DOLE HAS NARROW LEAD, POLL SHOWS

At a time when President Clinton holds a wide lead over Republican presidential candidate Bob Dole nationally, Dole retains a slight lead in Mississippi, according to a poll conducted by Mississippi State University. As of April 9-21 when the poll was conducted, Dole was favored by 49% of likely voters, while Clinton was backed by 43%, and 8% were undecided. But Dole's lead is so modest that it is within the 5% sample error margin of the poll, which means that if all Mississippians had been polled his lead might have been even more narrow. In other results, a very early reading on the 1999 gubernatorial race highlights Attorney General Mike Moore's strength, with a trial race between he and Fordice for governor resulting in a virtual tie. The poll of 359 likely voters who are Mississippi residents was conducted by the Social Science Research Center at Mississippi State University.

"President Clinton's reelection hopes in Mississippi are hindered by the lukewarm views that voters have of his performance in office," commented Dr. Stephen D. Shaffer, Professor of Political Science and Director of the poll. "Clinton had the lowest popularity of the five state and federal officials that we asked voters about, with only 40% rating his job performance as excellent or good and a substantial 31% rating his job as poor," said Shaffer. "Clinton's modest popularity can be contrasted with the high popularity of another federal official, Senator Thad Cochran," continued Shaffer. "Most voters (54%) rated Cochran's job performance as excellent or good, and only 4% rated it poor."

"Another problem facing Clinton is that some voters view him as too liberal," added Shaffer. "Sixty percent perceive him as being very or somewhat liberal, with 18% calling him moderate, 14% conservative, and 8% being unable to rank him. Dole is viewed as being more in-line with Mississippi voters' own moderate-to-somewhat conservative views. Fifty-eight percent of Mississippi voters regard themselves as moderates or somewhat conservative, and 53% view Dole as having the same kind of political philosophy," said Shaffer.

"As in recent presidential elections, Mississippians are deeply split by their political views and the social groups that they are members of," continued Shaffer. "Clinton is backed by 85% of Democrats and 73% of liberals, while Dole is favored by 87% of Republicans and 65% of conservatives. Fifty-five percent of moderates back Clinton, but a plurality of 47% of Independents back Dole. There are significant socioeconomic status and race differences in the candidates' support base, as Clinton is backed by 86% of African-Americans, 72% of those with annual family incomes below $20,000, and 67% of high school dropouts, and Dole is favored by 67% of whites, 62% of those with family incomes over $40,000, and 74% of college graduates. The national gender gap also exists in Mississippi, as Dole is backed by 56% of men but only 42% of women, while Clinton receives the votes of 46% of women but only 40% of men."

"In a very early read on the 1999 governor's race, voters were asked whether they would prefer Democratic Attorney General Mike Moore or Republican Kirk Fordice," added Shaffer. "This question was so hypothetical that we included Fordice's name only to present voters with a strong and popular Republican candidate, even though Fordice is constitutionally barred from seeking a third term. It is so early that we only asked about three Democrats historically mentioned as possible gubernatorial candidates, and Mike Moore led former governor Ray Mabus and state Auditor Steve Patterson for the Democratic nomination," explained Shaffer. "In the trial run for governor, Mike Moore is statistically even with governor Kirk Fordice, if such an election could be held today," said Shaffer. "Fordice is backed by 46% of likely voters, Moore by 45%, and 9% are undecided. "Both public officials are popular among voters, as Moore's job as Attorney General is rated excellent or good by 57% of voters, and Fordice's job as Governor is rated excellent or good by 52%. Steve Patterson's performance as state auditor is also rated highly by Mississippi voters, but they are less knowledgeable about him, as 39% declined to rate his performance," concluded Shaffer.

"The kinds of people backing Democrat Moore or preferring a Republican like Fordice are similar to what we found in the presidential race, with the exception that Mike Moore is politically stronger than a national Democrat like Bill Clinton," added Shaffer. "Moore draws a majority (56%) of the critical group of moderates, and nearly breaks even with Fordice among Independents. While especially strong among liberals and African-Americans, Moore is doing better among conservatives and whites than Bill Clinton, drawing about one-third of their votes. A plurality of women (47%) prefer Moore, while a majority of men (52%) back Fordice," said Shaffer. "While Fordice is clearly viewed as a conservative, Mike Moore at this point is able to transcend ideological labels," commented Shaffer. "Twenty-seven percent think he is somewhat or very liberal, 26% think he is a conservative, 20% view him as a moderate, and 27% don't know what his ideological position is," concluded Shaffer.

ELECTION AND JOB PERFORMANCE QUESTIONS

If the presidential election was held today, and the candidates were Democrat Bill Clinton and Republican Bob Dole, whom would you vote for?

Clinton = 43%

Dole = 49%

Undecided = 8%

If the 1999 Democratic primary for governor was held today, and the candidates were former governor Ray Mabus, Attorney General Mike Moore, and Auditor Steve Patterson, whom would you vote for? Mabus, Moore, or Patterson?

ALL LIKELY VOTERS ONLY DEMOCRATIC AND INDEPENDENT

LIKELY VOTERS

Mabus = 30% 38%

Moore = 42% 41%

Patterson = 12% 9%

Undecided = 16% 12%

If the election for governor was held today, and the candidates were Democrat Mike Moore and Republican Kirk Fordice, whom would you vote for? Moore or Fordice?

Moore = 45%

Fordice = 46%

Undecided = 9%

I'm going to ask you to rate the job performance of a few political figures and institutions. Rate each of them as excellent, good, fair, or poor.

IDEOLOGICAL PERCEPTION QUESTIONS

Please label the following political figures as very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate (or middle of the road), somewhat conservative, or very conservative.

This telephone poll of 359 adult Mississippi residents who are likely voters was conducted April 9-21, 1996 by the Survey Research Unit of the Social Science Research Center at Mississippi State University. The results were weighted or adjusted by demographic characteristics such as education, race, gender, and age, so that all groups would be represented in the sample in proportion to their presence in the voting population. A sample size of 359 yields an approximate sample error of plus or minus 5%. Likely voters are determined by people's responses to three political knowledge, interest, and vote likelihood questions.

GROUP DIFFERENCES ON PRESIDENTIAL VOTE (LIKELY VOTERS ONLY)

Note: Percentages total 100% across each row.

GROUP DIFFERENCES ON GUBERNATORIAL VOTE (LIKELY VOTERS ONLY)

Note: Percentages total 100% across each row.