2014 MISSISSIPPI POLL ON-LINE RESULTS (updated December 16, 2014 with certified election results):
This telephone survey was conducted by the Survey Research Laboratory (SRL) of the Social Science Research Center at Mississippi State University with facilities that permit simultaneous use of two large rooms of telephones, though the Mississippi Poll only employed at most eleven telephone stations at a time. The SSRC is directed by Dr. Arthur Cosby, and the SRL is directed by Dr. John Edwards. A random sampling technique was used to select the household phone numbers and the cell phone numbers, and the adult 18 years of age and older who first answered the phone was interviewed. Up to ten callbacks were made, and calls were made from 5:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m. on weeknights, from 10:00 a.m. to 2:00 p.m. on Saturdays and 1PM to 5PM on Sundays. A Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing System (CATI) was used to collect the data. Twenty undergraduate students in Dr. Shaffer’s Political Analysis class made the phone calls. Three hundred and fifty adult Mississippi residents were interviewed from April 7-30, 2014. The sampling frame included both cell phones as well as household phones, and interviewers used manual dialing. The response rate was 31% (completions as a percentage of both completions and refusals). With 350 people surveyed, the sample error for the full sample was plus or minus 5.4%, which means that if every Mississippi resident had been interviewed, the results could differ from those reported here by as much as 5.4%. Some analyses examine only "likely voters" in the November general election, derived from a likely voter additive scale of the campaign interest, intent to vote in November, and knowledge of one’s U.S. Representative question items; sample error for the likely voters in the general election sample was plus or minus 5.8%. In order to achieve a representative sample, the dataset was adjusted or weighted by selected demographic characteristics to adequately represent the diversity of the entire population, as well as by selection probabilities reflecting those adults having both cell phones and landlines and of multi-adult households. The Director of the Survey was Dr. Stephen Shaffer in the MSU Political Science Department, who also produced this on-line summary of the results. SRL Director John Edwards was of invaluable assistance in the sophisticated methodology of incorporating cell phones in the sampling frame, as well as of accurately providing the weighting framework, and of providing the impressive facilities of the SRL for the student interviewers. As with all of the Mississippi Polls, the MSU IRB approved the project as protecting human subjects, those selected for interviewing.
CERTIFIED SENATE GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS:
Note that the April poll had a 21.5% gap between the two major party nominees. The actual election result had a 22.0% gap between them, as shown below.
SENATE GENERAL ELECTION COMPETITIVENESS DEPENDS ON THE CANDIDATES
Question Wording: If the general election for United States Senator was held today, and if the candidates were
Travis Childers the Democrat, Thad Cochran the
Republican, and Shawn O’Hara the Reform candidate, whom would you
vote for? Childers, Cochran, or O’Hara? (Asked of 301 likely voters in the general election)
Childers = 27.2%
Cochran = 48.7%
O’Hara = 7.9%
Undecided = 16.2%
Source: 2014 Mississippi Poll, conducted April 7-30.
|
Vote |
Strong Democrats |
Weak Democrats |
Independent Democrats |
Pure Independents |
Independent Republicans |
Weak Republicans |
Strong Republicans |
|
Childers |
69% |
47% |
44% |
24% |
15% |
2% |
2% |
|
Cochran |
10% |
21% |
30% |
47% |
55% |
82% |
86% |
|
O’Hara |
5% |
12% |
19% |
0% |
13% |
5% |
3% |
|
Undecided |
16% |
20% |
7% |
29% |
17% |
11% |
9% |
|
Sample size |
(58) |
(34) |
(27) |
(17) |
(40) |
(45) |
(59) |
Source:
2014 Mississippi Poll, conducted April 7-30, among 301 likely voters.
Question Wording: If the candidates for U.S. Senator were Travis Childers the Democrat, Chris
McDaniel the Republican, and Shawn O’Hara the Reform candidate, whom would you
vote for? Childers, McDaniel, or O’Hara? (Asked of 301
likely voters in the general election)
Childers = 31.3%
McDaniel = 32.4%
O’Hara = 8.4%
Undecided = 27.9%
Source: 2014 Mississippi Poll, conducted April 7-30.
|
Vote |
Strong Democrats |
Weak Democrats |
Independent
Democrats |
Pure
Independents |
Independent
Republicans |
Weak Republicans |
Strong
Republicans |
|
Childers |
75% |
58% |
50% |
28% |
12% |
4% |
5% |
|
McDaniel |
2% |
15% |
14% |
0% |
43% |
67% |
61% |
|
O’Hara |
3% |
6% |
14% |
28% |
21% |
4% |
2% |
|
Undecided |
20% |
21% |
22% |
44% |
24% |
25% |
32% |
|
Sample size |
(59) |
(33) |
(28) |
(18) |
(42) |
(45) |
(59) |
Source:
2014 Mississippi Poll, conducted April 7-30, among 301 likely voters.
COCHRAN HAD A BIG LEAD IN APRIL
Question Wording: If the U.S. Senate Republican primary
election was held today, and the candidates were Thad Cochran, Chris McDaniel, and
Thomas Carey, whom would you vote for?
Cochran, McDaniel, or Carey? Or wouldn’t you vote in the Republican
primary? (Asked
of a small sample of 178 likely voters in the Republican primary election,
which excluded strong and weak Democrats and those indicating they wouldn’t
vote in the GOP primary; sample error was plus or minus 7.7%)
Cochran = 56.0%
McDaniel = 15.9%
Carey =
4.6%
Undecided = 23.5%
Source: 2014 Mississippi Poll, conducted April 7-30 among a small sample of likely voters.
Validity Problem Note: Other polls reported in RealClearPolitics.com website indicated that between April and June a 20 point gap between the candidates had narrowed to a virtual tie. The April Mississippi Poll had forecasted an even greater gap six weeks before the election, a gap which was outside of the sample error margin. The 2014 Mississippi Poll asked respondents 65 different questions, and the Senate primary question was the only one that apparently provided an inaccurate image of Mississippians. Possible reasons include: 1) The sample size for subsets of a statewide poll are too small, as was also the case in the inaccurate projection of 1982 U.S. House contest in the 2nd district Delta; 2) The poll was obviously outdated, as the political situation was changing too rapidly, as also occurred in the 1988 U.S. Senate general election when Dowdy closed much of a big Trent Lott lead; 3) Need to ask more than one question on a primary contest for more accurate assessments, which would necessitate cutting other survey questions used by students in academic research, to prevent a long questionnaire from becoming even longer; 4) Other possibilities include: some conservative McDaniel supporters declining to participate in the poll after a “public” university’s name is mentioned as the sponsor; inclusion of Cochran job performance question before the vote question, and absence of a comparable McDaniel job performance question, may have conveyed image of only one “viable” candidate to some respondents.
Relating primary vote to other political factors. 1) McDaniel
was strongest among “very conservative” voters. 2) McDaniel’s support was
strongest among those rating Senator Cochran’s job performance as poor, and
McDaniel’s support was second strongest among those rating Cochran’s
performance as fair. 3) Cochran’s support was strongest among those who viewed
him as being either very or somewhat conservative. As such, McDaniel may have
been able to close the gap with Cochran by influencing these three factors in
the last six weeks of the campaign: getting more conservative people to the
polls; attacking Cochran’s performance in office; painting Cochran as not being
a conservative.
HILLARY CLINTON IS A STRONG PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE
Question Wording: If the presidential election was held today, and the candidates
were former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton the Democrat, and New Jersey
Governor Chris Christie the Republican, whom would you vote for? Clinton or
Christie? (Asked of 301
likely voters in a general election)
Clinton = 49.5%
Christie = 39.5%
Undecided = 11.0%
Source: 2014 Mississippi Poll.
DEMOCRATS SHOW STRONG LOYALTY TO HILLARY CLINTON
|
Vote Choice |
Strong Democrats |
Weak Democrats |
Independent Democrats |
Pure Independents |
Independent Republicans |
Weak Republicans |
Strong Republicans |
|
Clinton |
95% |
88% |
82% |
59% |
15% |
18% |
7% |
|
Christie |
0% |
6% |
7% |
24% |
73% |
64% |
80% |
|
Undecided |
5% |
6% |
11% |
17% |
12% |
18% |
13% |
Note: among 301 likely voters.
Source: 2014 Mississippi Poll.
ONLY OBAMA IS VIEWED AS A LIBERAL
Asked of 350 adult Mississippi residents: "Please label
the following political figures as very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate or
middle of the road, somewhat conservative, or very conservative... President
Barack Obama, Republican Chris Christie, Senator Thad Cochran, Governor Phil
Bryant, and Attorney General Jim Hood." The last row indicates people’s
responses to the following question: "What about your political beliefs?
Do you consider yourself: very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate or middle of
the road, somewhat conservative, or very conservative?"
|
|
VERY LIBERAL |
SOMEWHAT LIBERAL |
MODERATE |
SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE |
VERY CONSERVATIVE |
DON’T KNOW |
|
Barack
Obama |
45% |
18% |
12% |
6% |
8% |
11% |
|
Chris Christie |
3% |
13% |
20% |
27% |
9% |
28% |
|
Thad Cochran |
5% |
11% |
15% |
28% |
17% |
24% |
|
Phil Bryant |
2% |
10% |
14% |
28% |
25% |
21% |
|
Jim Hood |
4% |
15% |
22% |
18% |
7% |
34% |
|
Residents' Own Views |
4% |
14% |
27% |
28% |
21% |
6% |
Note: Percentages total 100% across each row.
Source: 2014 Mississippi Poll.
BRYANT’S JOB PERFORMANCE RATING REMAINS HIGH
"I'm going to ask you to rate the job performance of a few political figures and institutions. Rate each of them as excellent, good, fair, or poor. What about Governor …?" (Note: asked of 301 likely voters in 2014; results from previous governors included)
|
|
Excellent |
Good |
Fair |
Poor |
No Opinion |
|
Favorable Rating (E+G)/ (E+G+F+P) |
|
Winter |
|||||||
|
1981 |
12% |
46% |
34% |
6% |
2% |
59% |
|
|
1982 |
15% |
43% |
32% |
8% |
2% |
59% |
|
|
Allain |
|||||||
|
1984 |
6% |
33% |
44% |
9% |
8% |
42% |
|
|
1986 |
10% |
39% |
40% |
11% |
0% |
49% |
|
|
Mabus |
|||||||
|
1988 |
14% |
39% |
29% |
4% |
14% |
62% |
|
|
1990 |
17% |
31% |
31% |
20% |
1% |
48% |
|
|
Fordice |
|||||||
|
1992 |
8% |
36% |
21% |
22% |
13% |
51% |
|
|
1994 |
19% |
36% |
32% |
12% |
1% |
56% |
|
|
1996 |
17% |
34% |
29% |
16% |
4% |
53% |
|
|
1998 |
11% |
44% |
32% |
9% |
4% |
57% |
|
|
1999 |
11% |
34% |
36% |
13% |
6% |
48% |
|
|
Musgrove |
|||||||
|
2000 |
14% |
39% |
18% |
6% |
23% |
69% |
|
|
2002 |
9% |
32% |
35% |
18% |
6% |
44% |
|
|
Barbour |
|||||||
|
2004 |
12% |
28% |
25% |
12% |
23% |
52% |
|
|
2006 |
16% |
32% |
32% |
16% |
4% |
50% |
|
|
2008 |
23% |
34% |
31% |
10% |
2% |
58% |
|
|
2010 |
20% |
30% |
33% |
15% |
2% |
51% |
|
|
Bryant |
|||||||
|
2012 |
8% |
40% |
27% |
5% |
20% |
60% |
|
|
2014 |
12% |
43% |
26% |
10% |
9% |
|
60% |
Note: Percentages in first five columns total 100% across each row.
Source: http://sds17.pspa.msstate.edu/poll/PollResults12.htm, and the 2014 Mississippi Poll.
OBAMA’S JOB PERFORMANCE REMAINS SIMILAR TO OTHER DEMOCRATS
"I'm going to ask you to rate the job performance of a few political figures and institutions. Rate each of them as excellent, good, fair, or poor. What about President Barack Obama?" (Asked of entire sample; don’t knows omitted from analysis; the 1988 results combined two different surveys conducted that year.)
|
Excellent |
Good |
Fair |
Poor |
Favorable Rating (E+G) |
||
Reagan |
||||||
|
1981 |
22 |
31 |
29 |
18 |
53% |
|
|
1982 |
10 |
30 |
34 |
26 |
40% |
|
|
1984 |
21 |
33 |
22 |
24 |
54% |
|
|
1986 |
20 |
35 |
27 |
18 |
55% |
|
|
1988 |
23 |
38 |
24 |
15 |
61% |
|
Bush 1 |
||||||
|
1990 |
19 |
41 |
32 |
8 |
60% |
|
|
1992 |
10 |
39 |
36 |
15 |
49% |
|
Clinton |
||||||
|
1994 |
6 |
26 |
39 |
29 |
32% |
|
|
1996 |
11 |
27 |
34 |
28 |
38% |
|
|
1998 |
15 |
32 |
30 |
23 |
47% |
|
|
1999 |
13 |
34 |
24 |
29 |
47% |
|
|
2000 |
10 |
37 |
25 |
28 |
47% |
|
Bush 2 |
||||||
|
2002 |
36 |
33 |
19 |
12 |
69% |
|
|
2004 |
25 |
24 |
25 |
26 |
49% |
|
|
2006 |
15 |
30 |
27 |
28 |
45% |
|
|
2008 |
9 |
25 |
33 |
34 |
34% |
|
Obama |
||||||
|
2010 |
14 |
24 |
23 |
39 |
38% |
|
|
2012 |
18 |
22 |
25 |
35 |
40% |
|
|
2014 |
13 |
24 |
25 |
38 |
|
37% |
Note: Percentages in first four columns total 100% across each row.
Source: http://sds17.pspa.msstate.edu/poll/PollResults12.htm, and the 2014 Mississippi Poll.
LEGISLATURE'S JOB RATING REMAINS RELATIVELY POSITIVE
"I'm going to ask you to rate the job performance of a few political figures and institutions. Rate each of them as excellent, good, fair, or poor. What about the Mississippi state legislature?" (Asked of entire sample)
|
|
Excellent |
Good |
Fair |
Poor |
No Opinion |
Favorable Rating
(E+G) - (P) |
|
|
1981 |
3% |
36% |
46% |
8% |
7% |
+31 |
|
|
1982 |
5% |
24% |
43% |
15% |
13% |
+14 |
|
|
1984 |
3% |
25% |
51% |
11% |
10% |
+17 |
|
|
1986 |
2% |
27% |
41% |
17% |
13% |
+12 |
|
|
1988 |
4% |
29% |
46% |
12% |
9% |
+21 |
|
|
1990 |
2% |
23% |
50% |
16% |
9% |
+9 |
|
|
1992 |
2% |
16% |
44% |
29% |
9% |
-11 |
|
|
1994 |
2% |
22% |
45% |
22% |
9% |
+2 |
|
|
1996 |
5% |
29% |
44% |
12% |
10% |
+22 |
|
|
1998 |
5% |
28% |
45% |
9% |
13% |
+24 |
|
|
1999 |
5% |
35% |
39% |
8% |
13% |
+32 |
|
|
2000 |
3% |
34% |
44% |
9% |
10% |
+28 |
|
|
2002 |
4% |
31% |
38% |
15% |
12% |
+20 |
|
|
2004 |
4% |
30% |
43% |
14% |
9% |
+20 |
|
|
2006 |
2% |
29% |
42% |
17% |
10% |
+14 |
|
|
2008 |
3% |
33% |
44% |
12% |
8% |
+24 |
|
|
2010 |
4% |
26% |
46% |
17% |
7% |
+13 |
|
|
2012 |
5% |
27% |
38% |
17% |
13% |
+15 |
|
|
2014 |
4% |
29% |
40% |
16% |
11% |
|
+17 |
Note: Percentages in first five columns total 100% across each row. In calculating the Favorable Rating, "fair" is an ambiguous category when rating an institution, so it is excluded from the analysis.
Source: Source: http://sds17.pspa.msstate.edu/poll/PollResults12.htm, and the 2014 Mississippi Poll.
GENERAL TRUST IN PUBLIC OFFICIALS REMAINS BELOW HISTORIC AVERAGE
Question Wording (asked of entire sample): “How much of the time do you think you can trust public officials in Mississippi to do what is right—almost always, most of the time, only some of the time, or rarely?”
|
YEAR |
ALWAYS |
MOST OF TIME |
SOME OF TIME |
RARELY |
NO OPINION |
POSITIVITY- (always+most of time) -(rarely) |
|
1981 |
8% |
39% |
42% |
8% |
3% |
+39 |
|
1990 |
5 |
27 |
49 |
17 |
2 |
+15 |
|
1992 |
2 |
14 |
57 |
26 |
1 |
-10 |
|
1994 |
4 |
25 |
44 |
25 |
1 |
+4 |
|
1996 |
5 |
26 |
47 |
20 |
2 |
+11 |
|
1998 |
6 |
30 |
46 |
14 |
4 |
+22 |
|
1999 |
5 |
38 |
40 |
13 |
4 |
+30 |
|
2000 |
5 |
32 |
46 |
15 |
2 |
+22 |
|
2002 |
6 |
35 |
46 |
12 |
1 |
+29 |
|
2004 |
3 |
29 |
45 |
22 |
1 |
+10 |
|
2006 |
4 |
23 |
49 |
23 |
1 |
+4 |
|
2008 |
3 |
29 |
50 |
17 |
1 |
+15 |
|
2010 |
3 |
24 |
49 |
22 |
2 |
+5 |
|
2012 |
3 |
24 |
44 |
28 |
1 |
-1 |
|
2014 |
4 |
21 |
47 |
27 |
1 |
-2 |
Note: Percentages in first five columns total 100% across each row.
Source: Source: http://sds17.pspa.msstate.edu/poll/PollResults12.htm, and the 2014 Mississippi Poll.
REPUBLICANS MAINTAIN SLIGHT ADVANTAGE IN ADULT POPULATION
Question wording (asked of entire sample): “Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Democrat, Republican, Independent, or what?” (Independents were asked: “Do you think of yourself as closer to the Democratic party or to the Republican party?” Those leaning towards either party were considered identifiers of that party.)
|
YEAR |
DEMOCRATS |
INDEPENDENTS |
REPUBLICANS |
PARTY ADVANTAGE |
|
1981 |
61% |
7% |
32% |
29D |
|
1982 |
61% |
14% |
25% |
36D |
|
1984 |
56% |
15% |
29% |
27D |
|
1986 |
54% |
10% |
36% |
18D |
|
1988 |
53% |
13% |
34% |
19D |
|
1990 |
56% |
8% |
36% |
20D |
|
1992 |
47% |
13% |
40% |
7D |
|
1994 |
47% |
12% |
41% |
6D |
|
1996 |
48% |
10% |
42% |
6D |
|
1998 |
47% |
11% |
42% |
5D |
|
1999 |
51% |
10% |
39% |
12D |
|
2000 |
54% |
6% |
40% |
14D |
|
2002 |
45% |
8% |
47% |
2R |
|
2004 |
43% |
11% |
46% |
3R |
|
2006 |
47% |
6% |
47% |
0 |
|
2008 |
48% |
9% |
43% |
5D |
|
2010 |
39% |
11% |
50% |
11R |
|
2012 |
41% |
15% |
44% |
3R |
|
2014 |
44% |
8% |
48% |
4R |
Note: Percentages in first three columns total 100% across each row. Values in the last column indicate the Democratic or Republican advantage in each year, and is the difference in percentages between the two parties.
Source: Source: http://sds17.pspa.msstate.edu/poll/PollResults12.htm, and the 2014 Mississippi Poll.
QUALITY OF LIFE RATING IN STATE REMAINS QUITE POSITIVE
Asked of entire sample: “Overall, how would you rate Mississippi as a place to live—excellent, good, fair, or poor?”
|
YEAR |
EXCELLENT |
GOOD |
FAIR |
POOR |
POSITIVE: EXCELLENT PLUS GOOD |
|
1981 |
37% |
40% |
18% |
5% |
+77 |
|
1986 |
29% |
38% |
26% |
7% |
+67 |
|
1992 |
20% |
46% |
25% |
9% |
+66 |
|
1994 |
27% |
43% |
24% |
6% |
+70 |
|
1996 |
26% |
50% |
21% |
3% |
+76 |
|
1998 |
30% |
50% |
18% |
2% |
+80 |
|
1999 |
28% |
45% |
23% |
4% |
+73 |
|
2000 |
28% |
44% |
24% |
4% |
+72 |
|
2002 |
26% |
48% |
20% |
6% |
+74 |
|
2004 |
28% |
41% |
25% |
6% |
+69 |
|
2006 |
32% |
40% |
23% |
5% |
+72 |
|
2008 |
28% |
46% |
22% |
4% |
+74 |
|
2010 |
35% |
44% |
16% |
5% |
+79 |
|
2012 |
34% |
40% |
20% |
6% |
+74 |
|
2014 |
32% |
39% |
19% |
10% |
+71 |
Note: Note: Percentages in first four columns total 100% across each row. The last column combines the most positive responses, those rating Mississippi’s quality of life as excellent or good.
Source: Source: http://sds17.pspa.msstate.edu/poll/PollResults12.htm, and the 2014 Mississippi Poll.
FINANCIAL SATISFACTION RISES ABOVE HISTORIC AVERAGE
Asked of entire sample: “We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. So far as you and your family are concerned, would you say that you are pretty well satisfied with your present financial situation, more or less satisfied, or not satisfied at all?”
|
YEAR |
Pretty Well Satisfied |
More or Less Satisfied |
Not Satisfied At All |
No Opinion |
Satisfaction Level- (Pretty Well Sat. – Not Satisfied) |
|
1984 |
39% |
41% |
19% |
1% |
+20 |
|
1986 |
32 |
47 |
21 |
0 |
+11 |
|
1988 |
38 |
43 |
18 |
1 |
+20 |
|
1990 |
35 |
46 |
18 |
1 |
+17 |
|
1992 |
29 |
41 |
30 |
0 |
-1 |
|
1994 |
36 |
41 |
22 |
1 |
+14 |
|
1996 |
43 |
37 |
20 |
0 |
+23 |
|
1998 |
41 |
40 |
19 |
0 |
+22 |
|
2004 |
39 |
38 |
23 |
0 |
+16 |
|
2006 |
39 |
40 |
21 |
0 |
+18 |
|
2008 |
39 |
40 |
21 |
0 |
+18 |
|
2010 |
34 |
39 |
26 |
1 |
+8 |
|
2012 |
32 |
45 |
21 |
2 |
+11 |
|
2014 |
42 |
34 |
24 |
0 |
+18 |
Note: Percentages in first four columns total 100% across each row.
Source: Source: http://sds17.pspa.msstate.edu/poll/PollResults12.htm, and the 2014 Mississippi Poll.
ACCESS TO COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY REMAINS NEAR HISTORIC HIGH
Asked of entire sample: “Do you have access to a personal computer?”
|
YEAR |
Has Access to PC |
Does Not have Access |
|
1996 |
50 |
50 |
|
1998 |
56 |
44 |
|
2000 |
62 |
38 |
|
2004 |
68 |
32 |
|
2006 |
71 |
29 |
|
2008 |
67 |
33 |
|
2010 |
78 |
22 |
|
2012 |
73 |
27 |
|
2014 |
73 |
27 |
Note: Percentages total 100% across each row.
Source: Source: http://sds17.pspa.msstate.edu/poll/PollResults12.htm, and the 2014 Mississippi Poll.
GEOGRAPHIC MOBILITY AT HISTORIC AVERAGE
Asked of entire sample: “How likely do you think it will be that you will be living in your community five years from now? Definitely no, probably no, probably yes, or definitely yes?”
|
YEAR |
DEFINITELY NO |
PROBABLY NO |
PROBABLY YES |
DEFINITELY YES |
DON’T KNOW |
YES (Definite+Probably) |
|
1990 |
6% |
12% |
38% |
40% |
4% |
+78 |
|
1992 |
6 |
11 |
34 |
47 |
2 |
+81 |
|
1994 |
6 |
11 |
35 |
47 |
1 |
+82 |
|
1996 |
5 |
14 |
33 |
46 |
2 |
+79 |
|
1998 |
6 |
12 |
34 |
48 |
0 |
+82 |
|
2004 |
11 |
14 |
31 |
42 |
2 |
+73 |
|
2006 |
7 |
13 |
28 |
50 |
2 |
+78 |
|
2008 |
7 |
14 |
32 |
46 |
1 |
+78 |
|
2010 |
8 |
12 |
30 |
49 |
1 |
+79 |
|
2012 |
9 |
13 |
30 |
45 |
3 |
+75 |
|
2014 |
9 |
14 |
28 |
47 |
2 |
+75 |
Note: Percentages in first five columns total 100% across each row.
Source: Source: http://sds17.pspa.msstate.edu/poll/PollResults12.htm, and the 2014 Mississippi Poll.
MISSISSIPPIANS VALUE STATE PROGRAMS
Asked of 350 adult Mississippi residents: "Now I'm going to ask you about some issues facing state and local government in Mississippi. As you know, most of the money government spends comes from the taxes you and others pay. For each of the following, please tell me whether you think state and local government in Mississippi should be spending more, less, or about the same as now."
|
STATE PROGRAM |
SPEND MORE |
SPEND THE SAME |
SPEND LESS |
NO OPINION |
|
Public Grade Schools and
High Schools |
76 |
18 |
5 |
1 |
|
Health Care and Hospitals |
55 |
32 |
8 |
5 |
|
Public Colleges and Universities |
50 |
36 |
10 |
4 |
|
Streets and Highways |
62 |
33 |
4 |
1 |
|
Industrial Growth and Development |
61 |
28 |
7 |
4 |
|
Programs for the Poor |
48 |
29 |
18 |
5 |
|
Police Forces |
55 |
33 |
10 |
2 |
|
Child Day Care Facilities |
51 |
34 |
10 |
5 |
|
Encouraging Tourism |
46 |
36 |
15 |
3 |
|
Environmental Programs |
37 |
43 |
14 |
6 |
Note: Percentages total 100% across each row.
Source: Source: http://sds17.pspa.msstate.edu/poll/PollResults12.htm, and the 2014 Mississippi Poll.
PROGRAM SUPPORT GENERALLY REMAINS AT HISTORIC AVERAGES
Asked of entire sample in years indicated: "Now I'm going to ask you about some issues facing state and local government in Mississippi. As you know, most of the money government spends comes from the taxes you and others pay. For each of the following, please tell me whether you think state and local government in Mississippi should be spending more, less, or about the same as now." (Table entries are percentages who respond that “more” should be spent; na indicated that question was not asked that year.)
|
‘81 |
‘84 |
‘88 |
‘90 |
‘92 |
‘94 |
‘96 |
‘98 |
‘99 |
‘00 |
‘04 |
‘06 |
‘08 |
‘10 |
‘12 |
‘14 |
|
|
Schools |
69 |
72 |
75 |
80 |
76 |
79 |
79 |
83 |
80 |
79 |
83 |
79 |
78 |
72 |
74 |
76 |
|
Health $ |
59 |
62 |
70 |
73 |
74 |
68 |
68 |
70 |
71 |
74 |
72 |
74 |
73 |
56 |
64 |
55 |
|
Colleges |
59 |
60 |
68 |
63 |
68 |
65 |
60 |
64 |
61 |
63 |
63 |
60 |
55 |
56 |
63 |
50 |
|
Streets |
61 |
65 |
67 |
70 |
62 |
64 |
59 |
66 |
64 |
59 |
61 |
60 |
61 |
50 |
66 |
62 |
|
Industry |
71 |
61 |
71 |
61 |
69 |
63 |
57 |
53 |
58 |
56 |
63 |
57 |
61 |
56 |
59 |
61 |
|
Poor $ |
51 |
59 |
57 |
63 |
57 |
57 |
57 |
61 |
60 |
66 |
62 |
61 |
64 |
51 |
53 |
48 |
|
Police |
58 |
50 |
57 |
65 |
63 |
67 |
62 |
64 |
65 |
56 |
59 |
62 |
63 |
55 |
56 |
55 |
|
Day Care |
na |
na |
48 |
59 |
55 |
57 |
55 |
63 |
na |
na |
54 |
54 |
54 |
47 |
56 |
51 |
|
Tourism |
50 |
45 |
47 |
52 |
48 |
49 |
38 |
45 |
na |
46 |
48 |
41 |
43 |
43 |
38 |
46 |
|
Environ. |
39 |
38 |
41 |
48 |
49 |
45 |
37 |
43 |
43 |
45 |
40 |
48 |
44 |
35 |
35 |
37 |
Source: Source: http://sds17.pspa.msstate.edu/poll/PollResults12.htm, and the 2014 Mississippi Poll.
SUPPORT FOR GOVERNMENT HEALTH ROLE STRONG, BUT RECENT DIP REMAINS
Asked of entire sample in years indicated: “Do you strong agree, agree, disagree, or strongly disagree with the following statement? The government ought to help people get doctors and hospital care at low cost.”
|
YEAR |
Strongly Agree |
Agree |
Disagree |
Strongly Disagree |
Undecided |
|
1992 |
27 |
58 |
10 |
2 |
3 |
|
1994 |
24 |
53 |
17 |
4 |
2 |
|
1996 |
29 |
55 |
12 |
3 |
1 |
|
1998 |
28 |
54 |
14 |
3 |
1 |
|
2000 |
33 |
53 |
11 |
2 |
1 |
|
2004 |
37 |
52 |
9 |
1 |
1 |
|
2006 |
34 |
52 |
12 |
1 |
1 |
|
2008 |
49 |
37 |
9 |
4 |
1 |
|
2010 |
30 |
40 |
18 |
10 |
2 |
|
2012 |
25 |
45 |
19 |
9 |
2 |
|
2014 |
27 |
42 |
19 |
9 |
3 |
Note: Percentages total 100% across each row.
Source: Source: http://sds17.pspa.msstate.edu/poll/PollResults12.htm, and the 2014 Mississippi Poll.
SUPPORT FOR SEX EQUALITY AT HISTORIC HIGH
Asked of entire sample: “Do you agree or disagree with the following statement—Women should take care of running their homes and leave running the country up to men?” Those agreeing with this statement are classified as “Against Equal Rights for women” and those disagreeing with the statement are classified as “For Equal Rights”.
|
YEAR |
AGAINST EQUAL RIGHTS |
FOR EQUAL RIGHTS |
NO OPINION |
|
1984 |
41% |
53% |
6% |
|
1986 |
39 |
56 |
5 |
|
1988 |
39 |
55 |
6 |
|
1990 |
34 |
61 |
5 |
|
1994 |
24 |
70 |
6 |
|
1996 |
28 |
68 |
4 |
|
1998 |
25 |
70 |
5 |
|
1999 |
22 |
73 |
5 |
|
2004 |
25 |
69 |
6 |
|
2006 |
26 |
69 |
5 |
|
2008 |
31 |
64 |
5 |
|
2010 |
27 |
68 |
5 |
|
2012 |
24 |
72 |
4 |
|
2014 |
19 |
72 |
9 |
Note: Percentages total 100% across each row.
Source: Source: http://sds17.pspa.msstate.edu/poll/PollResults12.htm, and the 2014 Mississippi Poll.
RESIDENTS CONCERNED OVER RACIAL PROFILING POSSIBILITIES
Three questions asked of entire sample: 1) “Racial Profiling
is when a law enforcement officer stops and asks a person questions or detains
them, merely because of their race. Have you ever been a victim of racial
profiling?” 2) “Do you believe that racial profiling is a widespread practice
in Mississippi?” 3) “Do you believe that law enforcement officers should be
allowed to use racial profiling to fight crime?”
|
2004 |
2006 |
2008 |
2010 |
2012 |
2014 |
|
|
Ever
Been Profiled? |
|
|||||
|
Yes |
18 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
15 |
22 |
|
No |
81 |
83 |
85 |
83 |
83 |
77 |
|
Don’t
Know |
1 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
Is
Racial Profiling
Widespread? |
|
|||||
|
Yes |
45 |
50 |
53 |
51 |
53 |
55 |
|
No |
42 |
38 |
36 |
41 |
36 |
35 |
|
Don’t
Know |
13 |
12 |
11 |
8 |
11 |
10 |
|
Should
Racial Profiling Be Allowed? |
|
|||||
|
Yes |
16 |
22 |
20 |
19 |
16 |
15 |
|
No |
80 |
73 |
77 |
75 |
80 |
81 |
|
No
Opinion |
4 |
5 |
3 |
6 |
4 |
4 |
Note: Percentages total 100% down each column for each
question.
Source: Source: http://sds17.pspa.msstate.edu/poll/PollResults12.htm, and the 2014 Mississippi Poll.
PRO-CHOICE POSTURE AGAIN OUTNUMBERS PRO-LIFE POSITION
Asked of entire sample: “Do you strongly agree, agree, disagree, or strongly disagree with the following statement: By law, a woman should be able to have an abortion as a matter of personal choice."
|
YEAR |
Strong Agree |
Agree |
Undecided |
Disagree |
Strongly Disagree |
|
2000 |
9% |
34% |
5% |
32% |
20% |
|
2002 |
14 |
27 |
3 |
30 |
26 |
|
2006 |
11 |
31 |
4 |
31 |
23 |
|
2008 |
9 |
27 |
6 |
30 |
28 |
|
2010 |
15 |
28 |
6 |
28 |
23 |
|
2012 |
19 |
32 |
4 |
30 |
15 |
|
2014 |
16 |
34 |
4 |
21 |
25 |
Note: Percentages total 100% across each row.
Source: Source: http://sds17.pspa.msstate.edu/poll/PollResults12.htm, and the 2014 Mississippi Poll.
SUPPORT FOR DEATH PENALTY CONTINUES TO DECLINE
Asked of entire sample: “For someone who is convicted or murder, do you GENERALLY favor the death penalty, life in prison without parole, or a jail term that is shorter than for the rest of someone's life?”
|
YEAR |
Death Penalty |
Life without Parole |
Shorter than Life Jail Term |
Undecided |
|
1996 |
53 |
40 |
2 |
5 |
|
2006 |
47 |
41 |
4 |
8 |
|
2008 |
44 |
40 |
7 |
9 |
|
2010 |
47 |
38 |
6 |
9 |
|
2012 |
42 |
42 |
6 |
10 |
|
2014 |
39 |
44 |
8 |
9 |
Note: Percentages total 100% across each row.
Source: Source: http://sds17.pspa.msstate.edu/poll/PollResults12.htm, and the 2014 Mississippi Poll.
OPPOSITION TO GAY RELATIONSHIPS DECLINES
“Which of these
three options do you favor for gay couples: They should be allowed to get
legally married; they should be allowed legally to form civil unions but not to
marry; or they should not be allowed to obtain any legal recognition of their relationships.”
2014 [2012]
(2010)
Legal marriage = 31.0% [24.7%] (25.6%)
Civil unions = 21.0% [24.0%] (21.1%)
No legal recognition = 38.3% [45.7%] (49.4%)
No opinion = 9.7% [5.6%] (3.9%)
Note: Percentages total 100% down each column. Results from 2012 Poll are in brackets. Results from the 2010 Mississippi Poll are in parentheses.
Source: Source: http://sds17.pspa.msstate.edu/poll/PollResults12.htm, and the 2014 Mississippi Poll.
DEFENSE SPENDING SUPPORT RISES SLIGHTLY
Asked of entire sample: “Should National Defense spending be increased, decreased, or kept about the same?”
|
YEAR |
Increased |
Decreased |
Kept Same |
No opinion |
|
2002 |
55 |
8 |
32 |
5 |
|
2008 |
32 |
16 |
50 |
2 |
|
2010 |
34 |
13 |
46 |
7 |
|
2012 |
29 |
13 |
54 |
4 |
|
2014 |
39 |
12 |
45 |
4 |
Note: Percentages total 100% across each row.
Source: Source: http://sds17.pspa.msstate.edu/poll/PollResults12.htm, and the 2014 Mississippi Poll.
SOME RACIAL DIFFERENCES REMAIN ON KEY ISSUES
Asked of whites and African Americans in 2014: 1) “Do you strong agree, agree, disagree, or strongly disagree with the following statement? Because of past discrimination blacks should be given preference in hiring and promotion.” 2) “Do you strong agree, agree, disagree, or strongly disagree with the following statement? The government in Washington should make every effort to improve the social and economic position of blacks and other minority groups.” 3) “For someone who is convicted or murder, do you GENERALLY favor the death penalty, life in prison without parole, or a jail term that is shorter than for the rest of someone's life?” 4) “Do you strongly agree, agree, disagree, or strongly disagree with the following statement. The government in Washington should see to it that every person has a job and a good standard of living.” 5) “Do you strong agree, agree, disagree, or strongly disagree with the following statement? The government ought to help people get doctors and hospital care at low cost.” 6) “Which of these three options do you favor for gay couples: They should be allowed to get legally married; they should be allowed legally to form civil unions but not to marry; or they should not be allowed to obtain any legal recognition of their relationships.” 7) "Now I'm going to ask you about some issues facing state and local government in Mississippi. As you know, most of the money government spends comes from the taxes you and others pay. For each of the following, please tell me whether you think state and local government in Mississippi should be spending more, less, or about the same as now. Programs for the Poor." 8) “Racial Profiling is when a law enforcement officer stops and asks a person questions or detains them, merely because of their race. Have you ever been a victim of racial profiling?” 9) “Do you believe that racial profiling is a widespread practice in Mississippi?” 10) “Do you believe that law enforcement officers should be allowed to use racial profiling to fight crime?”
|
Whites |
African Americans |
|
|
Racial Preferences in Hiring and Promotions |
||
|
Favor |
8 |
59 |
|
Oppose |
92 |
41 |
|
Gov’t Should Improve Blacks’ Social and Economic
Positions |
||
|
Agree |
42 |
90 |
|
Disagree |
58 |
10 |
Preferred Penaltyfor Murder: |
||
|
Death Penalty |
55 |
21 |
|
Life without Parole |
39 |
67 |
|
Term ShorteR than Life |
6 |
12 |
|
Gov’t Should Provide Jobs and Good Living Standard |
||
|
Yes |
47 |
75 |
|
No |
53 |
25 |
|
Gov’t Should Greatly Lower Health Care Costs |
||
|
Yes |
59 |
91 |
|
No |
41 |
9 |
|
Gay Couples Legal Options Favored: |
||
|
Legal Marriage |
29 |
42 |
|
Civil Unions |
24 |
24 |
|
No Legal Recognition at All |
47 |
34 |
|
Poverty Spending Desired Level: |
||
|
Increased |
32 |
79 |
|
Decreased |
28 |
6 |
|
Kept the Same |
40 |
15 |
|
Ever
Been Profiled? |
||
|
Yes |
8 |
38 |
|
No |
92 |
62 |
|
Is
Racial Profiling
Widespread? |
||
|
Yes |
47 |
85 |
|
No |
53 |
15 |
|
Should
Racial Profiling Be Allowed? |
||
|
Yes |
24 |
4 |
|
No |
76 |
96 |
Note: Percentages total 100% down each column for each question. To better illustrate racial differences, “don’t knows” have been omitted from the analysis, and some response categories have been combined.
Source: The 2014 Mississippi Poll.