WEEK 4: PARTY IN THE ELECTORATE

A famous political science scholar Frank Sorauf argued that a political party should not merely be regarded as the formal organization recognized by government bodies, but also as adults (or voters) who psychologically identify with the political party (termed party identification), and also as the public officials who bear the party label. As such, Sorauf viewed political parties as three-headed beasts: party in the electorate, party organization, and party in government. This week we’ll talk about who is most likely in the electorate to identify as Democrats or as Republicans. Party identification is measured with a 7-point scale, and we will generally include Independents leaning towards one of the two parties as partisans of that party, since they vote in as partisan a manner as the Weak Democrats and Weak Republicans. We group our discussion by important demographic groups.

Race. African-Americans are heavily Democratic in party identification, since they are one of the most liberal groups in America on a diverse range of policy issues (see my Public Opinion class notes). A 2025 Pew study of found of American adults found that 71% of African Americans were Democrats and only 19% were Republican (a 5% GOP gain since 2020). Whites on the other hand were more divided, with 57% being Republican and 38% Democratic. The remainder of both races were Independents.

(Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/06/02/democratic-edge-in-party-identification-narrows-slightly/) Since most partisans vote about 90% for their party’s candidates, this resulted in 86% of African Americans nationally voting for Kamala Harris, while only 42% of whites backed her (2024 CNN exit poll). The most racially polarized state in the previous presidential election was Mississippi, where 94% of blacks backed Biden, compared to only 18% of whites (Democrats lost ground in Mississippi, as Harris won 82% of blacks and only 17% of whites; Fox News Voter Analysis). Given the large African American populations in the South, this has resulted in Democratic primaries in the South being much more biracial in terms of voters compared to the Republican primaries. About 38% of Democratic primary voters in the South are African American, and African Americans reach a majority in states like Mississippi, South Carolina, Alabama, and Georgia (p. 44, Buchanan/Kapeluck book, The 2020 Presidential Election in the South). As such, an increasing number of Democratic gubernatorial and U.S. senate candidates in the South are African American (Mike Espy for Senate in Mississippi, Stacey Abrams for governor in Georgia). Whites overwhelmingly dominate Republican primaries, but ideologically conservative African Americans can win GOP primaries (Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson of North Carolina).

Hispanics (Latinos) and Asian Americans are other important racial groups, and both lean Democratic. Pew in 2025 found that Democrats had a 52% to 33% advantage over Republicans among Hispanics, and a 56% to 38% advantage among Asian Americans. Hispanics are especially important in states like Texas and Florida, where they comprise 32% and 19% respectively of the Democratic primary electorate (p. 45, Buchanan/Kapeluck book). However, Hispanics are not as monolithic as African Americans, and anti-communist Cuban Americans in Florida actually lean in a Republican direction. In 2020 56% of Florida Cuban Americans voted for Trump, compared to only 31% of Puerto Rican Floridians (p. 189 Buchanan/Kapeluck). There is also some diversity among Texas Hispanics, as Trump improved his vote totals in 2020 in “most of the heavily Latino counties at or near the Mexico border” (p. 272 Buchanan/Kapeluck). Some Republican officials in those states have worked to appeal to Hispanics, with former Texas governor George Bush speaking a little Spanish, current Texas governor Greg Abbott boasting that his wife was the first Hispanic First Lady of Texas, and former Florida governor Jeb Bush meeting his future Mexican wife while working in Mexico.

Democrats have also become the majority party among the college educated, a reversal of party fortunes from three decades ago. The 2025 Pew poll found that 55% of college graduates are Democrats, compared to 40% who are Republican. The Democratic advantage goes up to 59-35% for those having some graduate school education. Republicans have a 49%-40% edge among those with high school diplomas or less. The GOP edge among this less educated group increases when focusing only on whites. Many believe that the college experience is a broadening and liberalizing experience. The Erikson and Tedin textbook in the Public Opinion class documented a 12-14% increased liberalism among college students over their college careers when it came to lifestyle issues such as abortion, same sex marriage, and legalized marijuana (p. 138, American Public Opinion, 11th edition). Perhaps the educational environment provided by college professors plays some role, as by 2016 fully 60% of professors were liberal and only 13% were conservative (p. 139). Finally, many college graduates are working in high tech, information, and social services related careers that may benefit from more government spending and programs. The emerging GOP advantage among those lacking a college degree is also a fascinating development, likely enhanced by Trump’s blue collar policy orientations and politically incorrect style. Income, however, has less effect on party ties today. In 2020, Trump did win 54% of the over $100,000 income group to only 42% for Biden, and Biden won the under $100,000 group by a 56-43% margin. But patterns were reversed in 2024, as Harris won 51% of the over $100,000 group to 47% for Trump, and Trump won 50% of the under $50,000 group to 48% for Harris (CNN exit polls).

Age is another important factor with the young being more Democratic and the old being more Republican. The 2025 Pew poll found that 49% of the 18-29 year olds were Democrats, while 43% were Republicans (Democrats had a wider edge of 55-37% in 2020) The other age groups are more closely divided, though Republicans in 2025 did have a 51-42% edge among the 50-64 age group and a 48-44 edge among the 65 and older group. These patterns are confirmed by two CNN exit polls for recent presidential elections. In 2020, Biden won a 60% to 36% victory among those under 30, while middle age groups saw closer partisan divisions, and those 65 and older narrowly favored Trump 52-47%. However, age differences declined in 2024, as Harris' edge over Trump was only 54-43% among the under 30, and Trump's edge was only 50-49 among the 65 and older. As we discussed in the Public Opinion class, young people (especially in Mississippi) tend to be more liberal than older people on a number of lifestyle and other issues.

A gender gap emerged in the United States with the election of conservative Ronald Reagan. Pew in 2025 found that 51% of women were Democrats and 41% were Republican. Men, on the other hand, were 53% Republican and 39% Democratic (a 5% GOP gain among men since 2020). Nationally, 53% of women voted for Harris compared to only 43% of men (CNN exit poll). In the Public Opinion class we talked about how women tend to favor more compassionate social welfare types of programs, and how they tend to oppose the use of force (being anti-death penalty, anti-guns, anti-war) compared to men. Indeed, the Democratic advantage is especially evident among college educated women, where 65% were Democratic and only 30% Republican (a 2020 Pew poll). This helps to explain why so many commentators and journalists on the liberal cable networks CNN and MSNBC are women.

There are some big partisan differences between people living in urban versus rural areas, though some of those differences reflect these other demographic differences in who lives in such areas. Democrats had a 62-31% advantage among urban residents nationally, while Republicans had a 58-35% advantage among rural residents (2020 Pew poll). Fully 60% of urban residents voted for Harris, compared to only 34% of rural residents (CNN exit poll). These urban-rural differences are especially evident in states like Virginia and Texas. What kind of area do you live in, and do you see these patterns existing in your state?

Finally, religion plays a partisan role. Historically, Jews were about 80% Democratic, Catholics were about 70% Democratic, and Protestants outside the South were about 60% Republican. However, in this century Catholics have been trending towards an even split between the two parties (Erikson and Tedin, p. 205). Today, one of the biggest religious splits is between the Secular non-churchgoers and the Evangelical (born again) Protestant Churchgoers. About 72% of the Seculars are Democrats, compared to only 14% of Evangelicals (p. 207, Erikson-Tedin). So, Seculars are an important component of the modern Democratic Party, while Evangelicals (also known as the Religious Right) are important in today’s Republican Party.

Turnout is yet another factor that the two parties have to be concerned about. Historically, turnout has been higher among more Republican demographic groups, such as whites and people older in age. Those demographic differences persisted in 2020 and 2024. Another problem for Democrats is that most states have some restrictions on felons voting, even after they have served their sentences. Mississippi bars anyone convicted of 23 crimes from voting, unless their voting rights have been restored by the legislature. A Florida initiative restored voting rights to felons, though the Republican-controlled state legislature amended that law to ensure that all former felons had paid all of their outstanding fines and made restitution. The former Democratic governor of Virginia simply pardoned every felon who had served their sentence. In California, felons can vote if they have served their sentences and parole. Mississippi’s state legislature is currently looking at their felony voting requirements. It should be noted that once someone is on the voting rolls, they can be called for jury duty, and felony convictions typically require a unanimous jury vote. One positive for Democrats was that the Covid situation in 2020 led most states to make it easier for people to vote, as most enacted easier mail-in and early in-person voting options. Turnout in 2020 increased in every state, and was the highest since at least 1980 (and perhaps 1960); it remained high in 2024. While scholars have questioned whether higher turnout automatically benefits the Democrats, our book found a high relationship between southern states with high turnout and Biden’s vote totals (Buchanan/Kapeluck p. 310). Republican-controlled state legislatures across the country are being accused of rolling back some of those easier methods of voting, but perhaps some are just going back to pre-pandemic practices. Stacey Abrams of Georgia did a great job of increasing voter registration and turnout among Democratic groups, and Democrats won both of that state’s U.S. Senate seats in 2020. Mississippi has a similar effort designed to increase voter registration, called Mississippi Votes (they also have internships and jobs available).