WEEKS 8-9: PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION PROCESS

The Old era of party bosses dominating a closed system lasted up through 1968:

1) Most delegates were selected in the caucus-convention system, rather than primary elections.

2) Party bosses dominated caucus-convention system, often backed "favorite sons" or kept delegation uncommitted. In the 1952 GOP battle between Eisenhower and conservative Ohio Senator and Presidential son Robert Taft, Eisenhower avoided a 2^nd ballot when Minnesota left favorite son former governor Harold Stassen and backed Ike.

3) There was little participation by average citizen in presidential nomination process.

4) Most delegates were middle-aged and old white males.

5) Delegates generally had a "professional" stylistic orientation, wanted a candidate who would win in November, not just promote an ideological viewpoint. Therefore, Republicans in 1952 nominated war hero Eisenhower over party leader Taft.

6) Conventions were deliberative bodies, often requiring multiple ballots to nominate a president. The last multi-ballot convention was the Democrats in 1952, when party maverick Tennessee Senator Estes Kefauver (who had investigated big city Democratic mayors’ links with organized crime) lost on the 3^rd ballot to reluctant candidate Illinois governor Adlai Stevenson.

7) As late as 1968, Vice President Humphrey was nominated by Democrats without entering any primaries.

(An excellent source of information is The Party's Choice, by William Keech and Donald Matthews, the Brookings Institution, 1977)

After the recent nominations of Trump, Hillary Clinton, and Biden which took place under the new nomination system that we shall soon talk about, some might ask whether our country was better off under the old system. This older nomination system did give us a number of distinguished Presidents. The decent human and hardworking convention organizer Abraham Lincoln won the 1860 Republican nomination on the 3^rd ballot, defeating more well-known Republicans like Senator William Seward of New York and Governor (and former Senator) Salmon Chase of Ohio. Since the Republican convention had no delegates attending from most southern states (only Texas and Virginia sent delegates), the Rules Committee had to first decide what vote was required for being nominated; they decided that a majority was required of the states’ delegates attending the convention. New Jersey governor (and former Princeton University President) Woodrow Wilson won the 1912 Democratic nomination on the 46^th ballot, defeating the Speaker of the House Champ Clark of Missouri. Democrats since 1832 (during Andrew Jackson’s Presidency) had required a two-thirds vote to achieve the presidential nomination, which accounted for the failure of front-runner Clark. New York Governor Franklin D. Roosevelt won the 1932 Democratic nomination on the 4^th ballot, after refusing to oppose the two-thirds rule in order to not alienate the South and its opposition to federal civil rights measures. Roosevelt beat former four-term New York Governor Al Smith (the party’s unsuccessful presidential nominee in 1928) and House Speaker John Nance Garner of Texas (who was unanimously chosen the Vice-Presidential nominee). Roosevelt forces had to beat off challenges in the Credentials Committee to his Senator Huey P. Long headed Louisiana delegation and his Minnesota delegation. The two-thirds rule was dumped at the 1936 Democratic convention, when Roosevelt was re-nominated by acclamation, and to appease the South the Rules Committee now required that delegates would be apportioned among the states not just based on electoral votes but also on a state’s Democratic voting strength. A possible failure of the old nominating system was in the 1912 GOP case, where conservative President William Howard Taft beat progressive former President Theodore Roosevelt, due to the Taft-controlled Republican National Committee and southern delegates opposing every Roosevelt challenge to Taft state delegations. Roosevelt ran as a Third-Party candidate in the general election, splitting the normally Republican vote and electing Democrat Wilson as President. (Source of this paragraph and the next one: Congressional Quarterly’s National Party Conventions 1831-1972).

The last two nominating elections held under this older system were in 1964 and 1968. Conservative Republicans were angry that their favorites had lost every nomination battle since Herbert Hoover in 1932, so at the 1960 convention nominating Eisenhower’s Vice President Richard Nixon (who went on to lose to Democrat Kennedy) conservative Arizona Senator Barry Goldwater gave a speech urging conservatives to “grow up,” “get to work,” and “take this party back” (CQ Conventions book, p. 100). Conservatives in 1964 flooded the old caucus-convention system and won Goldwater the nomination. Moderate liberals GOP Pennsylvania Senator Hugh Scott and Michigan Governor George Romney (Mitt’s father) offered unsuccessful amendments to the Platform Committee’s platform that sought to condemn the infiltration of the party by the Ku Klux Klan and by unnamed “extremist” groups and sought a stronger and specific civil rights plank instead of the more vague plank that backed the 1964 Civil Rights Act but also said discrimination could only be ended by “heart, education, and conscience” at the individual level (CQ book, p. 84). New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller was booed when he warned that radicals opposed to a middle course were trying to take over the party. The very conservative nominated Goldwater ignored more moderate Republicans by proclaiming: “extremist in the defense of liberty is no vice… moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue.” With the moderate and liberal wing of the party refusing to support Goldwater in the general election, Democrat Johnson won in a landslide. The 1968 Democratic convention showed the rise of the left-wing in that party, as Vice President Hubert Humphrey won the nomination (and led among Democratic county chairs and the Democratic public), but anti-Vietnam War liberals were angry. There were riots by anti-war protesters in the streets of Chicago where the convention was held, and in the convention hall Connecticut Senator Abraham Ribicoff when nominating liberal anti-war South Dakota Senator George McGovern said: “with George McGovern as president of the United States, we wouldn’t have to have Gestapo tactics in the streets of Chicago.” (CQ convention book, p. 90). This was in protest to police brutality against the protesters (a famous newspaper picture showed presidential candidate anti-war Minnesota Senator Eugene McCarthy visiting his supporters in the hospital). Illinois delegation leader Chicago Mayor Richard Daley promptly rose to his feet from the first row and tried to shout down the speaker. An anti-war plank was voted down, and anti-war delegates promptly put on black armbands and sang “We Shall Overcome.” (Convention book, CQ, p. 90) Needless to say, Humphrey lost the general election to Republican Nixon. Liberal Democrats were so enraged at the power of the party bosses that they established a party reform committee chaired by George McGovern to reform the delegate selection process, and these reforms were endorsed by the Democratic National Committee.

National Democratic Party Rules Changes.

National Democrats have tried to reform their party to make it more open and "democratic," and have imposed many rules on the state parties. The national Republicans are more supportive of states' rights, so they generally do not require as many rules. However, state laws enacted by Democrats can bind Republicans as well.

1) Affirmative action in representing minorities, especially African-Americans at first, other ethnic groups later; a quota system was imposed for women. Racial discrimination was outlawed in the 1960s, and a 1972 quota for women, blacks, and young adults created many credentials challenges at the convention. Beginning in 1976 Democrats used a more flexible affirmative action system for African-Americans, but used a strict quota for women. Today they require each state party to submit information on the representation of numerous "disadvantaged" groups. By 2016 state parties were required to institute "outreach" programs for historically underrepresented groups based on "race, ethnicity, age, sexual orientation, gender identity or disability." To promote affirmative action in 2016, priority in at-large delegation would be given to "African Americans, Hispanics, Native Americans, Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders and women." An equal division between men and women was required. The party seeks to represent these groups as indicated by their "presence in the Democratic electorate" of the state. In 2020 the “outreach” requirement also included “gender expression” and “economic status.”

2) An Open delegate selection system, open to the public rather than a closed-door process dominated by party bosses. State parties must publicize how, when, and where delegates will be selected, and permit all Democrats to participate in the process. This started in 1972 and continues today.

3) PR, Proportional Representation, replaced the state party’s option of allocating delegates in a winner-take-all system. States must allocate delegates across candidates based on the candidates' vote totals. This started in 1972 and continues today. This is more “democratic” since candidates losing in a state can still win some delegates, as long as they receive at least 15% of the vote.

4) Primaries were used by most states by the 1970s instead of the caucus-convention system. States enacted more primaries to show the national parties and their own voters that they supported an open and democratic process. In 2016, the last competitive conventions in both parties, Democrats had only 14 caucuses (GOP had only 12); all other states used primaries.

5) Closed party system-- only Democrats can select Democratic delegates, started in 1970s, when the national party had held two midterm conventions. Some exemptions existed for open primary states, such as Michigan. By 2016, this national rule defined Democrats as those who "publicly declare their party preference and have that preference publicly recorded," and state parties were entrusted with interpreting that rule. So Mississippi has voter registration, but you don’t have to declare your party when you register; therefore, every four years you can decide which party’s presidential primary you wish to vote in by just going to that party’s desk on primary election day for a ballot.

6) A 3-month window, whereby delegates must be selected from early March to early June. This began in 1980, and it shortens the lengthy campaign season, which in the 1976 Democratic nomination of Jimmy Carter was starting to become a real Marathon (which is a book title about that election). Traditional early states like Iowa and New Hampshire got exemptions. This system had granted many exceptions by 2004, when 9 primaries and 6 caucuses were held in February after the first two traditional early states. By 2008 it had become a 4-month window, from early February to early June, with South Carolina and Nevada joining Iowa and New Hampshire getting exemptions for early contests. In 2008 both Florida and Michigan got in trouble by violating this rule and holding early delegate selection contests. In 2016 it went back to a little over a 3-month window with contests from March 1 till June 7, with four states receiving exemptions for February dates (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina). In 2020 with Covid, 7 states were later than this period. Retaining the 4 early state exemptions permits each of the nation’s four regions a fairly equal early say. In 2024, the DNC ruled that South Carolina would be the first state permitted to select delegates (it had given Biden his first victory four years earlier, plus it has more racial diversity than the other early states).

7) Superdelegates-- 14% of Democratic delegate seats are reserved for public officials and party leaders, starting in 1984. This percentage was 16% in 2020 (Buchanan and Kapeluck textbook, p. 35). Many public officials weren't willing to run against average citizens for delegate positions, and conventions became dominated by amateurs nominating losers like McGovern in 1972 or "outsiders" like Carter in 1976. Ideologically very liberal candidates such as civil rights activist Jesse Jackson (who ran and lost the nomination in 1984 and 1988) and socialist Bernie Sanders (who lost in 2016 and 2020) opposed this party rules change, so for 2020 the DNC (Democratic National Committee) ruled that superdelegates could not vote on the first ballot for President (textbook, p. 35).

8) Super Tuesday, Southern Primary. Southern Democrats got tired of liberal presidential candidates, and most southern states held primaries on the same Tuesday in early March, starting in 1988. This system had temporarily broken down by the early years of the 21st century; in 2004, only 4 states still conducted Super Tuesday on 2nd week of March, while 4 states came earlier and 3 later; in 2008, 4 southern states held primaries on Super Tuesday, 2 went earlier and 5 voted later (all on different days). In 2016, 6 southern states selected delegates on March 1 Super Tuesday; 1 state (South Carolina) voted in February; 4 states voted from March 5 till March 15 (Mississippi was March 8); all southern states selected delegates fairly early therefore, beating half of the American states. In 2020, again 6 southern states voted on March 3 Super Tuesday, South Carolina was 3 days before, Mississippi was March 10, Florida was March 17, and two other states were later due to Covid. Super Tuesday Southern Primary had the unanticipated effort of helping Reagan’s Vice President Bush win the GOP nomination in 1988, though liberal Massachusetts Dukakis won the Democratic nomination (as many African Americans voted for Jesse Jackson, so Tennessee Senator Al Gore got only about one-third of the southern Democratic vote). The Southern Primary worked as southern Democrats desired in 1992, as Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton won the South and the nomination. In 2020, moderate liberal Vice President and former Delaware Senator Joe Biden won a big victory in South Carolina (after losing the first three non-southern states), and then swept the South on the way to the Democratic nomination. Both points 8 and 9 in my notes (Super Tuesday and Front Loading) are not really national Democratic party rules changes, since they are the products of individual state legislative actions, but I list them since they are important and you should be knowledgeable about them.

9) Front Loading-- Front Loading-- most delegates are now selected by the end of March, as states seek to increase their power by holding early contests. In 1996, after Iowa and New Hampshire in February came the New England primaries the first week of March, the Southern primaries the second week, Midwestern primaries the third week, and California and two western primaries the last week. This process benefits well-known frontrunners, like Republican Bob Dole in 1996. In 2000 the process was even more front loaded, with New York, Ohio, and California joining the New England primaries in the first week (Illinois was the sole Midwest primary in the third week and the fourth week no longer existed). In 2004 it was even more front loaded: Iowa caucus was in 3rd week of January, New Hampshire primary was in 4th week; in February were 9 primaries and 6 caucuses; the first week of March had 4 New England states plus 3 large states of California, New York, and Ohio, plus 4 other state contests; the 2nd week of March had 4 southern states, including Mississippi, Florida, and Texas; the rest of March had 4 more contests; April had 2 contests; May had 8 contests; June had 4 contests. The 2008 contest was the most front-loaded yet, with 7 states voting in January, 21 voting on the first Tuesday of February, 9 voting later in February, with the remainder voting in later months; no regional patterns existed, though South Carolina now joined the earliest states, right after Iowa and New Hampshire. In the 2012 GOP nomination battle, 4 states voted in January and 7 voted in February, with most states voting in March, and 21 voting in April, May, or June, as the party sought to cut back a little on the front-loading process. The process remained pretty front loaded in 2016: 4 voted in February; 28 in March; 18 in April, May, and June. In 2020 despite Covid the front loading persisted, as 4 states voted in February, 23 in March, and 23 in April thru August. The textbook has a nice sequential listing of the states on page 36. The table on page 39 of the textbook shows how Biden swept all of the southern states’ primaries; the gray cells indicate which of the candidates had dropped out before that state was even able to vote. (It would have been nice to list the states in chronological order; none of the candidates had dropped out for the first, South Carolina primary; by March 3 Super Tuesday, three of the candidates had dropped out; Mississippi’s March 10 primary had five drop out; the rescheduled Georgia and Louisiana primaries had only Biden remaining on the ballot, as even Bernie Sanders had quit).

So we now turn to a more in-depth look at the parties’ presidential nomination battles from 1972 to the present, and how these rules have affected the process and outcomes.

The 1972 Democratic nomination to face incumbent President Nixon was a real free-for-all. Defeated Vice Presidential nominee Maine Senator Ed Muskie came in a weak 1^st in New Hampshire after crying (literally) about a New Hampshire newspaper attacking his wife, and anti-war liberal George McGovern came in a strong second. With strong liberal backing, McGovern won the early state of Wisconsin due to its large college student population and due to angry blue-collar workers, and then won the late California primary. Losing presidential nominee Humphrey attacked McGovern for his planned defense budget cuts which would hurt the California aerospace industry. McGovern was nominated, even though he was the most liberal of the three major candidates remaining (George Wallace was running also, and he even won Michigan). The convention was dominated by ideological liberals, partly because of the party rules changes such as affirmative action. Democrats lost to Nixon in a landslide. As a prelude to today’s bitter ideological polarization between the parties, this process began with the nomination of Republican Goldwater in 1964 and the liberal McGovern in 1972.

The 1976 Democratic nomination was won by the moderate liberal former Georgia governor Jimmy Carter, who campaigned heavily in and won the first two states of Iowa and New Hampshire, creating a big media coverage boost. The more liberal northern candidates split up the liberal votes in these states. Carter then confronted and beat Wallace in the South by turning Wallace’s message of “Send them a message” on its head by saying, “Send them a President” (Carter, a fellow southerner, from Georgia). After Carter won Ohio, the party professionals unified behind him as a November winner. Carter wisely unified the ticket by picking a Minnesota liberal, pro-union and pro-civil rights Senator, Walter Mondale as his Vice President.

The 1976 Republican nomination was undecided right up to the convention. President Ford (replacing resigned President Nixon) angered conservatives by pursuing détente (good relations) with the Soviet Union and having a First Lady Betty who supported choice if her daughter was ever pregnant, so former two-term California governor Ronald Reagan entered the contest. Each week Ford and Reagan traded victories, largely because Reagan won most of the more conservative South and West, and Ford won the more liberal (for the Republican Party) Northeast and Midwest states. The uncommitted delegates would be decisive, and many were in the Northeast. At the convention, Reagan announced before the voting that he would pick liberal Republican Senator Richard Schweiker of Pennsylvania as his running mate. When that did not change any minds, he tried to change the party rules to require that all presidential candidates (including Ford, who had just dumped his Vice President Nelson Rockefeller) disclose their VP pick before the balloting. The convention voted down Reagan’s proposed rules change. The uncommitted ended up voting for Ford, as they feared that Reagan was too conservative (like Goldwater), and would lose in November. Ford picked a good party loyalist Senator Bob Dole of Kansas as his running mate, and went on to narrowly lose to Carter.

The 1980 Democratic nomination saw President Carter hurt by a recession and high unemployment and 13% annual inflation, so liberal leader Senator Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts challenged him and fought for the lower income. The Iranian hostage situation in November 1979 and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan the next month saw Americans rally behind their President, so Carter won the early and middle states. But as time went on and these problems persisted, Carter’s popularity fell, so Kennedy won the later contests. Though Carter won renomination, he let the convention vote for some of Kennedy’s liberal economic platform planks, and let Kennedy give a stirring speech about the Kennedy family’s championing of the poor. When Kennedy closed with the phrase: “For me, a few hours ago, this campaign came to an end,” you could hear his delegates shouting out NO. When Kennedy then concluded with: “For all those whose cares have been our concern, the work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die,” you could see the tears streaming down the faces of the Kennedy delegates (Carter’s camp had graciously let the Kennedy supporters go to the front of the convention hall). On the final day of the convention when Carter gave his acceptance speech, the media focused on whether Kennedy would come to the podium at the end with other Democratic leaders to congratulate Carter. Kennedy finally did, he left the party early, decided to go back and punched Carter in the shoulder, so Carter raised his fist in party-unity victory mode; the media just said, “Kennedy didn’t look so happy to me.” Needless to say, Carter lost in a landslide (about one-third of Kennedy primary voters ended up voting Republican).

The 1980 Republican nomination was a surprising battle, as front runner Ronald Reagan stumbled by refusing to debate in Iowa, with Senator Bob Dole ridiculing him by saying, “I oppose President Carter’s embargo on the sale of grain to the Soviet Union, which just hurts the farmers of Iowa.” Pointing to an empty chair, Dole quipped, “I’d like to ask Mr. Reagan his position on this issue, but as you can see he isn’t here.” (paraphrased). The Iowa winner was good public servant George Herbert Walker Bush (former UN Ambassador, China envoy, CIA chief). Public opinion is so uninformed and fluid at the start of a presidential nomination that Bush’s popularity among Republican party identifiers shot up to a virtual tie with Reagan. Reagan promptly fired his campaign chief, who had told him that front-runners do not debate, and Reagan promptly accepted every debate offer in New Hampshire. One debate by a newspaper had only invited the two front-runners, so Reagan had to pay for the debate since the FEC considered excluding the other candidates to be an unfair newspaper contribution to only two candidates. However, the other candidates showed up anyway, and when the newspaper moderator told them that they could not participate but could stand in the hall and take questions from the press after the debate, Reagan protested their exclusion. Finally, the newspaper moderator said, “Would you please cut off Mr. Reagan’s microphone.” The audience went OOOOHHHH, and Reagan stood up, and said, “Mr. Green, I paid for this microphone.” He then walked over to the candidates standing against the wall, shook each of their hands, and said, “Hey, I tried to let you debate, but George Bush wouldn’t let you.” The candidates were livid against Bush, claiming that he wanted to create the image that there were only two candidates in the race. Angry candidates charged that “They stiffed us” and said, “I’ll support Bush if he is the nominee, but I hope to do everything I can to make sure that he isn’t the nominee” (paraphrased). Reagan won in New Hampshire, and the bandwagon was reversed, and Reagan went on to win the nomination. Still reeling from the charge that he was too conservative to win in November, Reagan at the convention flirted with the idea of naming former President Ford as his VP running mate, but the Ford camp wanted to control such powerful cabinet positions as Secretary of Defense and Secretary of State, so Reagan united the party by picking Bush as his running mate.

The 1984 Democratic convention saw front runner former Vice President Walter Mondale come in a weak 1^st in Iowa and then lose New Hampshire to photogenic (looked like President Kennedy) Colorado Senator Gary Hart who called for New Ideas (like a larger number of smaller ships in the Navy). Mondale played on a Wendy’s commercial with a little ole lady making fun of competitors by saying, “Where’s the beef?” Mondale used the same line by claiming in a seated debate that Hart didn’t have any new ideas (Hart’s proposals often came from proposed congressional bills.), and with the backing of party organization regulars in the South Mondale came back to win Alabama and Georgia. Jesse Jackson won the African American vote. Mondale won the nomination, picked a woman (New York congresswoman Geraldine Ferraro) as VP, and pledged “I will raise your taxes” to deal with Reagan’s budget deficit. He went down to defeat, of course.

The 1988 Democratic convention saw Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis (the son of Greek immigrants) win the neighboring state of New Hampshire, and get a nice media coverage boost. Tennessee Senator Al Gore had expected to win the South, but the Dukakis media boost helped him in large Rim South states like Florida and Texas, and Jesse Jackson won the black vote, so Gore was only able to win about one-third of the southern Democratic vote. So Gore dropped out of the race, and Dukakis won the nomination as the more electable candidate compared to the liberal Jesse Jackson. Dukakis unified the party by picking Texas Senator Lloyd Bentsen, a respected and experienced moderate as his VP, but still went down to defeat.

The 1988 Republican convention saw a real battle between Vice President Bush and long-time partisan and Senator, Bob Dole of Kansas. Dole won in his neighboring state of Iowa, so Bush ran a negative campaign against him and won in New Hampshire (Dole ended up snarling at Bush, “Stop lying about my record.”) Then the race turned to the South, and the South liked Bush because he was the popular Reagan’s Vice President (and he had attended party fundraisers in southern states), so Bush won the South and won the nomination. He picked the handsome Senator Dan Quayle of Indiana, hoping to get the women vote.

The 1992 Democratic convention saw liberal Iowa Senator Tom Harkin win his home state of Iowa, and liberal former Massachusetts Senator Paul Tsongas win his neighboring state of New Hampshire, so the first real test was the South. And long-time Arkansas governor Bill Clinton swept his native South and won the nomination by beating remaining liberal former California governor Jerry Brown. Clinton defied ticket-balancing convention wisdom and picked fellow southerner Al Gore as VP, probably because he felt he was well qualified to be President if necessary. Clinton and Gore were so confident that they and their spouses danced at the convention’s conclusion, and then campaigned together on a campaign bus. They made Bush, like Carter and Ford, a one term President.

The 1996 Republican convention battle saw Bob Dole as a long-time party leader win the nomination (“It’s Bob Dole’s turn.” He had lost the nomination to Reagan and then to Bush.). Dole lost New Hampshire to conservative Pat Buchanan, and lost two other states to businessman Steve Forbes, but ended up winning 39 primaries, including the liberal New England and the conservative Southern primaries. Dole picked Congressman Jack Kemp as VP, and went on to defeat in November.

The 2000 Democratic nomination battle was won by Vice President Al Gore, who was a Democratic party loyalist who had led a rally for President Clinton at the White House after he had been impeached by the GOP-controlled House. Gore beat the liberal Senator Bill Bradley from New Jersey, whose major issue was backing a national health care plan. The front-runner and more centrist Gore won every primary with Bradley only posting a strong second place showing in New Hampshire. Gore’s VP pick was Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, a moderate liberal Jew associated with the centrist Democratic Leadership Council of Bill Clinton’s (six years later, Lieberman was re-elected to the Senate as an Independent, as Democrats nominated a more liberal senate candidate).

The 2000 Republican nomination battle saw front runner and party loyalist (who had attended party fundraisers in other states) Texas governor George W. Bush win Iowa, but Arizona Senator and maverick John McCain win New Hampshire. McCain played to the liberal press by criticizing the Religious Right, so he ended up winning only the more liberal northeastern states on Titanic Super Tuesday, while Bush won the other regions. Bush picked Dick Cheney as his VP.

The 2004 Democratic nomination was won by John Kerry, a party loyalist, 20-year Senate veteran from Massachusetts, backed by liberal leader Ted Kennedy. Early front-runner former Vermont governor Howard Dean, the anti-war candidate, wins only his home state, after he screams after losing Iowa. Senator Edwards of North Carolina wins only his home state, and former general Wesley Clark wins only Oklahoma. Kerry picks Edwards as his VP.

The 2008 Democratic saw frontrunner Hillary Clinton stumbling in the early state of Iowa, losing to Barack Obama, but she comes back in New Hampshire. Obama wins in early southern state of South Carolina with strong black support, and Clinton comes back in the non-binding Florida race. Obama's consequent bandwagon effect ties him with Clinton in the polls, upsetting her expectation to wrap up nomination on Super Tuesday, which they end up splitting. Obama then wins 9 straight caucus-convention contests, which he had more fully contested than she had, thereby taking a delegate lead. They split the remainder of the contests, the superdelegates move towards Obama as a winning candidate, and he wraps up the nomination. Obama's charisma, inspirational speaking ability, and focus on change are an unexpected campaign event for the frontrunner, as was Clinton's overconfidence and failure to fully contest states immediately after Super Tuesday. Obama picks longtime Senator from Delaware Joe Biden as his VP.

The 2008 Republican nomination battle was won by John McCain, who was a senator for 22 years, runner up for GOP presidential nomination eight year earlier, and was a perceived party loyalist by strongly backing Bush's Iraqi war surge strategy. McCain won prominent early primaries in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida. Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee won Iowa, and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney won four of the lesser-known early contests. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (the 9-11 leader) withdrew after losing Florida, which he had concentrated on. On Super Tuesday, McCain won 9 of the primaries, Huckabee 4, and Romney only 2 (he did win 5 caucuses), so McCain wraps up the nomination. He picks Alaska governor Sarah Palin as VP.

The 2012 Republican nomination was won by former Massachusetts Governor and former social issues moderate Mitt Romney, who was the frontrunner with money and organization, and was the more centrist candidate. Conservatives former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum had less money and failed to contest all of the delegate slots. Gingrich wins only his home state of Georgia and a neighboring southern state, while Santorum is initially boosted by winning Iowa (while Romney wins New Hampshire and Florida) and 3 of the 7 states voting in February. Santorum wins only 3 states on Super Tuesday versus 7 for Romney, but Santorum then wins 3 Deep South states. Romney wins all three states in early April (including Wisconsin and Maryland), and Santorum withdraws. Romney picked Representative Paul Ryan, an expert on economics, as his VP.

The 2016 Democratic nomination saw Hillary Clinton start as the front-runner, being a party leader as former First Lady, former U.S. Senator from New York, and the former Secretary of State under Obama (who had defeated her for the nomination 8 years earlier). Clinton won Iowa, but Vermont socialist Senator Bernie Sanders upset her in New Hampshire, forcing Clinton to come back and win in Nevada and South Carolina. On Super Tuesday March 1, Clinton won all 6 of the southern states, plus Massachusetts; Sanders won only 4 states. These early victories plus a 90% edge among Super Delegates made the difference for Clinton, since Sanders won half of the remaining states that came after March 1. Clinton picks Virginia Senator Tim Kaine as her VP.

The 2016 Republican nomination battle saw Donald Trump himself being an unexpected event, as he skillfully played the role of an angry outsider and labelled his opponents as lying Ted, little Marco, and low-energy Jeb Bush. Conservative Texas Senator Ted Cruz won Iowa, but Trump won the other three early states. Trump won 7 states on Super Tuesday (he swept the South except for Texas), Cruz won 4 and Florida Senator Marco Rubio only 1. Cruz won 6 later states, but none were large states, and Ohio Governor John Kasich won only one state (his home). Trump swept the rest, including Rubio's home state of Florida. Trump picks Indiana governor Mike Pence as his VP.

The 2020 Democratic nomination was a real free for all, ultimately won by former Delaware Senator and Vice President Joe Biden. Socialist Bernie Sanders narrowly wins Iowa and New Hampshire with gay South Bend Indiana mayor Pete Buttigieg a close second, before Sanders easily won Nevada. As the text discusses, Biden won a key endorsement (an unexpected campaign event) from House Majority Whip and African American Congressman James Clyburn of South Carolina, and Biden won easily there. (Biden had worshiped at the historic South Carolina black church after his son Beau died of brain cancer, as he was inspired by the congregation’s Christian forgiveness of the white racist who shot and killed nine churchgoers.) The South Carolina victory saved Biden and created a bandwagon effect that led to Biden winning 10 states on Super Tuesday to only 4 for Sanders; 6 of Biden’s wins came in Southern states. Indeed, Biden ended up winning every southern state (see text, p. 39). After Super Tuesday, Biden swept every other state except for Sanders’ win in North Dakota.

Who tends to wins the major parties’ presidential nominations (an important summary):

1) Incumbent Presidents- Usually Presidents are easily renominated, such as Clinton in 1996, Reagan in 1984, Bush in 2004, and Obama in 2012. But even when facing economic and international problems such as Carter did in 1980, or a strong challenger such as Ford's in 1976, they still get renominated. So did Hoover during the Great Depression in 1932, and Trump in the pandemic year of 2020. Incumbents are such likely nomination winners that I haven’t even included most of their renomination years in the previous discussion, as omitted contests such as President Bush’s renomination in 1992 saw only token opposition (in 1992 Pat Buchanan came in a strong second in New Hampshire, and white supremacist David Duke lost every state including the South).

2) Vice-Presidents- Vice-Presidents have built up political IOU's by speaking to party groups across the nation and backing political candidates. Vice Presidents nominated included both parties in 1968 (Nixon had been Eisenhower's VP), Mondale in 1984 (Carter's VP), Bush in 1988, Dole in 1996 (Ford's VP choice in 1976), Gore in 2000, and Biden in 2020.

3) It pays to be centrist (moderate for your party)- Pat Buchanan was too extreme compared to Bob Dole in 1996; Carter in 1976 was a southern moderate compared to his liberal opponents, as was "New Democrat" Clinton; Ford won the uncommitted delegates in 1976 who feared Reagan was too conservative; Humphrey beat the liberal reformers in 1968. Gore was more moderate than Bradley in 2000. Hillary Clinton was a liberal but tough on Russia, while opponent Bernie Sanders was a "socialist," so Clinton won in 2016. Trump was less conservative than Ted Cruz, as he backed trade wars, an isolationist America First foreign policy, and was opposed by the conservative magazine National Review. Biden in 2020 was more moderate than his opponents like Sanders. Exceptions to this rule were McGovern in 1972 and Reagan in 1980.

4) Being a party loyalist helps. Johnson's loyal Vice President and Vietnam policy supporter Humphrey won in 1968, as did Republican campaigner in 1964 and in the 1966 congressional midterms Richard Nixon. Vice President Mondale in 1984 had a history of backing labor unions and civil rights, while Senate Republican Leader Dole in 1996 won. Both nominees in 2000 were more in the mainstream of their parties than their chief opponents, and had campaigned for party candidates. McCain in 2008 was loyal to Republican President Bush's Iraqi war, had come in second in 2000 presidential nomination battle, and had been a senator for 22 years. Hillary Clinton was former First Lady, former New York Senator, and former Secretary of State, so she won nomination in 2016. Exceptions to this rule are liberal McGovern in 1972, outsider Carter in 1976, first term Senator Obama in 2008, and businessman Trump in 2016.

5) Being the front-runner helps, particularly in the age of front-loading. In 2000, Gore won every primary, and Bush dominated Titanic Tuesday after McCain split the early states with him. In 1996 Dole's national organization swept his opponents' scattered victories. Frontrunners Bush in 1988, Mondale in 1984, and Reagan in 1980 came back from early defeats. Hillary Clinton was the clear front-runner in 2016. Exceptions include unknowns Carter nominated in 1976 and McGovern in 1972, and Obama nominated in 2008.

6) Winning early states can create a bandwagon, increasing fundraising and name identification. Anti-war McGovern in 1972 won a strong second place in New Hampshire; Carter's victories in Iowa and New Hampshire caused a massive media coverage bandwagon; Dukakis won his home state area of New Hampshire in 1988. Obama won early states of Iowa and South Carolina in 2008, slashing the frontrunner's poll lead nationally, and upsetting her strategy to wrap up the nomination with a sweep on Super Tuesday. McCain in 2008 won three early primaries of New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida. Exceptions are numerous, with Dole in 1996, Bush in 1988, Mondale in 1984, and Reagan in 1980 losing some early states but reversing the bandwagon effect by winning subsequent states.

7) The South is important, due to Super Tuesday. Mondale in 1984 stopped Hart’s bandwagon in the South; Bush, being Reagan's VP, won the South in 1988; Clinton swept his native South in 1992. Hillary Clinton won every southern state in 2016, giving her the lead over Sanders. Biden swept the South in 2020 and began a near sweep of remaining states. The frontloading effect generally beginning in 1996 somewhat reduces the South's importance, however.

8) Unexpected events can be a killer. Kennedy led Carter in 1979, but international crises caused voters to rally behind the President, and Carter was renominated. Bush lost New Hampshire after his Iowa victory in 1980, because he refused to debate all of the candidates, and after that it was all downhill. In 2004, Dean's "yell" after losing Iowa torpedoed his campaign. In 2008, Obama's charisma, inspirational speaking ability, and adroit focus on change successfully unseated frontrunner Hillary Clinton, while Clinton's overconfidence in failing to fully contest the states immediately after Super Tuesday was disastrous. Trump in 2016 was a reality TV star who talked like common people, and effectively appealed to voter distrust of politics by being an "outsider."