These notes have not been updated since May 30, 2020, and are obsolete.

SPECIAL NOTE: Due to some computer problems, direct quotes are often indicated in italics, rather than quotation marks; sources and page numbers of these direct quotes are indicated in parentheses. All of the sources for these class notes are on-line here.

SOUTHERN POLITICS NOTES

WEEKS ONE-TWO
THE SOUTH IN A NATIONAL CONTEXT

Definition of South- eleven states of Civil War Confederacy. See the map of the states that seceding from the Union and that constituted the Confederacy. Also, view the map depicting the geographic extent of the cotton crop.

Historically, the South and Northeast have usually been on opposite sides of policy controversies and supported different political parties. Review the history of the American Political Party system, and the six eras of party competition. Notice how Democratic the South was before 1932. The 5th party system, from 1932 until 1968, saw the Democrats become the majority party and back liberal economic issues. In the 6th party system, Democrats nationally were liberal on a great range of issues, and the South was voting Republican in presidential elections.

POLITICAL PARTY ERAS

First- 1796-1828	Second- 1828-1860	Third- 1860-1896	Fourth- 1896-1932	Fifth- 1932-1968	Sixth- 1968-
Federalists	Whigs	Republicans	Republicans	Republicans	Republicans
National Power	Anti-Jackson coalition	Anti-slavery	Pro-business	Conservative	Conservative
Pro-business	Pro-business	Pro-business	North base	Pro-business	dealignment
Elitist	Nativist	North base	Majority pty.	High income	South base for pres.
Pro-Britain	New England base	Wins pres. elections
New England

Republicans	Democrats	Democrats	Democrats	Democrats	Democrats
States’ Rights	Agriculture	Agriculture	Agriculture	Liberal economics	Liberal
Agriculture	Catholics welcome	Anti-Radical Reconstructn	South base	New Deal coalition	dealignment
Less Elitist	Territorial expansion	South base		Workers and low income
Pro-France	South base	Controls Congress		Majority pty.
South base	Majority pty.
Majority Pty.

(Source of lecture notes on the history of the American party system: American Political Parties: Social Change and Political Response,, Everett C. Ladd Jr., 1970, W.W. Norton and Co; Transformations of the American Party System, 2nd edition, Everett C. Ladd and Charles D. Hadley, 1978. W.W. Norton and Co; Dynamics of the Party System, James L. Sundquist, 1973, Brookings Institution).

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN THE SOUTH

The table below shows how the GOP has made gains in presidential elections in the South over the decades.

TABLE ON STATE DEFECTIONS FROM THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

1920				Tenn
1928		Fla	N.C.	Tenn	Tex	Vir
1948							Alab*		La*	Miss*	S.C.*
1952		Fla		Tenn	Tex	Vir
1956		Fla		Tenn	Tex	Vir			La
1960		Fla		Tenn		Vir	Alab*			Miss*
1964							Alab	Ga	La	Miss	S.C.
1968	Ark*	Fla	N.C.	Tenn		Vir	Alab*	Ga*	La*	Miss*	S.C.
1972	Ark	Fla	N.C.	Tenn	Tex	Vir	Alab	Ga	La	Miss	S.C.
1976						Vir
1980	Ark	Fla	N.C.	Tenn	Tex	Vir	Alab		La	Miss	S.C.
1984	Ark	Fla	N.C.	Tenn	Tex	Vir	Alab	Ga	La	Miss	S.C.
1988	Ark	Fla	N.C.	Tenn	Tex	Vir	Alab	Ga	La	Miss	S.C.
1992		Fla	N.C.		Tex	Vir	Alab			Miss	S.C.
1996			N.C.		Tex	Vir	Alab	Ga		Miss	S.C.
2000	Ark	Fla	N.C.	Tenn	Tex	Vir	Alab	Ga	La	Miss	S.C.
2004	Ark	Fla	N.C.	Tenn	Tex	Vir	Alab	Ga	La	Miss	S.C.
2008	Ark			Tenn	Tex		Alab	Ga	La	Miss	S.C.
2012	Ark		N.C.	Tenn	Tex		Alab	Ga	La	Miss	S.C.
2016	Ark	Fla	N.C.	Tenn	Tex		Alab	Ga	La	Miss	S.C.

Note: Cell entries reflect which states defected from the national Democratic party in the presidential elections listed in the first column. States not having asterisks voted Republican. The Solid Democratic South was maintained in all elections from 1880 through 1916, in 1924, and in 1932 through 1944, as every southern state voted Democratic.

Source: Shaffer, Pierce, and Kohnke (2000), and updated by the author.

* In 1948, these states voted for the Dixiecrat, States’ Rights Party.

* In 1960, an unpledged slate of electors carried Mississippi. Democrat Kennedy carried Alabama’s popular vote. All of Mississippi’s electors voted for Senator Harry Byrd of Virginia, as d 6 of Alabama’s 11 presidential electors.

* In 1968, these states voted for George C. Wallace’s American Independent Party.

Historical Evolution of Presidential Elections:

Solid Democratic South: 1880-1944. Due to Civil War, Reconstruction, agriculture and Populist, New Deal economics. All eleven states voted consistently Democratic with only two exceptions. In 1920 the nation after Woodrow Wilson and World War 1 returned to the normalcy of a GOP national majority, and Rim South Tennessee voted Republican. In 1928 when Democrats nominated a "wet", Catholic from big city, Al Smith, all Rim South states except Arkansas voted Republican for Hoover. South was so Democratic that in 1944 Mississippi was voting 94% for FDR, Alabama 81% for FDR.

Crumbling of Solid Democratic South: 1948-1968. FDR made Democrats a national party with northern Democratic congressmen having some black constituents. Also, New Deal Democratic coalition was ideologically a liberal one, which would pose a problem for the more conservative South. GOP made some gains in Rim South, Deep South remained Democratic or cast racial protest votes.
1948: Democratic civil rights platform, Dixiecrats protest, all Deep South states except Georgia back Dixiecrats, other southern states remain Democratic
1952: war hero, moderate conservative Eisenhower carries all Rim South states except Arkansas and North Carolina. Deep South returns to Democrats after Democrats choose Alabama Senator John Sparkman as VP, downplay race issues.
1956: repeat candidates, same vote pattern but Eisenhower also carries Louisiana, a Deep South state more racially moderate with a Catholic population.
1960: in close Kennedy-Nixon race, Rim South split evenly. Deep South voted Democratic, except for all of Mississippi electors and half of Alabama's who voted for conservative Democratic Senator Harry Byrd of Virginia (Miss had voted for an unpledged slate of electors).
1964: conservative GOP Goldwater had voted against 1964 Civil Rights Act, first time since Reconstruction that GOP carried all Deep South states. But Goldwater was so conservative that he lost all Rim South states to Democrat Lyndon Johnson. The all-white electorates of Mississippi and Alabama were voting 87% and 70% for a Republican. GOP made congressional gains also.
1968: in the Humphrey-Nixon-Wallace race, conservative former segregationist Alabama governor George Wallace carried Arkansas and all Deep South states except South Carolina. Moderate conservative Republican Nixon, with his "southern strategy," carried all Rim South states except Texas. Texas, home of Democratic president Lyndon Johnson, was only southern state to remain Democratic (41% for Humphrey, 40% for Nixon). Clearly, Democrats were in trouble in the South.

The New South: competitive but leaning Republican. 1972-present. United South affected by national forces, with no obvious difference between Deep and Rim South.
1972- moderate conservative Nixon carries entire South with 70% of vote against liberal Democrat McGovern. Nixon got 78% in Mississippi and 72% in Alabama, and helped elect Thad Cochran and Trent Lott as GOP Congressmen in 4th and 5th districts. First time a Republican wins the entire South.
1976- born-again southern Baptist moderate liberal Jimmy Carter carries entire South except Virginia for Democrats. But Carter won only about 40% of white vote, African-American vote won him each state he carried.
1980- conservative Republican Reagan wins every southern state except Democrat Carter's Georgia home during economic recession. Mississippi was close in each Carter election, victor won by 1%.
1984- popular Reagan wins every southern state. Gets 62% in Mississippi, 3% more than nationally.
1988- GOP Bush beats Dukakis in every southern state. Bush gets 60% in Mississippi, 7% above his national level.
1992 and 1996- with Clinton and Gore both being from South, Democrats are able to carry 4 southern states each time, but Republicans win 7. Both carry their home states of Arkansas and Tennessee in both elections. Louisiana went Democratic in both elections; Georgia in 1992, Florida in 1996. Bush got 50% of Mississippi's vote in 1992, highest in nation (only 38% nationally). Republican Dole still won Mississippi in 1996 with 50%, but Clinton rose from 41% to 44%.
2000- George W. Bush carried every southern state, though Florida's outcome was disputed.
2004- Bush was re-elected, carrying every southern state without dispute.
2008- Given the financial disaster in the nation, Obama was able to win three Rim South states of Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia, though McCain's conservatism won him the other eight southern states.
2012- Given Obama's incumbency, and the trending tossup features of Florida and Virginia, Obama was able to carry those two states, while Romney's conservatism won him the other nine southern states.
2016- Trump's attacks on political correctness and his eventual embrace of conservatism wins him every southern state except Virginia, which for the last three elections has been the most Democratic of the southern states.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL (forces affecting Americans across the nation, not just in the South)

2 Models of explaining the outcomes of U.S. Presidential elections: 1) Long term (party identification) versus short term factors (issues and candidates); the University of Michigan social-psychological model of voting behavior; majority party usually wins unless short term factors significantly benefit minority party candidate. 2) Satisfaction versus dissatisfaction; satisfaction helps incumbent party's candidate, while dissatisfaction helps the challenger.

1948
Truman (D) - 50% - New Deal domestic issues(I), Democratic majority (P).
Dewey (R) - 45%- popular governor (C), dissatisfaction (I).
2 Independents: Strom Thurmond and Henry Wallace- 2% each- (divided Dems)

1952
Eisenhower (R) - 55% - war hero (C). (Checker's Speech-Nixon)
Stevenson (D) - 45% - Korea, Communism, corruption hurt (I) . Dissatisfaction

1956
Eisenhower (R) - 57% - personal popularity (C); peace and prosperity (I). Satisfaction
Stevenson (D) - 43% - Democrat (P).

1960
Kennedy - (D) - 50% - young, charismatic (C); time to move ahead (I); Democrat (P).
Nixon - (R) - 50% - popular VP (C); knowledgeable (C). (Debates hurt Nixon)

1964
Johnson (D) - 61% - Democrat (P); centrist (I); incumbent (C).
Goldwater (R) - 39% - too conservative (I); extreme, impulsive (C). (Convention divided)
Read about Barry Goldwater's conservatism.

1968
Nixon (R) - 44% - Vietnam, unrest, crime, inflation (I). Dissatisfaction
Humphrey (D) - 43% - Democrat (P). (Divided Chicago convention)
Wallace (I) - 13% -

1972
Nixon (R) - 61% - world leader, prosperity (I); popular (C). Satisfaction
McGovern (D) - 39% - extreme liberal (I). (V.P. resigns-shock treatment)
Read about George McGovern's life (click on the Full Obituary).

1976
Carter (D) - 51% - Democrat (P); stagnant economy, pardon (I). Dissatisfaction
Ford (R) - 49% - Conservatism helps (I). (Ford debate blunder-E. Europe)

1980
Reagan (R) - 51% - Iran, Afghanistan, inflation, recession (I). Dissatisfaction
Carter (D) - 41% - poor leadership (C). (Reagan debate win-"there you go again")
Anderson, John (Indep)- 7%-

1984
Reagan (R) - 59% - peace and prosperity (I), likeable person (C). Satisfaction
Mondale (D) - 41% - Democrat (P). (1^st woman VP-Ferraro)
Read a brief biography of Geraldine Ferraro.

1988
Bush (R) - 54% - peace and prosperity (I). Negative campaigning.
Dukakis (D) - 46% - too liberal (I); uninspiring (C). (Debate-anti-death penalty, "iceman")

1992
Clinton (D) - 43% - moderate "New Democrat" (I). Dissatisfaction
Bush (R) - 38% - recession hurts (I). ("It's the economy, stupid"; Bush aloof at debate)
Perot (Indep) - 19% -

1996
Clinton (D) - 50% - Good economy, domestic (I) Satisfaction
Dole (R) - 41% - Old, uncaring (C). (Reps. keep Congress)
Perot (I) - 9% -

2000
Bush (R) - 50% - personable (C), compassionate conservative (I)
Gore (D) - 50% - arrogant (C), Clinton scandal (I), too liberal (I)

2004
Bush (R) - 51% - Decisive terrorist fighter helps Bush (I)
Kerry (D) - 48% - Flip-flopping liberal charge hurts Kerry (I)

2008
Obama (D) - 53% - Charismatic, articulate speaker (C)
McCain (R) - 46% - Financial Crisis, recession hurts (I) Dissatisfaction

2012
Obama (D) - 51% - Middle class programs (I), empathy with voter (C)
Romney (R) - 47% - Rich guy (C), blasts 47% non-taxpayers (I)

2016
Trump (R)- 46%- outsider, dissatisfaction (I); trade protectionism (I)
Clinton, Hillary (D)- 48%- basket of deplorables (racists, sexists, Islamophobic comment shows elitism (C).

Note: R denotes Republican candidate, and D denotes Democrat.
I denotes issues, C is candidate, and P is party factor.
Numbers denote percentage of popular vote received.

THE MODERN SOUTH, A REPUBLICAN BASTION

The following tables show how dominant the Republican Party has become in today's South. The first three tables show how the 1994 midterm election (two years after Clinton was elected President) ushered in majority Republican control of the Southern U.S. House, Senate, and gubernatorial delegations (bold numbers in the last column of each table denote Republican majorities). After the 2012 elections, Republicans controlled well over two-thirds of U.S. House and Senate seats from the South, and all except one governorship.

Republican gains at the state level came later. The 1994 national GOP landslide gave the GOP control of only 3 of the 22 state legislative chambers from the South, and only in South Carolina were a majority of sub gubernatorial statewide executive offices won by Republicans. Not until Bush's reelection victory in 2004 did Republicans control half of state legislative chambers. By 2012 Republicans have become dominant at the state level as well, controlling all except one state legislative chamber (the Virginia senate is tied), and majorities in 8 of the 10 state sub gubernatorial executive office (Arkansas is tied, while North Carolina remains a majority Democratic).

Table 3-3

Number of Republican U.S. Senators Elected or Serving in the Election Years Listed

YEAR RIM SOUTH STATES DEEP SOUTH STATES

	Ark	Fla	N.C.	Tenn	Tex	Vir	Alab	Ga	La	Miss	S.C.	No. of GOP Senators in South
1970		1		2	1						1	5
1972		1	1	2	1	1					1	7
1974			1	2	1	1					1	6
1976			1	1	1	1					1	5
1978			1	1	1	1				1	1	6
1980		1	2	1	1	1	1	1		1	1	10
1982		1	2	1	1	2	1	1		1	1	11
1984		1	2		1	2	1	1		1	1	10
1986			1		1	2				1	1	6
1988		1	1		1	1				2	1	7
1990		1	1		1	1				2	1	7
1992		1	2		2+	1		1		2	1	10
1994		1	2	2	2	1	1++	1		2	1	13
1996	1	1	2	2	2	1	2	1		2	1	15
1998	1	1	1	2	2	1	2	1		2	1	14
2000	1		1	2	2	2	2	*		2	1	13
2002			1	2	2	2	2	1		2	1	13
2004		1	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	2	2	18
2006		1	2	2	2	1	2	2	1	2	2	17
2008		1	1	2	2	0	2	2	1	2	2	15
2010	1	1	1	2	2	0	2	2	1	2	2	16
2012	1	1	1	2	2	0	2	2	1	2	2	16
2014	2	1	2	2	2	0	2	2	2	2	2	19
2016	2	1	2	2	2	0	2	2	2	2	2	19
2018	2	2	2	2	2	0	1	2	2	2	2	19

+ Reflects a special election in 1993.

++ Reflects a party switch after the 1994 election.

* The GOP loss of a seat is because of a death and the appointment of a Democrat.

Note: Cell entries reflect the number of Republican U.S. Senators elected in each year, plus those Republican senators continuing their terms in their non-election years.

Source: Shaffer, Pierce, and Kohnke (2000), and updated by the author.

Table 3-4

Number of Republican U.S. House Members Elected in Each Election Year Listed

YEAR RIM SOUTH STATES DEEP SOUTH STATES

	Ark	Fla	N.C.	Tenn	Tex	Vir	Alab	Ga	La	Miss	S.C.	No. of GOP Reps. in South
1970	1	3	4	4	3	6	3	2	0	0	1	27
1972	1	4	4	5	4	7	3	1	1	2	2	34
1974	1	5	2	3	3	5	3	0	2	2	1	27
1976	1	5	2	3	2	6	3	0	2	2	1	27
1978	2	3	2	3	4	6	3	1	3	2	2	31
1980	2	4	4	3	5	9	3	1	2	2	4	39
1982	2	6	2	3	6	6	2	1	2	2	3	35
1984	1	7	5	3	10	6	2	2	2	2	3	43
1986	1	7	3	3	10	5	2	2	3	1	2	39
1988	1	10	3	3	8	5	2	1	4	1	2	40
1990	1	10	4	3	8	4	2	1	4	0	2	39
1992	2	13	4	3	9	4	3	4	3	0	3	48
1994	2	15	8	5	11	5	3	7	3	1	4	64
1996	2	15	6	5	13	5	5	8	5	3	4	71
1998	2	15	7	5	13	5	5	8	5	2	4	71
2000	1	15	7	5	13	8	5	8	5	2	4	73
2002	1	18	7	4	15	8	5	8	4	2	4	76
2004	1	18	7	4	21	8	5	7	5	2	4	82
2006	1	16	6	4	19	8	5	7	5	2	4	77
2008	1	15	5	4	20	5	4	7	6	1	4	72
2010	3	19	6	7	23	8	6	8	6	3	5	94
2012	4	17	9	7	24	8	6	9	5	3	6	98
2014	4	17	10	7	25	8	6	10	5	3	6	101
2016	4	16	10	7	25	7	6	10	5	3	6	99
2018	4	14	10	7	23	4	6	9	5	3	5	90

Note: Cell entries reflect the number of Republican U.S. House members elected in each year. Bold numbers reflect U.S. House delegations from that state controlled by Republicans (ties are excluded). In 2012 there were 138 congressional districts in the South (up from 131 the election before).

Source: Shaffer, Pierce, and Kohnke (2000), and updated by the author.

Table 3-5

Republican Governors Elected or Serving in the Election Years Listed

YEAR RIM SOUTH STATES DEEP SOUTH STATES

Ark

Fla

N.C.

Tenn

Tex

Vir

Alab

Miss

S.C.

No. of

GOP gover-

nors in South

1970

Rep

1972

Rep

1974

Rep

1976

Rep

1978

Rep

1980

Rep

1982

Rep

1984

Rep

1986

Rep

1988

Rep

1990

Rep

Rep*

Rep

1992

Rep

1994

Rep

1996

Rep

1998

Rep

2000

Rep

2002

Rep

2004

Rep

2006

Rep

2008

Rep

2010

Rep

2012

Rep

2014

Rep

2016

Rep

2018

Rep

Note: Cell entries reflect which states voted elected Republican gubernatorial candidates in November of the year listed in the first column, or states that had sitting Republican governors if the year was a non-election year for them.

Source: Shaffer, Pierce, and Kohnke (2000), and updated by the author.

* In Alabama, Democratic lieutenant governor Jim Folsom became governor in 1993 after Republican Hunt’s resignation.

* In Louisiana, Democratic governor Buddy Roemer switched parties late in his term.

Table 3-6

State Legislative Chambers Controlled by the Republicans

State

19-92

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014-2016

Rim South

Arkan.

House

Senate

House

Senate

Florida

Sen. tie

Senate

House

Senate

House

Senate

House

Senate

House

Senate

House

Senate

House

Senate

House

Senate

House

Senate

House

Senate

House

Senate

North Car.

House

Hse. tie

House

Senate

House

Senate

House

Senate

Tenn.

Senate

House

Senate

House

Senate

House

Senate

House

Senate

Texas

Senate

House

Senate

House

Senate

House

Senate

House

Senate

House

Senate

House

Senate

House

Senate

Vir.

Sen. tie

Senate

House

Senate

House

Senate

House

Senate

House

Senate

House

S. tie

House

Senate

Deep South

Alab

House

Senate

House

Senate

House

Senate

Georgia

Senate

House

Senate

House

Senate

House

Senate

House

Senate

House

Senate

House

Senate

La.

House

Senate

House

Senate

Miss.

Sen tie

House

Senate

House

Senate

S.C.

House

Senate

House

Senate

House

Senate

House

Senate

House

Senate

House

Senate

House

Senate

House

Senate

No. of Chambers GOP Controls

Note: Cell entries denote the legislative chambers controlled by the GOP, reflecting the outcomes of the election years listed at the top of the columns (in Virginia, cell entries reflect election outcomes in the previous year).

* The GOP held a brief 17-16 senate majority in Tennessee after 2 members switched parties in September 1995 (Ashford and Locker 1999: 215-216).

Source: Shaffer, Pierce, and Kohnke (2000), and updated by the author.

NOTE; Table 3-6 might not print out completely. Beginning in 2014, Republicans now held control of all 22 of the 11 southern states’ bicameral legislatures. In the 2019 elections, Virginia completely flipped, as Democrats gained control of both legislative chambers; so, the number of chambers controlled by the Republicans across the entire southern region is now 20.

Table 3-7

Sub-Gubernatorial Statewide Elected Offices Controlled by the Republicans

(% of statewide offices)

State	1992	1994	1996	1998	2000	2002	2004	2006	2008	2010	2012	2014+
Rim South
Arkansas	0%	17%	17%	17%	17%	17%	17%	0%	0%	50%	50%	100%
Florida	33%	50%	50%	50%	67%	100%	100%	67%	67%	100%	100%	100%
North Carolina	0%	0%	0%	0%	11%	11%	33%	33%	22%	22%	33%	33%+
Tennessee	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*
Texas	33%	17%	20%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Virginia	0%	50%	50%	100%	100%	50%	50%	100%	100%	100%	100%	0%
Deep South
Alabama	0%	50%	67%	50%	50%	50%	50%	67%	67%	100%	100%	100%
Georgia	0%	43%	43%	29%	29%	29%	29%	57%	57%	100%	100%	100%
Louisiana	14%	14%	14%	14%	29%	29%	17%	17%	67%	83%	100%	100%
Mississippi	14%	14%	14%	14%	14%	29%	43%	57%	86%	86%	86%	86%
South Carolina	38%	75%	88%	63%	63%	75%	75%	88%	88%	100%	100%	100%
No. of States that GOP Has Majority Control	0	1	2	3	4	3	3	7	8	8	8	8

+ In 2016 the Republicans won 67% of sub-gubernatorial statewide offices in North Carolina, thereby giving them majority control of 9 states, an historic high. The percentages of all other states remained identical to those of 2014.

+In 2018, the only change from 2016 was Florida control of sub-gubernatorial seats went down to 75%.

Note: Cell entries denote the percentage of sub-gubernatorial statewide elected offices controlled by the GOP, reflecting the outcomes of the election years listed at the top of the columns (in Mississippi, Louisiana, and Virginia, cell entries reflect election outcomes in the previous year). Bold percentages reflect a majority of sub-gubernatorial state offices controlled by Republicans (ties are excluded).

Source: Shaffer, Pierce, and Kohnke (2000), and updated by the author.

* In Tennessee, no sub-gubernatorial state offices are elected statewide.

Table 15-1

Ideological Transformation of Democratic State Party Congressional Delegations

State and Year of Election	Liberal	Mod Liberal	Moderate	Mod Conser	Conser-vative	No. of Republicans
Miss, 1970	0	0	0	0	5	0
Miss, 2004	1*	0	1	0	0	2
Alab, 1970	0	0	1	1	3	3
Alab, 2004	0	1*	1	0	0	5
La, 1970	0	1	0	2	5	0
La, 2004	0	1*	0	0	0	5+
Ga, 1970	0	0	0	4	3	2+
Ga, 2004	2*	3 ^(2*)	0	0	0	7+
S.C., 1970	0	0	0	2	2	1+
S.C., 2004	1*	1	0	0	0	4
Ark, 1970	0	0	1	2	0	1
Ark, 2004	1	2	0	0	0	1
N.C., 1970	0	0	1	2	4	4
N.C., 2004	3 ^(1*)	2	1	0	0	7
Vir, 1970	0	0	0	0	4	6
Vir, 2004	2 ^(1*)	1	0	0	0	8
Tenn, 1970	0	0	4	1	0	4
Tenn, 2004	0	4 ^(1*)	1	0	0	4
Tex, 1970	1	1	8	7	3	3
Tex, 2004	5 ^(2*)	4	0	0	0	21+
Fla, 1970	0	3	0	2	4	3
Fla, 2004	5 ^(3*)	1	0	0	0	18+
11 southern states, 1970	1	5	15	23	33	27
11 southern states, 2004	20	20	4	0	0	82

Note: entries are for congress members elected in the years of 1970 and 2004.

* Indicates that member is an African American. For Georgia, 2 of the three moderate liberals are African American, one is white; both liberals are black. For North Carolina, one of the three liberals is African American. For Virginia, one of the two liberals is black. For Tennessee, one of the moderate liberals is black. For Texas, 2 of the five liberals is black. For Florida, three of the five liberals is black.

+ Omitted from the row is one newly elected Democrat in Georgia (both years), Louisiana, South Carolina, and Florida, and two newly elected Democrats from Texas (one of whom was black).

Sources: Barone, Ujifusa, and Matthews (1972); Koszczuk and Stern (2005); Nutting and Stern (2001: 267) for Cong. McKinney’s record.

Table 15-1a

Ideological Polarization of State Party Congressional Delegations (2015-16)

State and Party	Liberal	Mod Liberal	Moderate	Mod Conser	Conser-vative	No. of Congressmen
Miss, Dems	1*	0	0	0	0	1
Miss, Reps	0	0	0	0	3	3
Alab, Dems	1*	0	0	0	0	1
Alab, Reps	0	0	0	0	6	6
La, Dems	1*	0	0	0	0	1
La, Reps	0	0	0	0	5	5
Ga, Dems	4*	0	0	0	0	4
Ga, Reps	0	0	0	0	10	10
S.C., Dems	1*	0	0	0	0	1
S.C., Reps	0	0	0	0	6	6
Ark, Dems	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ark, Reps	0	0	0	0	4	4
N.C., Dems	3+	0	0	0	0	3
N.C., Reps	0	0	0	1-	9	10
Vir, Dem	3+	0	0	0	0	3
Vir, Reps	0	0	0	1-	7	8
Tenn, Dems	1+	1+	0	0	0	2
Tenn, Rep	0	0	0	0	7	7
Tex, Dem	10+	1+	0	0	0	11
Tex, Reps	0	0	0	0	25	25
Fla, Dems	9+	1+	0	0	0	10
Fla, Reps	0	0	1-	3-	13	17
11 southern states, Dems	34	3	0	0	0	37
11 southern states, Reps	0	0	1	5	95	101

Note: entries are for congress members serving in the years of 2015 and 2016. Congress members ideological scores use the liberal ADA and conservative ACU ratings for the two years; the ADA scores are subtracted from 100 so that both groups range from 0 for most liberal to 100 for most conservative. The 5 ideological categories listed at the top divide this 100-point scale into 5 equal categories (0 to 20 is liberal, 80 to 100 is conservative, for example).

* Indicates that all members in this party-ideological grouping are African American.

+ Democrats in 5 Rim South states have mixed heritages:
North Carolina has 2 black Democrats, 1 white Democratic professor.
Virginia has 1 black Democrat, 2 white Democrats.
Tennessee has 1 white liberal Jewish Democrat, and 1 white moderate liberal.
Texas has 4 black liberals, 3 Mexican liberals, and 3 white liberals; Texas also has 1 Mexican moderate liberal.
Florida has 3 black liberals, 3 Jewish liberals, and 3 white liberals; Florida also has 1 moderate liberal white, the daughter of former Governor Graham.

- Republicans in 3 Rim South states have less conservative voting records:
North Carolina has 1 moderate conservative Republican, a former Democrat whose father was a Democrat.
Virginia has 1 woman moderate conservative Republican.
Florida has 1 moderate Cuban Republican; Florida also has 2 moderate conservative Cubans, and 1 white moderate conservative Republican.

Note on Heritage by Ideology and Party:
Of 34 liberal Democrats, 18 are black, 3 are Mexican, 4 Jews, 9 whites.
Of 3 moderate liberal Democrats, 1 is Mexican, 2 are whites.
Of 1 moderate Republican, he is Cuban.
Of 5 moderate conservative Republicans, 1 is a woman, 2 are Cubans, 2 are whites.
Of 95 conservative Republicans, none are African American.

Sources: ACU website is http://conservative.org/; ADA website is https://adaction.org/

Table 15-2: Recent Ideological and Partisan Transformations of U.S. Senators

Dec-ade	Liberal	Moderate Liberal	Moderate	Moderate Conservative	Conservative
1970s		Bumpers (AR)	Hollings (SC) Morgan (NC) Sasser (TN)+ Bentsen (TX) Chiles (FL) Stone (FL)	Sparkman (A) Long (LA) Johnston (LA) Talmadge (G) Nunn (GA) Baker (TN)	Eastland (MS) Stennis (MS) Allen (AL) Thurmond (SC) McClellan (AR) Helms (NC) Byrd (VA) Scott (VA) Tower (TX)
1980s	Bum- pers (AR) San- ford (NC)+	Fowler (GA)+ Pryor (AR) Sasser (TN) Gore (TN) Graham (FL)+	Johnston (LA) Breaux (LA)* Nunn (GA) Hollings (SC) Bentsen (TX) Chiles (FL)	Stennis (MS) Heflin (AL)	Cochran (MS) Denton (AL) Thurmond (SC) Helms (NC) Trible (VA) Warner (VA) Gramm (TX)
1990s	Cleland (GA)* Pryor (AR) Bum-pers (AR) Sasser (TN)+ Graham (FL)	Breaux (LA) Hollings (SC) Robb (VA)	Heflin (AL) Johnston (LA)	Shelby (AL)+	Cochran (MS) Lott (MS) Coverdell (G) Thurmond (SC) Helms (NC) Faircloth (NC) Warner (VA) Thompson (TN) Gramm (TX) Hutchison (TX) Mack (FL)
2000s	Edwards (NC) Nelson (FL)	Landrieu (LA) Lincoln (AR) M. Pryor (AR)	Breaux (LA)	Miller (GA)	Cochran (MS) Lott (MS) Shelby (AL) Sessions (AL) Chambliss (G) Graham (SC) DeMint (SC) Dole (NC) Warner (VA) Allen (VA) Frist (TN) Alexander (TN) Hutchison (TX) Cornyn (TX) Martinez (FL)
2010s	Nelson (FL) M. Warner (VA) Kaine (VA)			Cochran (MS) Corker (TN)	Wicker (MS) Shelby (AL) Sessions (AL) Isakson (G) Perdue (G) Graham (SC) Scott (SC) Vitter (LA) Cassidy (LA) Burr (NC) Tillis (NC) Alexander (TN) Cornyn (TX) Cruz (TX) Rubio (FL) Boozman (AR) Cotton (AR)

Note: Republicans are in italics. Throughout this book, congress members and senators are divided into five ideological groupings based on their ADA and ACU/ACA scores. Both groups rate congress members from 0 to 100. We subtracted the ADA scores from 100, and then took the averages of the result and the ACU/ACA scores, and made the computations over the period of time noted above. The resulting 101-point scale is arbitrarily divided into five even groupings so that liberals score 0-20, moderates 40-60, conservatives 80-100, etc. The two senators selected from each state for each decade are generally those who served the longest during those decades, except as noted below. In the 2010s decade, the two senators chosen were those elected in 2014; scores used were ACU in 2015 and ADA in 2014, though previous years' scores were used for 5 senators who had non-typical scores in those years.

+ Fowler, Graham, Sanford, and Sasser were selected to represent these decades in order to study ideological change in Democratic senators over time. Shelby was included as a unique example of a party switcher in the face of resistance to ideological change.

* Breaux and Cleland were selected to represent these decades in order to study ideological change compared to their Democratic predecessors, Long and Nunn.

Sources: Almanac of American Politics series, and CQ’s Politics in America series. Also, see websites: http://www.adaction.org/votingrecords.htm and http://www.acuratings.org/.

Table 15-3

Republican Electoral Breakthroughs during Democratic Eras

	Governors	Senators
1961		Tex- Tower*
1964		S.C.- Thurmond*
1966	Ark- Rockefeller* Fla- Kirk*	Tenn- Baker*
1968		Fla- Gurney*
1969	Vir- Holton*
1970	Tenn- Dunn*	Tenn- Brock
1972	N.C.- Holshouser*	N.C.- Helms* Vir- Scott*
1973	Vir- Godwin
1974	S.C.- Edwards*
1976
1977	Vir- Dalton
1978	Tex- Clements* Tenn- Alexander	Miss- Cochran* Vir- Warner
1979	La- Treen*

SOUTHERN POLITICS NOTES

WEEKS ONE-TWO THE SOUTH IN A NATIONAL CONTEXT

POLITICAL PARTY ERAS

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN THE SOUTH

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL (forces affecting Americans across the nation, not just in the South)

THE MODERN SOUTH, A REPUBLICAN BASTION

WEEKS ONE-TWO
THE SOUTH IN A NATIONAL CONTEXT