WEEK 4: PARTY IN THE ELECTORATE

A famous political science scholar Frank Sorauf argued that a political party should not merely be regarded as the formal organization recognized by government bodies, but also as adults (or voters) who psychologically identify with the political party (termed party identification), and also as the public officials who bear the party label. As such, Sorauf viewed political parties as three-headed beasts: party in the electorate, party organization, and party in government. This week we’ll talk about who is most likely in the electorate to identify as Democrats or as Republicans. Party identification is measured with a 7-point scale, and we will generally include Independents leaning towards one of the two parties as partisans of that party, since they vote in as partisan a manner as the Weak Democrats and Weak Republicans. We group our discussion by important demographic groups.

Race. African-Americans are heavily Democratic in party identification, since they are one of the most liberal groups in America on a diverse range of policy issues (see my Public Opinion class notes). A 2020 Pew study of registered voters found that 83% of African Americans were Democrats and only 10% were Republican. Whites on the other hand were more divided, with 53% being Republican and 42% Democratic. The remainder of both races were Independents.

(Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/06/02/democratic-edge-in-party-identification-narrows-slightly/) Since most partisans vote about 90% for their party’s candidates, this resulted in 91% of African Americans nationally voting for Joe Biden, while only 43% of whites backed Biden (p. 13, Buchanan and Kapeluck, 2021, The 2020 Presidential Election in the South). The most racially polarized state was Mississippi, where 94% of blacks backed Biden, compared to only 18% of whites. Given the large African American populations in the South, this has resulted in Democratic primaries in the South being much more biracial in terms of voters compared to the Republican primaries. About 38% of Democratic primary voters in the South are African American, and African Americans reach a majority in the states of Mississippi, South Carolina, Alabama, and Georgia (p. 44, Buchanan/Kapeluck textbook). As such, an increasing number of Democratic gubernatorial and U.S. senate candidates in the South are African American (Mike Espy for Senate in Mississippi, Stacey Abrams for governor in Georgia). Whites overwhelmingly dominate Republican primaries, but ideologically conservative African Americans can win GOP primaries (Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson of North Carolina).

Hispanics (Latinos) and Asian Americans are other important racial groups, and both lean Democratic. Pew found that Democrats had a 63% to 29% advantage over Republicans among Hispanics, and a 72% to 17% advantage among Asian Americans. Hispanics are especially important in states like Texas and Florida, where they comprise 32% and 19% respectively of the Democratic primary electorate (p. 45, textbook). However, Hispanics are not as monolithic as African Americans, and anti-communist Cuban Americans in Florida actually lean in a Republican direction. In 2020 56% of Florida Cuban Americans voted for Trump, compared to only 31% of Puerto Rican Floridians (p. 189 textbook). There is also some diversity among Texas Hispanics, as Trump improved his vote totals in “most of the heavily Latino counties at or near the Mexico border” (p. 272 textbook). Some Republican officials in those states have worked to appeal to Hispanics, with Texas governor George Bush speaking a little Spanish, current Texas governor Greg Abbott boasting that his wife was the first Hispanic First Lady of Texas, and former Florida governor Jeb Bush meeting his future Mexican wife while working in Mexico.

Democrats have also become the majority party among the college educated, a reversal of party fortunes from three decades ago. The Pew poll found that 57% of college graduates are Democrats, compared to 37% who are Republican. The Democratic advantage goes up to 61-33% for those having some graduate school education. Republicans have a 48%-44% edge among those with high school diplomas or less. The GOP edge among this less educated group increases to 62-31% when focusing only on whites. Many believe that the college experience is a broadening and liberalizing experience. The Erikson and Tedin textbook in the Public Opinion class documented a 12-14% increased liberalism among college students over their college careers when it came to lifestyle issues such as abortion, same sex marriage, and legalized marijuana (p. 135). Perhaps the educational environment provided by college professors plays some role, as by 2014 fully 60% of professors were liberal and only 13% were conservative (p. 136). Finally, many college graduates are working in high tech, information, and social services related careers that may benefit from more government spending and programs. The emerging GOP advantage among those lacking a college degree is also a fascinating development, likely enhanced by Trump’s blue collar policy orientations and politically incorrect style. Republicans also continue to be favored by the higher income with 54% of the over $100,000 income group voting for Trump and only 42% for Biden (CNN exit poll). However, Biden won the under $100,000 group by a 56-43% margin.

Age is another important factor with the young being more Democratic and the old being more Republican. A majority of 54% of millennials aged 24-39 were Democrats, while 38% were Republican (Pew poll). The other age groups are pretty closely divided in partisan identifications. These patterns are confirmed by a CNN exit poll for President in 2020, as Biden won a 60% to 36% victory among those under 30, while other age groups saw closer partisan divisions, and those 65 and older narrowly favored Trump 52-47%. As we discussed in the Public Opinion class, young people (especially in Mississippi) tend to be more liberal than older people on a number of lifestyle and other issues. It is unclear what lingering effects Democratic governors’ tendencies to enact strict Covid restrictions will have on the young, as some college chants of F--- Joe Biden may merely reflect college campuses in more conservative areas. Polls in November 2023 suggested Biden losing some of his youth support, as Trump was virtually tied with him among those under 30; some young believe that Biden is too old, while others criticize his support for Israel in the war in Gaza.

A gender gap emerged in the United States with the election of conservative Ronald Reagan. Pew found that 56% of women were Democrats and 38% were Republican. Men, on the other hand, were 50% Republican and 42% Democratic. Nationally, 55% of women voted for Biden compared to only 46% of men, and this gender gap in voting was found in every southern state (textbook, page 13). In the Public Opinion class we talked about how women tend to favor more compassionate social welfare types of programs, and how they tend to oppose the use of force (being anti-death penalty, anti-guns, anti-war) compared to men. Indeed, the Democratic advantage is especially evident among college educated women, where 65% were Democratic and only 30% Republican (the 2020 Pew poll). This helps to explain why so many commentators and journalists on the liberal cable networks CNN and MSNBC are women.

There are some big partisan differences between people living in urban versus rural areas, though some of those differences reflect these other demographic differences in who lives in such areas. Democrats had a 62-31% advantage among urban residents nationally, while Republicans had a 58-35% advantage among rural residents (Pew). Fully 65% of urban residents voted for Biden, compared to only 38% of rural residents (text, p. 13). The textbook does a great job of discussing these voting differences within individual states, such as in Virginia and Texas. What kind of area do you live in, and do you see these patterns existing in your state?

Finally, religion plays a partisan role. Historically, Jews were about 80% Democratic, Catholics were about 70% Democratic, and Protestants outside the South were about 60% Republican. However, in this century Catholics have been trending towards an even split between the two parties (Erikson and Tedin, p. 205). Today, one of the biggest religious splits is between the Secular non-churchgoers and the Evangelical (born again) Protestant Churchgoers. About 64% of the Seculars are Democrats, compared to only 18% of Evangelicals (p. 206, Erikson-Tedin). So, Seculars are an important component of the modern Democratic Party, while Evangelicals (also known as the Religious Right) are important in today’s Republican Party.

Turnout is yet another factor that the two parties have to be concerned about. Historically, turnout has been higher among more Republican demographic groups, such as whites and people older in age. Those demographic differences persisted in 2020. Another problem for Democrats is that most states have some restrictions on felons voting, even after they have served their sentences. Mississippi bars anyone convicted of 23 crimes from voting, unless their voting rights have been restored by the legislature. A Florida initiative restored voting rights to felons, though the Republican-controlled state legislature amended that law to ensure that all former felons had paid all of their outstanding fines and made restitution. The former Democratic governor of Virginia simply pardoned every felon who had served their sentence, but that state now has a Republican governor. In California, felons can vote if they have served their sentences and parole. Mississippi’s state legislature is currently looking at their felony voting requirements. It should be noted that once someone is on the voting rolls, they can be called for jury duty, and felony convictions typically require a unanimous jury vote. One positive for Democrats was that the Covid situation in 2020 led most states to make it easier for people to vote, as most enacted easier mail-in and early in-person voting options. Turnout in 2020 increased in every state, and was the highest since at least 1980 (and perhaps 1960). While scholars have questioned whether higher turnout automatically benefits the Democrats, our textbook found a high relationship between southern states with high turnout and Biden’s vote totals (p. 310). Republican-controlled state legislatures across the country are being accused of rolling back some of those easier methods of voting, but perhaps some are just going back to pre-pandemic practices. Stacey Abrams of Georgia did a great job of increasing voter registration and turnout among Democratic groups, and Democrats won both of that state’s U.S. Senate seats in 2020. The textbook indicates that Mississippi has a similar effort designed to increase voter registration, called Mississippi Votes (they also have internships and jobs available).