Chapter 14

Florida: Triumph of Individualistic Campaigners over Partisanship

Florida is the final Rim South state, sharing other characteristics with those states, such as a smaller African Americans presence (14% of the population) and a more educated and higher income populace than in the Deep South. Sharing with all southern states defeat in the Civil War and occupation by northern troops during the Republican-directed Reconstruction era, whites in Florida also employed voting devices to prevent many blacks from voting and to establish white supremacy. As in other southern states, the Democratic Party was dominant. Indeed, Florida Republicans were unable to elect a governor or U.S. senator for nearly one hundred years after Reconstruction. Like other Rim South states, though, Florida voters began to vote Republican for president before the 1960s, voting against Catholic Al Smith in 1928 and for Republican Eisenhower twice in the 1950s.

Florida is unique in that it is the most urbanized southern state (only 11% live in rural areas), and has been undergoing the most massive in-migration of any state in Dixie (Koszczuk and Stern 2005: 221). Consequently, it is politically a microcosm of the nation that reflects the diversity of the nation, so it was quite understandable that the closest presidential election in the nation’s history would end up being disputed and then decided in Florida, with Bush declared the winner in 2000 by a margin of only 537 votes among nearly 6 million cast. It is also as unique as Texas in that African Americans are not the only sizable minority group, but are joined by Hispanics. Even more unique than Texas is that many of Florida’s Hispanics fled the communist nation of Cuba, making many more anti-communist and more sympathetic to the Republican Party than are Hispanics in other states. Also unique to Florida is the supremacy of candidates’ individualistic campaigns in shaping voters’ decisions, rather than the presence of factions reflecting ideological conflicts during the period of Democratic Party hegemony.

Historic Democratic Dominance: Triumph of Individualistic Politics

V.O. Key (1949: 82) entitled his chapter, “Florida: Every Man for Himself,” explaining that Florida lacked a statewide political machine like the Byrd organization in Virginia or long-term factions between ideologies as existed in Texas, that would affect voting patterns over more than one election. Therefore, candidates for each office “operate independently of each other,” and “this political individualism gives great weight to factors such as personality and skill on the stump,” as candidates often “struggle simply to make themselves known, and not disagreeably” (Key 1949: 97). Nevertheless, a liberal-conservative cleavage did periodically emerge during the first half of the 20^th century with conservatives usually victorious. However, notable progressives or liberals were occasionally elected to office, and the individualism of Florida politics guaranteed that nearly every governor embraced ideologically diverse positions on different types of issues.

Like other Rim South states, Florida historically resorted to voting devices that disfranchised African Americans, but by the 1940s discrimination was not as pervasive as in the Deep South. From 1940 until 1964, a greater proportion of African Americans were registered to vote in Florida than in the 11-state region as a whole, and by 1964 fully 64% of voting-age blacks were registered, second only to Tennessee in black empowerment (Garrow 1978: 7, 11, 19). Florida lacked a literacy test, and V.O. Key observed that the state’s registration laws “seem to make sense,” that registrars “appeared to know what they were about,” and that registrars were “concerned with efficient performance of their duties” and were “motivated by pride in their work” (Key 1949: 574). Florida was the third southern state (in 1937) to abandon its poll tax, producing a spike in turnout in 1938 that was also attributed to the heated Democratic primary campaign where two challengers- a conservative and an ex-governor- unsuccessfully sought to unseat New Dealer U.S. Senator Claude Pepper (Key 1949: 578, 605). Florida, along with two other Rim South states, even lacked a white primary instituted by state party action, though some counties did bar blacks from voting in the primary (Key 1949: 620). Yet white supremacy still ruled in Florida as in the South generally, a product of white Democratic reaction in the 1890s against white and black farmers joining forces in support of Populism. The poll tax instituted in 1889 did remove over 80% of blacks and nearly half of whites from the electorate (Colburn and deHaven-Smith 1999: 11-12).

As in Texas, Florida state governors in the first six decades of the 20^th century were generally fairly conservative in ideology, but a few liberals were elected to office, and most governors regardless of their ideology were pragmatic enough to embrace programs popular among voters that may have conflicted with their overall ideological orientations. Such political realism on the part of officeholders made the Democrats a broad tent party that embraced a diversity of ideas and prevented the Republican Party from gaining any foothold in state politics. Popular policies usually entailed fiscal conservatism pursued through a balanced budget, opposition to raising taxes, support for preserving racial segregation, a commitment to improved public education, support for building more roads, and a quest to bring more industry and tourism to the state.

The few liberal Democratic governors appeared especially adroit at advocating some popular non-liberal policies. Governors William Jennings and Napoleon Broward, both of whom served in the first decade of the 20^th century, were pro-public education and sought to limit the power of railroads and corporations over land acquisition, yet both supported the convict leasing system (Colburn and deHaven-Smith 1999: 14; Colburn and Scher 1980: 241, 260). Furthermore, Jennings maintained close relations with a railroad baron, while Broward used state troopers to protect strikebreakers and favored the deporting of African Americans to their own land (Colburn and deHaven-Smith 1999: 15-16; Colburn and Scher 1980: 201). T. LeRoy Collins, who served as governor for six years in the 1950s, was a true “education governor” who created the state-backed community college system and expanded the Florida State University system, as well as a racial liberal who later served in two positions in President Johnson’s administration, but even he was a fiscal conservative who had cut welfare spending (Colburn and Scher 1980: 197, 250, 289; Colburn and deHaven-Smith 1999: 40, 62). The final “liberal” governor was Fuller Warren, elected to one 4-year term in 1948, who supported labor unions, backed New Dealers Franklin D. Roosevelt and Senator Claude Pepper, and favored a progressive tax system based on one’s ability to pay, but in a pragmatic vein he ended up accepting a higher sales tax when his tax plan went nowhere as well as stressed programs to promote tourism (Colburn and Scher 1980: 73, 196, 204, 205; Dauer 1972: 134).

Conservative governors also generally modified their commitment to businesslike principles of fiscal responsibility and balanced budgets, anti-labor policies and preservation of a segregated society by supporting public education. John Martin, elected in 1924, was conservative on economics, race, and social issues, yet he significantly increased funding for education and other services and provided free textbooks to students in the first six grades of school (Colburn and Scher 1980: 241, 287). Doyle Carlton, elected in 1928, was also rated as conservative on all types of issues, as he campaigned for lower taxes and cut spending to promote economy in government, yet the Depression forced him to accept a sales tax to adequate fund the schools and universities (Colburn and Scher 1980: 187, 190, 192, 242, 287). David Sholtz, elected in 1932, was also rated a consistent conservative as he pursued the sound business principles of fiscal restraint and a balanced budget, yet he also supported the free textbooks program, backed workman’s compensation for job-related accidents, attempted to provide more funding for public welfare, and supported FDR’s New Deal because of the federal assistance it provided to the state (Colburn and deHaven-Smith 1999: 27, 30; Colburn and Scher 1980: 193, 287). Also generally rated as conservative governors were Millard Caldwell and C. Farris Bryant, elected in 1944 and 1960 respectively, both of whom were most known for their efforts to promote economic development by attracting new industries and increased tourism, yet both improved the quality of public elementary, secondary, and higher education, Caldwell by establishing the Minimum Foundation Program and Bryant by expanding the community college and university system (Colburn and deHaven-Smith 1999: 34-35, 41; Colburn and Scher 1980: 195, 197, 249, 287).

Occasionally, conservative governors even pursued racially progressive policies, such as W. Hayden Burns, elected in 1964, who appointed African Americans to the Board of Regents and other state positions, and Spessard Holland, elected governor in 1940, who later as U.S. Senator counseled moderation in responding to the Brown desegregation decision and then sponsored a constitutional amendment outlawing the poll tax in federal elections (Colburn and Scher 1980: 82, 223, 287; see website: http://bioguide.congress.gov/scripts/biodisplay.pl?index=H000720). Other 20^th century governors have been more consistently conservative, with Cary Hardee, elected in 1920, being such a fiscal conservative that he succeeded in retiring education bonds, and Fred Cone, elected in 1936, being so conservative and anti-New Deal that he refused to accept matching funds for New Deal programs, vetoed 154 spending bills, and vetoed setting up a state department of labor (Colburn and Scher 1980: 189, 194, 200, 287; Colburn and deHaven-Smith 1999: 53). Albert Gilchrist, elected in 1908, was conservative in his businesslike approach to governing, his use of the national guard to help break strikes, and his pro-capital punishment and pro-convict leasing policies, though he did support the Everglades draining project over the railroad and business communities’ preferences for private development of the land (Colburn and Scher 1980: 65, 203, 214, 260, 265). The only apparent “progressive” exception to Park Trammell’s (elected governor in 1912) consistent conservative ratings on economics, race, and social programs was his vague campaign rhetoric promising to protect people’s rights and to rule for the many instead of the few (Colburn and Scher 1980: 66, 287).

The U.S. senate career of “New Deal liberal” Claude Pepper, an “outstanding liberal Democratic” leader, illustrates how non-conservatives could survive by exploiting the individualistic nature of Florida politics through adroit campaign strategy and non-ideological acts of performance in office (Bass and DeVries 1977: 132, 1^st quote; Dauer 1972: 133, 2^nd quote). Pepper was a superb stump speaker, being a talented orator with great histrionic skills. He gained contacts with politicians from his state legislative service, and contacts with businessmen from his law practice. Pepper’s “sportsman-like acceptance of defeat” in the 1934 senate race helped him to win a special election in 1936 (Key 1949: 98). He worked diligently to deliver federal projects associated with the New Deal and with World War 2 to the state and helped businessmen by being “able to move wheels in Washington” (Key 1949: 98). Pepper won reelection in 1938 and 1944 by coming “back to the state for a few weeks” and wiping “out the opposition in a whirlwind campaign” (Key 1949: 98). He was finally unseated in 1950 by conservative Democratic congressman George Smathers, who blasted him for his ties to labor unions and his support for federal government spending, and who accused the liberal senator of being soft on communism (Dauer 1972: 133; Bass and DeVries 1977: 132).

As in other southern states, Republicans made their earliest gains in presidential elections with Florida joining fellow Rim South states of Tennessee and Virginia in voting against Catholic Democrat Al Smith in 1928 and for Republicans Eisenhower and Nixon in 1952, 1956, and 1960. Republican support was strongest in conservative urban areas along the east and west coasts, and resembled a horseshoe shape draped across the state (Dauer 1972: 126). Republicanism got a further boost with the election in 1954 of the first GOP congressman of the 20^th century, William C. Cramer, who as a county party leader, a Republican national committeeman, and a state party committee member had built up the state party organization so that it could field and support candidates for office (Dauer 1972: 115; Bass and DeVries 1977: 117). Yet as late as 1965 the GOP occupied less than 10% of state legislative seats, only 2 of 12 U.S. house seats, and had not elected a governor or U.S. senator since Reconstruction (Bass and DeVries 1977: 34-37). Three temporary GOP election victories in the late 1960s and in 1980 would finally signal an end to the Democratic Party’s near-monopoly of Florida’s political life.

Republican Breakthroughs in a Majority Democratic Party State

Republicans scored their first major breakthrough with the election in 1966 of businessman Claude Kirk as governor, a man whose personality and campaign style was uniquely tailored to fit the state’s individualistic political environment. The flamboyant Kirk, a “big, rugged man with a booming voice and a rough-and-ready manner,” was a natural campaigner who “loved publicity,” and was a “brilliant speaker- articulate, forceful, and colorful” as well as a “gifted storyteller” (Kallina 1993: 35 1^st quote, 22 other quotes). Democrats were crippled by a bitter primary in which Miami Mayor Robert King High unseated Governor Haydon Burns after High accused the governor of lacking integrity and Burns blasted High as an “ultraliberal” who was pandering to the “’bloc vote’ (i.e. blacks)” (Lamis 1990: 182 1^st quote; Kallina 1993: 28, 2^nd quote).

Picking up the theme that High was “an ultraliberal who was the agent of Lyndon Johnson and the Great Society,” Republican Kirk portraying himself as a “progressive” conservative who would keep taxes down but improve such important state services as education (Kallina 1993: 30 1^st quote, 36 2^nd quote, 32). As defeated Democratic governor Burns’ operatives statewide joined the Republican’s campaign effort and as Kirk relentlessly stressed the issue of crime and blamed the liberal mayor of Miami for the city’s high crime rate, High unwisely made half-hour speeches on television instead of the “short, dramatic television spots” aired by his opponent (Kallina 1993: 35 quote, 36-37). Needless to say, Republicans elected their first governor since Reconstruction with 55% of the vote (Lamis 1990: 182).

Kirk as governor is credited with helping to create the state’s first law enforcement agency, promoting environmental protection measures, appointing a director of roads who pursued long-range planning based on population and need rather than politics, modernizing government to greatly reduced the number of state agencies, and using the line-item veto to keep spending down (Kallina 1993: 64, 66, 68, 80, 142, 167). He was nevertheless hurt by a teachers’ strike over inadequate state support for education and teacher salaries, a strike that angered voters whose kids were now stuck at home (Kallina 1993: 87-90). In terms of race relations, Kirk is infamous for being so opposed to busing that he took control of one school district to delay a desegregation order, and only backed down after a federal judge threatened him and two of his aides with a contempt of court fine (Kallina 1993: 172, 174). And although the Republican governor had campaigned against higher taxes, he “was forced to accept various increases in his four years” (Kallina 1993: 212). Though he would only serve one, four-year term as governor and Republicans would wander in the gubernatorial wilderness for the next sixteen years, opportunities for the GOP would present themselves in the U.S. senate.

Republicans won their first U.S. senate seat in 1968 after another bloody Democratic primary war. LeRoy Collins, one of the state’s few “liberal” governors, narrowly defeated the state attorney general in the runoff after having his racial liberalism used against him. Republicans nominated the conservative Congressman Edward Gurney, a “handsome” man who proceeded to use modern campaign techniques to project himself as a dynamic “fighter, a man of action, an effective leader,” while his Democratic opponent (like the gubernatorial loser two years earlier) ran “30-minute televised documentaries that people were not watching” (Bass and DeVries 1977: 122 1^st quote, 123 other quotes). Blasting his opponent as “Liberal LeRoy” and benefited by supporters circulating in rural North Florida areas a picture of Collins walking with civil rights leader Martin Luther King, Jr., Gurney went on to win a landslide 56% of the vote (Lamis 1990: 183). As senator, Gurney continued to record a conservative voting record (Barone, Ujifusa, and Matthews 1973: 188).

Democrats in 1970 reminded the temporarily surging GOP that they remained the majority party in Florida (outnumbering Republicans in the public’s partisan ties by a two-to-one margin) by regaining the governorship and retaining an open U.S. senate seat. This time the Republicans were bitterly divided, as Governor Kirk was forced into a runoff by fellow Republicans who accused him of being insufficiently conservative, citing Kirk’s desperate endorsement of Nelson’s Rockefeller’s unsuccessful 1968 GOP presidential nomination bid in an effort to win a Vice Presidential nod (as late as 1976 “Rocky” was hated by conservative Republicans for his refusal to support Barry Goldwater in 1964, citing Goldwater’s “extremism”)(Kallina 1993: 187). Democrats nominated an attractive populist with the image of a common man, a man from a large family where his father was a carpenter and his mother a maid, who had been taught by his mother to “hold our heads high and work” (Bass and DeVries 1977: 128). A serious “nondrinking, nonsmoking Presbyterian elder,” the Democrat Reuben Askew, who had served as state representative and state senator for a total of twelve years and had gained the reputation of working 14-hour days, was viewed by voters as “a refreshing and captivating new personality, honest and decent, untouched and untarnished by association with the past” (Bass and DeVries 1977: 124 1^st quote; Kallina 1993: 192). While Governor Kirk desperately attacked his moderate opponent as a liberal who would support higher taxes, Askew benefited from public dissatisfaction with the governor’s performance, fueled by a weak state economy during his tenure (Kallina 1993: 179, 185, 193, 194, 196). Askew also sounded the populist note by supporting the creation of a corporate income tax, charging that “tax freeloaders” were not “paying their fair share of taxes,” and went on to win office with a landslide 57% of the vote (Lamis 1990: 184; Bass and DeVries 1977: 124).

Askew as governor was relatively progressive. As a New South governor, he pledged “equal rights for all our people” and issued an executive order that established an affirmative action plan that doubled the numbers of blacks in state government (Colburn and Scher 1980: 228 quote, 230). In the midst of emotional desegregation orders that required forced busing, Askew reminded Floridians of the “value of our public school system” and that the law demanded “that we put an end to segregation in our society,” and that people should not merely “live with their differences- but to thrive upon them” (Bass and DeVries 1977: 127). He also fulfilled his campaign pledge by convincing the legislature and the public to approve a constitutional amendment to establish a corporate income tax, as well as promoted environmental protection measures, increased workman’s compensation benefits, and supported the unionization of public employees (Bass and DeVries 1977: 126, 129; Colburn and Scher 1980: 204). He pursued a moderate course on crime, urging a greater stress on rehabilitation of offenders and vetoing a homeowner shoot-to-kill bill, while also supporting mandatory prison sentences for those using dangerous weapons to commit a crime and backing harsher penalties for repeat offenders (Colburn and Scher 1980: 265). He was easily reelected in 1974 with 61% of the vote over former Democratic lieutenant governor and now Republican Jerry Thomas, whose efforts to cast the governor as an extreme “liberal” fell on the deaf ears of a public who had come to trust Askew’s integrity (Lamis 1990: 186-187; Bass and DeVries 1977: 130).

Another Democratic fresh face who was able to exploit the individualistic culture of Florida politics with an appealing campaign image was the nominee for an open U.S. senate seat, state senator Lawton Chiles. Chiles proceeded to gain name recognition and an image as a “man of the people” by walking 1,033 miles across the state and talking with Floridians about their everyday concerns (Kallina 1993: 193 quote; Colburn and deHaven-Smith 1999: 133; Dauer 1972: 160). Republicans meanwhile had dissolved into factions, split into a Kirk-Gurney faction comprising these two top officeholders and a William Cramer faction reflecting this long-time party activist. Running for the GOP senate nomination, Cramer was forced to survive a primary battle against Harold Carswell, President Nixon’s rejected U.S. Supreme Court nominee, who was backed by Kirk and Gurney (Dauer 1972: 145). Cramer then desperately tried to pin the liberal label on his Democratic opponent, but the label did not stick, since “Walkin Lawton” Chiles was a small town state lawmaker who was backed by outgoing conservative U.S. Senator and former governor Spessard Holland (Colburn and deHaven-Smith 1999: 133 quote; Barone, Ujifusa, and Matthews 1972: 139). Advantaged by Democrats being the majority party of Floridians and many people merely voting their party identifications, and winning big in the historically Democratic black belt areas of North Florida, Chiles went on to win a respectable 54% of the vote (Lamis 1990: 185).

As senator, Lawton Chiles pursued a moderate course of action throughout his three terms in office, achieving conservative ACA scores that were nearly as high as his liberal ADA scores (Ehrenhalt 1983: 287; Ehrenhalt 1987: 287). Chiles remained in close contact with his constituents during his first term, spending about one-fourth of his time back home. He also retained his “man of the people” image, accepting no campaign contributions larger than $10 in his 1976 reelection campaign (Ehrenhalt 1987: 287). With his popularity discouraging serious opponents, he won 63% of the vote over conservative physician John Grady, a Republican who had been a third party candidate two years earlier (Ehrenhalt 1987: 287). Chiles likewise won a 62% landslide reelection in 1982 over state senator Van B. Poole. Once again the moderate Democrat deflected the “liberal” label by limiting his campaign contributions to the modest sum of $100 or less, and national Republican Party efforts to financially support his GOP challenger actually seemed to help Chiles by giving him the image of a “populist battling the fat cats” (Ehrenhalt 1987: 287 quote; Lamis 1990: 187, 190). Furthermore, candidate debates showed that Chiles was the much more knowledgeable candidate on the issues (Ehrenhalt 1987: 287).

Proving that they were indeed still the ruling party of Florida, Democrats in 1974 even regained the senate seat that they had temporarily lost. To fill the seat of retiring Senator Gurney, Democrats nominated New York City born, Harvard educated, Jewish lawyer Richard Stone. A former state legislator and secretary of state for a total of eight years, the moderate Stone was able to devise his own unique campaign style in this individualistic state, as he projected a down-home image while campaigning in North Florida during the primary by “playing the harmonica and spoons” (Barone, Ujifusa, and Matthews 1975: 161, 164). In the Republican primary, businessman Jack Eckerd defeated the state public utilities commissioner Paula Hawkins, and went on to lose the general election with 41% of the vote to Stone’s 44% with third party candidate John Grady, a member of the ultra-conservative John Birch Society, winning the remaining 15% (Bass and DeVries 1977: 125). Stone’s victory was attributed to his campaign style giving him an image of conservatism, plus the likelihood that Grady’s candidacy drew some conservatives from the Republican candidate (Lamis 1990: 186; Bass and DeVries 1977: 125). As senator, Stone built up a moderate voting record with conservative ACA scores generally as high as his liberal ADA scores (Barone, Ujifusa, and Matthews 1979: 174).

The dominant Democratic Party came up with another winning strategy to hold the governorship in 1978 after Askew’s two terms. Blasted in the Democratic primary by the state attorney general as a liberal former state senator, Miami businessman and lawyer Bob Graham proceeded to win a primary upset by appealing to “everyday voters” by working on one hundred different jobs over one hundred days, “including such positions as bellhop, waiter, hospital orderly, stable boy, and steelworker” (Colburn and deHaven-Smith 1999: 135 1^st quote; Colburn and Scher 1980: 87 2^nd quote; Lamis 1990: 188). Democrats quickly unified with the primary loser endorsing Graham, while Republicans were so split that the primary loser refused to endorse gubernatorial nominee and former senate campaign loser Jack Eckerd (Colburn and Scher 1980: 90). Graham’s down-to-earth campaign style, plus his selection of a veteran North Florida lawmaker with an image of a “good ol’ boy” as lieutenant governor (in Florida, these top two positions run on the same ticket, much like the U.S. President and Vice President), produced a 56% popular vote victory, as the Democratic team did well in traditionally Democratic North Florida, heavily Democratic South Florida, among blacks, and among blue-collar whites in large cities (Lamis 1990: 188 quote, 189).

As governor, Bob Graham was most known for such environmental initiatives as promotional campaigns designed to save the Everglades and the state’s coastline. He regarded himself also as the “Education Governor,” and attracted legislative support for education by linking it to economic development (Colburn and deHaven-Smith 1999: 68). He got a bill passed the legislature that taxed corporate income earned outside of the state with the increased revenue earmarked for improving education (Tauber 2005: 65). The ideologically inclusive Graham also pursued some conservative policies, such as economy in the spending of tax dollars, enforcement of the state’s death penalty law, and waging a war against illegal drug trafficking (Colburn and Scher 1980: 187, 266; Ehrenhalt 1987: 289). Graham won reelection in 1982 with a landslide 65% of the vote over conservative congressman L.A. (Skip) Bafalis, as he again ran television commercials depicting his working at various blue-collar jobs (Lamis 1990: 190; Barone and Ujifusa 1981: 232).

Democrats, who continued to outnumber Republicans over two-to-one in the public’s partisan identifications (Table 14-2), lost the 1980 senate race only because of short-term forces that benefited the minority Republican Party. Democrats were badly divided, as Insurance Commissioner Bill Gunter narrowly upset senator Stone in a “nasty, divisive spat” where he accused the incumbent of flip-flopping on such issues as school prayer and the Panama Canal Treaty, after which the defeated Stone refused to campaign for his party’s nominee (Ehrenhalt 1983: 289 quote; Colburn and deHaven-Smith 1999: 69; Lamis 1990: 189). Republicans were benefited by a popular candidate, public service commissioner Paula Hawkins, who had fought for consumers by opposing utility and telephone rate increases and who had significant name recognition from her reelection to this statewide office and from two unsuccessful bids for other state offices (Ehrenhalt 1983: 289). Hawkins’ 52% popular vote victory was also a product of her personal record of civic mindedness, of her adoption of Reagan’s rhetoric pertaining to helping only those who were poor through no fault of their own, and of President Reagan’s landslide popular vote victory in Florida (Colburn and deHaven-Smith 1999: 69; Lamis 1990: 189). As senator Paula Hawkins compiled a moderate conservative voting record, where her conservative anti-crime proposals were balanced with support for a national Martin Luther King holiday and opposition to President Reagan’s effort to limit cost-of-living increases for Social Security recipients (Ehrenhalt 1985: 298).

The Modern Era of More Balanced, Two-Party Competition

The year 1986 marked the start of the modern era of more balanced competition between the two parties. Beginning in 1986 the numbers of Republicans among average Floridians rose to roughly equal the numbers of Democrats (Table 14-2). Unlike the preceding era, at no time did one political party control all three prominent offices of governor and the state’s two U.S. senate seats (Table 14-1). Indeed, the 1986 election itself produced split results with Republicans winning back the governorship for the first time in sixteen years and Democrats winning back a U.S. senate seat.

Republicans won the governorship in 1986 after Democrats suffered a divisive primary race where former state representative Steve Pajcic narrowly beat a “law-and-order” attorney general who had attacked him as a liberal, and then refused to support him after the primary (Lamis 1990: 293 quote; Colburn and deHaven-Smith 1999: 69). Republican Bob Martinez, the former mayor of Tampa, quickly picked up the liberal label to hang on his Democratic opponent. Martinez also attracted Hispanics in Dade county (housing Miami) with his Hispanic (Spain) heritage, and won over North Florida residents with “his Southern drawl” (Lamis 1990: 293). The GOP closing of the partisan gap in the public’s partisan ties and their party registrations also helped Martinez win with 55% of the vote (Lamis 1990: 294). As governor, Martinez pursued a relatively progressive program, protecting the environment with a trust fund that would buy and preserve endangered lands, announcing the start of a Florida Lottery with the profit used to enhance education, and raising taxes on services and on gasoline, cigarettes, and alcohol to help fund state services in general and highway improvements particularly. He also promoted a massive prison construction program (Carver and Fiedler 1999: 349; Colburn and deHaven-Smith 1999: 138; Tauber 2005: 66).

Democrats scored a split decision in 1986 by unseating U.S. senator Paula Hawkins with popular two-term governor Bob Graham. The popular Graham led the race throughout, inoculated himself against any charge of liberalism by running an ad that showed him in a state police helicopter seeking to locate drug smugglers, and blasted his opponent’s job performance as lacking in any initiative in trying to set the senate policy agenda (Lamis 1990: 293; Ehrenhalt 1987: 289). Hawkins was hurt by her image of being a senate “lightweight” and of being too eccentric, her campaign was delayed as she recovered from back surgery, and she made two controversial statements that seemed to question the patriotism of both Mexican Americans and her opponent (Ehrenhalt 1987: 289). Graham went on to an impressive 55% popular vote victory, putting together the same geographically and ideologically diverse coalition of the liberal southeast and the rural north that had elected Chiles to the senate and Askew and himself to the governorship (Colburn and deHaven-Smith 1999: 72).

Bob Graham in his first U.S. senate term earned a moderate liberal voting record, as he balanced his liberal-leaning voting tendencies with support for the Gulf War, for the death penalty, and for some anti-communist measures pertaining to Nicaragua and Cuba (Duncan 1993: 320, 322). He was easily reelected in 1992 with 65% of the vote over former U.S. congressman Bill Grant, a moderate Democrat before switching to the GOP and then losing his house seat (Duncan 1989: 298). Even Grant conceded that the popular Graham was “the best politician in the state,” and that he was “sincere,” and the Republican challenger was outspent by a 12-1 margin and relegated to driving his own Jeep Wagoneer to campaign across the state (Carver and Fiedler 1999: 351 quotes, 352; Duncan 1993: 322). Likewise, Graham “coasted to re-election” in 1998, winning 62.5% of the vote over state senator Charles Crist (Duncan and Nutting 1999: 282, 284). An interesting commentary on the leftward drift of southern Democrats, though, was that Graham’s senate voting record after his first reelection drifted to the left. For the ten-year period from 1993 through 2002, this veteran Democratic senator posted a “liberal” record on seven occasions and a moderate liberal record on only three occasions (Hawkings and Nutting 2003: 217).

Republicans scored a comeback in 1988 to win the U.S. senate seat being vacated by retiring senator Lawton Chiles. Both parties suffered bruising primary battles, which produced a contest between two congressmen, conservative Connie Mack and moderate liberal Buddy MacKay (Ehrenhalt 1987: 307, 326). Mack proceeded to tie himself to the popular President Ronald Reagan and to tie his opponent to likely presidential loser Michael Dukakis, as he brought in President Reagan and administration conservative hero Ollie North to head fundraisers. The Republican also raised the L word, running a commercial chanting: “Hey Buddy, you’re too liberal!” (Hulbary, Kelley, and Bowman 1991: 171 quote). With the conservative Mack promising “less taxing, less spending, less government and more freedom,” and the more moderate liberal MacKay trying to recast the contest as a choice between “mainstream vs. extreme” values, the “boyishly handsome” Mack pulled out a razor-thin 34,518 vote victory among over four million ballots cast (Duncan 1989: 294 1^st two quotes; Carver and Fiedler 1999: 359 3^rd quote).

As senator Connie Mack earned a conservative voting record with conservative ACU ratings always at 80 or above and liberal ADA scores always 15 or lower, though tempered by support for such medical issues as breast cancer research and the use of fetal tissue in medical research, the latter of obvious interest to the aging population of Florida (Duncan and Nutting 1999: 286). Democrats in Mack’s 1994 reelection bid could only come up with an assistant public defender and a party activist, First Lady Hillary Clinton’s brother Hugh Rodham. Outspent by a 6-1 margin, Rodham won only 29.5% of the vote as Republican Mack was reelected in a sweeping 70.5% popular vote victory (Carver and Fiedler 1999: 359; Duncan and Nutting 1999: 285, 1524).

Democrats scored their own comeback two years after Mack’s initial election with one of their living legends, as the popular retired U.S. senator Lawton Chiles reentered political life to wrest the governorship from the Republican incumbent. Martinez was wounded by his support for an alcoholic beverage tax that became known as “the ‘Governor Bob’ beer tax,” and he lost the support of many female voters by attempting (unsuccessfully) to enact harsh restrictions on abortions (Carver and Fiedler 1999: 349 quote, 350). Chiles was helped by his selection of the well respected and qualified Buddy MacKay as his lieutenant governor running mate, by his domination of the debates, and by his limiting the campaign donations that he would accept to $100, as he coasted to a landslide unseating of the incumbent with 57% of the popular vote (Carver and Fiedler 1999: 349-350).

Chiles entered his 1994 reelection race handicapped by a recession that produced some painful state budget cuts, as well as by the national surge towards the GOP. He had also angered some African Americans by vetoing a civil rights bill that would have provided victims of racial discrimination punitive damages, claiming that the bill would only benefit trial lawyers (Tauber 2005: 53; see website: http://www.afn.org/~sun/elect/nulawled.htm). To challenge Chiles, Republicans nominated one of the sons of former president George Herbert Walker Bush, Jeb, who was also a party activist who had served as former governor Martinez's commerce secretary. Bush proceeded to drop the racial ball, as when he was asked what he would do for the black community he quipped, "probably nothing" (Tauber 2005: 53). Trailing in the polls, Chiles proceeded during a debate to seek rural support by calling himself an "old he-coon" and claiming to speak "Cracker" (Colburn and deHaven-Smith 1999: 72). The veteran Democrat also lashed out at Bush for his alleged shady business practices, which included a busted real estate deal that required a “savings and loan bailout” (Carver and Fiedler 1999: 353 quote, 354). When the Bush camp ran an ad featuring a murdered girl’s mother blaming the governor for a delay in imposing the death penalty on the girl’s convicted killer, Chiles in a debate explained that he had as governor “executed eight men,” that he gave “the last command before they pull the switch,” and that he was ashamed that Bush “would use the loss of a mother in an ad like this” (Carver and Fiedler 1999: 355). Chiles was also aided by a ballot measure that would have legalized casino gambling, which drew more senior citizens and blacks to the polls, and he pulled out a narrow 51% reelection victory in a bleak year nationally for Democrats (Carver and Fiedler 1999: 355).

Republicans were able to take some consolation by gaining control of the state senate for the first time since Reconstruction, by winning half of the statewide elective offices below governor, and by also gaining control of the state house two years later (Table 14-2). Republican legislative gains in 1994 were attributed to the national anti-incumbent mood that produced a GOP landslide nationally, an influx of national and state GOP funds that paid for a wave of attack ads in the final weeks of the campaign, more Democratic than Republican incumbents retiring, and Republicans targeting more legislative seats (Carver and Fiedler 1999: 363). Republicans in 1994 also captured the statewide offices of secretary of state, education commissioner, and comptroller, with Democrats winning the offices of attorney general, treasurer-insurance commissioner, and agriculture commissioner (Carver and Fiedler 1999: 356-358). Despite these GOP breakthroughs in state government, Governor Chiles’ second term was marked by some notable accomplishments, which included a $2.7 billion dollar statewide school construction program and an $11.3 billion dollar tobacco lawsuit settlement (see websites: http://www.lawtonchiles.org/school.html and http://museumoffloridahistory.com/resources/collections/governors/about.cfm?id=48). Chiles also took such ideologically diverse actions as signing a charter school bill and vetoing a bill banning late-term abortions because it did not include an exception that protected the mother’s health (Tauber 2005: 63, 67).

The second try was the charm for Jeb Bush, who won the governorship for the Republicans in 1998 with a convincing 55% of the vote over Democratic lieutenant governor Buddy MacKay. Bush offered a conservative platform that sought to “reduce taxes, downsize government, reform schools, and implement a conservative social agenda” (Colburn and deHaven-Smith 1999: 73). He nevertheless increased his share of the African American vote to 14% and won 60% of the Latino vote (his wife Columba is Mexican), as the Republican portrayed himself as more supportive of minority issues than he had been four year earlier (Tauber and Hulbary 2002: 150). Democrats themselves dropped the ball on one key minority issue, as state House Democrats the year before had deposed the African American minority leader in favor of a white, allegedly because of the black leader’s liberalism and weakness in fund-raising, prompting a Black Caucus walkout of the Democratic caucus and resulting in three African American lawmakers endorsing Bush over MacKay (Tauber 2005: 54; Tauber and Hulbary 2002: 150; Carver and Fiedler 1999: 374).

As governor, Jeb Bush proceeded to implement his conservative agenda. He announced his “One Florida” executive order that ended the state’s practice of granting preferences to minorities in job hiring, promotions, and the awarding of state contracts. This order also ended the use of affirmative action for admissions into Florida’s higher education institutions, replacing it with guaranteed admissions for graduates in the top one-fifth of each high school, prompting protests led by African Americans outside of the governor’s mansion and the state capitol (Tauber and Hulbary 2002: 150-151). Bush also signed into law a private school voucher program, a tax cut on stocks and bonds investment returns, and a three-strikes law providing for life imprisonment for conviction of a third felony (Tauber 2005: 64, 66).

The popular Bush won reelection in 2002 with a slightly larger 56% of the vote over lawyer and novice candidate Bill McBride. Democrats were hurt by election irregularities in the disputed party primary, where Janet Reno, President Clinton’s former attorney general and a favorite of liberals, suffered a razor-thin defeat to the former Marine, Bill McBride. Republicans also won the offices of attorney general and agriculture commissioner, which along with the only other office still elected statewide, the new chief financial officer position that combined the comptroller and treasurer and was held by a Republican, gave the GOP a sweep of statewide elected officials (see website: http://election.dos.state.fl.us/index.html). Republican numbers in the state legislature and U.S. House also kept growing so that after the 2004 elections the GOP controlled about two-thirds of state legislative seats and 18 of the state’s 25 U.S. House districts, numbers reduced after the 2006 national GOP disaster (Table 14-2).

The seesaw in alternations of party wins in elections for important offices continued with split outcomes for open U.S. senate seats in the early years of the 21^st century. Democrats won in 2000, electing state treasurer-insurance commissioner and former congressman Bill Nelson with 51% of the vote over former congressman Bill McCollum’s 46%. Nelson had compiled a moderate voting record in congress, and as insurance commissioner he had fought to hold down homeowner insurance rates after Hurricane Andrew, as well as helped to obtain a settlement for African Americans overcharged for life insurance and burial insurance policies (Koszczuk and Stern 2005: 224; Tauber and Hulbary 2002: 164). The crafty Democrat proceeded to brand his Republican opponent as “too far to the right for Florida,” since McCollum as a congressman had amassed a consistently conservative voting record and he had served as a prosecutor in the partisan impeachment effort against President Clinton (Koszczuk and Stern 2005: 224 quote; Duncan and Nutting 1999: 310).

As senator Nelson has veered to the left, typically receiving liberal ADA scores of about 80 and conservative ACU scores of about 20. He has, for example, voted to extend a ban on assault weapons and to limit the size of President Bush’s tax cut, as well as voted against a constitutional amendment outlawing same-sex marriage, against a ban on partial birth abortion, and against criminalizing harm to the fetus in an attack on the mother (Koszczuk and Stern 2005: 224). He nevertheless won reelection in 2006 with a landslide 60% of the vote, once again benefiting from the GOP nomination of a candidate viewed as too conservative for most Floridians, this time Katherine Harris, who won over only 38% of voters. Harris, the controversial secretary of state during the disputed 2000 presidential race in Florida, was elected to congress in 2002 and had compiled a conservative voting record (Koszczuk and Stern 2005: 252). Indeed, Republican leaders in Florida had desperately tried to find a candidate to challenge her nomination bid, fearing that her “erratic behavior and irrational tirades to the press” would spell defeat in November, though Harris refused to bow out, “insisting that God wants her to be a senator” (Chait 2006: 14). Upon nomination Harris proceeded to alienate everyone except the Christian Right when she proclaimed that: "If you’re not electing Christians then in essence you are going to legislate sin" (Wheeler 2006). Praised in a prominent newspaper endorsement for his “lifetime of public service” and for being a “middle of the road” incumbent “who doesn’t blindly vote the party line,” Nelson proceeded to win reelection by racking up the votes of 55% of whites, 68% of Independents, 70% of moderates, and even 32% of conservatives (quotes in Tallahassee.com, 2006a; exit polls in http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/FL/S/01/epolls.0.html)

Republicans returned the favor by winning the open 2004 senate seat with Mel Martinez, the first Cuban American to serve in the Senate, who had been airlifted out of Cuba at the age of 15 and had lived in foster homes. A social conservative on issues like abortion and gay marriage, Martinez gained a reputation for bipartisanship in his professional life. As a trial lawyer, he had helped “poor clients and fellow immigrants win handsome settlements from companies,” as Orange County chairman he had managed community growth by tying new home approval to school construction, and as George W. Bush’s Housing and Urban Development secretary he had created a center for faith-based community services (Koszczuk and Stern 2005: 225 quote, 226). Democrats nominated former state education commissioner Betty Castor, who was blasted by Martinez for failing to fire, when she was president of the University of South Florida, a professor who was accused of aiding terrorists. With terrorism being the top issue in voters’ minds in both the presidential and senate contest, and with Martinez winning 80% of the votes of those rating terrorism as the most important issue, he went on to pull out a narrow 49% popular vote victory to Castor's 48% vote (MacManus 2005: 157-158; exit poll is at http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/FL/S/01/epolls.0.html). Republicans were also buoyed by carrying Florida in the presidential race for the eleventh time in fourteen contests beginning in 1952, since only southerners Johnson in 1964, Carter in 1976, and Clinton in 1996 had been able to hold Florida in the Democratic column (until Obama). Indeed, the CNN exit poll cited above showed Martinez winning 83% of the votes of the 54% of voters who approved of President Bush's job performance.

Republicans were also able to retain the governorship in 2006 with attorney general Charlie Crist. Crist benefited from outgoing governor Jeb Bush’s popularity, a popularity fueled by Bush’s legislative successes of annual tax cuts, cuts in state government jobs and in wasteful spending, tort reform and child welfare reform, Medicaid innovations relying on private competition, and a high job creation rate and a low 3.3% unemployment rate (Strassel 2006). Endorsed by a prominent newspaper, Crist benefited from his reputation of being an independent thinker rather than a blind party loyalist, as he broke with the national GOP by supporting civil unions, stem cell research, the abortion status quo, and even the re-enfranchisement of felons (Tallahassee.com, 2006b). Indeed, Crist was so committed to elevating the interests of Floridians over those of Washington Republicans that he “snubbed” the President by deciding to campaign elsewhere when Bush made a campaign visit to Florida the day before the election, leaving the President to be greeted by his brother the governor and by the electorally hopeless Katherine Harris (cnn.com, 2006). Crist proceeded to win 52% of the vote to liberal Democratic Congressman Jim Davis’ 45%, as the Republican won 18% of the black vote and 14% of Democrats while splitting the Hispanic, moderate, and independent vote with Davis (Koszczuk and Stern 2005: 248; exit poll results in http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/FL/G/00/epolls.0.html). Democrats took some solace in breaking the GOP monopoly of cabinet offices by winning the chief financial officer’s race, though Republicans retained the offices of attorney general and agriculture commissioner.

The national GOP landslide year of 2010 was also good to Republicans in Florida, as they retained open seats for governor and the U.S. senate despite a split party in both contests. Despite a bitter gubernatorial primary struggle with the state's attorney general, Bill McCollum, GOP victor and health care business executive Rick Scott managed to eek out a narrow win over Democratic Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink. Facing 12% unemployment and the nation's second highest foreclosure rate, Floridians preferred businessman Scott's "outsider" image (Bauerlein, 2010). With 54% of exit poll voters very worried about economic conditions and 44% of voters believing that their family's financial situation had become worse, Scott's 68% and 63% support among these two groups helped the GOP hold the governor's mansion vacated by Charlie Crist (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#val=FLG00p1). Meanwhile, Republicans also managed to hold on to Mel Martinez's senate seat, despite having two Republicans in the race, as governor Crist belatedly decided to run as an Independent given the strength of the conservative, tea party favorite Marco Rubio, a Cuban American and a former state House speaker. In the three-way general election, Rubio won 49% of the vote to Crist's 30%, relegating the Democrat, liberal African American congressman Kendrick Meek, to a third place showing of 20%. Thirty six percent of exit poll voters were Republicans and 39% were conservatives, and Rubio won the votes of 87% and 82% of these groups. Though Democrats also comprised 36% of voters, they split their votes pretty evenly between Meek and Crist. Rubio did well among the middle of the electorate, winning 51% of Independents and his share of 36% of moderates (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#FLS01p1).

The 2012 election year illustrated how competitive Florida politics had become, as Democrats reelected Senator Bill Nelson and narrowly carried the state for Obama, while Republicans retained overwhelming control of Florida's U.S. House delegation and both chambers of the state legislature (though with slightly reduced margins). Emphasizing his moderate reputation and his desire to end the bitter ideological divide between the parties in Washington, Nelson defeated conservative congressman Connie Mack who sought to link the incumbent with President Obama and his health care law (Klas and Sanders 2012). Nelson's bipartisan message won him 61% of moderates and 57% of Independents in exit polls, and not only did Democrats outnumber Republicans among voters by a narrow 35-33% margin, but Nelson won a greater share of his party identifiers than did Mack (92% versus 83%)(see website: http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/results/senate/exit-polls?state=fl).

The 2014 gubernatorial election once again illustrated how modern Florida had become a real tossup state in terms of major statewide elections. Both parties offered heavy hitters with Democrats nominating former governor and Republican-turned-Independent-turned Democrat Charlie Crist seeking to upend Republican governor Rick Scott. CNN exit polls showed that Crist (with 51% favorable to 44% unfavorable ratings) was more personally popular than Scott (44% favorable to 53% unfavorable), but President Obama was as unpopular in Florida as he was nationally (57% disapproval rating). Perhaps the decisive factor given that identifiers of both parties voted about 90% for their party's candidate and that Independents split almost evenly between them was that unlike 2012 Republicans had a 4% edge over Democrats among voters (35% versus 31%). Some political observers also attributed the Republican victory to a superior ground game and to heavy late spending on TV ads that increased GOP turnout, as the embattled incumbent pumped nearly $13 million of his own money into the race (Smith and Caputo 2014).

The 2016 elections reinforced how competitive Florida was in statewide races. Trump won the state with only 50.6% of the two party vote, and incumbent GOP Senator Rubio was reelected with only 54% of the two party vote. After the national GOP begged Rubio to seek reelection after his failed GOP presidential bid, Rubio distanced himself from the divisive presidential race by explaining that, "This election is a disturbing choice between someone that I disagree with on many things and someone who I disagree with on virtually everything" (King 2016). While Democrat two-term congressman Patrick Murphy billed himself as a "problem-solver able to work across the aisle" who had "formed the bipartisan United Solutions Caucus," the negativism that state voters held towards Hillary Clinton exerted a slightly greater effect on the vote than did Trump's unpopularity (https://www.murphyforflorida.com/about-patrick/). Fully 88% of those with unfavorable attitudes toward Clinton backed Rubio, compared to 85% of those favorable towards the Democratic presidential nominee who backed Murphy, and Clinton's negatives outpolled her positives with 53% of voters negative towards her and only 43% positive. Rubio also retained some personal popularity, gaining 52% support among Independents and retaining 48% of the Latino vote. The virtual partisan tossup in modern Florida was illustrated by Republicans outnumbering Democrats by only 1% among voters (33% versus 32%)(http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/florida/senate). Republicans retained their strong margins in both chambers of the state legislature, however, and despite suffering a net loss of one U.S. House seat nevertheless retained 59% of the state's congressional seats.

The 2018 elections illustrated how Florida had become a partisan tossup, as Republicans won the governorship and a senate seat with less than 1% of the vote, and Democrats came within one seat of gaining a majority of the state's U.S. House delegation. Backing tax cuts and Trump's Supreme Court choices while opposing Obamacare, GOP governor Rick Scott relied on his personal fortune to unseat Senator Bill Nelson with the theme that the Democrat was "an ineffective and tired career politician who has been in Washington for too long." (Contorno et al., 2018). Iraq veteran Ron DeSantis, a Tea Party backed Congressman endorsed by President Trump, was elected governor over Tallahassee mayor Andrew Gillum, an African American. The Republican urged voters to not "monkey this up" (the state's good economy) by voting for Gillum, whose support for Medicaid expansion, Bernie Sanders' Medicare for All plan, and $1 billion in more education spending would raise taxes and cost the state jobs (Mahoney 2018). Both Democratic candidates were strong enough to carry about 55% of Independents and 61% of moderates, though both Republicans carried about 45% of Latinos, and the 4% GOP party id edge among voters was decisive as each party voted at least 91% for its party's senate and gubernatorial nominees (CNN exit poll). Florida elected (running on the ticket with Republican DeSantis) its first Latina Lieutenant Governor, Jeanette Nunez, the Speaker Pro Tempore of the state House, who had been born in Miami to Cuban parents. Democrats elected one statewide official, Nikki Fried, a South Florida attorney, as Agriculture Commissioner. Fried attributed her victory to a non-partisan campaign that stressed gun control, increased access to medical marijuana, and the public desire "to let some women into office" (Gross 2018).

The 2022 elections suggested that over a mere 4-year period, Florida had become a pretty Republican state. CNN exit polls found that 42% of voters were Republicans and only 28% Democrats (30% were Independents), providing the GOP with 60% of the two parties' adherents. As such, GOP Governor Ron DeSantis' 60% landslide and Senator Marco Rubio's 58% reelection were very similar to their party's emerging dominance of the electorate. Democrats offered quality challengers in both races with Congresswoman Val Demmings (an African American) facing Rubio and Congressman and former governor Charlie Crist facing DeSantis. Demmings was a gutsy 27-year police veteran and first female police chief of Orlando who as a House Judiciary Committee member during the Trump impeachment aggressively reminded everyone that no one was above the law. Ron DeSantis' successes as governor and his national prominence saw him raise "an astonishing $189 million" as of September 28, swamping his opponent by a 15-1 margin in television ads (Perry, 2022). Democrat Crist, a former governor and Republican, opened with a clearly liberal message, talking about "LGBTQ and abortion rights" issues, praising President Biden, and accusing the governor of being "anti-democracy... anti-women... anti-African American... and against Florida" (Phillips 2022).

Competitive Party Politics in Modern Individualistic Campaigns

Florida Democrats entered the last thirty-five years of the 20^th century with monopolistic control over the state’s gubernatorial and U.S. senate election outcomes, though Republicans as in other Rim South states had scored breakthroughs in recent presidential election outcomes. Republicans finally achieved breakthroughs by winning the governorship in 1966 and senate contests in 1968 and 1980, but in all three instances the party lost these offices in the next election (Table 14-1). The second term of the Reagan presidency marked an important GOP breakthrough, as Republicans closed the gap with the Democrats in the public’s partisan identifications and was always able to control at least one of the state’s three U.S. senate-gubernatorial positions. The turn of the century even saw Republicans controlling both chambers of the state legislature, a majority of the state’s U.S. House delegation, and a majority of cabinet offices (Table 14-2).

Democrats maintained their political dominance before 1986 by offering true titans, much as Arkansas Democrats had done. Two Democratic governors and one U.S. senator were clearly able to relate to average citizens, as Governor Reubin Askew came from a humble background and was a religious non-drinker and non-smoker, while Governor Graham had empathized with average voters by working at one hundred different jobs, and Senator Chiles had walked across the entire state to talk with average Floridians (Table 14-3). Even one term senator Richard Stone could relate to average rural residents with his harmonica and spoon playing campaign stunts. Once in office, Democrats posted middle-of-the-road records, as both U.S. senators Chiles and Stone maintained essentially “moderate” voting records (Table 14-4). In this Democratic era, Republicans were only able to win these top offices because of divisions within the Democratic ranks. Republican Claude Kirk was elected governor in 1966 after a liberal Democrat unseated the conservative governor in the party primary. Ed Gurney was elected senator in 1968 after a liberal former governor defeated a more conservative Democrat in the primary. Republican Paula Hawkins was elected senator in 1980 only after her Democratic opponent unseated the incumbent senator of his party, prompting the incumbent’s boycott of his own party’s nominee in November.

The modern post-1986 era of Florida politics has been described as “one of the most competitive party systems in the South,” though “one with a tilt to conservatism and the Republican party” (Knuckey 2003: 141 1^st quote; Carver and Fiedler 1999: 345 2^nd quote). In any state where the public is pretty evenly divided in partisanship between the two major parties, short-term forces such as issues, candidate attributes, and party or campaign developments decide elections. The individualistic nature of political campaigns in Florida makes the personality traits of candidates particularly important. State Democrats have relied on promotion of their past political titans to higher office to maintain political power with Governor Graham elected senator in 1986 and former Senator Chiles elected governor in 1990, while Republicans have reached out to Hispanics by offering attractive candidates with an ethnic background. Hispanic Bob Martinez sported a southern drawl on the road to the governorship in 1986, while Cuban American Mel Martinez had a compelling life story as a Cuban refugee and foster child on his road to the senate in 2004. Jeb Bush was not merely the son of a former U.S. President, but also had a Mexican American wife, Columba, whom he had met in her Mexican hometown of Leon-Guanajato. Sometimes, a candidate’s personal attributes do not benefit a party, as when Democrats nominated Hillary Clinton’s brother to try to unseat the “boyishly handsome” Senator Connie Mack.

Campaign issues and party developments are other important determinants of election outcomes in modern Florida. Chiles unseated GOP governor Martinez in 1990 after the incumbent’s policies had alienated many women and many drinkers, and he won reelection by exploiting his Republican challenger’s business problems and his controversial advertisement about the death penalty (Table 14-3). Democrat Bill Nelson was elected senator by blasting his opponent who had managed the Clinton impeachment effort as a conservative extremist, while Republican Mel Martinez also won a senate seat by exploiting his opponent’s failure to fire a professor accused of supporting terrorists. Bush won the governorship after black lawmakers were angered at white Democrats stripping an African American colleague of his legislative leadership post, and then won reelection after a disputed Democratic primary contest that was lost by liberal hero Janet Reno. Connie Mack was elected senator after blasting his Democratic opponent as a liberal and tying himself to the popular Republican president Reagan.

In the intensely competitive political environment of Florida, such a microcosm of the nation that its disputed presidential contest of 2000 held the nation hostage for weeks, voters may be increasingly offered the choice of voting for the lesser of two evils. Both parties have moved towards the ideological extremes over the past few decades. Whereas Democrats used to be the broad tent party with party activists as late as 1991 being ideologically split, today’s Democrats are a relatively liberal bunch. In 2001, 63% of Florida Democratic activists described themselves as liberal, while only 28% were moderate and 9% conservative. Republican activists were also ideologically homogeneous with 87% in 2001 being conservative and only 11% moderate and 2% liberal (Knuckey 2003: 135). Such ideological conformity may have hurt Republican chances of appealing to average voters in previous decades, but the same problem may be developing in the state Democratic Party. Today’s Democrats are a far cry from the party’s leadership as recently as 1991, when fully 32% of Democratic county chairs still described themselves as moderates and 29% as conservatives with the remainder of 39% being liberal (Hulbary, Kelley, and Bowman 1995: 33).

The ideological polarization of the parties is also quite evident in the state’s congressional delegation, where the influence of national issues and presidential politics may be putting Democrats at a disadvantage. Over the past fifteen years Democrats Bob Graham and Bill Nelson have compiled liberal voting records, while Republicans Connie Mack and Mel Martinez have posted conservative voting records (Table 14-4). After the 2004 elections, Florida Democrats retained control of only seven U.S. house seats (reduced to 6 after the disastrous 2010 elections). The Democratic seats after the” 2004 election were held by three liberal African Americans representing majority black or majority black/Hispanic districts that voted for John Kerry, a liberal white whose district contained the oldest population of any Florida district and which also backed Kerry, a liberal white representing a Kerry district that was 27% black and 20% Hispanic in composition, a liberal white female from a Kerry district in Miami whose population included many gays and Jews, and only one moderate liberal from a district carried by the statewide vote winner, George Bush. Republicans represented the state's other eighteen districts after the 2004 elections, seventeen of which were carried by Bush. All but one of these GOP congress members posted conservative voting records (one was moderate conservative). An interesting exception to the region-wide racial homogeneity of Republican congress members is that three of the GOP congress members were Hispanic, being Cuban Americans who posted conservative voting records (Koszczuk and Stern 2005: 227-274). Florida, as a microcosm of the nation, is exhibiting the type of ideological and quite likely partisan divisiveness that has existed nationally since the 1994 GOP tsunami. How the political situation plays itself out over the coming years, therefore, may have important implications for the nature of party politics across our entire nation.

Table 14-1

Governors and U.S. Senators and Their Parties in Modern Florida

	Democrats			Republicans
	Governors	Senators	Senators	Governors	Senators	Senators
1970	Askew*	Chiles*				Gurney
1972	Askew	Chiles				Gurney
1974	Askew*	Chiles	Stone*
1976	Askew	Chiles*	Stone
1978	Graham*	Chiles	Stone
1980	Graham	Chiles				Hawkins*
1982	Graham*	Chiles*				Hawkins
1984	Graham	Chiles				Hawkins
1986		Chiles	Graham*	B. Martinez*
1988			Graham	B. Martinez	Mack*
1990	Chiles*		Graham		Mack
1992	Chiles		Graham*		Mack
1994	Chiles*		Graham		Mack*
1996	Chiles		Graham		Mack
1998			Graham*	Bush*	Mack
2000		Nelson*	Graham	Bush
2002		Nelson	Graham	Bush*
2004		Nelson		Bush		M. Martinez*
2006		Nelson*		Crist*		M. Martinez
2008		Nelson		Crist		M. Martinez
2010		Nelson		Scott*		Rubio*
2012		Nelson*		Scott		Rubio
2014		Nelson		Scott*		Rubio
2016		Nelson		Scott		Rubio*
2018				DeSantis*	Scott*	Rubio
2020				DeSantis	Scott	Rubio
2022				DeSantis*	Scott	Rubio*

Note: Cell entries indicate the governors and U.S. Senators elected in or serving during the years listed at the left.

* Indicates that the officeholder was elected in that year.

Table 14-2. Republican Growth in Florida

Year of Election	Pres. Vote (% Rep of 2 pty.)	U.S. Senate Seats* (% Rep of 2 pty)	Gov. Pty.*	Party Ident. (% Rep of 2 pty.)	U.S. House Seats (% Rep)	State Senate Seats (% Rep of 2 pty)	State House Seats (% Rep of 2 pty)	Sub-Gov. Office (% Rep)
1970	NA	50 (46)	D-43	NA	25	31	32	0
1972	72	50	Dem	NA	27	36	36	0
1974	NA	0 (49)	D-39	NA	33	31	28	0
1976	47	0 (37)	Dem	NA	33	26	23	0
1978	NA	0	D-44	34	20	28	26	0
1980	59	50 (52)	Dem	32	27	33	33	0
1982	NA	50 (38)	D-35	45	32	20	30	0
1984	65	50	Dem	43	37	20	36	0
1986	NA	0 (45)	R-55	54	37	38	38	0
1988	61	50 (50)	Rep	50	53	43	39	33
1990	NA	50	D-43	55	53	43	38	33
1992	51	50 (35)	Dem	45++	57	50	41	33
1994	NA	50 (71)	D-49	46++	65	53	48	50
1996	47	50	Dem	50+	65	58	51	50
1998	NA	50 (38)	R-55	47++	65	63	60	50
2000	50*	0 (47)	Rep	49+	65	63	64	67
2002	NA	0	R-56	NA	72	65	68	100
2004	53	50 (51)	Rep	53+	72	65	70	100
2006	NA	50 (39)	R-54	53+	64	65	65	67
2008	49	50	Rep	48+	60	65	63	67
2010	NA	50 (71)	R-51	48	76	72	68	100
2012	49.5	50 (43)	Rep	49+	63	65	63	100
2014	NA	50	R-50.5	53+	63	64	67	100
2016	51	50 (54)	Rep	49	59	63	66	100
2018	NA	100 (50)	R-50	53+	52	58	61	75**
2020	52	100	Rep	56+	59	60	65	75**
2022	NA	100 (58)	R-60	60+	71	70	71	100

Note: NA indicates not available or no election held.

Source: The Almanac of American Politics, 1972-1984; CQ=s Politics in America, 1986-2006; Carver and Fiedler (1999); Wright, Erikson, and McIver (1985); Parker (1988); Tenpas, Hulbary, and Bowman (1997); Florida Annual Policy Survey (Odom Institute for Research in Social Science); Scicchitano and Scher (2007); Bullock and Rozell (2007b); Bullock (2014, 2018); Jones (2011, 2017); 2006, 2018 CNN exit polls; and state government website http://election.dos.state.fl.us/candidate/index.asp

+ From exit poll of voters, not all adults.

++ Combines independent leaners with partisans.

* Republican Bush won Florida’s electoral votes.

** Includes lieutenant governor, which is on ticket with governor.

Table 14-3

Factors Affecting Elections of Florida Governors and U.S. Senators

Officeholder (party-year 1^st, imp. elections)	Issues	Candidate Attributes	Party/Campaign Factors	Performance Factors
Governors
Reubin Askew (D- 1970, ‘74)	Dem corporate income tax/ liberal charge	Common man, Dem populist/ trust, integrity	Divided Reps, conser. anger/	Rep. Gov. unpopular/ Rep party switcher
Bob Graham (D- 1978, ’82)		Worked 100 jobs/ works many jobs	United Dems, divided Reps/	Good ol boy N. Fla run mate/ conser Rep cong
Bob Martinez (R- 1986)	Dem blasted as liberal	Hispanic Rep, southern drawl	Divided Dems, Rep party gains	Rep former Tampa mayor
Lawton Chiles (D- 1990, ’94)	/Rep business problems, cap. punish backfire	Dem limits camp donation/ Dem rurality	Good running mate, debates/ gambling ballot	Rep gov angers women, drinker/ recession cuts
Jeb Bush (R- 1998, ‘02)	Conser. Rep, pro-minor. iss/	/ popular Republican governor	Blacks angered by bl leadr loss/ D. prim. dispute	Son of former president/ novice Dem cand.
Charlie Crist (R- 2006)	GOP social liberal	Independent thinker GOP	Rep snubs Pres. Bush	GOP Gov. Bush successful
Rick Scott (R- 2010, '14)	Bad economy under Dem President	GOP outsider, businessman	/late TV spending by Rep., self-financed; GOP party ID edge
Ron DeSantis (R- 2018, 2022)	Dem big spending liberal/Dem liberal	Dem African-American/Dem negative campaign	GOP Latina woman lieut. gov./big GOP party id edge	GOP congressman/successful GOP governor
Senators
Ed Gurney (R- 1968)	Liberal Dem vs. cons. Rep.	Rep handsome leader	Divided Dems, poor Dem ads	Racial liberal Dem gov,
Lawton Chiles (D- 1970, ’76, ‘82)	Cons. Dem backing/ limit camp contrib./	Walking Dem/ man of people/ populist vs rich	Rep factions, party Id voted/ Rep discourage/	Small town leg/ popular incumb/ knowledge. Dem
Richard Stone (D- 1974)	Dem moderate, conser image	Harmonica-spoon player D.	3^rd party draws conser. votes	Dem NY, Harvard, Jew
Paula Hawkins (R- 1980)		Civic minded Rep.	Divided Dems, Reagan big win	Pro-consumer pub. serv. comm.
Bob Graham (D- 1986, ’92, ’98)	Drug fighter Dem//	Ineffective Rep/ Dem sincere, good politician/	Rep. attacks patriotism/ Dem camp $ advan./	Popular Dem gov/ party switcher Rep/ Rep st. senator
Connie Mack (R- 1988, ‘94)	Dem liberal or mainstream?/	Boyishly handsome Rep/ Hillary brother	Rep ties self to Reagan/ Rep camp $ advant.	Cons. vs. mod. liberal cong./ Dem asst. defend
Bill Nelson (D- 2000, 06, 12)	Too extreme conser. Rep.//conservative Rep	/GOP erratic, religious right/Dem moderate, bipartisan compromiser		Pro-consumer insur comm D.//
Mel Martinez (R- 2004)	Dem weak on terrorism	Rep. Cuban, foster child		Bipartisan Rep. pub. servant
Marco Rubio (R- 2010, 2022)	GOP conservative, tea party favorite	Rep. Cuban American	/14 point GOP party advantage	Rep former state house speaker/2 term GOP Senator
Rick Scott (R- 2018)	GOP conservative	Rep anti-D.C. career politician	GOP voter edge	GOP governor

Table 14-4

Programs of Florida Governors and U.S. Senators

Officeholder (party-year 1^st elected)	Progressive Policies	Neutral Policies	Conservative Policies
Governors
Reubin Askew (D- 1970)	Race liberal, pro-worker, environment, corporate income tax	Crime- rehabilitate all, punish repeaters
Bob Graham (D- 1978)	Pro-environment, non-state bus. tax	Educ. support, helps econ. develop.	Pro-death penalty, war vs. drugs
Bob Martinez (R- 1986)	Pro-environment, lottery for education	Tax hike for highways	Massive prison construction
Lawton Chiles (D- 1990)	Veto late-term abortion ban	School building, tobacco settlement	Charter schools, civil rights bill veto
Jeb Bush (R- 1998)		Tort reform, cuts gov’t waste and jobs, high state bond rating	End race preference, school voucher, 3 strikes out, tax cut
Charlie Crist (R- 2006)	Environmentalist, expands health insurance for uninsured		Pro-guns at workplace
Rick Scott (R- 2010)			Cut taxes, cut spending
Senators
Ed Gurney (R- 1968)			Conservative voting record
Lawton Chiles (D- 1970)		Moderate record, many visits home
Richard Stone (D- 1974)		Moderate voting record
Paula Hawkins (R- 1980)	Pro-Social Security, Martin Luther King	Moderate conservative record	Anti-crime
Bob Graham (D- 1986, 1992)		Moderate liberal record/liberal record	Pro-death penalty, anti-communist/
Connie Mack (R- 1988)	Pro-breast cancer and fetal tissue research		Conservative voting record
Bill Nelson (D- 2000)	Liberal record, ban assault weapons, limit tax cut, pro-choice, gay marriage
Mel Martinez (R- 2004)			5 ADA score, 100 ACU score (lst yr)
Marco Rubio (R- 2010)			98% conservative voting record