REPUBLICANS HOLD EARLY LEADS IN SENATE, STATE ELECTIONS

Republicans Trent Lott, Kirk Fordice, and Eddie Briggs each hold early leads against at least one possible challenger, according to a statewide poll conducted by undergraduate political science students at Mississippi State University with the support of the Social Science Research Center. "Because of time constraints, each incumbent was tested against only one announced candidate or possible challenger mentioned in the press," explained survey director Steve Shaffer of the Political Science Department. The telephone poll conducted April 4-13 of 362 likely voters was weighted by demographic characteristics so that all social groups were represented in the sample in rough proportion to their presence in the population, adjusting for the fact that not all households own telephones. The sample error with 362 potential voters is plus or minus 5%, which means that if everyone in the state had been surveyed the results could have differed from these results by 5% in either direction.

Trent Lott has a significant early advantage over Democratic hopeful Ken Harper. If an election had been held in early April, Lott would have been supported by 66% of the sample compared to 20% for Harper with 14% of likely voters undecided. As with most challengers, Harper's name visibility at this early point in the campaign is limited. Only 22% of potential voters claim to have "heard or read anything about former state senator Ken Harper." "I expect that the other challengers to Lott have a similar or even greater problem with name visibility," commented political science professor Steve Shaffer. Other announced candidates include Democrats Jorja Turnipseed and James W. "Bootie" Hunt of Starkville, Hiram Eastland of Doddville and Shawn O'Hara of Hattiesburg, and Republicans Jimmy Ray Bourland of Columbus and Richard O'Hara of Hattiesburg. "Name visibility should increase dramatically after the party primaries," added Shaffer, "and especially as the general election campaign progresses." Among those voters who are familiar with Ken Harper's name, his support increases to 24% while Lott's backing drops to 61% with 15% of voters undecided. "Certainly Ken Harper's near-victory in 1991 over a man who was virtually an institution, Lieutenant Governor Brad Dye, shows that he has tremendous come-back potential, and is a dangerous candidate for anyone to face," continued Shaffer. "On the other hand, Trent Lott is very popular among potential voters, and is likely to be harder to defeat," concluded Shaffer. The poll showed 24% of likely voters rating Lott's job performance as excellent, 37% good, 27% fair, and only 4% poor with 8% undecided.

Turning to one possible match-up for the 1995 governor's race, 51% of potential voters favored Republican incumbent Kirk Fordice and 39% backed Democratic Secretary of State Dick Molpus with 10% undecided. "Some of Fordice's advantage may be because of his overwhelming name visibility as governor of the state," said Shaffer. Only 1% of likely voters lacked enough information about Fordice to rate his performance as governor, while 13% of voters were unable or unwilling to rate Molpus' job as secretary of state. "After the Democratic primaries next year and especially during the general election campaign, I would expect voters to become significantly more aware of the Democratic gubernatorial nominee," added Shaffer. According to the political science professor, the fact that both Fordice and Molpus are seen by voters as doing a fairly good job in office suggests a "very tight contest." Nineteen percent of voters rated Fordice's job as excellent and 36% as good, compared to 9% excellent for Molpus and 43% good. Thirty-two percent rated Fordice's performance as fair and 12% poor, compared to 28% fair for Molpus and 7% poor.

Regarding one possible matchup for Lieutenant Governor, the incumbent Republican Eddie Briggs has an initial 20 point lead over Democratic Auditor Steve Patterson, whose name has been mentioned in the press as a possible challenger to Briggs. Briggs is favored by 47% of likely voters, while Patterson is backed by 27% and 26% are undecided at this early point over a year and a half before the election. "The high numbers of undecideds and the more modest name visibility of officeholders below the governor suggest that the lieutenant governor's race could become much more competitive by election day," cautioned Shaffer. At this early point there are no officially declared candidates for governor or lieutenant governor, and other names besides these four will undoubtedly surface over the next year.

In an even more hypothetical matchup, Mississippians would back a black for president over President Bill Clinton. If former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Colin Powell, declared as a Republican and won his party's nomination, 54% of Mississippi voters would support him compared to 36% who would favor Democrat Bill Clinton and 10% who are undecided. Much like another war hero Dwight Eisenhower before his presidential bid, nobody knows what political party Colin Powell prefers. Colin Powell's race doesn't hurt him among state voters, of whom 76% are aware that he is African-American. Indeed, Powell's support is even higher among voters correctly identifying his race, where 60% favor his candidacy to only 30% for Bill Clinton and 10% undecided. "Voters probably perceive Powell as being kind of middle-of-the-road or moderately conservative ideologically," commented Shaffer. "Coupled with his excellent job performance as chairman of the joint chiefs of staff and leader of allied forces during the Gulf War, he would be a dream candidate if the Republicans could attract him and lure him out of retirement where he is writing his memoirs." "One factor hurting President Clinton in Mississippi is his weak job performance ratings," concluded Shaffer. Only 8% of likely voters rate Clinton's job as excellent, 22% as good, 33% as fair, and a sizable 33% as poor with 4% undecided.

ELECTION QUESTIONS, 1994 MISSISSIPPI POLL

1994 SENATE RACE: ONE POSSIBLE MATCH-UP

Q26. If the general election for United States Senator was held today, and the two candidtes were Democrat Ken Harper and Republican Trent Lott, whom would you vote for? Harper or Lott?

HARPER (D) = 20%

LOTT (R) = 66%

UNDECIDED = 14%

100%

1995 GOVERNOR'S RACE: ONE POSSIBLE MATCH-UP

Q27. If the 1995 general election for governor was held today, and the candidates were Democratic Secretary of State Dick Molpus and Republican Governor Kirk Fordice, whom would you vote for? Molpus or Fordice?

MOLPUS (D) = 39%

FORDICE (R) = 51%

UNDECIDED = 10%

100%

1995 LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR'S RACE: ONE POSSIBLE MATCHUP

Q28. If the 1995 general election for lieutenant governor was held today, and the candidates were Democratic Auditor Steve Patterson and Republican Lieutenant Governor Eddie Briggs, whom would you vote for? Patterson or Briggs?

PATTERSON (D) = 27%

BRIGGS (R) = 47%

UNDECIDED = 26%

100%

1996 PRESIDENTIAL RACE: ONE POSSIBLE MATCHUP

Q29. If the 1996 presidential election was held today, and the candidates were Democrat Bill Clinton and former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Republican Colin Powell, whom would you vote for? Clinton or Powell?

CLINTON (D) = 36%

POWELL (R) = 54%

UNDECIDED = 10%

100%

This telephone poll of 362 adult Mississippi residents who are likely voters was conducted April 4-13, 1994 by the Survey Research Unit of the Social Science Research Center at Mississippi State University. The results were weighted or adjusted by demographic characteristics such as education, race, and gender, so that all groups would be represented in the sample in proportion to their presence in the voting population; this procedure helps to correct for the problem that not all groups are equally likely to own telephones. A sample size of 362 yields an approximate sample error of plus or minus 5%, which means that if the entire population of likely voters had been interviewed, the results could differ from the above by as much as 5%. Likely voters are determined by people's

responses to three political knowledge, interest, and vote likelihood questions.