(Note: these learning modules encompass the
actual class lectures, and are designed for those students who have to miss
class through no fault of their own, and also as a refresher for all students.
Bold print in the notes are what the professor writes on the board.)
LEARNING MODULE: WEEKS 9-10, Political
Participation, Voting
First of all, it is
indeed important to vote and to be active politically in other ways. If you
don’t vote, the politicians can ignore your concerns. Verba and Nie in the Participation
in America book pointed out many other forms of participation other than
voting, such as: campaigning for a candidate; contacting public officials to
make your views known about an issue, or seeking some benefit in your own life;
and being active in community affairs, such as on school boards, neighborhood
associations. Some political scientists have even studied non-conventional
activities, such as protests, demonstrations, and rioting. One interesting
study found that after the riots in urban areas of the 1960s, government social
welfare spending increased in those areas. Voting is the most common political
activity, but even there only a little over half of adult Americans generally
bother to vote. Barriers to voting include many state constitutions, which often
bar felons from voting for life, unless they are pardoned by the governor or
legislature. Liberals view voter identification requirements for voting as
another hassle, and some progressive states loosen voter registration
requirements and let people register on election day. Some states have mail-in
ballots, so that people don’t have to stand in line on election day. Have you
registered to vote yet? How have you found the experience? How would you
improve it?
We’re going to
focus on presidential elections, since they are the most important elections,
plus many of you are from other states. First, how does the presidential
nomination system work? Well, remember that under Jacksonian Democracy the
political parties moved to national nominating conventions. Under federalism,
each national party just told each state party how many delegates they could
send to the national convention (that number was based on state population and
how loyal the state’s voters were to the party’s candidates). It was up to each
state to pick the delegates however they wanted, and whenever they wanted. At
first, most states used a caucus-convention system, also used in building the
state parties organizationally. Party supporters would attend precinct
caucuses, elect delegates to attend county conventions a month later, those county
conventions would elect delegates to attend the Congressional district
conventions, and finally there would be a state party convention. Most states
still use that system to build their party organizations, such as choosing
their county party executive committees and state party executive committee.
That is another way you can be politically active- just attend your favorite
party’s precinct caucus in the presidential election year. A wave of reform hit
the then majority Democratic Party in 1968, and most states moved to primary
elections that let the voters choose the presidential candidate delegates. But
states control the election machinery, and state law sets the dates for the
primaries, so presidential delegates are selected anywhere from February
through June, depending on the state. So it is a very long, drawn out process.
Presidential
general elections are fascinating, and professors at the University of
Michigan in the 1950s proposed a model seeking to explain voting in
presidential elections. First, party identification is extremely
important; most people just vote for the candidate nominated by the party that
they psychologically identify with. Therefore, if you are in a party era with a
majority party, like the Democrats were in 1932-1968, that party will usually
win the presidential election. Short term forces like candidates and issues
can also be important, as the minority party must nominate a very popular
candidate or seize on a popular issue to overcome being the underdog. Here’s
how this model applies to the presidential elections from 1948 through 1976,
when Democrats had the advantage in numbers of voters.
In 1948, President
Harry Truman faced high unemployment as our troops had come home, and everyone
expected him to lose to Republican Dewey. Truman kept emphasizing the popular New
Deal economic issues like Social Security and protection of the worker, and
blasted the Republicans as the party of the rich and big business. He ended up
winning, uniting the majority Democratic Party on the popular economic
issues that had made them the majority party.
In 1952,
again there was public dissatisfaction, this time with the Korean War, the
spread of communism, and allegations of corruption in Truman’s administration.
Republicans nominated the war hero Eisenhower, who accepted the New Deal
programs. The issue of dissatisfaction and a popular candidate won it
for Republicans.
In 1956,
Eisenhower won re-election because of his great personal popularity (I
like Ike was the campaign slogan, using Disney cartoon characters carrying
signs), and the issues of peace and prosperity. In both years, you can
see how the short-term factors helped the minority party win election, the only
time they won during this period of 1932-1968. An interesting fact about
Eisenhower’s leadership was how he always told his advisors, “Don’t even mention
politics or partisanship when we make our decisions; we only do what is in the
best interests of the nation.” (This is obviously a far cry from the recent
political situation, where President Trump kept talking about how popular he
is: “I have the highest ratings in history, 91% approval among Republicans.”
Uh, what about the majority of Americans who are Democrats or Independents?
President Biden has been criticized as being the captive of the left-wing
extreme of his party.)
In 1960, in
a very narrow popular vote win (but a more comfortable electoral vote victory),
Democrat John Kennedy beat Republican Vice President Nixon. Kennedy unified the
majority Democratic party by picking a southerner as Vice President. He
defused his Catholicism problem by winning the West Virginia primary (a very
Protestant state) and speaking at a conference of Protestant ministers in Texas
and pledging a separation of church and state. He also came across very well in
the televised debates, being cool, calm, articulate, thoughtful; Nixon had
shifty eyes, looked pale with too much makeup, had a 5 o’clock shadow, and
didn’t even use all of his time.
In 1964, now
President Johnson won a landslide over very conservative Arizona Senator Barry
Goldwater. Goldwater was viewed by voters as too conservative, as he threatened
to repeal the New Deal by making Social Security voluntary, selling the TVA
(Tennessee Valley Authority electric generating system) to private industry,
eliminating farm price supports; he wanted to win in Vietnam; he talked loosely
about the possible use of nuclear weapons. So, the majority party won,
and even the issues were with them as Goldwater was seen as too
conservative.
In 1968, our
nation faced a bloody Vietnam War, campus protests against it, urban
riots, rising crime, and rising inflation. Republican Richard Nixon played
on this issue of dissatisfaction with how things were and beat Johnson’s Vice
President, a liberal from Minnesota Hubert Humphrey (interestingly enough, Humphrey
had been mayor of Minneapolis, the author of the 1948 Democratic civil rights
platform, and then a U.S. Senator). A third-party candidate was segregationist
Alabama governor George Wallace, who carried a few Deep South states like
Mississippi based on his being even tougher than Nixon on protesters. So the
issues of dissatisfaction helped the minority Republican Party; but
Democrats were still the dominant party, as they kept control of Congress until
1980.
In 1972,
Democrats moved left (liberal), and nominated liberal anti-war Senator
George McGovern. He pledged to end the war immediately, and said he
would “crawl to Hanoi” (capital of communist North Vietnam) to bring our POWs
home. He wanted to slash defense spending and condemned our more authoritarian
allies. The Republicans called him the Triple A candidate- in favor of acid,
amnesty (for Vietnam draft evaders who had fled to Canada), and abortion. Even
the AFL-CIO labor union for the first time in their history refused to endorse
the Democrat. Nixon won re-election. The minority party won because the
majority had picked a weak candidate who was too liberal. (Trump has tried to
combine these two elections, being a tough law-and-order candidate, and
blasting liberal Democratic mayors who wished to de-fund the police or harbor
illegal immigrants.)
In 1976,
more centrist Jimmy Carter reunited his Democratic party and beat President
Jerry Ford. His running mate was Minnesota Senator, liberal Walter Mondale, so
this was a nice balanced ticket with Carter being a southerner and centrist.
Indeed, not only did Carter win the more liberal northern states, but he also
won all except one of the southern states. There was also some dissatisfaction
with Ford’s pardon of Nixon, and with a weak economy (Carter called it the
misery index, which added the inflation and unemployment rate).
We now move into
the more modern age, as Ronald Reagan upended Carter, Republicans gained
control of the U.S. Senate for a while, and Republicans closed the gap with
Democrats in terms of the public’s partisan identifications (especially among
likely voters). Therefore, issues and candidate factors became central in
shaping the outcome of elections. The next section is a likely exam question.
The
1980 election was a clear case of dissatisfaction, as the issues of the Iranian
hostage situation (they held our diplomats for a year), the Soviet invasion
of Afghanistan, high unemployment during the recession, and 13%
annual inflation obviously hurt President Carter. In the one televised
debate near the end of the campaign, Carter kept trying to paint the
conservative Reagan as an extremist. Reagan just grinned, did an aw-shucks
routine, sighed and responded, “There you go again,” and rebutted his claims.
He said that in the 1960s he had
supported an alternative free market Eldercare plan instead of Medicare,
and he later sought to eliminate nuclear weapons from the face of the earth. At
the end, he summed it up as: “Are you better off today than you were four years
ago? Can you buy as much for your dollar as you could then? If so, vote for my
opponent. If not, give my program a chance.” Reagan won a landslide.
In
1984 Reagan won re-election with a booming economy. His campaign
ad was an optimistic “Morning in America” film that highlighted this booming
economy, and a stronger America militarily. Reagan had also become personally popular.
He worked with Democratic House Speaker Tip O’Neill, a fellow Irishman, and
granted interviews with hostile media outlets (“Well, I don’t think I changed
any minds, but at least I tried.”). When Reagan stumbled over his words in the
first debate, and was then asked in the second debate whether he was too old to
be President any longer, he joked: “I am not going to make age an issue in this
campaign. I am not going to make an issue of my opponent’s relative youth and
inexperience.” Even Democrat Mondale laughed. Mondale picked the first woman
Vice Presidential running mate of a major party, Congresswoman Geraldine
Ferraro. It didn’t help.
In
1988 Reagan’s Vice President George Herbert Walker Bush beat Massachusetts
governor and the son of Greek immigrants Michael Dukakis. Bush staged a come-from-behind
victory by tearing down his opponent, labeling him as being too liberal.
Dukakis was a member of the liberal ACLU (American Civil
Liberties Union), he had vetoed a pledge of allegiance bill for public schools
(fearing a 1st amendment establishment lawsuit), he had a furlough
program for inmates (one of them, Willie Horton, had terrorized a young couple
on his furlough), and Dukakis made defense spending a low priority. Even
reporters felt he had an image problem, and one of them asked him at a debate:
“Governor Dukakis, if your wife Kitty were raped and murdered, would you still
oppose the death penalty.” Dukakis while smirking responded, “Yes, I
would. I don’t think it is a deterrent to crime. We’ve done other things to
reduce crime in Massachusetts, such as….” Bush’s response with emotion was: “I
disagree with my opponent. I think there are some crimes that are so heinous,
such as the killing of a police officer, that they merit the death penalty.”
(Trump in 2020 tried to paint Joe Biden as an extreme liberal. Did it stick?
No. Biden had a more moderate liberal history in the Senate, and he had to
spend a lot of time apologizing to liberal interest groups for it.)
In
1992, as we continue this modern era of issues and candidates being the
dominant forces deciding elections (since the two parties are tied in
adherents), the key issue was public dissatisfaction over the economic recession
and high unemployment. The media kept talking about the bad economic
news, even though things were starting to recover. Democrat Bill Clinton
stressed this issue with the campaign slogan, “It’s the economy, Stupid!” The aloof
President Bush didn’t help his case; in a town hall debate when asked about
how he could understand the plight of average people, he said he didn’t
understand the question, and then glanced at his watch. Clinton walked into the
audience, and said, “I feel your pain. I come from a small town in Arkansas,
Hope. I know people personally affected by the recession.” Clinton won. It was
also kind of interesting that he didn’t seek to politically balance his ticket
geographically, as he picked a Vice President whom he thought could actually be
President, Senator Al Gore of Tennessee. It is also interesting that Clinton
projected a more centrist image compared to previous losing Democratic
nominees, as he supported the death penalty, criticized radical protesters, and
called for rare abortions (though legal and safe).
In
1996 Clinton won re-election with a booming economy that was so
great that even some Republicans were asking themselves, “Why should I vote for
a change; I have money in my pocket?” Clinton talked about his domestic
programs as being a Bridge to the 21st Century, kind of a
knock on his opponent Senator Bob Dole who was so old that people
thought of him as a Bridge to the 19th Century. The 73-year-old Dole
didn’t help himself when he was bending over a wooden railing at a campaign
rally to shake hands and the railing broke and he fell into the street; lying
on his back, his eyes looked stunned, but he got up pretty fast. Saturday Night
live had some great skits about Dole! Another problem is that Dole had a
history of being sarcastic, bitter, and mean. In the 1976 Vice
Presidential debates (Ford had dumped V.P. Nelson Rockefeller and put the
conservative Dole on the ticket) he accused the Democrats of being “the party
of War. Every war in this century, started by a Democrat. World War 1, Wilson.
World War 2, FDR. Korea, Truman. Vietnam, Johnson. All Democrat wars started by
Democrat Presidents.” So issues and candidates made the difference.
(Personally, I liked Dole; he was a war hero, lost the use of his right arm,
always carried a pencil in it so people wouldn’t try to shake it; he was in the
Senate so long that he became Senate Republican Leader, and his fellow senators
rated him as the most effective senator in that body.)
The
2000 election seemed to be all about the candidates. George Walker Bush (the
son of the former President Bush) was a Republican, but he was a “compassionate
conservative.” Vice President Gore was a liberal Democrat, but he didn’t talk
much about President Clinton because of the sex scandal, even though the
economy was booming and Clinton was popular! Gore bombed in the debates. In the
first one, he acted like Hermione Granger in Harry Potter. Bush would start
answering a question, and I would hear a sigh. Then I would hear another sigh.
It was an impatient Al Gore who acted like he knew all the answers, and wanted
to answer every question, and do all of the talking. Saturday Night Live did a
great skit making fun of Gore, and the Gore campaign manager even showed that
skit to Gore to try to make him more self-aware. In the next debate on foreign
policy, Bush was calmly sitting on a stool and talking, and Gore walked right
up to him, and Bush stared him down. Again, creepy! So Gore had a
problem of perceived arrogance. But why did Bush lose the popular
vote (while winning the electoral vote)? Well, the weekend before the election,
it came out that before being Texas governor he had had a DUI arrest; he
never publicly admitted it because he didn’t want to be a bad role model for
his two teenage daughters. And so the election was so close that it was up to
cliffhanger Florida, as plane loads of lawyers from both parties flew down to
Florida, and the Supreme Court finally decided the Florida outcome.
Well,
the 2004 election was another reality TV program type of election. Bush
never did find those weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. Saddam Hussein had
lost them during the first Gulf War, but he wanted to appear to be the big
bully in the Mideast so he never admitted that he didn’t have them. Democrats
nominated the liberal Senator from the most liberal state in the nation, John
Kerry of Massachusetts. Even though he had served in Vietnam, Kerry returned as
a bitter anti-war activist. He even joined with a group that accused American
soldiers of committing war atrocities against civilians. The impression I got
was that the public viewed Bush as a leader in the fight against terrorism.
He would keep America safe. And he didn’t wait on other nations’
support, and wait for their permission. Bush won a narrow victory, benefitting
from the anti-terrorism issue.
What
a difference 4 years makes! By 2006 Americans had become fed up with our
endless seeming involvement in Iraq, and Democrats gained control of both
chambers of Congress. Then, the financial community nearly collapsed, as they
had made too many questionable loans, and in 2008 we had to begin
bailing them out with federal money. Democrats nominated Barack Obama,
an articulate, thoughtful (he paused and thought before he
spoke), organized, and passionate (“Yes, we can.”) candidate. He
was very concerned over income inequality. Republican Senator John McCain was
an honored war hero who had been a POW in Vietnam (He showed so much character
that he refused to be released early, because others had been held in prison
longer; that’s when his jailors crippled his shoulder.), but the 72-year-old looked
old as he stumbled around the debate stage. Obama won due to his positive
personal characteristics plus the issue of dissatisfaction over the financial
meltdown. Obama was also a kind of post-racial candidate, as he didn’t
stress the race issue, and his race appeared to have no effect on voters. Do
any of you remember anything about President Obama’s elections? How did you
feel about President Obama?
Well,
in 2012 Obama was re-elected President. Polls showed that his
issues supporting the middle class helped him, as did voters’ perception
that he cared about the average person. He had empathy. Republicans
nominated a rich businessman Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts (his
RomneyCare for that state was actually similar to ObamaCare!). Romney
was a Mormon who gave a lot of money to his church; he stuck by his wife’s side
when she had cancer; he organized fellow business leaders to save the Salt Lake
City Olympics. But he was weak in the foreign policy debate, and didn’t
counter Obama’s implication that terrorism wasn’t much of a problem anymore (a
terrorist attack had just killed our Libyan ambassador in the city of Benghazi),
or Obama’s mocking of Romney’s concern over Russia (“Mitt, the Soviet Union
doesn’t even exist anymore” said Obama). The rich guy Romney then was caught by
a waiter’s cellphone, as he asked for
donations from rich people: “You know, 47% of the American people doesn’t even
pay taxes, and they’re not going to vote for me.” That 47% comment that
gave the impression that Romney thought that nearly half of the American people
were freeloaders was the kiss of death (actually, they still pay taxes other
than the federal income tax, such as state sales taxes, property taxes).
President Trump in his first term repeatedly made fun of Romney, saying that he
“choked” and lost the election. (Romney, then a senator from Utah until 2025,
was the only senator to break party lines and vote to remove Trump for an
impeachable offense in both of his impeachments.)
And
now we come to 2016. Nobody expected a Reality TV star with no political
experience like Donald Trump to win the presidency, or even to get the
Republican nomination. However, as an outsider he played on public
discontent with politicians, so he hung derogatory labels on his
opponents- lyin’ Ted (Senator Cruz of Texas), little Marco (Senator Rubio of
Florida had desperately reached for a glass of water when giving a televised
rebuttal to an Obama speech), low-energy Jeb (another Bush, this time the
governor of Florida; again, some truth, I saw a split screen with a Trump rally
versus Bush talking like a professor to a small crowd of people sitting in a
living room somewhere), and of course Crooked Hillary (Clinton). Clinton was
also overconfident, not expecting to lose normally Democratic states like
Michigan and Pennsylvania, so she didn’t campaign there much. Trump was not a
normal free enterprise, free trade Republican, as his willingness to engage in trade
wars and his promotion of American businesses helped him with blue collar
workers in these Rust Belt states. Clinton was hurt by her e-mail scandal,
which federal prosecutors looked into (without any indictment). Clinton’s final
problem was arrogance, as she brushed off many Trump supporters (when
addressing an LGBTQ crowd) as “racists, sexist, homophobic, Islamophobic,
basket of deplorables, totally unredeemable.” An interesting contrast- Clinton
had had some Hollywood types lined up for her election night party; the next
day, Trump was on the phone putting pressure on American business executives to
keep their factories in the U.S. and open up new ones. So, what did you think
about that campaign? What did you think about the Trump open mike comment years
earlier? When that came out, that weekend one third of Senate Republicans
called on Trump to be kicked off of the ticket. He fought back by inviting all
of the women who had accused Bill Clinton of sexual harassment to sit in the
front row of the next debate. So, Trump wins in a dirty campaign where voters
get to choose between two relatively unpopular candidates.
Biden’s victory
over Trump in 2020 wasn’t a big surprise. Two indicators of likely
presidential outcome are presidential job rating and the economy, and Trump
always had more disapprovals than approvals of his job rating, plus the economy
crashed after the nationwide coronavirus shutdown (though it later improved).
Biden was pretty universally seen as a nice guy, who showed his concern for
American worries over the coronavirus pandemic by preaching mask wearing and
holding socially-distanced car rallies. So weak Trump job rating, weak
economy, scary pandemic, nice guy Democrat helped elect Biden. Biden won
the electoral vote and the national popular vote. His vice president Kamala
Harris made history as the first woman and person of color as VP.
Trump’s victory in 2024
was largely because of public dissatisfaction with high inflation and open
borders. Inflation hit 9% in one of Biden’s years, and over his 4-year term
inflation was about double what it was in Trump’s first term. While Trump had
pretty much closed the border to illegal immigration by his last year in office,
the Biden administration seemed to welcome all immigration. They refused to
assemble parts of the border wall that was lying on the ground awaiting
installation, they accused a border patrol agent of whipping migrants trying to
cross the border when the horse-backed agent was just maneuvering the horse reins
to head off illegals, and V.P. Harris in Central America showed no feeling in
telling people that our borders were closed to illegals. Trump also played on
opposing transexuals in women’s sports, a cause of the Biden administration.
Democrats tried to play on Trump’s alleged hostility to democracy, but
Democrats were the ones who tried to keep Trump off of the general election
ballot in three states, and Democrats had dumped the candidate who won the
convention delegates in favor of Kamala Harris who had won no delegate votes.
So, what do you think about this most recent election? How could the Democrats
had done better? Who do you think would be strong presidential candidates in
2028??