CONGRESSIONAL AND STATE CAMPAIGNS AND PARTIES

(Weeks 12-13)

The following real-world examples of important themes are drawn verbatim from my unpublished book. More recent examples will be discussed more fully in my Fall Southern Politics class. The references cited are on-line at:

http://sds17.pspa.msstate.edu/classes/southern/references.htm

1)      A divided majority party, especially in the face of public discontent, can permit the minority party to win (Mississippi's Ray Mabus' defeat). Over the last few decades of the 20th century, the Republican Party in the South repeatedly won their first gubernatorial or senate elections because of Democratic divisions. In this century, the new southern GOP majority faced increasing intra-party divisions, which fuels Democratic hopes.

Facing a recession necessitating painful state budget cuts in Mississippi’s 1991 gubernatorial contest, the dominant Democratic party in Mississippi state government proceeded to unravel. Harvard educated, Governor Ray ("Mississippi will never be last again") Mabus was adamant about convincing the "buckle of the Bible Belt" to enact a lottery to pay for education improvements and to impose "user fees" that affected powerful interest groups. The state legislature balked and showed some willingness to enact a general tax increase to minimize the budget cuts, but Mabus opposed this alternative. The resulting stalemate between the Democratic governor and the Democratic-controlled legislature produced two years of painful budget cuts and no raises for teachers and state employees. Expecting the real contest to be within the Democratic party, some education supporters urged the pragmatic and flexible Wayne Dowdy (a former moderate U.S. House member) to challenge the incumbent governor. And then the fun began! Both Democratic titans stirred up their supporters when speaking at the Neshoba county fair, Mississippi's giant "house party" attended by working class whites. Mabus in his white shirt and tie appeared a little out-of-place, and a section of the fairground roped off for his supporters merely illustrated how so many of his backers were "yuppie" types. Mocking Mabus' campaign slogan of four years ago, the "populist" (country-persona) Dowdy pledged that if elected, "Mississippi will never be lost again." Laughing at the "arrogant" and wealthy "tree farmer's" claim of a humble background, Dowdy quipped, "The 'ruler' claims to be the only farmer in the governor's race. I guess he was president of the Future Farmers of America chapter, up there at Harvard." Mabus for his part accused his fellow Democrat of saying that Mississippi could not compete with California and chided him: "Be ashamed. Wayne, be ashamed. Dowdy the doubter. Wayne, you stayed in Washington too long. You've given up on Mississippi" (Shaffer, Sturrock, Breaux, and Minor 1999: 253 both quotes; in Lamis’ book, Southern Politics in the 1990s). When the dust had cleared, Mabus was able to pull off a bare 51% majority victory in the primary, but instead of being gracious to his defeated opponent on election night he gloated, "This victory shows that Mississippi doesn't want to go backward (paraphrased). Enter Republican Kirk Fordice, a blunt-speaking construction company owner who had been a Republican party activist since the Goldwater era. Some state Republican party operatives tried to "anoint" as their gubernatorial candidate Pete Johnson, a close relative to two Democratic governors who after election as auditor in 1987 had switched to the GOP, exciting the party with their first statewide officeholder since Reconstruction. Blasting "Petey" as a "career politician," Fordice made his conservatism clear to Republican voters, opposing racial quotas and all tax increases, and upset Johnson in the Republican runoff primary. Fordice's primary victory is understandable in view of the less than 10% of Mississippi voters casting ballots in the Republican as opposed to Democratic primary. One poll showed that 37% of Republican activists described themselves as "very" conservative, 48% as “somewhat” conservative, and only 15% labeling themselves as liberal or moderate (Shaffer and Breaux 1995: 171). In the general election campaign, as newspaper articles daily decried the painful state budget cuts, Fordice unleashed television ads depicting himself as merely "a private citizen, just like you," and challenged voters to "take Mississippi back from the political hacks" (Shaffer, Sturrock, Breaux, and Minor 1999: 254-255). With polls showing voters increasingly disillusioned with the performance of the governor, the state legislature, and even with the overall quality of life in the state, Fordice stunned political observers with a narrow 51% popular vote victory to Mabus' 48%. Significantly outspent by the incumbent, Fordice's visibility was so low that on election night one veteran reporter on ETV turned to another and asked, "Who is Kirk Fordice?" The wave of voter dissatisfaction also claimed the three-term Democratic lieutenant governor (and president of the state senate) Brad Dye, who was replaced with state senator Eddie Briggs, another historic GOP first (Nash and Taggart 2006: 271, 272).

The 2018 and 2020 Mississippi Senate elections and the 2019 gubernatorial elections saw the now majority Republican Party divided, permitting Democrats to come close to victories. Interim GOP Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith faced a conservative Republican challenger in the first special election in March 2018, as well as popular former Congressman, African American Democrat Mike Espy. As the Republican led the first election with only 41.3% to Espy’s 40.9%, and Espy lost the runoff with a substantial 46.4% of the vote, the losing Democrat was motivated to challenge Hyde-Smith in the regular 2020 election. Hyde-Smith stressed her important committee assignments, her bringing federal funds to Mississippi, and her conservative values, while Espy embraced the liberal national Democratic Party message, particularly on health care and racial reconciliation (see our textbook, pages 111-113, 117-118). Hyde-Smith ended up beating Espy by about a 10 percent margin. In the 2019 gubernatorial race, some leading state Republicans, fearing that lieutenant governor Tate Reeves had made too many enemies as President of the state senate, backed the personable former state Supreme Court chief justice Bill Waller. Waller, whose father had been a Democratic governor, promptly backed expanding Medicaid under ObamaCare and raising the gas tax to fix the state’s deteriorating highways, causing horrified conservative GOP leaders to publicly back Reeves. Reeves won the primary runoff with only 54% of the vote, and then as state Republicans ran as a team, Reeves beat Democratic state attorney general Jim Hood with a narrow 52.6% of the vote (see textbook, p. 113).

 

2)      Short-term factors such as a popular candidate who is non-ideological can help the minority party win an election (Mississippi Thad Cochran's wins in 1978, 1984, and his final 2014 election).

Mississippi Democrats received a shock with the election of Republican congressman Thad Cochran to the U.S. senate in 1978 to replace retiring senator Eastland. After the notorious segregationist Eastland apparently handpicked his successor, Democratic nominee Maurice Dantin, the African American Charles Evers, brother of slain civil rights leader Medgar Evers, ran as an independent (Nash and Taggart 2006: 80; Mississippi Politics book, 1st edition). Complaining that Democrats "took blacks for granted," Evers offered African American voters "somebody that looks like you and talks like you and has suffered like you," brought in black heavyweight world champion boxer Muhammad Ali, and carried ten majority black counties (Nash and Taggart 2006: 82 quotes, 83). Cochran's 45% popular vote plurality win did include some black support, however. Cochran's personal popularity might have won him a bare majority in a two-way race, as he had twice won reelection as congressman, capturing 71% and most recently 78% of the vote. Political observers described his "evident braininess" serving as a congressman, his personality as being "engaging, articulate," and his style as being "soft-spoken" and "even-handed" (Barone, Ujifusa, and Matthews 1979: 475). That the historic first of an election of a Republican in a statewide vote was not a "fluke" is further suggested by Cochran's easy 61% reelection victory in 1984 over popular former governor William Winter. While building a conservative roll call record in the senate, Cochran also backed programs that helped a poor state like Mississippi, such as food stamps, rural housing, and aid to black colleges. Most memorable was an advertisement he ran featuring an elderly woman who had trouble getting her Social Security check. "And she looked to Thad, and Thad delivered," concluded the announcer (Krane and Shaffer 1992: 102; Mississippi Government and Politics book). Voters came to the same conclusion, with one statewide poll showing that an overwhelming 96% of the comments that voters offered about the incumbent were favorable. His seniority, experience, and work for the state were decisive in his easy reelection (Krane and Shaffer 1992: 102). Remember that these GOP victories occurred despite Democrats outnumbering Republicans in party identification by a 3-1 margin at that time in the state's history!

Cochran's popular ideologically-inclusive style that had served him so well in his political career was quite evident in his last 2014 election. Facing a Tea Party challenger in the GOP primary, state senator Chris McDaniel, 77-year-old Cochran stressed "his status as a top member of the Appropriations Committee to support federal projects such as military bases, university research and agricultural projects in Mississippi," while McDaniel blasted Cochran's allegedly liberal votes and labeled him as a "senator who's been in Washington so long, he's forgotten his Mississippi conservative values" (Pettus 2014a, 2014b). Aggressively campaigning across the state, McDaniel shocked the political establishment by leading in the first primary with 49.5% of the vote to Cochran's 49.0% with a minor candidate forcing a runoff race. Cochran supporters quickly became energized, with the aging senator personally campaigning across the state, with Republican establishment leaders urging a Cochran vote to help ensure a GOP-controlled senate, and with many African American leaders praising Cochran’s support for some programs that benefitted minorities. One kiss of death for the spunky challenger was that his call for cuts in education prompted pleas for Cochran's reelection on the part of the chairmen of all three of the state's public education bodies (elementary and secondary, community colleges, and universities). The Cochran forces reversed their initial first primary deficit with a narrow 51% runoff victory, prompting a bitter McDaniel to spend months in court challenges over allegedly illegal Democratic crossover votes in the GOP runoff. Cochran easily bested Democratic former congressman Travis Childers, whose supporters had hoped in vain for a McDaniel GOP upset, as polls had shown a tossup or even a Childers victory if he had faced the Tea Party favorite (exit poll: http://www.cnn.com/election/2014/results/state/MS/senate).

The election of Democrat John Bel Edwards to the first of two gubernatorial terms in Republican-dominated Louisiana in 2015 also showed the power of a popular, non-ideological figure. John Bel Edwards' noteworthy career had included graduation on the Dean's List at West Point Military Academy, service as an Army Ranger, and state House service as the Veterans Affairs Committee chair and as House Democratic caucus chair. Republicans were burdened by an outgoing governor (Bobby Jindall) hurt by a budget deficit that necessitated both tax increases and budget cuts, and a divisive first primary where one GOP loser remained neutral in the runoff and the other backed the Democrat. Surviving Republican, Senator David Vitter, already tarred by an "escort" scandal, was blasted by an Edwards ad accusing the Republican of skipping a 2001 House vote honoring troops killed in a Desert Storm missile strike but being on the phone with the escort service 39 minutes later, with the ad concluding: "David Vitter chose prostitutes over patriots." (O'Donoghue 2015) The non-ideological Edwards narrowly won reelection, having signed a tough anti-abortion bill, having supported gun owner rights, but also expanding Medicaid under Obamacare and signing a criminal justice reform bill that reduced the prison population.

3)      The minority party's candidate can win an upset with an effective campaign that focuses on job performance or issue differences between the two candidates (Mississippi Trent Lott's 1988 win, plus Democrat Jim Hood’s wins as state attorney general).

Trent Lott's victory in the 1988 senate race was a bit of a surprise to political observers, as the bright, articulate Republican with the "slick," "well-kept" hair provided the most entertaining political theater during the campaign war. Seeking to represent the poorest state in the nation with the highest proportion of African Americans, Trent Lott was initially viewed by political observers as too conservative (typically receiving liberal ADA scores of absolute 0) and too partisan (serving as House GOP Minority Whip). Indeed, he represented the "whitest" and most Republican house district in the state (the Gulf Coast). Furthermore, he faced "folksy" populist congressman Wayne Dowdy, a popular Democrat who combined a progressive record on public works and entitlement programs with a conservative record on national defense and "moral" issues. Outspending his Democratic rival by over $1 million, Lott hired a campaign consultant whose trade name was "Dr. Feelgood," and proceeded to launch a series of visually appealing television ads that depicted the Republican "leader" as a supporter of such popular programs as Social Security, college student loans, environmental protection, and highway construction. Entertaining and educating voters, Dowdy launched a television ad blasting Lott's use as minority leader of a "chauffeur." Lott's camp responded with an ad featuring his chauffeur-guard George Awkward, an African American, who explained that he had been a Washington D.C. police veteran for 27 years and that, "I'm nobody's chauffeur. Got it?" In a televised debate, Dowdy kept trying to depict Lott as being out-of-touch with the average Mississippian and exhorted voters to "cut George." Reminding voters of Dowdy's low attendance record on house roll call votes, Lott deadpanned: "I've got a better idea. Let's cut Wayne. At least George shows up for work and he makes less than you do" (Shaffer 1991: 103; in Moreland et al. book, The 1988 Presidential Election in the South). With Stennis and four other southern Democratic senators stumping for him, Dowdy was able to close the gap in the polls, but Lott still pulled out a 54% popular vote victory.

A more current example of a minority party's candidate ability to win by stressing his job performance was Mississippi's last statewide elected Democrat, Attorney General Jim Hood. He was first elected in 2003 with 63% of the vote, and then gained 60% and 61% reelection margins with the closest race being a 55% victory in 2015. Hood had previous experience as a District Attorney, and as an Assistant Attorney General. As Attorney General, "Hood established a Vulnerable Adults Unit, a Domestic Violence Unit, an Identity Theft Unit, and a Crime Prevention and Victims Services Division" (Wikipedia). He ran campaign ads stressing his fight against those using the Internet "to come after our children" (paraphrased). Hood also gained widespread acclaim for helping homeowners recover after Hurricane Katrina by suing prominent insurance companies, and for successfully prosecuting the Klansman who murdered three civil rights workers in 1964 in Philadelphia, MS (of Mississippi Burning film fame). Hood and former Democratic attorney general Mike Moore are two rare modern-day Democrats who are viewed by average Mississippi voters as very "moderate" in ideology (a 3.0 on a 5-point liberal-conservative ideology scale). The popular four-term state attorney general eventually lost a close gubernatorial race to Tate Reeves in 2019.

Virginia's statewide elections in 2021 saw the minority Republican party narrowly sweep all three races with candidates stressing less ideological job performance relevant factors. Democratic former governor Terry McAuliffe lost to Republican businessman Glenn Youngkin, who portrayed himself as "a likeable moderate who wears a red fleece vest," accepted Trump's endorsement but then refused to campaign with him and basically kept Trump out of the state. When Democrat McAuliffe defended the right of educators to teach controversial subjects like critical race theory, Youngkin blasted him as a tool of the teachers' union who wanted to keep parents out of the classroom (Schneider and Vozzella, 2021). Though 36% of exit poll voters were Democrats and 34% Republicans, nationalizing the election by having former President Obama, Vice President Harris, and voting rights activist Stacey Abrams campaign for him probably didn't help McAuliffe, since President Biden had only a 46% approval rating (53% disapprove). Youngkin's 50% favorable approval rating exceeded McAuliffe's 47%, and the Republican was benefitted by the two top issues of the economy and education (named by 33% and 24% of voters, respectively), where he won 55% and 53% vote totals. Indeed, 52% of voters said that parents should have a lot of say in what schools teach, and 51% rejected the political correctness of removing Confederate monuments (https://www.cnn.com/election/2021/november/exit-polls/virginia/governor/). Republicans also elected Winsome Sears as lieutenant governor, and Jason Miyares as attorney general, the first black woman and first Latino elected to statewide office. Sears rejected victimhood as divisive, and related how her father had brought her to America from Jamaica for jobs and opportunity, and she proudly recounted how she had lived the American dream (Thomas 2021). Sears was a former Marine, who was the only black Republican state legislator and the only Republican who had represented a majority black district. An anti-abortion and pro-gun rights candidate, she ridiculed the Democratic governor's mask mandate, but her independent nature was also evident in her campaign website where she said she was proudest of her community work leading a men's prison ministry and directing a women's Salvation Army homeless shelter. Miyares' family had left communist Cuba and he was born in North Carolina, and he was elected three times to the Virginia house. The first Cuban American in that body, his voting record was a conservative but not an extreme one. Indeed, one of his first acts as attorney general was to accept the resignation of a deputy attorney general who on facebook had referred to the January 6, 2021 Capitol rioters as "patriots," with his spokesperson reiterating that: "The attorney general has been very clear. Joe Biden won the election and he has condemned the January 6 attack" (Lybrand and Rabinowitz, 2022).

4)      Usually, the majority party's candidate wins the election, if the short-term forces of candidate and issue factors balance out evenly (Mississippi Roger Wicker; Tennessee's Bob Corker; Texas' Rick Perry wins).

Republicans romped in the 2008 federal elections in Mississippi, winning both senate seats as well as the presidential race. Governor Barbour had appointed 1st district GOP Congressman Roger Wicker as the interim Senator after Trent Lott's resignation, and Democrats promptly nominated former governor Ronnie Musgrove as their candidate for the November special election. Wicker proceeded to paint Musgrove as a "liberal," blasting him for accepting money from a national PAC that was "the largest gay rights group in the country," and accusing the Democrat of promising to support the "liberal Democratic leadership" in Washington (Pettus 2008). Both camps quickly turned negative with Musgrove claiming that Wicker had voted repeatedly to raise his own pay and that he had gone "to Washington promising change, but Washington politics changed him," while Wicker reminded voters that they had rejected Musgrove's gubernatorial reelection bid and had given "him his walking papers" (Todd 2008). With Republicans outnumbering Democrats by 6% in the exit polls, Wicker kept Lott's seat in the Republican ranks. Meanwhile, Republican Cochran won his usual landslide reelection, beating a former state legislator who had lost to Lott two years earlier, African American Erik Fleming.

In Tennessee in 2006, Republican Bob Corker's Democratic senate opponent was African American congressman, Harold Ford Jr., who had been elected in 1996 to the same seat held by his father for 22 years. Ford was a moderate liberal who sought to avoid the Liberal tag by highlighting his conservative and religious values, such as his opposition to gay rights, partial birth abortion, and illegal immigration (York, 2006). The Republican National Committee nevertheless ran a devastating ad that painted Ford as a liberal, as a string of respectable citizens mocked his alleged liberal record by saying such things as, "Terrorists need their privacy," "When I die, Harold Ford will let me pay taxes again," "Ford's right, I do have too many guns," and "I'd love to pay higher marriage taxes." Most controversial in possibly injecting race into the campaign was the inclusion of a bare shouldered attractive white female who bragged, "I met Harold at the Playboy party," and who ended the ad by winking into the camera and saying, "Harold, call me." (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PjK1Ar4ksvY&feature=related, accessed July 19, 2017). While at first evasive about the charge that he had attended a Playboy Super Bowl Party, the handsome young black congressman finally quipped, "I was there. I like football, and I like girls" (de la Cruz, 2006). Meanwhile, Corker desperately sought to divorce himself from the anti-Republican sentiment sweeping the nation because of the seemingly endless war in Iraq, as the Republican businessman (and former Mayor of Chattanooga) stressed that he was "an accomplished, experienced Tennessean who would take Tennessee values to Washington" (Locker 2006: A4). Exit polls showed both candidates winning over 90% of the identifiers of their respective parties and splitting the Independents, so the slightly greater number of Republican than Democratic voters (38% versus 34%) proved the difference in helping Republicans keep this senate seat (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/TN/S/01/epolls.0.html; accessed November 26, 2006). Corker was able to pull out a squeaker, winning 51% of the total vote to Ford's 48%. Corker’s election was important, as Tennessee had been a more two-party state since 1970, even re-electing a Democratic governor when Corker won a close race; since then, Republicans have won every Senate and gubernatorial race, and the GOP advantage on party identification is a major reason.

In Texas in 2006, Republicans reelected Governor Rick Perry despite his sagging popularity. Perry found himself facing two Independents as well as a Democrat, all exploiting public discontent with the political situation. They included state comptroller and Republican Carole Keeton Strayhorn, who promised to place a high priority on public education funding and to expand the CHIP healthy children program, and who blasted Perry for making cuts in both areas (Chron.com 2006). The other independent was comedian Kinky Friedman, who mocked his opponents' political experience by reminding audiences that the letters "ticks" in the word "politics" stood for "blood-sucking parasites," but soon found himself on the defensive for the racial slur of referring to Hurricane Katrina evacuees in Houston as "crackheads and thugs" who had raised the crime rate (Ratcliffe and Robison 2006). Democrats offered Chris Bell, a man who had a record of losing bids for the state legislature and for mayor of Houston, who after only one term had been redistricted out of his U.S. House district by the GOP-controlled legislature, but who was idolized by partisan Democrats for filing a successful ethics complaint against GOP House leader Tom Delay (Ratcliffe 2006). With Independents splitting relatively equally among the four candidates and with about 70% of the identifiers of the two major parties backing their party's candidates, Perry's 39% share of the popular vote compared to Bell's 30% mirrored the 9% edge that Republicans held over Democrats in the exit polls (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/TX/G/00/epolls.0.html).
Perry was reelected once again in 2010 over Democratic Houston mayor Bill White. Though both candidates received at least 90% of their own party identifiers' votes, Republicans outnumbered Democrats among exit poll voters by an 11% margin. The Rick Perry example shows that even a weak and unpopular Republican candidate can be victorious if their party has a majority of party identifiers (textbook, page 11); indeed, Republicans have won every Senate and gubernatorial election in Texas since 1994.

5)      A non-ideological campaign of effective job performance and constituency service is a winning recipe for an incumbent Governor (Alabama's Bob Riley's, Mississippi Haley Barbour's and Phil Bryant’s wins).

In Alabama, Governor Bob Riley in his first term proved to be an ideologically pragmatic chief executive, who benefited from an improving economy that produced an historic low 3% unemployment rate and was helped by an image of organized and authoritative leadership in responding to Hurricane Katrina's aftermath (Associated Press 2005; Montgomeryadvertiser.com 2006). Touting the creation of over 100,000 new jobs by expanding existing businesses as well as attracting new businesses to Alabama, Riley spent much of his 2006 reelection campaign attending groundbreaking ceremonies for new businesses and being praised by mayors in the affected cities (Rawls 2006a; Reeves 2006). His ideological pragmatism was reflected in his unsuccessful effort in 2003 to close the budget gap and increase education funding by raising taxes on the rich and lowering income and property taxes for the poor, an exercise in leadership that won him a Profile in Courage award by nationally-respected Governing magazine (Gurwitt 2003). In 2006 Riley worked with Democratic legislators to raise the threshold for a family to pay state income taxes, producing a tax cut for the working poor, and was blasted by the conservative Cato Institute for failing to reign in a "big-spending Legislature" that appropriated money for such programs as public education (Rawls 2006b; quote in Rawls 2006c). Endorsed by all 18 of the state's daily newspapers, Riley won reelection in 2006 with 57% of the vote to Democratic lieutenant governor and former two-term treasurer Lucy Baxley's 42% (Rawls 2006d). Baxley had tried to paint herself as the "working class candidate," backing a $1 increase in the state minimum wage (Kizzire 2006a). Republicans in 2006 also won four of the six executive offices below governor (Kizzire 2006b).

Haley Barbour was easily reelected Mississippi governor in 2007 with 58% of the vote over social conservative John Arthur Eaves, who backed "voluntary, student-led school prayers" and promised to throw the "money changers" out of the state capital (Nossiter, 2007). In endorsing Barbour, the Clarion-Ledger pointed out that he had "done a good job of attracting new jobs as shown in his personal role in helping land the new Toyota plant" (the Clarion-Ledger, 2007: 4G). Barbour's decisive and confident leadership after Hurricane Katrina devastated the coast, when he publicly vowed that the coast would rebuild to be "better than ever," and his active fight for federal disaster funds won him the prestigious Governing magazine's award of Public Official of the Year. Even Mississippi's first African American congressman since Reconstruction, Mike Espy, ended up backing the Republican, as did other Democratic former officeholders, lieutenant governor Brad Dye and Governor Bill Waller (Rupp, 2007: 1A, 6A).

Phil Bryant's reelection as governor in 2015 in Mississippi also showed the importance of stressing economic development. Throughout his term, he had attended many business openings and expansions throughout the state, including in the northern cities of Baldwyn, Burnsville, Columbus, Ecru, Guntown, New Albany, Pontotoc, Starkville, Verona, and West Point. Democratic electoral futility was reflected in their gubernatorial nominee, Robert Gray, being a truck driver, who admitted that he had been too busy to even vote in the party primary. Gray presumably won because his name was listed first on the ballot, and his two opponents also lacked name visibility and any previous elected office experience and were women. Bryant had first been elected governor in 2011. His first state office had been state legislator and then auditor, where he was known for a non-partisan approach, promoting "transparent government," and recovering funds from "corrupt officials." He then served as lieutenant governor, where he touted his close work with popular Governor Barbour recruiting new jobs to the state and "being responsible with taxpayers' dollars by not spending money we don't have" (Harrison 2011).

Tate Reeves' reelection as Mississippi governor in 2023 also shows the importance of job performance and constituency service. Democrats nominated Brandon Presley, the 4-term Northern District Public Service Commissioner, a religious, pro-life and pro-gun rights challenger who portrayed himself as a "Populist, FDR-Billy McCoy Democrat" who had worked across the partisan aisle and even voted for President Bush's re-election (Perlis 2023b). Pledging to fight for the "working families" by attacking public corruption and backing health care improvements such as expanding Medicaid, Presley mocked the governor: "I ain't never owned a tennis racket... I ain't never been a member of a country club" (Gordon 2023). The popular north Mississippian touted some endorsements from North Mississippi local Republican officeholders, and worked to stimulate African American turnout by campaigning at Jackson State University and advertising on radio stations with largely black audiences. Republican Governor Tate Reeves argued that "conservative leadership works," as he touted the state's economic development efforts, such as incentive packages that attracted a $2.5 billion aluminum mill and biocarbon facility and led to other businesses expanding in the Golden Triangle region (McLaughlin 2023). Reeves' bragging on the state's education advances in 4th and 8th grade reading were even praised by the founder of the California Reading Coalition (Collins 2023). He also blasted his Democratic opponent as being supported by a "radical, vicious" national party that believed that "taxes are good, boys are girls, and our state and nation is racist" (Inman 2023). Reeves pulled out a 50.9% to 47.7% victory, but the narrow 3.2% edge showed that Democrats could be competitive with a strong candidate and sufficient campaign support.

6)      A folksy, ideologically-inclusive candidate can keep a diverse majority coalition together (Louisiana Edwin Edwards; Georgia Zell Miller; Arkansas David Pryor wins).

As the Second Reconstruction began to transform Louisiana society and the race issue became less salient to whites, Louisiana Democrats were successful in creating a governing biracial coalition of working-class whites, Cajuns, and the vast majority of the state's sizable African American population. The leader of this coalition for much of the last three decades of the 20th century was four-term governor Edwin Edwards. Edwards, a French-speaking Catholic from south Louisiana and the first governor of Cajun descent in the century, came from a humble background as a tenant farmer's son. Growing up during the Great Depression, his hero was Franklin D. Roosevelt, and he praised governmental programs that provided him bus service, electricity, a free school lunch, and schoolbooks, as well as the "butter, beans, flour, and other staples" that kept his family alive (Bridges 1994: 198 quote, 199). Edwin Edwards was especially known for being a "witty and charismatic campaigner" (Lamis 1990: 110). When reporters at the start of his first reelection campaign asked him whether he would be able to keep his New Year's resolution to stop gambling, Edwards joked: "The odds are eight to five" (Bass and DeVries 1977: 175). Responding to stories about his alleged womanizing during his third successful gubernatorial election campaign, the handsome Edwards quipped that the only way he could lose the election was if he was caught "in bed with a dead girl or a live boy" (Bridges 1994: 200). Seeking a third term as governor, Edwards in 1983 unseated Republican Governor Treen in a landslide (Table 6-2). The well-funded Edwards skillfully played on public dissatisfaction with the economic problems plaguing the state, ushered in by the 1982 national recession. Blasting Treen as an inept, "do-nothing" governor, Edwards described the Republican governor as "having a lack of anything between your ears," and of being "so slow, it takes him an hour and one-half to watch Sixty Minutes" (Lamis 1990: 118, 1st quote; Renwick, Parent, and Wardlaw 1999: 285, 2nd quote). Treen touted his black appointments to state government and tried to contrast his own integrity with Edwards' image of corruption, but was swamped by the Democrats' powerful biracial coalition of whites with modest incomes and of blacks, and by the public perception of being a failed leader in this economic crisis (Parent 1988: 212; Parent and Perry 2003: 128; Parent and Perry 2007: 135). Edwards won his fourth term as governor in 1991 after only narrowly leading the first "open" primary with 34% of the vote to former white supremacist David Duke's 32%, setting up "the race from hell" between the "crook" and the "bigot" (Bridges 1994: 194 1st quote; 217 other quotes). With Louisiana political and economic leaders terrified that a victory by Duke would produce a massive national boycott by lucrative conventions and businesses (considering where to locate), bumper stickers backing Edwards jokingly urged: "Vote for the Crook. It's Important!" (Bridges 1994: 220-221, 232 quote). In a televised debate, Edwards effectively compared his own record of public service with Duke's controversial history: "While David Duke was burning crosses and scaring people, I was building hospitals to heal them. When he was parading around in a Nazi uniform to intimidate our citizens, I was in a National Guard uniform bringing relief to flood and hurricane victims" (Bridges 1994: 229). Needless to say, Edwards won with a sizable 61% of the vote, as one poll found that fully 60% of voters believed that Duke's racial views hadn't changed since his days with the KKK and that an overwhelming 91% of those voters ended up backing Edwards (Rose and Esolen 1992: 229-230). The Edwards era in Louisiana politics ended with his retirement from public life after serving this last term, his subsequent indictment and conviction for a federal crime, and his commitment to a federal prison.

The last popular Democratic governor in Georgia (his successor lost re-election) was Zell Miller, who won the governorship in 1990. A four-term “moderate liberal” lieutenant governor, Miller beat Republican businessman Johnny Isakson, a 14-year state representative who had risen to the house minority leadership position. A country music fan from rural north Georgia, Miller hired political consultants James Carville and Paul Begala and waged an aggressive television campaign that portrayed himself as a political "outsider" who had stood up to powerful long-time house speaker Tom Murphy. Miller focused on economic issues that Democrats had been associated with since the New Deal instead of on divisive social issues, urging adoption of a lottery to better fund education innovations and calling for repeal of the regressive sales tax on food that hurt poor people (Binford, Baxter, Sturrock, 1999: 109-113). Democrats were able to reelect Governor Zell Miller in 1994, but his mere 51% victory was a disappointment. Miller as governor had amassed an impressive, ideologically inclusive record of accomplishment, enacting the lottery-based HOPE program providing full college scholarships for high school students with B averages, and being tough on crime by backing a tough DUI law, boot camps, and a 2 strikes and you're out law (Binford, Baxter, Sturrock, 1999: 120). The Republican challenger was successful businessman Guy Millner, whose political inexperience was highlighted by his off-handed comment that he would avoid campaigning in small towns because the votes weren't there, and whose wealth was constantly highlighted by the governor. The Republican did effectively tie Zell Miller to President Clinton, as his ads played the governor's keynote address at the Democratic national convention praising Clinton as the "only candidate who feels our pain" (Binford, Baxter, Sturrock, 1999: 119). Miller may have also lost some voter support because of his effort to have the Confederate battle emblem removed from the state flag (an effort defeated in the legislature), and the cuts he made in state spending when faced with a national recession (Miller 2003: 47, 50-53). In 1998 the once segregationist Peach State elected African Americans Thurbert Baker and Michael Thurmond as attorney general and secretary of labor, respectively, with significant white support (Binford, Baxter, Sturrock, 1999: 134; Bullock 2007: 64). Both had first been appointed to state government positions by Governor Miller, with Thurmond directing the state's welfare-to-work effort and Baker appointed to complete his predecessor's term as attorney general. Zell Miller then briefly served in the U.S. Senate, where he blasted national Democrats as being too liberal in his book A National Party No More.

In Arkansas, Congressman David Pryor had built up a moderate voting record that earned him two successive reelections without opposition, and he had gained notoriety by working anonymously as a nursing home attendant on weekends to expose abuses to the elderly in nursing homes (Barone, Ujifusa, and Matthews 1972: 39-40). Pryor won the governorship in 1974 after being nominated by a 51% majority over segregationist Orval Faubus, and then winning a 66% landslide over Republican Ken Coon, former executive secretary for the state GOP, after prominent and wealthy businessmen threw their support to the Democratic nominee (Bass and DeVries 1977: 97; Lamis 1990: 125; Barone, Ujifusa, and Matthews 1975: 38). As governor, Pryor strove to attract high wage industries to the state, appointed an historic number of blacks and women to state offices, and was a fiscal conservative who held spending down (Bass and DeVries 1977: 98; Fenno 1996: 293; see Website http://www.oldstatehouse.com/exhibits/virtual/governors/). Pryor was so popular among voters that he won 83% of the vote in his 1976 reelection over a virtually unknown Republican, Leon Griffith, a plumber and building contractor (Lamis 1990: 125). Governor Pryor went on to multiple terms in the U.S. Senate beginning in 1978. His voting record varied in his first term between moderate and moderately liberal with some conservative positions on issues like food stamps, flag desecration, and a balanced budget. He was reelected senator in 1984, defeating three-term conservative Republican congressman Ed Bethune with 57% of the vote (Ehrenhalt 1983: 82; Ehrenhalt 1985: 76; Fenno 1996: 303). The GOP challenger had futilely charged that the centrist Pryor was "part of the old liberal Democratic coalition that always spent too much and collected too much in taxes" (Lamis 1990: 256). Meanwhile, Senator Pryor had been campaigning tirelessly for a year before the election with his "person-to-person tours throughout the state" (Lamis 1990: 256). With the campaign slogan "Pryor Puts Arkansas First," the Democratic incumbent responded to the charge that he had failed to support President Reagan's policies by pointing out that he dealt with "issues that affect Arkansas and Arkansas people," and that his opponent's "rigid ideology overrides compassion and gets in the way of representing real people with problems" (Fenno 1996: quotes on 317; 319). Prior's great popularity in Arkansas was reflected in his winning his last reelection to the senate in 1990 without any opposition. Pryor's roll call record in the 1990s proceeded to move more towards the liberal to moderate liberal ideological pole (Duncan and Lawrence 1995: 66). Some of his major accomplishments as senator, though, were above ideology, as he fought waste in the federal government's use of outside consultants, enacted a Taxpayer's Bill of Rights, and defended the Rural Electrification Administration which benefited Arkansas (Fenno 1996: 295, 299, 300). Pryor truly appeared to like people and to show a "genuine interest in whatever is on the minds of his constituents" so that voters regarded him as "one of us" and trusted him (Fenno 1996: quotes on 283; 62, 286). State reporters described him as "personable," "folksy," "unassuming," and a "real nice guy," who was decent, never made enemies, and who knew many constituents on a first name basis (Fenno 1996: quotes on 284; 286-287). Indeed, Senator Pryor was so humble and accessible that he could sometimes be found early in the morning serving as receptionist and catching the early phone calls (Fenno 1996: 288). Prior is the prime example of why Democrats dominated Arkansas until 2014; indeed, his son Mark Pryor even served in the Senator for two terms, finally knocked off by Republican Tom Cotton.

7)      Short-term forces, such as effective and ineffective candidates, are decisive when no party is the clear majority party (North Carolina's Elizabeth Dole; Virginia's George Allen's defeats; Arkansas’ Mark Pryor’s defeat).

In 2008 the two parties in North Carolina were tied in party identification. Republican Senator Elizabeth Dole began her reelection campaign with Democrats and the major state newspaper calling her a "backbencher," and a "silent senator" who had accomplished little for the state (Barrett 2008a). A hilarious national Democratic ad took a swipe at her age, alleged ineffectiveness, and loyalty to the unpopular President Bush, with two elderly men on rocking chairs arguing over whether the 72-year-old Dole was "92 or 93" in her effectiveness ranking and in her vote loyalty to Bush's proposals (Barrett 2008b). Democratic challenger Kay Hagan, a 10-year state senate veteran proceeded to relate to voters by describing herself as a "working mom" who would carpool her kids to soccer practice, and stressed the performance issue by boasting her three-time rating as one of the state's ten most effective senators by a non-partisan research center (see website: http://www.kayhagan.com/about/about-kay). Hagan received timely support from popular former Democratic governor Jim Hunt, who blasted the worst mess in Washington "since the Great Depression," and derided Dole as "a nice woman, but I have never seen anyone go to Washington and do as little as she's done" (Shaw 2008). Meanwhile, Dole continued to stumble, airing an ad accusing the Sunday schoolteacher and presbyterian elder Hagan of taking "godless money" because of a fundraiser held for her by a member of a "Secular" group (Zagaroli 2008). With Democratic identifiers outnumbering Republicans among exit poll voters and with Hagan beating Dole by a nearly two-to-one margin among moderates, the "soccer mom" challenger proceeded to polish off the consummate Washington insider (website: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=NCS01p1).
Hagan was herself unseated in her 2014 reelection bid after Republican businessman and state house speaker Thom Tillis effectively linked the Democratic incumbent to President Obama (who had a 56% disapproval rating): "Whether it's the IRS scandal, Benghazi, NSA, the Secret Service, it just really raises a question about this president's ability to lead... People can only absorb so much, so you really have to focus on her failure with jobs and economy, her failure on the safety and security issues" (Roarty 2014). Tillis narrowly won reelection in 2020 (see textbook).

The parties were also pretty evenly divided in party identification in Virginia in 2006, when incumbent Republican Senator George Allen was narrowly unseated by Democrat Jim Webb. Webb, a former Marine whose Vietnam service had earned him several medals, was a former Republican who had served as Assistant Secretary of Defense in the Reagan Administration. The Democrat immediately ran an ad where President Reagan at a 1985 Naval Academy commencement address had praised his service, and he also wore his son's combat boots on the campaign trail to honor his son's continuing the family military tradition by serving in Iraq (Boyer 2006; Richmond Times-Dispatch 2006). The challenger proceeded to play on the public's dissatisfaction with the Iraqi war and other problems facing the nation, as he blasted President Bush's "incompetence" for hindering "our ability to fight international terror," and called for the election of a "new team in Congress," "a Democratic Congress," which would provide "a new direction in Iraq" (Whitley 2006). Meanwhile, an overconfident Allen, touted by some Republicans as a likely presidential hopeful, ribbed a Webb staffer of Asian-Indian descent who was filming him at a campaign rally: "This fellow here, over here, with the yellow shirt, 'Macaca', or whatever his name is, he's with my opponent. So, welcome, let's give a welcome to Macaca here. Welcome to America, and the real world of Virginia" (Boyer 2006). Allen suddenly found himself on the defensive against charges of racism, as he denied any awareness that the word 'Macaca' was a racial slur used by whites in some French-colonized African nations to refer to a type of monkey, a macaque. The embattled Republican also found himself rejecting charges that as a college football player decades ago, he had used the N word to describe blacks (Stallsmith 2006). In pulling off a narrow upset with 49.6% of the vote to 49.2% for the incumbent, exit polls found Democrat Webb winning the votes of 56% of Independents, 60% of self-identified moderates, and even 42% of whites (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/VA/S/01/epolls.0.html).

Arkansas by 2014 had become very competitive in partisanship despite a very Democratic history. President Obama now had a 68% disapproval rating and the Democratic party advantage in the state had disappeared (33% of exit poll voters were Republicans while 28% were Democrats). Desperately fighting to save his seat, Senator Mark Pryor ran an ad featuring his father, popular former governor and senator David Pryor, who defended his son's support for Obamacare by citing his son's own battle with insurance companies when he had had cancer. After Pryor attacked his opponent, Republican congressman Tom Cotton for having a "sense of entitlement" to the Senate job for having served in Iraq and Afghanistan in the Army, the 37-year-old Cotton ran a playful ad of himself standing at attention in front of his Drill Sergeant, George Norton, who had "taught me how to be a soldier: Accountability, humility, and putting the unit before yourself. That training stuck" (Camia 2014). Independents broke for the Republican challenger, with Cotton winning 62% of them and unseating Pryor. Tom Cotton won re-election in 2020 without even a Democratic opponent.

8)      Perceived ideological extremism is a killer for any party (Texas George Bush's and Rick Perry's victories; Florida's Katherine Harris' defeat).

Texas governor, Democrat Ann Richards had taken such liberal actions as opposing a bill requiring parental consent for teenagers to receive abortions, vetoing a concealed weapons bill strongly backed by the NRA, and appointing more blacks and women to state commissions and boards than any previous governor. She also had backed NAFTA, worked to bring and keep industry in the state, and dealt with a budget shortfall by enacting a state lottery and signing a corporate income tax bill (Murray and Attlesey 1999: 323; Ivins and Dubose 2000: 92). Richards also showed her partisan nature even in presidential politics by mocking President Bush during the 1992 campaign, a somewhat questionable strategy since Texas has voted Republican in each presidential election beginning in 1972 (except for Carter's narrow win in 1976)(Feigert and Todd 1994: 173). Richards and the legislature also dealt with the problem of unequal funding across school districts by enacting a controversial "Robin Hood" law that "took from the rich districts to give to the poor districts" (Ivins and Dubose 2000: 22). Republicans in 1994 won the governorship, despite increasing job growth in Texas that boosted Ann Richards' reelection hopes. The GOP rallied behind the candidacy of George W. Bush, who was popular in Republican circles as the former President's son and as part owner of the Texas Rangers' baseball team. Bush skillfully exploited Richards' liberal record, as he supported the concealed weapons bill, and the parental notification of teenagers' abortions bill that Richards had opposed. Bush also projected a likeable image as a "compassionate conservative" on education matters, as he criticized a school funding equalization plan that had hurt some wealthy suburban districts and argued that all of the proceeds of the lottery enacted by Governor Richards and the legislature should go to enhancing education funding (Murray and Attlesey 1999: 323, 325-327; Thielemann and Elliott 2005: 238 quote). On the issues of crime and welfare, Bush claimed that "juvenile crime is out of control," and promised to get tough with welfare recipients by cutting off the additional benefits provided for any extra child that a woman gave birth to (Ivins and Dubose 2000: 93 quote, 95). Bush was also a very personable candidate, speaking a little Spanish before Mexican American audiences and projecting a "non-threatening, affable, well-mannered" impression to voters (Ivins and Dubose 2000: 91 quote, 19). The Democrat Richards was especially doomed by her inability "to hold the urban Anglo women against Bush" (Richards 2002: 246). The Republican's 54% popular vote victory was the highest winning margin for a Texas governor in twenty years. Bush was reelected governor four years later in a landslide. Since 1994 Texas Republicans have won every Senate and gubernatorial election.

Lieutenant governor Rick Perry assumed the Texas governorship when George W. Bush immediately resigned after winning the presidency. Perry went on to win the governorship in his own right in the 2002 elections with 58% of the vote over Democrat Tony Sanchez's 40%. Sanchez, a Mexican-American millionaire businessman from Laredo, was reportedly hurt by his lack of campaign experience, his inadequate knowledge of state issues, a party primary battle that was so bitter that the runner up ended up campaigning for the GOP governor, by a failed savings and loan scandal in his past, and by claims that he wasn't a real Democrat because of his past campaign donations to George Bush and his appointment by Bush to the University of Texas Board of Regents (Cooley and Lutz, 2002). Sanchez did, however, win the endorsement of the Houston Gay and Lesbian Political Caucus Political Action Committee by reportedly supporting "domestic-partner benefits," an "Employment Non-Discrimination Act," and an "education bill banning discrimination based upon sexual orientation in Texas schools," and opposing "bills that would outlaw gay and lesbian parenting and foster parenting" (Bagby 2002).

Florida Democratic U.S. senator Bill Nelson had veered to the left, typically receiving liberal ADA scores of about 80 and conservative ACU scores of about 20. He had, for example, voted to extend a ban on assault weapons and to limit the size of President Bush's tax cut, as well as voted against a constitutional amendment outlawing same-sex marriage, against a ban on partial birth abortion, and against criminalizing harm to the fetus in an attack on the mother (Koszczuk and Stern 2005: 224). He nevertheless won reelection in 2006 with a landslide 60% of the vote, benefiting from the GOP nomination of a candidate viewed as too conservative for most Floridians, Katherine Harris, who won only 38% of voters. Republican Harris, the controversial secretary of state during the disputed 2000 presidential race in Florida, was elected to Congress in 2002 and had compiled a conservative voting record (Koszczuk and Stern 2005: 252). Republican leaders in Florida had desperately tried to find a candidate to challenge her senatorial nomination bid, fearing that her "erratic behavior and irrational tirades to the press" would spell defeat in November, though Harris refused to bow out, "insisting that God wants her to be a senator" (Chait 2006: 14). Upon nomination Harris proceeded to alienate everyone except the Christian Right when she proclaimed that: "If you're not electing Christians then in essence you are going to legislate sin" (Wheeler 2006). Praised in a prominent newspaper endorsement for his "lifetime of public service" and for being a "middle of the road" incumbent "who doesn't blindly vote the party line," Nelson proceeded to win reelection by racking up the votes of 55% of whites, 68% of Independents, 70% of moderates, and even 32% of conservatives (quotes in Tallahassee.com, 2006a; exit polls in http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/FL/S/01/epolls.0.html)
Nelson won reelection yet again in 2012, as he emphasized his moderate reputation and his desire to end the bitter ideological divide between the parties in Washington. He defeated conservative congressman Connie Mack who sought to link the incumbent with President Obama and his health care law (Klas and Sanders 2012). Nelson's bipartisan message won him 61% of moderates and 57% of Independents in exit polls (see website: http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/results/senate/exit-polls?state=fl). Nelson finally lost in 2018 to two-term GOP governor Rick Scott.

In 2016 the North Carolina governor was Republican Pat McCrory, and the Democratic gubernatorial hopeful was four-term state attorney general Roy Cooper, who had also previously been a state legislator for fourteen years. One controversial issue in the race was HB2, the bathroom bill, which prevented local governments from enacting anti-discrimination ordinances that permitted people to use public bathrooms based on their gender identity (rather than their biological gender stated on their birth certificates), which was signed into law by GOP governor McCrory. Democrat Cooper called the bill a "national embarrassment" and as attorney general refused to defend it in court (Stracqualursi 2016). With fully 65% of state voters opposing HB2 and 64% of them voting for Cooper, the Democrat narrowly unseated the Republican. Cooper narrowly won re-election in 2020 (see textbook).