abortion. McGovern was so
liberal that for the first time, the AFL-CIO refused to endorse the Democratic
presidential candidate (they made no endorsement); their leader George Meany was
anti-communist, since communists in other countries outlawed labor unions.
McGovern couldn’t even get a break with his
Vice-Presidential running mate, Senator Thomas Eagleton of Missouri, a bright,
young, attractive person. When asked by McGovern’s campaign whether he had any
skeleton in his closet, Eagleton said no. Then the press trumpeted that he had
been hospitalized for “nervous exhaustion” and in one case had received
electric shock treatment. The press pack pounced: in a one-on-one interview with
him, one reporter observed: “I see you’re sweating. Can’t take the pressure?”
“No, it’s the lights, the hot lights,” Eagleton responded. McGovern was quoted
as saying: “I’m 1,000 percent behind Thomas Eagleton!” And then Eagleton quit.
It was after the convention, so now the DNC (Democratic National Committee) had
to make the V.P. choice. They ratified McGovern’s new V.P. choice, Sargent
Shriver, a relative of the Kennedy clan. Needless to say, McGovern went
down to a landslide defeat, winning only Massachusetts. He was viewed as
far too liberal. He couldn’t even carry his home state of South
Dakota (even Goldwater had at least carried Arizona, his home, plus some Deep
South states). Nixon, the minority party candidate, even got a huge 60% popular
vote landslide. But the majority Democrats kept control of Congress.
1976 Presidential Election
Well, first Nixon’s Vice President Agnew resigns
after being accused of taking bribes as governor of Maryland, and House
Republican leader Gerald Ford becomes Vice President under the 25th amendment.
Then, Nixon resigns, and Ford becomes the first “unelected” President of the
U.S. Ford seeks a good public servant as Vice President (again, 25th amendment),
so he picks New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller. At first, everyone breathes a
sigh of relief. The high-handed “Imperial Presidents” of Johnson and Nixon are
gone. We get good, decent, honest, Gerry Ford as President. He cooks his own breakfast;
he swims in his modest home’s swimming pool. Being from car country, Michigan,
he jokes: “I’m a Ford, not a Lincoln.” And then he pardons Nixon for any
crime he may have committed as President. Right off, his popularity drops. Ford
though is very open, and even goes to Congress and testifies before a
congressional committee that there was no deal of a pardon in return for his
resignation. Ford testified that he wanted to move the nation forward and end
the nation’s obsession with Watergate. Meanwhile, conservatives were upset
about Ford being too moderate: his Vice President Rockefeller refused to
support Goldwater in 1964; his wife Betty supported the Equal Rights Amendment
for women, and even said that she would merely “counsel’ her daughter if she
had an affair with a married man; Ford kept Henry Kissinger as Secretary of
State, who was the architect of “détente” (better relations) with the Soviet
Union. In short, the Republicans were split, Ford dumped Rockefeller from the
ticket and picked Senator Bob Dole instead (a former RNC Chair), and got a
close renomination. Meanwhile, Democrats nominate a New South racially liberal
governor of Georgia, Jimmy Carter. Carter says: (paraphrased) “I want a
government as good, and decent, and honest, and as filled with love as are the
American people.” He is also a born-again Baptist. He balances the ticket of
being a southerner by picking Minnesota Senator Walter Mondale as Vice
President. So, you have a united, majority Democratic party.
The economy is a little weak-
stagflation, both inflation and unemployment being problems. Carter adds the
two figures, and calls it the “misery index” and blames it on Ford. In the
first debate, Ford blasts Carter as a big spending liberal by adding up the
cost of all of the Democrat’s promises. Suddenly, polls show Ford narrowing the
gap (after the divisive Republican convention, Ford lagged Carter by 30%).
Indeed, as the public increasingly viewed Carter as a “liberal,” his popularity
dropped. And then comes the foreign policy debate. The U.S. was negotiating a
European Security Conference (the Helsinki accords) which was blasted by Reagan
as recognizing Soviet control of East European countries; in reality, it just
recognized post-World War 2 country borders, and pledged that no nation would
change them; also, it investigated human rights abuses behind the Iron Curtain.
When asked about this issue, Ford defended his administration’s support of
these accords by literally misspeaking: “Eastern Europe is not under Soviet
domination, and it never will be under a Ford administration!” The stunned
reporter followed up, “Mr. President, aren’t you aware that there are Soviet
troops in Poland and Czechoslovakia.” Ford retorted: “I don’t think that the
people of Poland think of themselves of being dominated by the Soviet Union.
I’ve been there, I’ve met the people, and they are a fiercely independent
people.” Carter, the Democrat, denounced the Soviet military occupation of the
East European countries. Ford had to spend days right before the election
having to explain himself. “What I meant to say is that the United States will
never recognize as legitimate the Soviet control of Eastern Europe.” Ford’s
comeback came to a halt, and Carter won a close election.
1980 Presidential Election.
Poor Carter.
While urging the pro-American but autocratic government of Iran to respect
human rights and promote more democracy, Islamic militants overthrew the
Iranian leader (the Shah) in November of 1979, and radical students protesting
the U.S. seized the American embassy in Tehran and began to hold 52 American
diplomats and military guards as hostages. The very next month, the
Soviet Union invaded the Asian nation of Afghanistan. In the early
1970s, Afghanistan had acquired a communist government, but rebels opposed this
weak government. The Soviet Union said that they were “invited” by the
legitimate Afghan government to “help” it, but in the process the weak
communist leader was killed, and the Soviets brought in a hard-line Afghan communist
living in Eastern Europe to rule. President Carter announced an embargo on the
sale of American grain to the Soviet Union, and led a worldwide boycott of the
1980 Moscow Olympics. Meanwhile, an oil crisis in the Mideast caused oil prices
to jump, fueling a 13% annual inflation rate. Carter tried to bring
inflation under control by tightening credit, which led to a recession and high
unemployment. Suddenly, the “misery index” had doubled under his
administration.
Reagan was certainly conservative, but unlike
Goldwater he was pragmatic. He chose appointive public servant George Herbert
Walker Bush as his running mate, even though Bush had called his economic plan
(tax cut but increased defense spending) as “voodoo economics” that would raise
the budget deficit. The one debate held showed the major issues of the
campaign. Carter was like a machine, the ice man, spitting out facts and
figures. And he kept blasting Reagan as a man who “has opposed SALT2 and every
arms control agreement in this century.” He blasted Reagan as being opposed to
Social Security and Medicare, and not caring about the elderly people. The
genial and telegenic Reagan simply kept shaking his head and saying, “There you
go again.” “I did not support that particularly health plan because I favored
the Republican Eldercare plan, which would have used the wonders of our free
market to better serve the needs of senior citizens.” While I can’t find exact
quotes, Reagan at one time inferred that: “I did not support the SALT2 treaty
with the Soviet Union, because it didn’t go far enough. It would merely freeze
the existing number of nuclear weapons between our two countries. I want to
eliminate nuclear weapons from the face of the earth.” At the end of the
debate, Reagan’s closing comment was: “Are you better off today than you were four
years ago? Can you buy more food and goods than you were able to four years
ago? If so, vote for President Carter. If not, vote for me, and give my program
a chance.” The weekend before the election President Carter had to announce that the Iranian Parliament was still refusing to release the American hostages, and the day before the election was heavily reported as the one year anniversary of the hostage crisis. What had been a cliff-hanger turned into a landslide for Reagan.
Indeed, Republicans even gained control of the Senate (for six years) for the
first time since 1954. Public dissatisfaction with Carter as a perceived
failed leader was quite evident. Carter today is viewed as a very successful ex-President, as he moved back to his humble home in Plains Georgia, taught Bible School on Sunday, built homes for Habitat for Humanity, celebrated his 77th wedding anniversary, established the Carter Center to promote health and peace around the world, and is still alive at the age of 99 (as of April 2024).
1984 Presidential Election.
Reagan was a great speaker, and a charismatic
leader. His first year, he was shot by someone who wanted to impress an
actress. With the bullet lodged an inch from his heart, he walked into the
emergency room. Seeing his wife Nancy, he quipped, “Golly, honey, I guess I
forgot to duck.” When he was in the operating room, he saw many doctors
hovering over him. He said, “Golly, I hope you are all Republicans.” The head
doctor responded, “Today, Mr. President, we are all Republicans.” Reagan
recovered, and said, “Every day I have left, I owe it to the man upstairs
(God).” When the Democratic U.S. House balked about passing his tax cut, Reagan
went on TV, explained it, and asked the American people to call their
Congressmen and say, “Just give my program a chance.” They did. Our own
Congressman David Bowen, a moderate Democrat, was undecided (Democrats had a
more modest tax cut, but more oriented towards average incomes), but he got so
many phone calls that he backed Reagan’s plan. Reagan also greatly increased
defense spending. After reelection, at an Iceland summit with the Soviet Union
leader, Reagan wasn’t willing to give up his defensive nuclear missile system
(dubbed Star Wars), even to eliminate all offensive nuclear missiles (he feared
a rogue state or terrorists). I saw the dismay in the Soviet leader Gorbachev’s
eyes; I figured he knew that their economy would not be able to keep up with
our military spending, and that we would bankrupt them.
In 1984, the favorable issue was the booming
economy. At the Republican convention, they ran a “Morning in America” film
about the good economy narrated by Reagan and with music by Lee Greenwood, God
Bless the USA, I’m Proud to be an American. As Reagan talked about young
couples moving into their homes, businesses building skyscrapers, the music
played. The film showed the assassination attempt, Reagan visiting China and
our troops in South Korea. An especially emotional scene was the 40-year anniversary
of the Allied landing in Normandy (D-Day) held in Normandy with the now aging
Rangers who had stormed the cliffs. As Reagan read a letter from a daughter of
a Ranger who was dying before the ceremony pledging to go to Normandy and to
see the cliffs that he had stormed, and pointed her out in the crowd, the
President choked up and the Rangers were wiping away tears. The Reagan “feel-good”
campaign then ran parts of this film as campaign ads.
Going up against the Reagan magic was Democrat
Walter Mondale, Carter’s Vice President, and his Vice-Presidential running mate
Geraldine Ferraro, whose voice sounded like that of a schoolmarm. Vice
President Bush in the debate with her kept saying that
specific international issues were “very serious business,” insinuating
that she (a woman) couldn’t handle such work. The next day, campaigning among
longshoremen, Bush joked, “I guess we kicked a little ass last night.” In the
first presidential debate, Reagan messed up his words a little. He kept
stumbling over the word “progressivity”, arguing that his 25% tax cut was
across the board, that everyone got it, and that the rich got more dollars back
because they paid more dollars in taxes. The press pack jumped on his bumbling
word and insinuated that he was too old. At the second debate, Reagan was asked
point blank: “Do you think that you are too old to be President?” He and Mondale
were seated at a desk, and Reagan just smiled, and said, “I don’t think that
age should be an issue in this campaign. I will not make an issue of my
opponent’s relative youth and inexperience.” Even Mondale chuckled at that. The
Gipper was back. On election night, winning 59% of the vote, Reagan swept every
state except Mondale’s home of Minnesota (plus, D.C., of course). Interesting
that after four years of Reagan, Republicans had closed the gap with Democrats
in party identification among likely voters, so beginning in 1984 and
continuing today, there is no majority party in America.
1988 Presidential Election
Compared to the charismatic and broad-shouldered
Reagan, Bush’s high voice made him look like a weaker candidate. Democrats had
chosen Michael Dukakis, the governor of Massachusetts, the son of Greek
immigrants, a great American success story. At first, Dukakis had a nice lead,
and the Bush people realized that they couldn’t build Bush up much, since
people already knew a lot about him. But people didn’t know much about Dukakis,
so the Bush people were going to tell them about him. Why did Governor Dukakis veto
a bill requiring schoolkids to say the Pledge of Allegiance? Insinuation, he’s
not a real American. (Fact, he worried about a religious establishment lawsuit.)
Why is he a card-carrying member of the ACLU (American Civil
Liberties Union), which defends criminals, communists, atheists? Why did he
have a weekend prison furlough program, that released a criminal like Willie
Horton (ad shows picture of bearded African American male) to assault
a young couple? Another ad showed criminals being released through a revolving
door. Why does he oppose the death penalty? While this was a Republican
negative ad campaign, Dukakis did have a problem of being associated with
liberal policies, and he was governor of a very liberal state. Dukakis also
rated defense spending low in his list of priorities, which he countered by
running a silly looking ad that had him riding in a tank with his helmeted head
sticking up from the tank. Sympathetic reporters talking before a debate
realized that Dukakis was being painted as a left-wing extremist. Bernie Shaw gave
Dukakis a chance to change his image by asking him: “Governor Dukakis. If your
wife Kitty was raped and murdered, would you still oppose the death penalty?”
The “iceman” Dukakis was smirking a little, as if he was in some Harvard
debate, and he calmly responded, “Well, yes I would. I don’t think the death
penalty is an effective deterrent to crime. We’ve done other successful things
in Massachusetts, such as…” Bush’s rebuttal was more human: “This is where I
disagree with the governor. I think that some crimes are so horrible, so
heinous, like the killing of a police officer who’s just trying to do his duty,
that they do merit the ultimate penalty.” Bush won the election. He had successfully
used negative ads to paint Dukakis as a liberal. Dukakis was not
able to cope with these attacks, since he really was a liberal, and
made no apology for that. One final observation is that President Reagan
campaigned heavily for Bush. He did not want his mandate and programs to be
reversed by the Democrats.
The Vice-presidential candidates were
interesting. The Democrats had Lloyd Bentsen, a wise, experienced,
knowledgeable, courtly Senator from Texas. Republicans had Dan Quayle, a young
senator from Indiana. Quayle kept being questioned about whether he had enough
experience to be Vice president. At one debate, he was asked three times what he
would do if he suddenly became President. The reporter repeated his first two
responses, “Okay, after you’d say a prayer for the nation, and call a meeting
of your advisors, what else would you do.” A flustered Quayle blurted out, “I
have as much experience as many who have sought the office of Vice President. I
have as much experience as John Kennedy when he became President.” The camera
turns to the courtly Bentsen, who has his head bowed, and is shaking it.
Bentsen’s response, calmly, was: “Senator, I knew John Kennedy, John Kennedy
was a friend of mine. Senator, you’re NO John Kennedy.” Camera turns to Quayle,
who throughout looked like a deer caught in the headlights, and you could see
his Adam’s apple as he was gulping. Then Quayle turns livid, and snaps back,
“That was really uncalled for Senator.” Bentsen calmly replies, “You’re the one
who made the comparison, and I just don’t think it was a very apt one. You and
President Kennedy have very different goals and policies.” The reporter
concluded by saying: “Well, I can see that we’re not taking any hostages at
this debate, so let’s turn to the issue of the hostages being held in the
Mideast. A footnote about VP Quayle- in 2020 when Trump was pressuring VP Pence to send "disputed" electoral votes back to their states, Pence spoke with Quayle, who confirmed Pence's position that the VP's counting of the electoral vote before Congress was more of a mere formality than an independent power.
1992 Presidential Election
Bush was an expert foreign policy leader. He
assembled a worldwide coalition to oppose Iraq’s leader, Saddam Hussein’s
invasion of Kuwait. Assembling a half a million American troops in Saudi
Arabia, the U.S. military defied the scare stories of having ordered 100,000
body bags for American troops facing down the world’s fourth largest military
at the time (Iraq), and defeated the Iraqi military in only four days, losing
146 Americans. As Bush’s popularity soared to 90%, the economy went into a
recession, and unemployment rose. His popularity fell. Democrats nominated
Arkansas governor Bill Clinton, who was chairman of the Democratic
Leadership Council, an organization urging the national Democrats to move more
towards the ideological center. Rebutting any claim that Democrats
were weak on crime, Clinton attended Jesse Jackson’s organization meeting and
criticized the civil rights leader for giving visibility to hip hop artist
Sister Souljah. She had recently said that black people should kill white
people instead of other black people (in apparent reference to recent city
riots). When asked about the death penalty, Clinton quickly pointed out
that his state of Arkansas had the death penalty. “Indeed, I have to fly right
back to Arkansas to sign a death warrant.” Clinton also took a moderate
position on abortion, saying that it should be: “Legal, safe, but rare.” He
also pointed out that welfare should be: “a helping hand, not a way of life.”
Interesting how the personable Bush of 1988 had
become stiff and “Presidential” by 1992. At a town hall debate, a woman in the
audience asked Bush about the recession, and asked him whether he understood
the pain that people were going through. At first, Bush said he didn’t
understand the question (it was a little confusing, since the woman had mentioned
the deficit.) But then he was caught looking at his watch, as if his time was
too valuable to spend with some average voter. The personable Clinton walked up
to the woman, and said, “I feel your pain. I’m from a small town in Arkansas,
Hope. When things are bad, I personally know people who are hurt by the
recession.” In short, Clinton won. He effectively stressed the recession,
the bad economy. Indeed, his campaign slogan was: “It’s the
economy, STUPID!” This contrasted with the great war leader Bush being
aloof from such economic concerns.
1996 Presidential Election
Well, like
under Reagan, America had a booming economy in the 1990s. The youthful Clinton
had a campaign theme, “Building a Bridge to the 21st Century.”
Seemed to be a dig at his aging Republican opponent Bob Dole (who might be more
comfortable building a bridge to the 19th century). Clinton
also effectively talked about his programs that helped children, and families. Dole
appeared to be old, stiff, and mean. He kept talking about himself in the third
person: “Bob Dole will do this; Bob Dole will do that. Bob Dole will be the
next President.” Great war hero, though, paralyzed right arm and shoulder from
the war, yet rose to the top position of Senate Republican Leader. His wife,
Elizabeth, gave a great speech at the Republican convention, talked about her
husband Bob, as she walked close to the audience. But the only thing I remember
about Dole’s campaign in the fall is when he was on a platform campaigning, and
he belt over the wooden railing to shake some supporters’ hands, and the
railing broke, and Dole fell into the street. On his back, his eyes looked up,
and moved back and forth, as he was shaken up. Saturday Night Live had a great
skit of Dole speaking at a podium, and then he falls through the podium, and
getting up he says where’s my pen, where’s my pen, and it is sticking out of
his head.
So Clinton wins, and with the good
economy he also fends off the impeachment vote in the Senate. The
decisive short-term factors were the booming economy. Even some Republican
businessmen said, “Times are good, I have money in my pocket. Don’t change
horses in the middle of the stream.” Also, Bill Clinton is a very people-oriented person.
As Arkansas governor, he shook every hand, remembered every name, attended
every party event and church meeting.
A booming
economy, a popular departing President, political science professors predicted
that Vice President Al Gore would win in a landslide. Yet Bush won by a narrow
electoral vote margin (after a disputed Florida count) while Gore won a slight
national popular vote margin. What happened? The candidates made the
difference. Bush was very personable. As Texas
governor, he had established a good personal relationship with every state
legislator, gave them unique nicknames, and invited them to the Governor’s
mansion. In the debates, he acted a little like a frat boy, someone you’d
like to have a beer with. Al Gore was soooo bright, he was like the Hermione
Granger (of Harry Potter movies) of American politics. He had written a book on
environmentalism, and later even won a Nobel Prize. But he sure had changed
from the home-town boy from Tennessee, after eight years as Vice President. He
gave the impression of being a know-it-all, and he wanted everyone to know it.
In the first debate, Bush would be answering a question, and I would hear this
SIGH. Bush would answer another question, and there would be another SIGH
coming from Al Gore’s microphone. Saturday Night Live even had a skit of
the debate where Bush is asked a question, and the Al Gore character jumps in
and says, “Can I answer that question as if it was addressed to me.” Gore’s
advisors actually showed him the Saturday Night Live skit, to try to make him
more aware of the image he was projecting. But then in the next debate, when
both candidates were seated on stools, while Bush was calmly talking about how
we should stop engaging in nation-building around the world, Gore kept walking
towards him and invading his space. Bush just calmly looked him in the eye. In
short, Gore seemed a little arrogant. Also,
looking at the two parties’ national platforms, it seemed that the Democratic
platform was very liberal. The Republican platform was conservative.
One other
mistake Gore made was not playing up the good economy, and his connection with
President Bill Clinton. He didn’t want to be tarnished with the Clinton sex
scandal. He had been a big supporter of President Clinton in that impeachment
battle. So why wasn’t Bush elected by a greater margin? Well, the short-term
factors today are so strong that last minute events can made a difference. The
weekend before the election, the story broke that Bush had been arrested for a
DUI in his younger days. That reinforced the negatives of the frat boy image.
In his memoirs, Bush explained that he did have a little drinking problem, but
his wife Laura and religion got him to give up alcohol. He also admitted that
he should have publicly disclosed this incident when he was Texas governor, maybe
in conjunctions with a Mothers Against Drunk Driving event, but he didn’t want
to because he had two teenage daughters.
2004 Presidential Election
I remember the
last crisis we had, 9-11. I get to the office, and some faculty are watching a
small TV in the faculty lounge, and I see one of the towers of the World Trade
Center in flames. After it collapses, one of the professors fears that tens of
thousands have died. Next we hear that the Pentagon, itself, has been hit. We
get reports that the President is in Air Force One, flying from one
undisclosed air force base in the heartland to another. All commercial air
operations are halted, planes flying to the U.S. have to land in Canada. They
finally find out that only one hijacked plane is left, pointed toward the White
House or the Capital. Heroic passengers storm the cockpit, and the plane
crashed in a rural area. Bush rejects efforts to stay out of Washington and
returns that night, and addresses the nation. The next day, he visits the World
Trade Center rubble, and tells the rescue workers that “We’re going to get the
people who did this,” as they chant USA, USA. Bush orders the Taliban (Islamic
extremist) government of Afghanistan to expel the terrorist training camps,
they refuse. He publicly warns other nations, “You are either with us, or
you’re with the TERRORISTS.” The next-door nation of Pakistan, which had been
sympathetic to Islamic extremists, quickly folded and backed the U.S. NATO for
the first time in its history invoked the collective security clause, and these
primarily European nations helped the U.S. and joined the war on terrorism. Then
came the anthrax scare, as public officials were receiving letters and
envelopes laced with this poison.
Poor Bush. On 9-11, he had been reading to a
Florida class of elementary school kids, promoting his reading initiative, and
the camera showed an aide coming up to him and whispering in his ear. Bush’s
eyes got big (he probably thought, OH, SHI-). Everyone thought the first plane
that hit the Twin Towers was just a mistaken private plane hit, but when the
second plane hit the other tower, we all knew that it was a coordinated
terrorist attack. Poor Bush, a man opposing “nation-building” and foreign wars
now had to become a War Leader. We supported the Northern Alliance Afghans in
overthrowing the Afghan Taliban government, but Osama Bin Laden was able to
escape into another country. Then, we all looked at Saddam Hussein in Iraq. He
had used poison gas on his own people (Kurds who kept trying to overthrow him),
had helped kill about a half million people by going to war with Iran, kept
shooting at our planes policing a UN no-fly zone in Iraq (where we tried to
keep the dictator from killing his own people), and even tried to assassinate
former President Bush when he was in Kuwait being thanked by a grateful people.
We all thought Iraq still had weapons of mass destruction (WMD) (even National
Geographic magazine had Iraq listed as having chemical, biological, and even
possible nuclear weapons). After 9-11, fearing both Saddam and his possibly
giving such WMDs to terrorist groups, Bush gave him an ultimatum. Get rid of
the weapons, open up to inspections by other nations. Hussein refused, thinking
that the U.S. was a paper tiger. Bush invaded, Hussein was pulled out of a rat
hole, and his own people hung him. As U.S. forces approached Bagdad, the
capital of Iraq, the anti-American dictator of Libya, Gaddafi, immediately got
rid of his WMDs and opened to outside inspections. (But Iraq after the Gulf War
no longer had WMDs. Why didn’t Hussein just say so, and permit inspections? He
wanted to give the impression to other bullies in the region that he was the
biggest bully.)
So we come to 2004. Bush was able to be
re-elected as a war leader, a decisive terrorist fighter. Even one of my
liberal Democratic students said, “Hey, Bush will keep us safe.” In
other words, Bush would put America first, he would protect us. Democrats
nominated liberal Massachusetts Senator John Kerry. Kerry grew up privileged,
but he did volunteer for combat service in Vietnam. But after leaving Vietnam,
he became a prominent peace activist (working with one organization of war
veterans who claimed that American soldiers had committed atrocities against
civilians, even though we later learned that some alleged veterans making the
claims had not served in the Vietnam combat zone, or had never even been in the
military). Kerry had married a wealthy widow, and he was known for enjoying wind surfing.
When talking about their families in one debate, Kerry said, “I married well.
VERY WELL!” When asked why he was critical of Bush’s Iraqi War policies when he
had voted for the war in the Senate, Kerry quipped: “I was for
the war, before I was against it.” Republicans laughed, called him a flip
flopper, and snapped sandals at him. Kerry was also viewed as too
liberal.
2008 Presidential Election
The Financial Crisis hits in Bush’s last year,
the stock market crashes, and it looks like we might be getting into another
Great Depression. Sound familiar? Even Bush, a Republican, supported a
government bailout program to prevent a depression. The Republican nominee John
McCain, a great Vietnam war hero and POW who had refused special treatment as a
prisoner (despite his jailers trying to take advantage of his father being an
Admiral) and got badly beaten by them, immediately suspended his campaign and
asked for a White House meeting with President Bush. McCain knew a lot about
defense and foreign policy, but he was not an expert on financial matters. At
the meeting when asked his opinion, he at first passed, and then said that the
vote on the bailout was difficult for Republicans. In Bush’s memoirs, he said
that Obama graciously responded to the President’s call about the meeting, and
then Bush says that Obama was smart in talking with the Treasury Secretary
about the matter before the meeting. Bush was puzzled by McCain’s confused
rambling at the meeting. In short, Obama was smart,
articulate. He showed the same traits in the televised debates. McCain, on
the other hand, looked befuddled and old. Obama was also charismatic,
winning the Iowa Democratic caucuses in a state that is overwhelmingly
white. Result, Obama wins. The Financial Crisis was a disaster
for Republicans, as the dissatisfaction of the public hurts the party in the
White House. The Republicans had lost control of both houses of Congress two
years earlier, because of disillusionment with the long war in Iraq. In short,
this issue, plus Obama's favorable candidate attributes was decisive.
2012 Presidential Election
Republican Romney was a decent guy. He gave a
lot of money to his Mormon church. He stuck with his wife every day when she
was fighting cancer in the hospital. He worked with business leaders in Utah to
financially save the Salt Lake City Olympics. He had some very appealing
personal characteristics. Romney won the first debate with Obama. Obama looked
very flat, drained. I assumed it just showed how much life the stress of the
Oval Office can drain out of a person. Obama came alive in the second debate,
and Romney ended up just agreeing with most of Obama’s key foreign policies. Romney
failed to exploit the Obama administration’s initial effort to downplay the
attack on our consulate in Libya (which killed our ambassador) as a mere
spontaneous public demonstration against an American pastor’s film attacking
Islam (it was actually a coordinated terrorist attack). Romney also let Obama
get away with downplaying Russia as a threat (“Mitt. The Cold War is over. The
Soviet Union doesn’t even exist anymore.”) He also let Obama get away with
referring to ISIS as a mere JV group (it came to control half of the countries
of Syria and Iraq). Then, to cap off his blunders, Romney was
caught (on cellphone video and audio of a waiter) speaking to a group of wealthy
donors saying: “I need your support. 47% of the people don’t even pay
any income tax. They’re certainly not going to support our campaign
(paraphrased)”. In other words, nearly half of the American people are a bunch
of freeloaders. Coming from a millionaire businessman like Romney.
Obama on the other hand
talked about economic programs that helped the middle class. He had
great empathy. Polls showed that voters thought that he cared more
about “people like me.” Obama won re-election. In both elections, Obama also
did a great job of increasing turnout among African Americans and the young.
Indeed, in 2012, high Democratic turnout gave the Democrats a 6% advantage
among exit poll voters. In short, Obama showed empathy, Romney did not. Romney
made a glaring campaign error in making the 47% remark. Warning to all- assume
anything you say to anyone or anything you put in e-mails or Facebook will
become public knowledge.
2016 Presidential Election
So how can an “outsider” who has never served in
public office (not even been in the military) become President of the United
States? Our polls have shown the continued rise of public distrust in
government since President Kennedy (except under Reagan). Political scientists
bemoaned the growing income and turnout gap between the privileged college
educated and the poor high school or below group. Suddenly, this “outsider”
Trump actually seized a major party’s presidential nomination. Furthermore, Trump had
ignored the campaign pros and pollsters who said to write off the Democratic rust
belt. He campaigned there, talked to the blue-collar workers, learned about
the jobs they did, showed respect for the coal miners of West Virginia, and he
seemed to genuinely feel bad about the decline of many American communities as
businesses and even entire industries moved abroad. His policy of “fair trade”
and “protectionism” actually resembled that of pro-labor Democrats before Bill
Clinton.
Hillary Clinton was so
experienced. First Lady of Arkansas and of the United States. U.S. Senator from
New York. Secretary of State under President Obama. So bright, so accomplished.
How could she lose? Trump was even caught on tape bragging about groping women.
Clinton was so relaxed at a rally of an LGBTQ group that she brushed off some of
Trump rally attenders as a “basket of deplorables… racist,
sexist, homophobic, Islamophobic.” Many voters saw Clinton as elitist,
who catered to the Hollywood crowd, and who had contempt for many average
people. Also, she failed to campaign as much in the Rust Belt as Trump did. She
took them for granted, was complacent. Two of my students, both African
American women campaigning for her in Michigan, said that her campaign was virtually
invisible in African American areas in Detroit. And so, big surprise on
election night. Clinton wins the popular vote. But loses the electoral vote. Trump becomes President! That
just shows how close elections are, as the two parties are basically tied in
partisan identification of the public since 1984.
2020 Presidential Election
We’re out of time, so I'll just ask you, why do you think
that Biden beat Trump in the 2020 Presidential election? The textbook does a
great job of focusing on this latest presidential election in the South. I will
look forward to reading your book reports on the textbook.
In short, Biden’s victory
over Trump in 2020 wasn’t a big surprise. Two indicators of likely presidential
outcome are presidential job rating and the economy, and Trump always had more
disapprovals than approvals of his job rating, plus the economy crashed after
the nationwide coronavirus shutdown (though it later improved). Biden was
pretty universally seen as a nice guy, who showed his concern for American
worries over the coronavirus pandemic by preaching mask wearing and holding socially-distanced car rallies. So weak
Trump job rating, weak economy, scary pandemic, nice guy Democrat helped
elect Biden. Biden won the electoral vote and the national popular vote. His
vice president Kamala Harris made history as the first woman and person of
color as VP. What do you all think is going to happen in 2024? Do you have any predictions??