RACIAL DIFFERENCES IN DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTING

Some have observed that in the 2008 Democratic presidential primaries in southern states, African Americans are voting over 90% for Obama, while whites are voting about 70% for Clinton. Some wonder whether this is because of the race of the two candidates. Another possibility is that Democratic voters are merely voting their policy preferences, and that African American Democrats tend to be more liberal in their policy views than are white Democrats. It is likely that both race and issues are exerting some effect on voters. It is difficult to measure the effect of race, but the Mississippi Poll does permit a testing of the issues effect, by showing that there are policy differences between the races within the Democratic Party. Please note that some political observers have viewed Obama as somewhat more liberal on policies than is Clinton.

To test this hypothesis, I used data from the 2006 Mississippi Poll. Potential Democratic voters were those who answered Democratic to the first party identification question below, or who responded that they were Independents, but then on the second part question admitted that they “leaned” towards the Democratic party. In this “party identification” analysis, 47% of Mississippi adults were classified as Democrats, 47% were Republicans, and 6% were pure Independents who leaned toward neither party. This results in a sample size of 253 Democrats. Of those 253 Democrats, 105 were white and 144 were black, and 4 gave other responses or refused to answer the race question. It would be more valid to further subdivide this sample of adult Democrats by their likelihood of actually voting, but the sample sizes would become so small and the sample error would become so great that I decided not to do so. Therefore, the results below are merely suggestive, rather than definitive.

Party Identification question wordings: “Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Democrat, Republican, Independent, or what? (If Independent: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?)

TABLE ON RACIAL DIFFERENCES ON PUBLIC POLICY ISSUES:

(Tables includes only Democrats)

Issue	African Americans	Whites	Number of Democrats Analyzed
Increase gov’t spending on health care	92%	78%	(244)
Increase gov’t spending on poverty programs	92%	60%	(246)
Increase gov’t spending on child day care facilities	71%	53%	(239)
Increase gov’t spending on public elementary and secondary education	93%	79%	(246)
Increase gov’t spending on public colleges and universities	80%	57%	(237)
Strongly agree that government should help reduce health care costs to people	49%	34%	(248)
Agree that gov’t should provide people jobs and a good living standard	95%	69%	(246)
Favor affirmative action (defined as preferential treatment in jobs)	64%	13%	(238)
Support gov’t improving social and economic life of minorities	96%	59%	(240)

Exact question wordings follow: “Now I'm going to ask you about some issues facing state and local government in Mississippi. As you know, most of the money government spends comes from the taxes you and others pay. For each of the following, please tell me whether you think state and local government in Mississippi should be spending more, less, or about the same as now.

What about: HEALTH CARE AND HOSPITALS.

What about: PROGRAMS FOR THE POOR.

What about: CHILD DAY CARE FACILITIES.

What about: PUBLIC GRADE SCHOOLS AND HIGH SCHOOLS.

What about: PUBLIC COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES.”

“Now I'm going to read some statements about some important issues. For each of these statements, tell me whether you strongly agree, agree, disagree, or strongly disagree.

The government ought to help people get doctors and hospital care at low cost.

The government in Washington should see to it that every person has a job and a good standard of living.

Because of past discrimination blacks should be given preference in hiring and promotion.

The government in Washington should make every effort to improve the social and economic position of blacks and other minority groups.”

Source of data: The 2006 Mississippi Poll, conducted by the Social Science Research Center at Mississippi State University. Five hundred seventy four adult Mississippi residents were interviewed from April 3-23, 2006.