Disclaimer: this is an objective poll that was conducted by MSU students for classwork. The results reflect the views of average Mississippi voters. MSU takes no position on these or any other political contests.

April 26, 1999

MUSGROVE, TUCK LEAD IN EARLY POLL

Lieutenant governor Ronnie Musgrove has an early lead in his quest to be elected governor of Mississippi, as does former Secretary of the Senate Amy Tuck in her bid to be elected lieutenant governor, according to a poll conducted by students in Political Science and Sociology classes at Mississippi State University. Using the facilities of the Social Science Research Center's Survey Research Unit, two classes conducted a statewide telephone survey of 429 likely voters drawn from throughout Mississippi. The ten minute interviews were conducted between April 5^th and 14th and the results were weighted by demographic groups to ensure that all groups were accurately represented in the poll. Overall survey results should be accurate with a sampling error of 5%. The poll also included smaller samples of 318 likely voters in the Democratic primary (with a sampling error of 6%) and 111 likely voters in the Republican primary (with a 10% sampling error).

"These results are very preliminary, but at this early point Musgrove has a substantial lead in the Democratic primary battle," observed survey director Professor Douglas Feig who serves as Head of the MSU Political Science Department. "Our survey indicated that if the Democratic gubernatorial primary had been held in early/mid April, Musgrove would have garnered 65.9% of the vote to 18.9% for former state Supreme Court Justice James Roberts with 15.2% of Democratic voters undecided." Regarding results for those likely to vote in the Republican primary, Feig cautioned, "the poll included only three major GOP hopefuls and with the small sample size (and resulting 10% sampling error) the results are especially premature, but in that small sample former Congressman Mike Parker led with 35.4% to 21.5% for former lieutenant governor Eddie Briggs and 7.4% for state representative Charlie Williams, with a very sizable 35.7% of Republican voters undecided at this early point."

"Four questions were asked about the gubernatorial general election matching Musgrove or Roberts against Parker or Briggs. Democrat Musgrove led both Republicans at this early point, though the outcome was closer when he was paired against Parker," explained Feig. In that hypothetical general election, Musgrove was backed by 48.2% of likely voters to 35.8% for Parker with 16.0% of voters undecided. "Musgrove held a more sizable lead over Eddie Briggs, winning 54.1% against Briggs' 27.9%; 18.0% of voters were undecided," said Feig. "At this early point, Roberts faired less well in hypothetical general election matchups with both Parker and Briggs leading him. But at the same time, the number of undecided voters increased with Roberts in the race, thereby making the interpretation of results more problematic," continued Feig. "Parker had 46.9% to Roberts' 27.3% with 25.8% undecided, and Briggs held 42.6% to 33.0% for Roberts with 24.4% undecided," Feig reported.

"A two-way matchup between Ronnie Musgrove and Mike Parker may well be closer by election day," observed Feig, "but as of early/mid April, Musgrove had a clear lead in most demographic groups. Musgrove had strong majorities among Democratic party identifiers and liberals, but also had a slight majority in the key groups of Independents and moderates. Parker, on the other hand, had a strong majority among Republican identifiers but a surprisingly small majority among conservatives. Musgrove had strong support among African-Americans, while Parker had a plurality of white supporters. Generally, Musgrove had the edge among all income groups and all education groups except for college graduates; he also led among those over 35 years of age and among women, while the race was a tossup among those under 35 and among men," said Feig.

"Because of the need to keep the survey interviews relatively short, even fewer candidates were included in the questions concerning the lieutenant governor's race," explained Feig. "In a two-way matchup in a Democratic primary between State Senator Grey Ferris and former Secretary of the Senate Amy Tuck (the two candidates who have received the most publicity), Tuck held an early lead of 40.1% to 26.1% for Ferris with a sizable 33.8% of Democratic voters undecided," said Feig. "Tuck's strength was especially impressive in the two hypothetical general election matchups where she and Ferris were both pitted against one of the Republican candidates, State Senator Bill Hawks," continued Feig. "Tuck led Hawks at this early point with 46.9% to Hawks' 21.8% with 31.3% of voters undecided. Ferris had a narrower general election lead over Hawks, gaining 36.8% to 26.2% for Hawks with 37.0% of voters undecided." Noting the large numbers of undecided voters in the Lieutenant Governor race, Feig cautioned against reading too much into these early findings. At the same time, Feig pointed out that "Tuck is strong across virtually all demographic groups in a two-way race with Hawks, at this early point. She is especially strong among Democrats, liberals, and African-Americans, but as of the time of the survey also out-polled Hawks among Independents and moderates. Indeed, Tuck even had a slight lead over Hawks among whites and conservatives. Tuck also carried every income, education, age, and gender group." In the interest of full disclosure, Feig reported that Tuck is a former student of his. For reasons of brevity, the survey included no questions about the other statewide electoral contests.

A final election question asked about a hypothetical presidential election matchup between Vice President Al Gore and Texas governor and Republican George W. Bush. "Interestingly enough, Bush had a relatively narrow lead at this very early point, with 48.8% to 41.2% for Gore and 10.0% of likely voters undecided," said Feig. "Despite the fact that Mississippi has voted Republican in all presidential elections since 1980, the 1996 outcome in Mississippi was a surprisingly narrow victory for Dole. We may see another close race in the year 2000, so partisans backing both of the parties hopefuls should be on notice that it probably won't be a cakewalk for any candidate," concluded Feig. "At the same time," Feig continued, "the Presidential election is well over a year away, so the survey results for the Presidential race are even more preliminary than those for the races for statewide offices which will be filled in elections this coming November."

1999 MISSISSIPPI POLL

If the 1999 Democratic primary for governor was held today, and the candidates were Lieutenant Governor Ronnie Musgrove and former State Supreme Court Justice James Roberts, who would you vote for? Musgrove or Roberts? (Asked of 318 likely voters in the Democratic primary; sampling error is 6%)

Musgrove = 65.9%

Roberts = 18.9%

Undecided = 15.2%

If the 1999 Republican primary for governor was held today, and the candidates were former Lieutenant Governor Eddie Briggs, former Congressman Mike Parker, and state Representative Charlie Williams, who would you vote for? Briggs, Parker, or Williams? (Asked of 111 likely voters in the Republican primary; sampling error is 10%)

Briggs = 21.5%

Parker = 35.4%

Williams = 7.4%

Undecided = 35.7%

If the election for governor was held today, and the candidates were Democrat Ronnie Musgrove and Republican Mike Parker, who would you vote for? Musgrove or Parker? (Asked of 429 likely voters; sampling error is 5%)

Musgrove = 48.2%

Parker = 35.8%

Undecided = 16.0%

If the election for governor was held today, and the candidates were Democrat Ronnie Musgrove and Republican Eddie Briggs, who would you vote for? Musgrove or Briggs? (Asked of 429 likely voters; sampling error is 5%)

Musgrove = 54.1%

Briggs = 27.9%

Undecided = 18.0%

If the election for governor was held today, and the candidates were Democrat James Roberts and Republican Mike Parker, who would you vote for? Roberts or Parker? (Asked of 429 likely voters; sampling error is 5%)

Roberts = 27.3%

Parker = 46.9%

Undecided = 25.8%

If the election for governor was held today, and the candidates were Democrat James Roberts and Republican Eddie Briggs, who would you vote for? Roberts or Briggs? (Asked of 429 likely voters; sampling error is 5%)

Roberts = 33.0%

Briggs = 42.6%

Undecided = 24.4%

If the 1999 Democratic primary for lieutenant governor were held today, and the candidates were State Senator Grey Ferris and former Secretary of the Senate, Amy Tuck, who would you vote for? Ferris or Tuck? (Asked of 318 likely voters in the Democratic primary; sampling error is 6%)

Ferris = 26.1%

Tuck = 40.1%

Undecided = 33.8%

If the election for lieutenant governor was held today, and the candidates were Democrat Amy Tuck and Republican Bill Hawks, who would you vote for? Tuck or Hawks? (Asked of 429 likely voters; sampling error is 5%)

Tuck = 46.9%

Hawks = 21.8%

Undecided = 31.3%

If the election for lieutenant governor was held today, and the candidates were Democrat Grey Ferris and Republican Bill Hawks, who would you vote for? Ferris or Hawks? (Asked of 429 likely voters; sampling error is 5%)

Ferris = 36.8%

Hawks = 26.2%

Undecided = 37.0%

If the presidential election was held today, and the candidates were Vice President Al Gore the Democrat and Texas Governor George W. Bush the Republican, whom would you vote for? Gore or Bush? (Asked of 429 likely voters; sampling error is 5%)

Gore = 41.2%

Bush = 48.8%

Undecided = 10.0%

NOTE: This poll was conducted in April 1999 by students in a political science and sociology class under the direction of Professor Douglas Feig of MSU's political science department. The facilities of the Social Science Research Center's Survey Research Unit were employed.

DEMOGRAPHIC DIFFERENCES IN PRESIDENTIAL VOTE

Note: Asked of 429 likely voters in April 1999, sampling error is 5%. Cell entries total 100% across each row.

Source: MSU Mississippi Poll, SSRC.

DEMOGRAPHIC DIFFERENCES IN GUBERNATORIAL VOTE

Note: Asked of 429 likely voters in April 1999, sampling error is 5%. Cell entries total 100% across each row.

Source: MSU Mississippi Poll, SSRC.

DEMOGRAPHIC DIFFERENCES IN LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR'S VOTE

Note: Asked of 429 likely voters in April 1999, sampling error is 5%. Cell entries total 100% across each row.

Source: MSU Mississippi Poll, SSRC.

NOTE: One candidate's supporters requested the following table of information, which has been analyzed and made available by Professor Steve Shaffer.

DEMOGRAPHIC DIFFERENCES IN LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR'S

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY (Asked only of Democrats and Independents)

Note: Asked of 318 likely voters in the Democratic primary; sample error is 6%. Cell entries total 100% across each row.

Source: MSU Mississippi Poll, SSRC.