DOMESTIC ECONOMIC ISSUES- PUBLIC OPINION ON POLICIES

(Week 4)

(Note: these are actual class notes, valuable to those having an excused class absence, or those wishing to review their class notes for the test. Double spaced notes reflect subjects that are so important that they are likely to be asked about on a test.)

Americans place a high priority on domestic economic issues, historically more of a priority than are foreign affairs. Pollsters sometimes ask open-ended and closed-ended priority questions, such as “What is the most important problem facing our country,” or “what is the most important issue that will affect your vote for president.” Two polls during the Trump presidency found that the economy and health care were two of the top three issues to Americans. The economy was measured by the word “economy” in one poll, and by the words “jobs and economic growth” in the other poll. “Health care” was the term used in both polls. Two polls during the last two years of the Obama presidency found that the economy and health care were the top two issues with the term “health care” used in both polls and the terms “the economy” and “the economy and jobs” used in different polls. Gallup polls during the Biden Administration in 2023 also show the importance of the economy in general and inflation (cited by 20-25% of people), but "the government" or "poor leadership" makes up about 20% (while health care is no longer a top issue). So obviously, Americans put a high priority on economic issues.

Historically, the state of the economy has affected the outcomes of presidential elections. The Great Depression unseated incumbent Republican Herbert Hoover in 1932 and contributed to FDR’s four terms as President as he enacted his New Deal liberal domestic economic programs. A weak economy in 1976 helped cost Republican Gerald Ford the presidency, and high inflation and unemployment unseated Democratic President Jimmy Carter in 1980. A booming economy and Ronald Reagan’s Morning in America campaign got him re-elected in a landslide in 1984. A recession under President George Herbert Walker Bush got him unseated by Democrat Bill Clinton in 1992, and a booming economy got Clinton re-elected in 1996 despite an emerging sex scandal. The financial crash of 2008 cost the Republicans the presidency as Democrat Obama beat war hero John McCain. (Indeed, one poll in 2008 found that 75% of adults listed the economy as the top issue.) A pandemic-related economic crash in 2020 may have contributed to Trump’s loss (though voters rated him highly on the economy).

Historically, health care has been so important that it has produced major public policy programs. President Truman pushed for a national health care plan, but conservatives in both parties of Congress killed it. President Kennedy got the majority Democratic Party in Congress to add liberals to a key committee considering this issue, and President Johnson got both Medicare (health insurance for the elderly) and Medicaid (health insurance for the poor) enacted. President Clinton was not able to enact “HillaryCare” after conservatives and health care interest groups opposed it, but President Obama successfully enacted the Affordable Care Act (ObamaCare) for the working poor. His successor and Republicans generally have not been successful at repealing it. Even a Republican like President George Walker Bush expanded Medicare to include prescription drug coverage.

Other issues can compete with these domestic economic issues when major events occur in the international or domestic arena. For instance, terrorism can become the top priority of Americans after a major terrorist attack. After the September 11, 2001 terrorist attack on the twin towers of the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, 59% of Americans listed “the threat of terrorism” as their top concern. After the 2015 terrorist attacks in Paris and in California, the “threat of terrorism” (closed-ended item) or “terrorism/Islamic Extremism/ISIS/Al Qaeda” (open-ended item) were among the top two priorities in two polls. President Bush won re-election in 2004 as the terrorist-fighter who would protect Americans kind of leader. A never-ending war can also become a top priority to Americans. The Vietnam War led to President Johnson even refusing to run for re-election in 1968. The long “war in Iraq” was the top issue for Americans in a 2007 poll, explaining how Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress the previous year during Bush’s Republican presidency. The Coronavirus pandemic was one of the top two issues in late 2020, contributing to Trump’s defeat. A June 2021 poll yielded yet another important issue that nearly rivaled economic issues- “the government/poor leadership.” That rising cynicism towards the government helped explain Trump’s victory as an outsider in 2016, and explained why both Republicans and African Americans showed some reluctance to get the vaccine.

Not only do Americans place a high priority on the government dealing with key domestic economic issues, but they also favor the government spending more money on such programs. Nationally, over 70% of Americans desire that the federal government should spend more money than is currently spent on Education. Another priority for spending money is Health Care, which we have already talked about. These General Social Survey polls generally ask whether the federal government is spending “too little, too much, or about the right amount” on a list of national programs. They used to have a leading question before each of these items, such as: “We are faced with many problems in this country, none of which can be solved easily or inexpensively. I'm going to name some of these problems, and for each one I'd like you to tell me whether you think we're spending too much money on it, too little money, or about the right amount.” This leading introduction did not seem to inflate the “spend more” responses, as the textbook on page 94 shows that when respondents were told that such a response “might require a tax increase to pay for it,” the results remained very similar. Some examples of how the federal government has responded to the public’s desire to spend more on education are: the 1965 Elementary and Secondary Education Act of President Johnson, which provided some federal funding support to public schools across the nation; the No Child Left Behind testing requirements of President George Walker Bush, which sought to improve testing of disadvantaged youths; federal loans and grants to college students, started in 1958 under Eisenhower, greatly expanded under Johnson, and constantly expanded since.

Even in a conservative state like Mississippi, the public prefers that government spend more on key domestic economic issues. The Mississippi Poll cautioned Mississippi respondents that: “As you know, most of the money government spends comes from the taxes you and others pay. For each of the following, please tell me whether you think state and local government in Mississippi should be spending more, less, or about the same as now." Since 1981, the top issues where large majorities favored spending more state money were “public elementary and secondary education,” and “health care and hospitals”, consistent with the national patterns for federal spending. Two other top issues were “streets and highways” and “industrial growth and development” with the latter consistent with the economy being a top national priority. The most important spending priority of these four programs was public elementary and secondary education. A fifth important spending priority has historically been public higher education.

Mississippi programs implementing these key state spending desires have been: the 1982 Education Reform Act of Governor William Winter’s, which established public kindergartens, a compulsory school attendance law, and higher education standards and higher teacher pay, funded by a tax increase; the 1987 Highway Bill, which four-laned 1,000 miles of state highways by the end of the century, which required a gasoline tax hike; the 1992 tax increase for education at all levels, which prevented additional funding cuts during a recession; the 1992 bond bill to modernize and expand all eight universities’ libraries; the expensive state Medicaid program that receives generous matching funds from the federal government.

Education is an important issue, but few polls about it have been conducted in the past two decades. Those polls showed that Americans did not want to just throw money at the problem, but that a majority supported higher standards, such as mandatory teacher testing in the public schools, national standardized tests for students, and even school vouchers whereby parents could send their kids to other schools. Vouchers is a controversial and evenly split subject, and public support would probably increase if the financial vouchers given to parents was limited to public schools. Interesting that when Clinton was governor of Arkansas, he pursued this kind of ideologically inclusive strategy, not merely increasing teacher pay but also taking on the teachers’ union by demanding higher teacher quality.

Health care is an important issue that has more recent polls. A majority of Americans support universal coverage (all Americans covered) by the government, especially a Medicare For All Who Want It alternative. Historically, they have favored a universal plan that would cover high-cost items, such as catastrophic illnesses and nursing home care. At the least they want government to cover all children under 18. They don’t want the elderly to make sacrifices such as by raising the eligibility age, but they want the wealthier and employers to pay for any more generous national health care plan. A majority do favor some restrictions, such as banning abortions from coverage and banning “illegal” immigrants from the program. ObamaCare initially drew mixed reviews, but Republicans were not able to repeal it. A majority of the public likes the law’s preventing insurance companies from denying coverage to, dropping coverage for, or charging more for people who are “sick”, “seriously ill”, who have “pre-existing conditions,” or who have a “medical history.” They like the law’s prohibition on companies from imposing lifetime coverage caps (MSU professors’ plan used to have a $1 million lifetime limit, which one cancer victim reached.). A majority also favored the law’s requirement that companies must cover a parent’s child until the age of 26. The law’s requirement that everyone must obtain insurance or pay a fine was not popular, but Congress repealed that requirement.

Social Security is an important issue, but some reform is needed to keep it funded due to the aging of the population. A majority of Americans oppose raising the Social Security tax rate, reducing benefits for future retirees, raising the retirement age, and reducing the benefits to people who retire early. A majority favors sacrifices on the part of the higher income, by taxing all income and not just the first $106,000, and imposing a sliding benefits scale where the wealthy would get fewer benefits and the poor would get more. Polls are divided on whether there should be a reduction in the cost-of-living adjustment for everyone.

Environmental issues are a concern of most Americans, though probably not as salient as the issues we already talked about. Most Americans express “personal concern” over climate change, believe that “global warming” is a problem, and believe that the environment’s condition will be worse for “the next generation.” A majority favors “protecting the environment” over “economic growth,” and would even favor more spending and higher consumer costs to reduce “air pollution” and prevent “further damaging changes in climate.”

Other issues. Most Americans favor balancing the federal budget, but are opposed to cutting expensive programs that we have already mentioned. Attitudes towards welfare programs depend on the wording of the question, with most Americans opposing “welfare” (who they view as the unworthy lazy and cheats) but supporting “programs for the poor” (who they see as people hurt through no fault of their own). During the Trump years, a majority opposed cutting the National Endowment for the Arts, the National Endowment for the Humanities, and the Corporation for Public Broadcasting. A majority of Americans have consistently favored raising the minimum wage, but businesses have pointed out that that plan would raise consumer prices and likely increase unemployment. Most Americans support a line-item veto for the President, which most state governors do have. When Mississippi considered term limits for state legislators (2 terms), a large majority initially favored it, but when reminded that they would not be able “to reelect someone doing a good job,” opinions became mixed and later more negative, and the measure failed in the legislature. Welfare reform consistent with President Clinton’s philosophy of welfare being “a helping hand, not a way of life” was supported by most Americans in the 1990s, as a majority favored a lifetime limit, required job training, and no aid to immigrants; a majority also favored a helping hand enacted by many states, which was providing child care, paying commuting costs, and keep funding kids.

Less salient issues to most Americans. Historically, on the most important problem, only about 1% of Americans have mentioned such volatile issues as guns, gun control, abortion, or LGBTQ rights (2-3% in 2023). That suggests that much of our divisive political debate in Washington is driven by ideological interest groups that care strongly about such issues.