POLITICAL ANALYSIS, 2023, TEST 2
1.
(20 points) What is the MODE and the MEDIAN for each of the
following distributions (don’t knows are omitted from these polls and
distributed across the other categories). You may just write the one-word answers, Mode and Median next to the
appropriate categories. You should have two answers for each question (A-J), so
each answer is worth 1 point.
A.
2020 NES national study: Do you think of yourself as a
Democrat, Republican, or Independent?
Democrat = 35%
Independent = 33%
Republican = 32%
B. 2020 NES
national study: How often do you trust the government in Washington to do what
is right?
Most of
the Time = 14%
About
half of the Time = 31%
Some of
the Time = 44%
Never = 10%
C.
2020 NES national study: Attitude towards Senate’s
acquittal of Trump’s impeachment charge over his delay of Ukraine’s arms
shipments?
Favor Acquittal
= 38%
Neither favor nor oppose = 19%
Oppose Acquittal
= 43%
D. 2020 NES
national study: (Climate Change) Government action about rising temperatures.
Government should do more = 57%
Currently doing the right amount = 34%
Government should do less
= 9%
E.
2020
NES national study: Require employers to offer
paid leave to parents of new children.
Favor a
great deal = 44%
Favor
moderately or a little = 26%
Neither
favor nor oppose = 22%
Oppose
a little or moderately = 5%
Oppose
a great deal = 3%
F.
2020
NES national study: Favor or oppose building a
wall on the border with Mexico.
Favor a
great deal = 26%
Favor
moderately or a little = 11%
Neither
favor nor oppose = 19%
Oppose
a little or moderately = 10%
Oppose
a great deal = 34%
G. 2020 NES national study: Self-reported health of respondent.
Excellent = 14%
Very Good = 32%
Good = 35%
Fair = 15%
Poor = 4%
H. 2020 NES national study: What is the term in years for a U.S. Senator?
1-5 years = 47%
6 years = 39%
7 years or more = 14%
I.
2020 NES national study: What should
immigration levels be.
Increase = 29%
Stay the Same = 43%
Decrease = 28%
J.
2020 NES national study: Is the U.S. better or
worse than other countries.
A lot better = 32%
Somewhat better = 23%
The same = 25%
Somewhat worse = 13%
A lot worse = 7%
2.
(14 points) 2016 NES national study: This is an
ideological self-identification scale coded as:
1-
Extremely Liberal
2-
Liberal
3-
Slightly Liberal
4-
Moderate
5-
Slightly Conservative
6-
Conservative
7-
Extremely Conservative
The following are the mean values for the following:
Average American’s own ideology = 4.17
Perception of Democrat Hillary Clinton = 2.81
Perception of Republican Donald Trump = 4.81
Perception of the Democratic Party = 2.76
Perception of the Republican Party = 5.21
Answer each of the following questions in words. The average person’s perception of whom is between what category and what category, but closer to what category (for example).
A. What is the average American’s perception of Hillary Clinton’s ideology?
B. What is the average American’s perception of Donald Trump’s ideology?
C. What is the average American’s perception of the Democratic Party’s ideology?
D. What is the average American’s perception of the Republican Party’s ideology?
E. What is the average American’s own ideological self-identification?
F. What candidate or party is viewed as the most liberal of the four perceptions?
G. What candidate or party is viewed as the most conservative of the four perceptions?
3. (8 points) What is the range for each of the following scales?
A. Average residents’ age ranges from a low of 31 in Utah to a high of 45 in Maine.
B. Percentage of people in poverty in 2010 ranges from a low of 7% in New Hampshire to a high of 23% in Mississippi.
C. Number of violent crimes per 100,000 population in 2014 ranges from a low of 99 in Vermont to a high of 1,244 in the District of Columbia.
D. Homeownership rates for 2010 range from a low of 46% in the District of Columbia to a high of 79% in West Virginia.
4. (8 points) For each of the following four examples, which race is more united in its attitudes, whites or blacks? These data are from the 2021 GSS national study.
A. Ideological self-identification.
Variance of blacks is 1.59
B. Favor or oppose the death penalty for murder.
Variance of whites is .24
Variance of blacks is .23
C. Family Income.
Variance of whites is 5.43
Variance of blacks is 12.0
D. Personal Happiness.
Variance of whites is .42
Variance of blacks is .46
5. (15 points) A researcher is studying how age differences may affect political attitudes or one’s behavior or experiences. Using the national 2021 GSS poll, she generates the following five tables based on testing the relationship between age and an issue attitude, perception, or behavior. Columns total 100% down each column. For each of these tables, write the hypothesis showing the direction of the relationship between the two variables. Each of these bivariate relationships is indeed statistically significant.
|
18-39 |
40-59 |
60-89 |
|
|
Democrat |
36% |
30% |
36% |
|
Independent |
49% |
43% |
35% |
|
Republican |
15% |
27% |
29% |
|
Frequency
of Church Attendance |
18-39 |
40-59 |
60-89 |
|
Never (or almost never) |
54% |
43% |
39% |
|
Intermediate frequency |
34% |
40% |
39% |
|
At least Weekly |
12% |
17% |
22% |
|
Should
Government Reduce Income Differences? |
18-39 |
40-59 |
60-89 |
|
Yes (3 categories) |
65% |
52% |
46% |
|
Intermediate category |
16% |
15% |
16% |
|
No (3 categories) |
19% |
33% |
38% |
|
18-39 |
40-59 |
60-89 |
|
|
Favor |
49% |
65% |
58% |
|
Oppose |
51% |
35% |
42% |
|
Outdoor
Activities Frequency |
18-39 |
40-59 |
60-89 |
|
Daily or near daily |
39% |
42% |
52% |
|
Weekly or monthly |
34% |
28% |
24% |
|
A few times a year |
27% |
30% |
24% |
6. (10
points) A researcher did a study of the sources of party identification, using
the 2021 GSS survey. She derived the following GAMMA values depicting the
strength of the bivariate relationships between each demographic variable or
political attitude and party identification (which
ranges from Strong Democrat to Strong Republican).
Those
gamma values for the following bivariate relationships are:
Age
(trichotomized) and party identification = .09
Ideological
self-identification and party identification = .66
Sex and
party identification = -.11
Abortion
permit for any reason and party identification = .41
Government
should fix income differences and party identification = .46
A. Which
of these five factors is MOST important in shaping party identification?
B. Which of these five factors is SECOND
MOST important in shaping party identification?
C. Which
of these five factors is THIRD MOST important in shaping party identification?
D. Which of these five factors is FOURTH
MOST important in shaping party identification?
E. Which
of these five factors is LEAST important in shaping party identification?
6. (25 points) Please study the following three bivariate tables and five multivariate tables, and answer each of the lettered questions. This info is drawn from the 2021 GSS. A 5% difference or higher constitutes statistical significance; otherwise, there is no relationship between the variables. Percentages total 100% down each column. N sizes are not provided, since they are all sufficiently large for the analysis. This info bears on the model (race affects ideological self-identification; ideology affects party identification; race affects party identification):
Ideology
Race
Party Identification
BIVARIATE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RACE AND PARTY IDENTIFICATION
|
Party Identification |
Whites |
African Americans |
|
Democrat |
29% |
58% |
|
Independent |
43% |
38% |
|
Republican |
28% |
4% |
A. What is the direction of the relationship between race and party identification (use wording like a hypothesis)?
BIVARIATE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RACE AND IDEOLOGY:
|
Ideology |
Whites |
African Americans |
|
Liberal |
29% |
34% |
|
Moderate |
36% |
51% |
|
Conservative |
35% |
15% |
B. What is the direction of the relationship between race and ideology (use wording like a hypothesis)?
BIVARIATE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN IDEOLOGY AND PARTY IDENTIFICATION:
|
Party Identification |
Liberal |
Moderate |
Conservative |
|
Democrat |
67% |
26% |
10% |
|
Independent |
31% |
60% |
36% |
|
Republican |
2% |
14% |
54% |
C. What is the direction of the relationship between ideology and party identification (use wording like a hypothesis)?
D.
MULTIVARIATE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RACE AND PARTY IDENTIFICATION (for liberals only):
|
Party Identification |
Whites |
African Americans |
|
Democrat |
66% |
75% |
|
Independent |
31% |
24% |
|
Republican |
3% |
1% |
E. What is the direction of the relationship between race and party identification (use wording like a hypothesis) among liberals?
MULTIVARIATE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RACE AND PARTY IDENTIFICATION (for moderates only):
|
Party Identification |
Whites |
African Americans |
|
Democrat |
21% |
49% |
|
Independent |
60% |
49% |
|
Republican |
19% |
2% |
F. What is the direction of the relationship between race and party identification (use wording like a hypothesis) among moderates?
MULTIVARIATE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RACE AND PARTY IDENTIFICATION (for conservatives only):
|
Party Identification |
Whites |
African Americans |
|
Democrat |
6% |
49% |
|
Independent |
35% |
36% |
|
Republican |
59% |
15% |
G. What is the direction of the relationship between race and party identification (use wording like a hypothesis) among conservatives?
MULTIVARIATE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN IDEOLOGY AND PARTY IDENTIFICATION (for whites only):
|
Party Identification |
Liberal |
Moderate |
Conservative |
|
Democrat |
66% |
21% |
6% |
|
Independent |
31% |
60% |
35% |
|
Republican |
3% |
19% |
59% |
H. What is the direction of the relationship between ideology and party identification among whites (use wording like a hypothesis)?
MULTIVARIATE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN IDEOLOGY AND PARTY IDENTIFICATION (for blacks only):
|
Party Identification |
Liberal |
Moderate |
Conservative |
|
Democrat |
75% |
49% |
49% |
|
Independent |
24% |
49% |
36% |
|
Republican |
1% |
2% |
15% |
I. What is the direction of the relationship between ideology and party identification among African Americans (use wording like a hypothesis)?
J. So which factor is important in shaping party identification? Is it Race, Ideology, Both, or Neither?