PRESIDENTIAL JOB RATING, PARTY, IDEOLOGY ATTITUDES

(Week 11)

(Note: these are actual class notes, valuable to those having an excused class absence, or those wishing to review their class notes for the test. Double spaced notes reflect subjects that are so important that they are likely to be asked about on a test.)

A President’s job approval rating is very important, since it tends to predict their ability to get their legislative program through Congress, as well as their likelihood of being re-elected. It is measured by asking: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the current president is handling their job as president?" (Nowadays, a President needs more approvals than disapprovals to gain reelection.) Political scientist Mueller first studied this subject during the Nixon presidency, and he found that five factors affected a President’s job rating. Unfortunately for the President, only one of them seemed to help a President’s popularity, while the other four factors hurt them.

Economic conditions, particularly high unemployment, tend to hurt a President’s popularity. The Great Depression with 25% unemployment caused President Herbert Hoover to lose to Democrat Franklin D. Roosevelt (FDR) in 1932. High unemployment and inflation led to President Carter’s defeat by Republican Ronald Reagan in 1980. A recession resulted in President George Herbert Walker Bush losing to Democrat Bill Clinton in 1992, with Clinton’s campaign slogan, “It’s the Economy, Stupid!” The financial crash of 2008 resulted in Democrat Barack Obama ending the Republican-held presidency of eight years. The pandemic-caused economic shutdown may have led to Trump’s defeat in 2020. Finally, inflation during the Biden administration contributed to Trump’s return to the presidency in 2024. Statistically, Mueller’s study of presidencies before Ford suggested that good economic times do not help a President’s job approval ratings, but I question that finding, especially given the good economies during Reagan’s and Clinton’s re-elections.

A coalition of political minorities hurts a President’s popularity as time goes on. There is a honeymoon period in the first few months of a new presidency, as the press coverage is positive and even those supporting the other candidate give the new President a chance. As time goes on, he makes tough decisions that anger people, and some of these angry voters never come back to support him. As such, the longer the President is in office, the lower his popularity gets. (It can shoot up when he runs for re-election, as voters get to compare him with a real human instead of their ideal, so they choose the lesser of the evils.) The textbook has a great chart that basically shows how every President from Truman to Obama started at a high point in job approval rating, but then their ratings went down (except for Clinton). Truman’s hit a low with the Korean War, Johnson with the Vietnam War, and Nixon with the Watergate scandal. Carter’s and George Walker Bush’s steady popularity declines are classic examples of the coalition of minorities at work, as Carter became viewed as a failed leader given economic and foreign policy crises, and Bush was saddled with two endless unpopular wars (plus the Hurricane Katrina disaster). Even Eisenhower hit two low points with two economic recessions, as did Reagan (with the 1982 recession and his second term Iran-Contra scandal). Ford’s early popularity quickly fell after he pardoned Nixon and faced an economic recession. Even Kennedy saw a declining popularity before his assassination. Obama lost the popularity of his honeymoon period as conservatives came to view him as a liberal. Only Clinton saw a rise in popularity, as the economy boomed and the public reacted against the Republican impeachment based on a “mere” sex scandal (in their view). Biden and Trump (in his first term) also suffered popularity declines, but neither had much of a honeymoon and for most of their presidencies they were more unpopular than popular (Biden’s rating dropped late in his first year, and Trump’s ratings fell after Covid started.

An unpopular prolonged war hurts a President’s popularity. The classic cases are Truman’s Korean War and Johnson’s Vietnam War, which caused both Presidents to refrain from running for re-election. Truman was so unpopular that the popular culture joked about a possible military coup by a figure like General Douglas MacArthur (commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific during World War 2). Truman had fired MacArthur as our military leader in the Korean War, since the general had wanted to “win” in Korea by bombing China, but the general decided not to run for President and another general (Eisenhower) won instead. Johnson in 1968 came in a weak first in the New Hampshire Democratic primary (anti-war candidate Eugene McCarthy came in a strong second), prompting Johnson to cede the nomination to his Vice President, Hubert Humphrey. George Walker Bush’s popularity steadily fell as the Afghanistan and Iraq wars dragged on. While he beat the liberal John Kerry in 2004, his party lost both houses of Congress in 2006 and then lost the presidency two years later. Armchair analysts have criticized Obama, Trump, and Biden’s withdrawals from these conflicts, but it is hard to stay in conflicts when public opinion is tired of them.

A major scandal hurts the President’s job rating. The classic example is how Watergate killed Nixon’s political life. Here is a guy who wins every state except for one (liberal Massachusetts) in his 1972 re-election bid, and then with daily press coverage of the unfolding Watergate scandal and coverup, his popularity steadily falls. Finally, after the Supreme Court unanimously (including his three appointed judges) holds that he must release the taped conversations he had had in the Oval Office, and those tapes showed that he directed a cover-up of the Watergate break-in by his campaign officials, Senators of his own party told him that he had lost the one-third vote needed to be acquitted by the Senate of a likely House impeachment, and he resigned. Another scandal that hurt a President was the Iran-Contra scandal, which hurt Reagan in his second term. Reagan was very anti-communist, and the Central American nation of Nicaragua had had a communist government, which was being opposed by the anti-communist Contra rebels. A White House National Security aide, Marine Oliver North, directed a trading arms with Iran for our Mideast hostages (held by terrorists linked to Iran) scheme, overcharged the Iranian government, and diverted the profits to the Contra rebels, violating a federal law that barred the U.S. from providing military aid to any group in Nicaragua. Reagan avoided impeachment by coming clean, even letting Congressional investigators read his private diary, and he was so likeable that nobody had the heart to impeach him, especially as his staff took the fall for him as they were true believers in him and his conservative philosophy. After Reagan left the Presidency and was suffering from Alzheimer’s disease, the Special Prosecutor interviewed him, “Mr. Reagan, do you recall being President from 1981 through 1989?” “Well, they told me that I was….” Needless to say, any thought of prosecuting him ended. Any other scandals affecting Presidents that you can think of?

Rally around the Flag is the one factor that actually helps a President’s popularity, as people support their nation’s President in a time of crisis, though that help is only temporary. President Kennedy faced the Bay of Pigs disaster, when he supported anti-communist Cubans living in the U.S. going back to Cuba to try to overthrow the communist Castro government, but then Kennedy got cold feet and withdrew U.S. military air support of them, resulting in the anti-communist Cubans being captured and imprisoned by Castro’s military. Kennedy’s popularity actually went up, despite this land invasion at the Bay of Pigs being crushed! This was the high point of the Cold War, as the Communist East Germans built the Berlin Wall in 1961 around the free city of West Berlin (itself located in communist East Germany) to keep their people from fleeing to the West. In the western hemisphere, the USSR sent short-range nuclear missiles to Cuba in 1962 (after the Bay of Pigs) resulting in a U.S. naval blockade of Cuba and the threat to use military force to eliminate those missiles, and Kennedy’s popularity went up. A classic example of this rally around the flag effect was the Persian Gulf war of 1990-91, when Saddam Hussein’s Iraq invaded and conquered the small nation of Kuwait, and President George Herbert Walker Bush sent half a million American troops to Saudi Arabia, and then kicked Saddam back to Bagdad with minimal American casualties. His classic speech, “This aggression will not stand,” reflected America’s concern over the Hitler parallel of aggression against neighboring nations leading to a world war. Bush’s popularity soared to 90%! But the temporary effort was reflected in his re-election loss, due to a recession. Another classic example of this rally around the flag was his son George Walker Bush’s reaction to the 9-11 terrorist attack on the Twin Towers of the World Trade Center and the Pentagon itself. Standing in the rubble of the World Trade Center, Bush vowed action, “ “And the people who knocked these buildings down will hear all of us soon,” as toiling emergency workers chanted “USA, USA.” In a televised speech warning other nations to rid themselves of terrorist camps, Bush drew the line: “You are either with us, or you’re with the terrorists.” While’s Bush strong anti-terrorist policy won him re-election, it did not slow his post-election popularity decline.

Examples of popular Presidents over the entire course of their Presidencies are: 1) Franklin D. Roosevelt. He was a great speaker over the radio, who rallied the American people during the Great Depression with his inauguration speech: “The only thing we have to fear is...fear itself — nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.” His solution to advance was the New Deal liberal economic programs, which helped him win an unprecedented four terms. He was also an inspirational leader during World War 2, where after the Pearl Harbor sneak attack by the Japanese on our Hawaiian naval base he addressed Congress asking for a declaration of war: “YESTERDAY, December 7, 1941, a date which will live in infamy the United States of America was suddenly and deliberately attacked by naval and air forces of the Empire of Japan.” World War 2 was a Total War where we sought the Unconditional Surrender of our enemies, when men were drafted and women worked in the factories, and the U.S. led the salvation of western civilization from the threats of Nazism, fascism, and Imperial Japan.

2) Dwight Eisenhower. He was the popular war hero (Commander of Allied forces in Europe during World War 2), a very non-partisan kind of leader (both parties had sought him for their presidential nominee in 1948), who delivered peace and prosperity, and put the interests of the entire nation before any ideological or partisan group. 3) John Kennedy was the youngest elected President (43), he had a cultured wife Jackie and two cute kids, and he had served in Naval combat in World War 2 (PT109 movie depicted how his boat had been sunk and he had led his men to survive on an island). Kennedy was able to joke with reporters, and his idealistic programs such as the Peace Corps led people to call his Presidency a time of Camelot (fictitious King Arthur’s court). He was ideologically inclusive, being tough on Communism but pro-Civil Rights.

Examples of unpopular Presidents include: 1) Richard Nixon. Due to Watergate, his popularity reached a low of 24% before his resignation (he was known for his “I am not a crook” speech claiming that he had not obstructed justice). However, even Nixon did not fire the FBI head, he left office graciously, and as Vice President in 1960 he had presided over the counting of the electoral votes that gave Kennedy the presidency over himself; thus, he backed an orderly transfer of power. He also did not demand an investigation of voting irregularities in the states of Illinois, Missouri, and Texas, states controlled by Democrats, which could have given him the presidency in 1960, because he did not want to tarnish America’s image among the emerging democracies in the Third World. Plus, Nixon was known for his Détente foreign policy (as we’ll discuss later), so he looks better today. 2) Harry Truman, who reached a low of 22% during the Korean War. Yet Truman is regarded as one of our nation’s top 10 Great Presidents, due to his anti-communist Containment foreign policy (NATO, Marshall Plan) where he sought and gained support from isolationist Republican Senators. So popularity isn’t everything! 3) George Walker Bush, whose popularity fell to 25% after the 2008 financial meltdown. Yet Bush also looks better in retrospect. While Trump was bashing foreigners, Bush is remembered for preventing average Americans from retaliating against any of their fellow citizens who looked Mideastern by visiting a mosque three days after 9-11 and basically saying that we were not at war with the Islamic religion, just the terrorist extremists. Bush’s memoir honestly credits Obama with economic and political smarts during the 2008 campaign, good judgment that fellow Republican John McCain lacked. After Trump’s dark inauguration speech where he decried the American Carnage of closed factories, Bush (sitting next to Michelle Obama) candidly remarked, “That was some weird shit.” Bush as President sought to help minorities with his No Child Left Behind education policy, and he was praised for his anti-AIDS African fight. Today, he enjoys painting.

Where do Obama, Trump, and Biden fall, in terms of overall popularity throughout their terms? Well, Obama was Average, which I define as being about 50% and never falling below 40%. A very bright and articulate person, deeply committed to fighting “income inequality,” the decent human being Obama after leaving the Presidency pointed out that our country’s greatest problem is that we need to try to listen to and understand people who disagree with us, and we can disagree politely without hating the other person; also, we need to stop watching and reading only those news sources that agree with our own opinions. Trump is rated Below Average, which I define as below 50% average popularity but never falling below 30%. Indeed, Trump was never above 50% in popularity. Trump and Obama were both the victims of polarization, as identifiers of their own party loved them, and identifiers of the other party disliked (even hated) them. “You lie,” yelled a Republican Congressman at Obama during one of his State of the Union addresses, and Trump was treated like a Russian agent by some Democrats and impeached twice. Years ago, a President’s job approval rating had to be above 50% in order to gain re-election. Today, as long as his positives outnumber his negatives, he can gain re-election (so I now exclude no opinions from my calculations). Biden was somewhere between Average and Below Average, somewhere between Obama and Trump. Only in his first half-year was his approval rating above 50%, and after that it hovered at about 40. Indeed, as a percentage of the two-party vote, Biden’s popularity was similar to defeated Democratic presidential nominee Adlai Stevenson in the 1950s, accounting for why Democrats dumped him from the ticket in favor of Kamala Harris. (An excellent source of presidential job ratings is The American Presidency Project at UC Santa Barbara.)

These topics are important to know for the final exam, so we have run out of time for the other subjects. They are in the text. Also, I’ll be teaching a course in Political Parties this spring as a prelude to the congressional elections. We have already talked about the subject of Ideology, which is also covered in the textbook.