INTRODUCTION TO PUBLIC OPINION (Week 1)

(Note: these are actual class notes, valuable to those having an excused class absence, or those wishing to review their class notes for the test. Double spaced notes reflect subjects that are so important that they are likely to be asked about on a test.)

Why do we even care about the subject of this class- Public Opinion? Well, because we live in a Republic rather than a heredity King or a Direct Democracy. In a Republic, the representatives of the people, who are chosen by the people, make the laws. So, we would hope that those representatives of the people care about what the people are thinking about important public policies. What the people are thinking is Public Opinion.

However, can public opinion be a threat to our Republic? Our Founding Fathers set up an indirect democracy to ensure that the ignorant masses did not threaten other citizens by backing unfair or repressive laws. Some political observers today see Trump supporters as a threat to due process and to our democracy. Others argue that "woke" left-wing and socialist Democrats are a threat to free speech and freedom more generally. Well, that gets into the definition and characteristics of public opinion, since neither group constitutes a majority of the population. Class discussion on how the public can itself be a threat to democracy.

Public Opinion definition (see textbook)- “The preferences of the adult population on matters of relevance to government.” Easy enough- adults means 18 and older. Does the term adult include undocumented immigrants? Aren’t they part of our nation’s population? Matters of relevance to government. Does that include our public’s opinions of the American international women’s soccer team? They take public positions in favoring equal pay for their team versus the men’s soccer team, in supporting racial justice (some took a knee, or did not put their hand over their heart during the national anthem), in supporting LGBTQ issues (some have wives). So, as you can see, this course can get into a lot of popular subjects.

There are 4 general characteristics of public opinion. They are:

1) Majority opinion- what attitude do most people hold, most meaning a plurality (single largest response category) or a majority (50% plus one). Seems pretty straightforward, shouldn’t public officials automatically just pass laws reflecting the majority opinion? Not necessarily, because of the following three other characteristics of public opinion.

2) Form of distribution- unimodal, bimodal, even distribution, etc. Are people united in their attitudes, or are they divided? If they are pretty united, that is called unimodal (one peak in numbers of people having a particular viewpoint). Historically, in the 1950s Americans were unimodal towards the center of the ideological spectrum, so presidential candidates like Republican President Eisenhower and Democratic loser Stevenson were both pretty middle-of-the-road, and it was easy for voters supporting the losing candidate to still give the victorious candidate a chance. Bimodal means that there are two peaks, two spots on the ideological spectrum that have a lot of people. For instance, there might be two peaks- at the liberal and at the conservative points with fewer people in the middle. That is a more divisive situation, kind of like today, where those supporting the losers Clinton and Harris were critical of Trump on nearly everything he did, and those supporting the loser Trump in 2020 were similarly very negative towards everything Biden did. Obviously, a pretty divisive situation.

3) Intensity- do people really care about that issue? If you ask people about many specific foreign policies, such as economic aid to Central America or military aid to Ukraine, they may not have very intense opinions (or any opinion at all), so public officials have a lot of leeway in doing whatever they wish. When people have a high intensity on an issue, such as abortion or gay rights, public debate over that issue can become very divisive. Requiring schoolkids to keep wearing masks was an intense issue to many parents in Columbus, Mississippi, and while a majority of parents may have favored compulsory mask wearing, when 300 parents threatened to defy such a ban and say, “what are you going to do, arrest us all?”, such school boards sometimes decided to make mask wearing optional based on the parent or child’s desire.

4) Stability- do people keep the same issue position, or does it change a lot. What if a majority of people favor a particular policy, but they don’t feel very strongly about that issue so they change their minds a lot, or new information causes them to change their minds? That’s where a public official may wish to defy the majority’s opinion at the moment, and do what they believe is best for their constituents. Most Americans did not want to become involved in World War 2, but President Franklin Roosevelt (FDR) moved us gradually into a military support role, and then the Japanese sneak attack on our military base in Hawaii, Pearl Harbor, changed American public opinion. Therefore, you might say that FDR led public opinion. That often happens- another example is the civil rights movement, where the Supreme Court and the Congress led public opinion to finally change in the South to finally support racial integration by law.

The 5 models whereby public opinion can affect public policy (Erikson and Tedin, American Public Opinion, 11th Edition Routledge Publisher, Chapter 1):

1) Rational-Activist Model (or Rational Voter)- people merely vote on the basis of issues for the candidate closest to them on the issues, so those victorious candidates simply enact their own views or the views of the majority of voters. One example was the 1964 presidential election, when about 60% of voters gave a landslide victory to Democratic President Johnson, a moderate liberal, over very conservative Barry Goldwater. Johnson enacted with broad bipartisan support the 1965 Voting Rights Act (finally protecting the African American vote in the South), Medicare (health insurance for the elderly), and Medicaid (health insurance for the poor). Another example was the 1972 presidential election, when about 60% of voters gave a landslide reelection victory to Republican President Richard Nixon, a moderate conservative, over extreme liberal George McGovern. Nixon and his successor Ford kept trying to keep government spending down by vetoing the Democratic Congress’ spending bills, and pursued internationalism instead of the Democratic left-wing’s isolationism and withdrawal of support from American authoritarian allies. A final example is Trump’s victory in 2024, when the public was concerned over our porous southern border and with high inflation; Trump aggressively closed the border in only a few months, and aggressively promoted oil and gas production to reduce energy costs (though his tariffs threaten higher inflation).

2) Political Parties Model- parties offer different platforms, and people vote for the preferred platform. Today’s American parties offer very different party platforms, with Republicans clearly being the more conservative party and the Democrats clearly being the more liberal party. As such, you can vote for a Republican presidential candidate and expect pro-life policies, pro-gun rights, and rejection of LGBTQ initiatives; a Democratic president will do the opposite, enacting pro-choice measures, pro-gun control measures, and backing of transgender policies. Another example of this model is that many Americans have increasingly voted for the same party for President and for Congress, as they view the candidates regardless of office as liberal Democrats or conservative Republicans. The South has therefore realigned from a conservative Democratic majority of officeholders to a Republican majority (in most states).

3) Interest Groups Model- interest groups can serve as a linkage between the public and public officials. You may not even vote, but you are a member of a powerful interest group such as the NRA, the AFL-CIO, or the National Education Association. You depend on those groups to advance your economic and lifestyle choices, they support candidates that essentially mirror your own desires, and those candidates often win election in your local area. Even if your favored candidate loses, those groups will fight to enact congressional legislation and administrative rules that reflect your own desires. This model does not always work, since your views may lose to a more powerful group with more financial resources, such as the business groups or a Republican governor. Also, overall public policy in America may merely reflect which interest groups are most financially powerful, rather than the views of the average American. Examples of interest groups at work are provided by Mississippi in the 1980s. Teachers' groups helped pass the 1982 Education Reform Act, and industry groups helped pass the 1987 Highway Bill four-laning 1,000 miles of roads, both popular with most voters.

4) Delegate Model (or Role-Playing Model)- public officials may perceive themselves as delegates, who enact what their public wants into public policy; so regardless of how people voted on whatever issue or personal characteristic of the candidates, the public official will listen to their constituents. In 1981 our Congressman, moderate white Democrat David Bowen, favored the Democratic tax cut that was the alternative to President Reagan’s tax cut. Reagan went on TV and asked Americans to give his tax cut plan a chance (the economy was bad back then, with high unemployment and inflation) and to call their congressmen. Congressman Bowen got a lot of phone calls, he talked to people who sometimes didn’t even understand that the average person would get more from the Democratic tax plan, but they all said to support the Reagan plan, so he voted for Reagan’s tax cut. So the delegate model can be important, especially when the public is aroused and makes its views known.

5) Sharing Model- officials are drawn from the community, and their own values and attitudes reflect those of their constituents; so many officials can merely vote their own views and end up representing their constituents. The youngest woman (at the time) elected to the state senate in 1990 was my own student Amy Tuck from Maben. A country gal with a BA and MPPA from MSU, she really embodied the values of the average Mississippian. She was anti-tax but pro-education, so she thought hard before supporting the 1992 tax increase for education at all levels; she also chaired a senate committee that repaired many of Mississippi’s bridges. Tuck was elected lieutenant governor as a Democrat, probably because of her overall progressive views, but then got re-elected as a Republican, as partisan Democrats opposed her support for the business community and tort reform and pressured her to back a partisan congressional redistricting measure. Her party switch presaged the state’s move towards a GOP state governmental takeover. Another student alumnus was Scott Ross from West Point, the youngest man at the time elected to the state house; he was a leader in overriding Governor Allain’s veto of the 1987 Highway Bill, which four-laned 1,000 miles of state roads by the end of the century; he also served as a College Board member and then mayor of West Point. Again, he seemed to really embody the views of his community.

The 5 forms of Representation show historically how the representation of the people can occur, and how representatives may NOT consider public opinion. This lecture is based on the book by Hanna Pitkin, The Concept of Representation. University of CA Press, 1967, p.38-112. The 5 forms of representation are:

1) Formalistic- the representative has been authorized to act, so anything they do is representing. Historically, the King of a European country might be crowned by the Pope or the Archbishop or the Nobles, so he is the leader of his country, and anything he does is representing the people of his country. Needless to say, the American colonists in 1776 revolted against such a system and declared independence. Obviously, this type of one-man-rule can degenerate into selfish dictatorship (Iraq’s Saddam Hussein, the “Beloved Leader” of North Korea). Formalistic includes having an election, though, so every time we elect a Congress member or President to office, in a formalistic sense they have been authorized to act, and anything they do is representing us. Any American President (Trump, Biden) is important to people around the world, because they are seen as the representatives of the most powerful and richest nation in the world. The ultimate formalistic act in selecting an American President is the counting of the electoral vote by Congress in January; on January 6 of 2021, Vice President Pence did his constitutional duty while some Trump supporters rioted at the Capitol.

2) Descriptive Representation- this form of representation merely looks at the composition of the representatives and whether it reflects the public's composition (usually defined by geographic areas of demographic traits). The British Parliament of the 1770’s did not include anyone from its colonies, so the Americans felt that their acts were “taxation without representation” and they declared independence. So it is important for a representative body to have some descriptive representation. Democratic Party members are really big on this, talking about the diversity of their party in numerous ways (race, sex, sexual orientation, native Americans, etc.), while Republican Party leaders tend to be heavily white males (in important Congressional committees). However, sometimes a party strong in demographic representation is weak in attitudinal representation. Democrats today have very few moderates in positions of power (former Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia was one of the few moderates, though Pennsylvania Senator Fetterman is an independent thinker), while Republicans have the same problem (Senators Murkowski of Alaska and Collins of Maine act more independently, however), as both parties are so ideologically homogeneous (united) with Democrats being so liberal and Republicans being so conservative (or pro-Trump). Fortunately, both houses of Congress are pretty evenly divided in numbers of Democrats and Republicans, so the ideological mix of Congress as a whole is similar to the American public.

3) Symbolic Representation- the general values of a nation may be represented through important symbols, while public officials might ignore representing the public’s views on specific issues. Examples of important symbols are the flag. Presidents of both parties wrap themselves in the American flag, since it historically has been a unifying symbol which unites all Americans. Does it serve that function today, with athletes taking a knee or some young adults saying that they are not very proud of their country? What do you think? Symbolic representation can be a President giving a speech mentioning an American hero. President Reagan started this tradition in his State of the Union speech, where he singled out a hero who jumped into the Potomac River trying to rescue people from a downed airplane; today, Presidents of both parties single out our military for praise, and our military receive standing ovations from congress members of both parties. Symbolic representation can be a nation that has evolved into a democracy that retains the King or Emperor as a figurehead with no real power, but that British King or Queen (for example) is seen as the symbol of a united nation. Does the United States have any such unifying hero or symbol today, or are we so divided on everything that nothing unites us anymore?

4) Virtual Representation- there is a community of interest and sympathy in feelings and desires between the representative and represented, though people may have no voting rights. An example was the old British Parliament- the British members of Parliament (MP) said that they had a similarity of interests and sympathy with the American colonists, that they all benefitted from a united British Empire, and that the Americans should pay for British troops on their soil, and should restrict their trade with British possessions. Americans did not need to have any representation in the British Parliament, as in this paternalistic sense the British MPs would care for them. Sounds a little like the argument that a slave owner would make to justify the system of slavery? On the other hand, don’t students have virtual representation in the classroom, as the professor looks out for what is best for the students; I can cite the many successes of my student alumni, upholding the quality of my judgement over the views of some students regarding required tests and papers.

5) Representation as Acting For the represented- this is most relevant for a course in public opinion, as the representative is doing what they think the public wants or what they think is in the best interests of the public. So they follow what public opinion says, or what they believe the public would want if they had full information. Doing what the public wants is a Delegate. Doing what the ruler thinks is in the best interests of the public is a Trustee. Mississippi’s political history was troubled before the civil rights movement of the 1960s, as I don’t view the public officials as Acting For the average citizen. While over 35% of the state’s population is African American, before 1967 not one of the 122 state house members or 52 state senators was an African American; indeed, only 7% of voting age African Americans were even registered to vote. Conservative white Delta planters had key leadership positions in the state legislature until 1980, and they kept taxes down and public education poorly funded. Thanks to federal court ordered redistricting the 1980s finally saw the demographic representation of African Americans in the state legislature with the rise of a strong Black Caucus, and the 1990s saw the rise of a competitive Republican Party. The result according to the Mississippi Poll was public policy that better reflected the more progressive views of average Mississippians on domestic issues, such as the 1982 Education Reform Act of Governor William Winter’s, the 1987 Highway Bill, the 1992 tax increase for education at all levels, and the 1992 bond bill for expanded university libraries. Today, unlike the federal level, Mississippi’s state legislature avoids divisive partisanship, as Republican legislative leaders do appoint some Democrats as committee chairs, particularly African American Democrats, so there is some hope of a more inclusive bipartisan public policy.