2006 MISSISSIPPI POLL
This telephone survey was conducted by the Survey Research Unit of the Social Science Research Center at Mississippi State University with facilities that permit simultaneous use of twenty telephones. The SSRC is directed by Dr. Arthur Cosby, and the Survey Research Unit is directed by Dr. Wolfgang Frese. A random sampling technique was used to select the households, and a random method was employed in sampling each individual within the household. No substitutions were permitted, and ten callbacks were made. Calls were made from 5:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m. on weeknights, and from 1:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. on Saturdays and 1PM to 9PM on Sundays. A Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing System (CATI) was used to collect the data. Twenty-four undergraduate students in the Political Analysis class made the phone calls. Five hundred seventy four adult Mississippi residents were interviewed from April 3-23. The response rate was 50%. The results were adjusted by demographic characteristics in order to achieve a representative sample. With 574 people surveyed, the sample error is plus or minus 4.2%, which means that if every Mississippi resident had been interviewed, the results could differ from those reported here by as much as 4.2%. Some analyses examine only "likely voters," who consist of 312 individuals in the sample, which results in a sample error level of 5.8% for results in those analyses. The Director of the Survey was Stephen Shaffer in the MSU Political Science Department.
Note: to be as efficient as possible, results from this and future Mississippi Polls are posted on this website rather than distributed in any other way. Anyone interested in interpretations of the complexity of public opinion in modern day Mississippi are encouraged to consult the website above, as well as talk with MSU political science majors who have completed classes in American Politics. Questions about the poll can be directed to Dr. Shaffer by e-mail at the following address: kauai@ps.msstate.edu
The exact wording of all of the questions in the 2006 Mississippi Poll is on the web at: http://sds17.pspa.msstate.edu/poll/mspoll2006.html
Naturally, all questions asked are fairly general, in order to try to measure the views of average citizens who typically are not as knowledgeable of public affairs issues as are elected officials. Therefore, poll results are not always directly comparable to the controversies facing elected officials. In any event, the history of the Mississippi Poll does provide an interesting and informative insight into the “average Mississippian,” and raises many thought-provoking questions for our students and political observers.
REPUBLICANS HOLD EARLY LEAD IN ONE HYPOTHETICAL PAIRING IN THE 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Question Wording: If the presidential election was held today, and the candidates were New York Senator Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice the Republican, whom would you vote for? Clinton or Rice? (Asked of 312 likely voters in the general election)
Clinton = 39.9%
Rice = 50.9%
Undecided = 9.2%
REPUBLICANS HOLD EARLY LEAD IN ONE HYPOTHETICAL PAIRING IN THE 2007 GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION
Question Wording: If the election for governor was held today, and the candidates were Democratic former Governor Ronnie Musgrove and Republican Governor Haley Barbour, whom would you vote for? Musgrove or Barbour? (Asked of 312 likely voters in the general election)
Musgrove = 40.4%
Barbour = 51.9%
Undecided = 7.7%
HILLARY CLINTON VIEWED AS
MUCH MORE LIBERAL THAN
AVERAGE MISSISSIPPIAN
Asked of 574 adult Mississippi residents: "Please label the following political figures as very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate or middle of the road, somewhat conservative, or very conservative... President George W. Bush, Democratic Presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton, Governor Haley Barbour, and Lieutenant Governor Amy Tuck."
The last row indicates voters' responses to the following question: "What about your political beliefs? Do you consider yourself: very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate or middle of the road, somewhat conservative, or very conservative?"
|
|
VERY LIBERAL |
SOMEWHAT LIBERAL |
MODERATE |
SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE |
VERY CONSERVATIVE |
DON’T KNOW |
|
Hillary Clinton |
39% |
15% |
15% |
7% |
10% |
14% |
|
George W. Bush |
5% |
8% |
19% |
32% |
23% |
13% |
|
Haley Barbour |
3% |
9% |
25% |
31% |
15% |
17% |
|
Amy Tuck |
6% |
11% |
28% |
22% |
5% |
28% |
|
Residents' Own Views |
4% |
12% |
32% |
28% |
20% |
4% |
Note: Percentages total 100% across each row.
BARBOUR’S POPULARITY
REMAINS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
REPUBLICAN GOVERNOR
"I'm going to ask you to rate the job performance of a few political
figures and institutions. Rate each of them as excellent, good, fair, or poor.
What about?" (Note: asked of 312 likely voters; results from previous
governors included)
|
|
Excellent |
Good |
Fair |
Poor |
No Opinion |
|
Favorable Rating (E+G)/ (E+G+F+P) |
|
Winter 1981 |
12% |
46% |
34% |
6% |
2% |
|
59% |
|
1982 |
15% |
43% |
32% |
8% |
2% |
|
59% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Allain 1984 |
6% |
33% |
44% |
9% |
8% |
|
42% |
|
1986 |
10% |
39% |
40% |
11% |
0% |
|
49% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mabus 1988 |
14% |
39% |
29% |
4% |
14% |
|
62% |
|
1990 |
17% |
31% |
31% |
20% |
1% |
|
48% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fordice 1992 |
8% |
36% |
21% |
22% |
13% |
|
51% |
|
1994 |
19% |
36% |
32% |
12% |
1% |
|
56% |
|
1996 |
17% |
34% |
29% |
16% |
4% |
|
53% |
|
1998 |
11% |
44% |
32% |
9% |
4% |
|
57% |
|
1999 |
11% |
34% |
36% |
13% |
6% |
|
48% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Musgrove 2000 |
14% |
39% |
18% |
6% |
23% |
|
69% |
|
2002 |
9% |
32% |
35% |
18% |
6% |
|
44% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Barbour 2004 |
12% |
28% |
25% |
12% |
23% |
|
52% |
|
2006 |
16% |
32% |
32% |
16% |
4% |
|
50% |
Note: Percentages in first five columns total 100% across each row.
Source (previous years): The New Mississippi: Political and Partisan Attitudes in the 1990s. Available on world wide web at: http://www.ssrc.msstate.edu/Publications/srrs99-1.pdf
LEGISLATURE'S POPULARITY DIPS FROM HISTORIC HIGHS
"I'm going to ask you to rate the job performance of a few political figures and institutions. Rate each of them as excellent, good, fair, or poor. What about the Mississippi state legislature?" (Asked of entire sample)
|
|
Excellent |
Good |
Fair |
Poor |
No Opinion |
|
Favorable Rating (E+G) - (P) |
|
1981 |
3% |
36% |
46% |
8% |
7% |
|
+31 |
|
1982 |
5% |
24% |
43% |
15% |
13% |
|
+14 |
|
1984 |
3% |
25% |
51% |
11% |
10% |
|
+17 |
|
1986 |
2% |
27% |
41% |
17% |
13% |
|
+12 |
|
1988 |
4% |
29% |
46% |
12% |
9% |
|
+21 |
|
1990 |
2% |
23% |
50% |
16% |
9% |
|
+9 |
|
1992 |
2% |
16% |
44% |
29% |
9% |
|
-11 |
|
1994 |
2% |
22% |
45% |
22% |
9% |
|
+2 |
|
1996 |
5% |
29% |
44% |
12% |
10% |
|
+22 |
|
1998 |
5% |
28% |
45% |
9% |
13% |
|
+24 |
|
1999 |
5% |
35% |
39% |
8% |
13% |
|
+32 |
|
2000 |
3% |
34% |
44% |
9% |
10% |
|
+28 |
|
2002 |
4% |
31% |
38% |
15% |
12% |
|
+20 |
|
2004 |
4% |
30% |
43% |
14% |
9% |
|
+20 |
|
2006 |
2% |
29% |
42% |
17% |
10% |
|
+14 |
Note: Percentages in first five columns total 100% across each row. In calculating the Favorable Rating, "fair" is an ambiguous category when rating an institution, so it is excluded from the analysis.
Source (previous years): The New Mississippi: Political and Partisan Attitudes in the 1990s.
Available on world wide web at: http://www.ssrc.msstate.edu/Publications/srrs99-1.pdf
GENERAL TRUST IN PUBLIC OFFICIALS DIPS AGAIN
Question Wording (asked of entire sample): “How much of the time do you think you can trust public officials in Mississippi to do what is right—almost always, most of the time, only some of the time, or rarely?”
|
YEAR |
ALWAYS |
MOST OF TIME |
SOME OF TIME |
RARELY |
NO OPINION |
POSITIVITY- (always+most of time) -(rarely) |
|
1981 |
8% |
39% |
42% |
8% |
3% |
+39 |
|
1990 |
5 |
27 |
49 |
17 |
2 |
+15 |
|
1992 |
2 |
14 |
57 |
26 |
1 |
-10 |
|
1994 |
4 |
25 |
44 |
25 |
1 |
+4 |
|
1996 |
5 |
26 |
47 |
20 |
2 |
+11 |
|
1998 |
6 |
30 |
46 |
14 |
4 |
+22 |
|
1999 |
5 |
38 |
40 |
13 |
4 |
+30 |
|
2000 |
5 |
32 |
46 |
15 |
2 |
+22 |
|
2002 |
6 |
35 |
46 |
12 |
1 |
+29 |
|
2004 |
3 |
29 |
45 |
22 |
1 |
+10 |
|
2006 |
4 |
23 |
49 |
23 |
1 |
+4 |
A HISTORICALLY DEMOCRATIC STATE IS TODAY VERY DIVIDED IN PARTISANSHIP
Question wording (asked of entire sample): “Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Democrat, Republican, Independent, or what?” (Independents were asked: “Do you think of yourself as closer to the Democratic party or to the Republican party?”) Those leaning towards either party were considered identifiers of that party.
|
YEAR |
DEMOCRATS |
INDEPENDENTS |
REPUBLICANS |
PARTY ADVANTAGE |
|
1981 |
61% |
7% |
32% |
29D |
|
1982 |
61% |
14% |
25% |
36D |
|
1984 |
56% |
15% |
29% |
27D |
|
1986 |
54% |
10% |
36% |
18D |
|
1988 |
53% |
13% |
34% |
19D |
|
1990 |
56% |
8% |
36% |
20D |
|
1992 |
47% |
13% |
40% |
7D |
|
1994 |
47% |
12% |
41% |
6D |
|
1996 |
48% |
10% |
42% |
6D |
|
1998 |
47% |
11% |
42% |
5D |
|
1999 |
51% |
10% |
39% |
12D |
|
2000 |
54% |
6% |
40% |
14D |
|
2002 |
45% |
8% |
47% |
2R |
|
2004 |
43% |
11% |
46% |
3R |
|
2006 |
47% |
6% |
47% |
0 |
Note: Percentages in columns 2, 3, and 4 total 100% across each row. Values in the last column indicate the Democratic or Republican advantage in each year, and is the difference in percentages between the two parties.
Source (previous years): The New Mississippi: Political and Partisan Attitudes in the 1990s. Available on world wide web at: http://www.ssrc.msstate.edu/Publications/srrs99-1.pdf
SUPPORT FOR SEX EQUALITY LEVELS OFF
Asked of entire sample: “Do you agree or disagree with the following statement—Women should take care of running their homes and leave running the country up to men?” Those agreeing with this statement are classified as “Against Equal Rights for women” and those disagreeing with the statement are classified as “For Equal Rights”.
|
YEAR |
AGAINST EQUAL RIGHTS |
FOR EQUAL RIGHTS |
NO OPINION |
|
1984 |
41% |
53% |
6% |
|
1986 |
39 |
56 |
5 |
|
1988 |
39 |
55 |
6 |
|
1990 |
34 |
61 |
5 |
|
1994 |
24 |
70 |
6 |
|
1996 |
28 |
68 |
4 |
|
1998 |
25 |
70 |
5 |
|
1999 |
22 |
73 |
5 |
|
2004 |
25 |
69 |
6 |
|
2006 |
26 |
69 |
5 |
QUALITY OF LIFE IS RATED POSITIVELY, BUT FLUCTUATING
Asked of entire sample: “Overall, how would you rate Mississippi as a place to live—excellent, good, fair, or poor?”
|
YEAR |
EXCELLENT |
GOOD |
FAIR |
POOR |
POSITIVE: EXCELLENT PLUS GOOD |
|
1981 |
37% |
40% |
18% |
5% |
+77 |
|
1986 |
29% |
38% |
26% |
7% |
+67 |
|
1992 |
20% |
46% |
25% |
9% |
+66 |
|
1994 |
27% |
43% |
24% |
6% |
+70 |
|
1996 |
26% |
50% |
21% |
3% |
+76 |
|
1998 |
30% |
50% |
18% |
2% |
+80 |
|
1999 |
28% |
45% |
23% |
4% |
+73 |
|
2000 |
28% |
44% |
24% |
4% |
+72 |
|
2002 |
26% |
48% |
20% |
6% |
+74 |
|
2004 |
28% |
41% |
25% |
6% |
+69 |
|
2006 |
32% |
40% |
23% |
5% |
+72 |
Note: Percentages in columns 2 thru 5 total 100% across each row. The last column combines the most positive responses, those rating Mississippi’s quality of life as excellent or good. Some results from previous years are available at: http://www.ssrc.msstate.edu/Publications/srrs99-1.pdf
FINANCIAL SATISFACTION AT HISTORIC AVERAGE
Asked of entire sample: “We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. So far as you and your family are concerned, would you say that you are pretty well satisfied with your present financial situation, more or less satisfied, or not satisfied at all?”
|
YEAR |
Pretty Well Satisfied |
More or Less Satisfied |
Not Satisfied At All |
No Opinion |
Satisfaction Level- (Pretty Well Sat. – Not Satisfied) |
|
1984 |
39% |
41% |
19% |
1% |
+20 |
|
1986 |
32 |
47 |
21 |
0 |
+11 |
|
1988 |
38 |
43 |
18 |
1 |
+20 |
|
1990 |
35 |
46 |
18 |
1 |
+17 |
|
1992 |
29 |
41 |
30 |
0 |
-1 |
|
1994 |
36 |
41 |
22 |
1 |
+14 |
|
1996 |
43 |
37 |
20 |
0 |
+23 |
|
1998 |
41 |
40 |
19 |
0 |
+22 |
|
2004 |
39 |
38 |
23 |
0 |
+16 |
|
2006 |
39 |
40 |
21 |
0 |
+18 |
GEOGRAPHIC MOBILITY AT HISTORIC AVERAGE
Asked of entire sample: “How likely do you think it will be that you will be living in your community five years from now? Definitely no, probably no, probably yes, or definitely yes?”
|
YEAR |
DEFINITELY NO |
PROBABLY NO |
PROBABLY YES |
DEFINITELY YES |
DON’T KNOW |
YES (Definite+Probably) |
|
1990 |
6% |
12% |
38% |
40% |
4% |
+78 |
|
1992 |
6 |
11 |
34 |
47 |
2 |
+81 |
|
1994 |
6 |
11 |
35 |
47 |
1 |
+82 |
|
1996 |
5 |
14 |
33 |
46 |
2 |
+79 |
|
1998 |
6 |
12 |
34 |
48 |
0 |
+82 |
|
2004 |
11 |
14 |
31 |
42 |
2 |
+73 |
|
2006 |
7 |
13 |
28 |
50 |
2 |
+78 |
MISSISSIPPIANS VALUE STATE PROGRAMS
Asked of 574 adult Mississippi residents: "Now I'm going to ask you about some issues facing state and local government in Mississippi. As you know, most of the money government spends comes from the taxes you and others pay. For each of the following, please tell me whether you think state and local government in Mississippi should be spending more, less, or about the same as now."
|
STATE PROGRAM |
SPEND MORE |
SPEND THE SAME |
SPEND LESS |
NO OPINION |
|
Public Grade Schools and High
Schools |
79% |
15% |
5% |
1% |
|
Health Care and Hospitals |
74 |
21 |
4 |
1 |
|
Public Colleges and Universities |
60 |
29 |
7 |
4 |
|
Streets and Highways |
60 |
33 |
5 |
2 |
|
Industrial Growth and Development |
57 |
32 |
7 |
4 |
|
Programs for the Poor |
61 |
25 |
12 |
2 |
|
Police Forces |
62 |
30 |
6 |
2 |
|
Child Day Care Facilities |
54 |
32 |
10 |
4 |
|
Encouraging Tourism |
41 |
36 |
20 |
3 |
|
Environmental Programs |
48 |
35 |
12 |
5 |
Note: Percentages total 100% across each row. Some results from previous years are available at: http://www.ssrc.msstate.edu/Publications/srrs99-1.pdf