SOCIAL RESEARCH REPORT SERIES 98-

THE NEW MISSISSIPPI:

POLITICAL AND PARTISAN ATTITUDES IN THE 1990s

STEPHEN D. SHAFFER

TELEMATE JACKREECE

LATARSHA HORNE

SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH CENTER

1998

Arthur G. Cosby, Director

Robert A. Altenkirch, Vice President, Research MISSISSIPPI STATE

UNIVERSITY

Malcolm A. Portera, President

The New Mississippi:

Political and Social Attitudes in the 1990s

Stephen D. Shaffer, Telemate Jackreece, and Latarsha Horne*

The decade of the 1990s marked the rise of a “new Mississippi,” as a state once derided for its racial segregation and poverty suddenly became viewed by political analysts as a national “pacesetter” (Key, 1949; Lamis, forthcoming). A leader of the education reform wave of the early 1980s with Governor William Winter’s Education Reform Act, Mississippi with Lieutenant Governor Ronnie Musgrove’s public advocacy enacted the landmark Adequate Education Program, which enhances all school districts’ education financing and helps to close the funding gap between rich and poor districts. Attorney General Mike Moore also gained national recognition by becoming the first state attorney general to successfully sue the big tobacco companies, delivering hundreds of millions of tobacco dollars to state taxpayers to be used to improve the public health. Treasurer Marshall Bennett was honored as the nation’s most outstanding state treasurer, recognizing his successful advocacy of state college pre-paid tuition programs. The nation’s capital was transformed almost overnight, as Mississippians Haley Barbour and Evelyn McPhail became the Chairman and Co-Chairman of the Republican

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* Stephen D. Shaffer, Ph.D., is Professor of Political Science and Research Fellow of the Social Science Research Center at Mississippi State University (MSU); Telemate Jackreece, Ph.D. Candidate in Public Administration in the Political Science Department at MSU; and Latarsha Horne, MSU Master of Public Policy and Administration graduate.

National Committee, and enacted aggressive and innovative programs that helped the GOP (Grand Old Party) capture control of both houses of Congress for the first time in forty years. Even the top leadership position in the U.S. Senate--Senate Majority Leader--became an all-Mississippi contest, as Senator Trent Lott won the position over another highly respected Senator, Thad Cochran. Governor Kirk Fordice became the first Mississippi Governor in this century to be re-elected, and enacted a welfare reform program that became a national leader in striving to move people from welfare to workfare.

As more and more people in other states begin to look to the Magnolia state as a source of bold leadership and creative solutions to public problems, it is important to reexamine the political values and attitudes of the average Mississippian, having acquired two more statewide public opinion polls since our last report (Shaffer, Jackreece, Bigelow, 1996). With Mississippi becoming a leader in the national political scene, a reassessment of state public opinion permits us to not only learn about the citizens of the Magnolia state, but also better understand the problems facing our entire nation.

SOCIAL CONSERVATISM AND ECONOMIC PROGRESSIVISM

With Republicans carrying Mississippi in the last five presidential elections, it is tempting to conclude that residents are a pretty conservative group, but such broad generalizations are far too simplistic (Krane and Shaffer, 1992). Indeed, when average adult Mississippians were asked in our 1996 and 1998 polls what they considered their political beliefs to be, 36% responded “moderate” or “middle of the road,” and 30% said only “somewhat conservative.” More extreme residents in the two polls (which are combined here and elsewhere in this report) included 16% labeling themselves “very conservative,” 12% “somewhat liberal,” and 6% “very liberal.” The moderate to somewhat conservative orientation of most Mississippians also masks very different views on different types of issues.

Most Mississippians are pretty conservative on social issues, even more so than people in other states (Shaffer and Horne, forthcoming). Residents clearly disagree with suggestions by former Surgeon General of the United States, Jocelyn Elders, that the nation should consider legalizing drugs as a way of reducing drug-related violence. When asked in the 1998 Mississippi Poll whether “the use of marijuana should be made legal,” only 16% of adults agreed while an overwhelming 84% disagreed. While the Congress passes laws banning child pornography, many Mississippians would prefer to restrict even adults. When asked in 1998 whether “there should be laws against the distribution of pornography to adults,” 60% of Mississippians agreed while 40% disagreed. Mississippi’s stringent anti-abortion laws appear to be quite consistent with a public that would prefer to go even farther. Though the U.S. Supreme Court legalized abortion in its 1973 Roe decision, 72% of residents in the 1998 poll disagreed with the statement that “abortion should be legal for women who are married and who don’t want any more children,” with 22% agreeing with the pro-choice statement and 6% undecided.

Turning to domestic spending programs that help improve the quality of life of residents, we see a politically more progressive people. Many forget that historically the South provided the architect of the New Deal--Franklin D. Roosevelt--his greatest electoral support, and even today Mississippians endorse federal as well as state governmental programs to help solve social problems (Ladd and Hadley, 1978: 42). When asked in the 1996 and 1998 Mississippi Polls whether “the government in Washington should see to it that every person has a job and a good standard of living,” 63% of state residents endorsed this statement promising governmental activism with 37% rejecting it. Mississippians also agreed that “the government ought to help people get doctors and hospital care at low cost,” with an overwhelming 84% endorsing this statement and only 16% disagreeing. When asked in both years whether “the government in Washington should provide fewer services, even in areas such as health and education, in order to reduce government spending,” 58% of Mississippians rejected this statement calling for smaller government, with 42% endorsing reduced federal spending. Residents’ economic populism even extends to minority race programs, as 61% agreed that “the government in Washington should make every effort to improve the social and economic position of blacks and other minority groups,” while 39% disagree with such federal activism.

Residents are especially supportive of government programs at the state and local levels that seek to improve their quality of life, as even many conservatives rejecting an overly powerful “federal” government embrace solutions offered by governments that are closer to the people. Mississippians are very supportive of programs that they view as helping large numbers of people, such as elementary, secondary, and higher education, health care, streets and highways, and the police (table 1). For instance, even when cautioned that, “most of the money government spends comes from the taxes you and others pay,” a massive 83% of Mississippians in the 1998 poll believed that “state and local government in Mississippi should be spending more” on “public grade schools and high schools” with only 3% saying less and 13% saying the same should be spent (1% had no opinions). Similarly, 70% backed more spending on health care and hospitals, 66% urged more streets and highway funding, and 64% endorsed more spending on public colleges and universities and on police forces.

Not only are these domestic spending programs popular among Mississippians, but they have become even more popular since the 1980s. In 1981, “only” 70% of Mississippians backed more spending on elementary and secondary education, compared to 83% in 1998 (table 1). In 1981, 57% backed more funding for health care and hospitals, compared to 70% in 1998. Increased public support is also evident for other programs, such as higher education, highways, police, and the poor. The state legislature has actively responded to public sentiment by enacting programs dealing with many of these important issues. In the education area alone, the legislature in the 1990s enacted the 1992 Education Enhancement Fund, the Adequate Education Program, an Eminent Scholars and College Tuition scholarship programs, and university construction projects that included enlarged and modern libraries on each campus.

Some programs are a harder sell to average Mississippians. Perhaps because of our more rural environment that has escaped some of the environmental problems of larger cities, less than a majority of residents back more spending for environmental programs. Encouraging tourism also receives less than 50% support, perhaps because some average citizens fail to fully appreciate how state government can attract tourism, and how tourism provides jobs and enhanced tax revenue. Spending money on “jail and prison facilities” has never been a popular program, but by the mid-1990s half of Mississippians were finally backing “building more prisons” to help fight crime by keeping dangerous criminals behind bars. An intriguing downturn in public support has been for industrial growth and development, an issue that in 1981 ranked with elementary and secondary education as one of the top two programs, but that today has dropped below poverty programs in public priorities, perhaps because of a booming economy that is perceived to be providing many new jobs without enhanced governmental efforts.

It should also be observed that not all Mississippians share in enthusiastic support for domestic spending programs, particularly in the social welfare arena. While 80% of self-described “liberals” in the 1996 and 1998 polls back more spending on “programs for the poor,” only 50% of “conservatives” do. Regarding socioeconomic status, 76% of the under $20,000 family income group and 74% of high school dropouts back more poverty spending, compared to only 43% of the over $40,000 income group and 42% of college graduates. While 70% of those under 35 years of age support more poverty program spending, only 47% of those over 60 favor more spending. Only 49% of whites back more spending, compared to an overwhelming 85% of African-Americans. Men are slightly less supportive than women, as 56% back more poverty spending compared to 65% of women. These same patterns of liberals, African-Americans, lower socioeconomic status, young, and women being most supportive of state government social welfare spending programs are also evident on the issue of spending for health care and hospitals. Demographic group differences are less pronounced on other issues, such as education and police forces, illustrating their widespread public support.

SOCIAL AND POLITICAL INDICATORS

Mississippians are generally pleased with the quality of life in the state, satisfied with their financial situation, and plan to remain in their local community for the next five years at least. In the 1998 poll, 30% rated the quality of life in Mississippi as excellent and 50% as good, with only 2% rating the state as poor, and 18% providing an ambivalent response of fair (table 2). Residents have become significantly more positive towards the state since the malaise days of the 1991 recession, which claimed the political lives of Governor Mabus and Lieutenant Governor Brad Dye, reflected in a polling low of 20% of residents in 1992 who rated the state’s quality of life as excellent. Mississippians also achieved a polling high level of satisfaction with their personal finances by 1996, a dramatic recovery from the public dissatisfaction of the early 1990s. In 1998, fully 41% indicated they were “pretty well satisfied” with their present financial situation, 40% were “more or less satisfied,” and only 19% were “not satisfied at all.” Such satisfaction with their overall quality of life and their financial situations contributes to people’s residential stability. In 1998, fully 82% of Mississippians indicated that they would definitely or probably be living in their community five years from now, compared to only 18% who indicated they probably or definitely would be departing from their locality.

Some residents in the 1996 and 1998 polls, such as older, long-time residents, the higher socioeconomic status, and white conservatives, are especially pleased with life in Mississippi. Those over 65 years of age are more likely than those under 35 to rate the quality of life as excellent, to be pretty well satisfied financially, and to definitely plan to live in their community over the next five years. Residents of the state for over twenty years also rate the state’s quality of life higher and plan to remain in their community, somewhat more so than relative newcomers who have lived here less than twenty years. The college educated and those with annual family incomes exceeding $40,000 are more satisfied with life in Mississippi than high school dropouts and those earning less than $20,000 annually. The higher income are also more financially satisfied than the lower income, though few educational differences in financial satisfaction emerge, perhaps because the expectations of the college educated are so much higher than the less educated. Whites are somewhat more satisfied with life in Mississippi, and more likely to wish to remain in their communities over the next five years, compared to African-Americans. Men are more financially satisfied than women, even after taking into account the higher family incomes that they tend to have compared to women. Self-identified conservatives are more financially satisfied, more residentially stable, and more satisfied with the quality of state life than are liberals, though the financial satisfaction of conservatives is due to their higher incomes compared to liberals.

The relatively greater disillusionment of young adults is a special concern for state policymakers. Only 20% of those under 35 rate the quality of life in Mississippi as excellent, compared to 40% of those over 60. Consequently, only 30% of young adults definitely plan to remain in their community over the next five years, compared to 68% of those over 60. One likely source of youth disillusionment with the state is the perception, even in the face of a growing economy, that one can obtain a better job in another state (Shaffer, 1992: 66). Highly educated young adults may be especially concerned over the availability of higher income, and more professional, job positions. And of course, some young adult disillusionment resides in the natural maturation process, whereby the young tend to believe that “the grass is greener on the other side” of the state line, and gain an appreciation for Mississippi’s more hospitable, small town virtues only after having lived in a more crime-ridden, polluted, and impersonal community in another state.

Certainly one barrier to individual advancement that has been substantially reduced is the traditional belief that “women should take care of running their homes and leave running the country up to men.” In our 1984 statewide poll, fully 41% of Mississippians agreed with this statement, but over the next ten years residents became much more supportive of women being able to achieve whatever they desired (table 3). In the 1998 poll, only 25% agreed with this sexist statement, while fully 70% disagreed with it (5% offered no opinions). Demographic groups that remained somewhat more sexist than other Mississippians were those over 60 years of age, high school dropouts, residents of the state for over twenty years, African-Americans, and self-identified conservatives. Overall, increasing public receptiveness to well qualified women in business, professional, and political life makes it only a matter of time before Mississippians will elect a woman as governor or lieutenant governor, following in the footsteps of former Lieutenant Governor Evelyn Gandy.

Since the 1950s Americans across the nation have become more cynical towards political leaders in general, fueling a trend of declining turnout and public movements to limit the terms of government officials. Mississippi is not immune to this national trend, as political disillusionment reached a high point during the recession and budget-cutting year of 1992, when 26% claimed that they rarely trusted public officials in Mississippi “to do what is right,” 57% trusted state officials only “some of the time,” and only 16% trusted officials always or most of the time. Since then, however, in the face of an economic boom and rising state revenues, public disillusionment has diminished. By 1998, only 14% of Mississippians indicated that they rarely trusted state officials to do what was right, 46% trusted them some of the time, and 36% trusted officials always or most of the time (table 4).

The state legislature’s popularity also continues to recover from the recession-induced malaise days of the early 1990s. By 1998 33% of Mississippians rated the legislature’s job performance favorably as excellent or good, and only 9% rated it unfavorably as poor, providing a level of satisfaction with the lawmaking body exceeded in only one previous poll (table 4). Indeed, public reaction to the legislature had been nearly as high in 1996, the previous historic high point exceeded only in the 1981 poll. A cautionary note is the persisting ambivalent feelings or political unawareness that many Mississippians manifest, as 45% in 1998 rated the legislature’s performance as “fair,” and 13% offered no opinions.

It is among these ambivalent and uninformed residents that the term limit battle is most likely to be waged. The issue of term limits is not a high priority issue among voters, who care more about issues that affect them on a daily basis, such as education, crime, and health care. Hence, few people spend much time thinking about the term limits issue, and how they react to it depends largely on how the issue is “framed” or explained to them. When given a simple up or down choice in the 1992 Mississippi Poll (Do you favor or oppose limiting the terms of state legislators and other state officials to two 4-year terms?), 74% favored term limits and only 26% opposed them. When asked the same question in 1994, but cautioned about the inability to reelect a popular incumbent (Do you favor or oppose limiting the terms of state legislators and other state officials to two 4-year terms, even if it means that voters cannot reelect someone who is doing a good job?), only 59% favored term limits and 41% opposed them. Public sentiment towards term limits became more negative between 1994 and 1996. In the 1996 poll, 57% opposed “limiting the terms of state legislators to two 4-year terms, even if it means that voters cannot reelect someone who is doing a good job,” and 43% favored term limits. With the public lacking much information about public affairs and lacking strong opinions on this issue, the relative success that those backing and those opposing term limits enjoy in presenting their positions in the most positive light, as well as editorializing by the state press, may determine the fate of any new term limits initiative on the ballot.

The public lack of understanding about public affairs is an important concern, especially in view of the existence of the initiative process. While most residents can recognize their Congressman’s name when listed on the ballot, they know little about them. Only 24% were able to recall their names from memory in the 1998 poll, a lower figure than in seven previous polls. Lack of public sophistication about politics is reflected in the fact that in the 1998 poll only 47% of adults were able to identify Governor Fordice’s ideological philosophy as “conservative,” as 20% said they didn’t know his ideology, 15% felt he was “moderate or middle-of-the road,” and 18% claimed that he was “liberal.” State residents showed a similar confusion over Senator Trent Lott’s ideology, as only 42% in a 1994 poll were able to identify him as “conservative,” while 25% didn’t know his ideology, 16% said he was moderate, and 17% claimed he was liberal. Some Mississippians even lack familiarity with the President of the United States, as 16% in the 1998 poll labeled Clinton as a “conservative” and 10% didn’t know his ideology, while 57% recognized him as a liberal and 17% viewed him as a moderate. Public knowledge of state officials other than the governor is even lower, reflected in constituents greeting their state legislators with the question, “So how are things up there in Washington?” The college educated are much more politically sophisticated than the less educated, as 52% in all Mississippi Polls combined are able to recall the names of their congressmen compared to 32% of high school graduates and only 23% of high school dropouts, and similar results are found in the accuracy of perceptions of public officials’ ideologies. A similar situation of limited public understanding of public affairs exists across the nation, demonstrating the wisdom of the founding fathers in establishing a “representative” government, where more knowledgeable citizens are drawn from the local community to serve in government and enact public policies that reflect the public’s interests.

Turning to Mississippians’ ratings of the governor’s job performance, we find that Kirk Fordice is poised to become the first governor since William Winter to leave office with a significantly favorable job rating (table 5). In the 1998 poll, 55% of “likely voters” rated his performance most favorably as excellent or good, 32% rated him fair, and only 9% rated his job as poor with 4% lacking opinions. Opinions are less favorable among all residents including non-voters as well as voters, but even here the governor’s job performance ratings have risen steadily from a low of 37% rating him excellent and good in 1992 to 48% in 1998. Fordice’s popularity throughout his term of office is reminiscent of his ideological soul mate, President Ronald Reagan, another conservative Republican chief executive who served two terms and presided over increased electoral gains for his party. William Winter’s even greater popularity than Fordice illustrates that future Democratic governors can seek to emulate the Republican’s success with a somewhat different policy agenda.

Even President Bill Clinton is seeing his job performance ratings rise among Mississippians, perhaps boosted by a strong economy. In 1998, 47% of Mississippians rated his job performance favorably as excellent or good, 30% rated him fair, and 22% rated his job as poor with 1% lacking opinions (table 6). While this is an improvement from Clinton’s ratings in 1994 and 1996, it is nevertheless relatively weak. It took two recessions to drive President Reagan’s and Bush’s excellent and good ratings below 50% (in 1982 and 1992), while Clinton has never been above 50%, even when including nonvoters with voters. While Democratic party officials can hope that Clinton’s ratings continue to improve among Mississippians and help his heir apparent, Vice President Al Gore, they clearly have their work cut out for them if they hope to carry the Magnolia state for the Democratic presidential nominee for the first time since 1976.

A TWO PARTY STATE

The “New Mississippi” and the New South is light years away from the Old South of V.O. Key (1949) lore, characterized by a system of racial segregation and disfranchisement protected by the Democratic party’s political monopoly. As the national Democratic party of John Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson clearly became the more liberal party, and as Republicans began nominating such conservative presidential candidates as Barry Goldwater and Ronald Reagan, the GOP made important gains in the South. By the Reagan re-election year of 1984, the number of white southerners who came to psychologically view themselves as Republicans essentially equaled the number who continued to see themselves as Democrats (Watson, 1996).

An integral part of the old Confederacy, Mississippi mirrors the regional trend towards an intensely competitive two-party system. After Reagan’s reelection as president, the Democratic advantage among adult Mississippians dropped, and a slight Republican advantage emerged among whites (table 7). Between 1990 and 1992, the Democratic advantage over the GOP fell to single digits in the state population as a whole, and a majority of white Mississippians now regarded themselves as Republicans or as Independents who leaned towards the Republican party. Republican gains especially emerged among whites who identified themselves politically as “conservative,” and the election as governor of an unapologizing GOP conservative, Kirk Fordice, may have quickened the white conservative flight from the Democratic party (Shaffer and Johnson, 1996). By 1992 the GOP had made such significant gains in the Magnolia state that for the first time Republicans now had a numerical advantage among those most likely to vote. Since 1994 the partisan situation has stabilized into a virtual tossup between the two parties, as Democrats maintain a slight five point edge among all adults and Republicans have a mere three point edge among likely voters.

As exists nationally, Democrats are strongest among African-Americans generally, and among liberal and lower socioeconomic status whites. In the 1996 and 1998 polls, 81% of African-Americans regarded themselves as Democrats, a level of loyalty that dropped only slightly among younger and higher income blacks where 78% and 74% respectively remained Democratic in the face of a modest GOP presence. Among whites, Democrats retained majorities or pluralities of support among liberals, high school dropouts, and the lower income (table 8). Republicans evidenced majority support among all other whites, except for a modest plurality among moderates. The GOP was strongest among conservatives, the college educated, and higher income whites. The staunch Democratic loyalty of African-Americans and the party’s competitiveness and strength among more moderate and economically disadvantaged whites helps the Democrats remain very competitive with the modern Republican party.

Turning to the public’s images of the two parties and their strengths, we find that a majority of both races prefer the Democrats in the areas of caring for the disadvantaged and protecting African-American interests (table 9). Both of these issues are especially important to African-Americans, as blacks tend to select a party and its candidates based on their perception of which party would provide more support for the poor and the concerns of African-Americans. Whites also are somewhat motivated to choose the party most supportive of poor people, and interestingly enough given the South’s history do not practice any racial backlash. While most white Mississippians view the Democratic party as the party best able to protect African-American interests, this Democratic party image does not generate white flight, since this racial issue is not salient to whites (Shaffer, Cotter, and Tucker, 1998).

A majority of whites and blacks tend to disagree on which party would better cope with other problems facing society, illustrating how some people of different racial groups can view the world in different ways. A majority of whites view the Republicans as better at preserving traditional values, while most African-Americans prefer the Democrats. Majorities of African-Americans also believe the Democrats to be more likely than the Republicans to support education and reduce the crime rate, while whites give Republicans the edge on these issues (table 9). It is likely that most whites think of reducing crime in more punitive terms--punishing criminals with longer jail terms and ultimately the death penalty for murder--while African-Americans tend to think in terms of prevention and rehabilitation programs, such as education and job training programs for at-risk young adults. White concern over the issues of crime and moral decay makes these two issues especially important in shaping their partisan identifications, as whites tend to select a party based on their perception of which party would better fight crime and preserve traditional values (Shaffer, Cotter, and Tucker, 1998).

The issue of education is a critical one which affects the partisan ties of people of both races. Since Democratic officials both in Mississippi and nationally have tended to be more supportive of government spending for public education than Republicans, it is understandable that a majority of African-Americans perceive the Democrats as doing the better job in supporting education. The disagreement among whites regarding the party better at supporting education is somewhat surprising, though similar results are found in other states, suggesting a national source such as some public disillusionment with the record of the Clinton administration. The GOP edge on the education issue among whites may also suggest the public popularity of some “Republican” programs such as merit pay for teachers, school choice, and school prayer. Public confusion over which party is better for education may also be a product of the success of the Mississippi state legislature in supporting education in the 1990s, as the public has probably been satisfied enough with legislative actions that they haven’t felt a need to assign blame for a perceived lack of support for education (a very different situation of an enraged public existed in 1982).

While some racial divisions remain in Mississippi politics, a similar situation exists nationally, and significant progress has occurred in the Magnolia state since the bleak days of the 1960s as people of both races realize they have more in common than they have differences (table 10). Concern over moral issues transcends race, as 69% of whites and 79% of African-Americans oppose legalized abortion, even for married women who “don’t want any more children.” Both races are more preoccupied with domestic issues than with foreign concerns with 88% of whites and 87% of blacks believing that “this country should pay more attentiion to problems at home and less attention to problems in other parts of the world.” Racial harmony also exists on critical domestic issues such as health care, where 93% of African-Americans and 79% of whites believe that “the government ought to help people get doctors and hospital care at low cost.” Despite the national call for “smaller government,” 58% of whites and 59% of African-Americans disagree that “the government in Washington should provide fewer services, even in areas such as health and education, in order to reduce government spending.”

On other issues, whites themselves are divided while African-Americans are in greater agreement. Ninety percent of blacks believe that “the government in Washington should see to it that every person has a job and a good standard of living,” while whites are split 50-50 (table 10). Ninety-two percent of African-Americans agree that “the government in Washington should make every effort to improve the social and economic position of blacks and other minority groups,” with whites again split pretty evenly for and against. On the issue of affirmative action that is worded, “because of past discrimination blacks should be given preference in hiring and promotion,” African-Americans are the more divided race backing the policy 60-40, while 89% of whites are in opposition. National polls also show most whites opposing racial quotas or preferences in jobs, with majorities of whites favoring more benign policies such as expanding the applicant pool to include qualified minorities and women, and providing job training and special educational classes to make minorities and women better qualified for the work force (Stacey, 1995). Even on the issue of the punishment for first degree murder, where majorities of whites and African-Americans prefer different options (70% of whites back the death penalty, while 69% of blacks favor life without parole), sizable minorities of both races have differing opinions (30% of whites back life without parole, while 25% of blacks favor the death penalty).

Conclusions

Mississippi has returned to the national mainstream and is today providing creative leadership in addressing societal problems, which is increasingly recognized by public officials across the nation. Creative ideas are emerging from leaders within both of the political parties, as the old one-party system has been replaced by a genuine two-party system where intense competition is producing a new generation of political leaders willing to experiment with innovative approaches to solving social problems. State leaders are responding to a public that increasingly demands more services and higher quality programs from state and local government. Emerging from the malaise days of the early 1990s, Mississippians today are more satisfied with their lives and with the performance of their elected officials in meeting the challenges of a modern state. The Magnolia state today is a pluralistic society underscored by the ideologically diverse views of the average resident, who is relatively conservative in moral values but progressive on domestic issues. And with a forward-looking African-American political leadership drawn from the state with the largest black presence in the nation, Mississippi today is an inclusive society that strives to represent all of its citizens.

Appendix A

TABLE 1

SPENDING ON STATE SERVICES

Specific Program Asked about Compared to Now,

Government Should Spend, in 1998 Poll

	More	Less	Same	Don’t Know
Public Grade Schools/high Schools	83%	3%	13%	1%
Health Care and Hospitals	70%	5%	22%	3%
Public Colleges and Universities	64%	4%	28%	4%
Streets and Highways	66%	7%	27%	0%
Police Forces	64%	7%	28%	1%
Child Day Care Facilities	63%	7%	25%	5%
Programs for the Poor	61%	10%	26%	3%
Industrial Growth/development	53%	8%	33%	6%
Environmental Programs	44%	10%	42%	4%
Encouraging Tourism	45%	15%	36%	4%

% Saying Spend More on Spending Program

	1981	1990	1992	1994	1996	1998
Public Grade Schools/high Schools	70%	81%	76%	78%	79%	83%
Health Care and Hospitals	57%	74%	73%	67%	68%	70%
Public Colleges and Universities	60%	63%	69%	64%	60%	64%
Streets and Highways	61%	70%	61%	63%	59%	66%
Police Forces	58%	66%	64%	67%	62%	64%
Child Day Care Facilities	na	60%	54%	56%	55%	63%
Programs for the Poor	48%	64%	55%	57%	57%	61%
Industrial Growth/development	72%	61%	70%	62%	57%	53%
Environmental Programs	39%	48%	48%	45%	37%	44%
Encouraging Tourism	49%	53%	48%	48%	38%	45%
Jail and Prison Facilities	37%	50%	39%	50%	50%	na

NOTE:

a. Table entries are the percentages of adult Mississippi residents backing increased spending in response to the following introductory statement: Now I’m going to ask you about some issues facing state and local government in Mississippi. As you know, most of the money government spends comes from the taxes you and others pay. For each of the following, please tell me whether you think state and local government in Mississippi should be spending more, less, or about the same as now.

b. The 1984 and 1988 results are available in Shaffer, Jackreece, and Bigelow (1996).

c. “na” indicates question not asked in that year.

TABLE 2

QUALITY OF LIFE, FINANCES, AND RESIDENTIAL MOBILITY

Rating Quality of Life 1981-1998

	1981	1986	1992	1994	1996	1998
Excellent	37%	29%	20%	27%	26%	30%
Good	40%	38%	46%	43%	50%	50%
Fair	18%	26%	25%	24%	21%	18%
Poor	5%	7%	9%	6%	3%	2%

Likelihood of Living in Your Community Five Years from now 1990-1998

	1990	1992	1994	1996	1998
Definitely Not	6%	6%	6%	5%	6%
Probably Not	12%	11%	11%	14%	12%
Probably Yes	38%	34%	35%	33%	34%
Definitely Yes	40%	47%	47%	46%	48%
Don’t Know	4%	2%	1%	2%	0%

Personal Financial Satisfaction 1984-1998

	1984	1986	1988	1990	1992	1994	1996	1998
Pretty Well Satisfied	39%	32%	38%	35%	29%	36%	43%	41%
More or Less Satisfied	41%	47%	43%	46%	41%	41%	37%	40%
Not Satisfied At All	19%	21%	18%	18%	30%	22%	20%	19%
No Opinion	1%	0%	1%	1%	0%	1%	0%	0%

QUESTION WORDINGS: Overall, how would you rate Mississippi as a place to live-- excellent, good, fair or poor? How likely do you think it will be that you will be living in your community five years from now? Definitely no, probably no, probably yes, or definitely yes? We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. So far as you and your family are concerned, would you say that you are pretty well satisfied with your present financial situation, more or less satisfied, or not satisfied at all?

TABLE 3

INCREASING SUPPORT FOR EQUAL RIGHTS FOR WOMEN

Attitude Towards Women’s Rights, 1984-1998

	1984	1986	1988	1990	1994	1996	1998	Change
Against Equal Rights	41%	39%	39%	34%	24%	28%	25%	16% Decline
For Equal Rights	53%	56%	55%	61%	70%	68%	70%	17% Gain
No Opinion	6%	5%	6%	5%	6%	4%	5%

QUESTON WORDING:

Do you agree or disagree with the following statement-- Women should take care of running their homes and leave running the country up to men? Those agreeing with this statement are classified as “Against Equal Rights” for women, and those disagreeing with the statement are classified as “For Equal Rights.”

TABLE 4

EVALUATING PUBLIC OFFICIALS AND INSTITUTIONS

How Often Trust Public Officials: 1981-1998

	1981	1990	1992	1994	1996	1998
Almost Always	8%	5%	2%	4%	5%	6%
Most of Time	39%	27%	14%	25%	26%	30%
Some of Time	42%	49%	57%	44%	47%	46%
Rarely	8%	17%	26%	25%	20%	14%
No Opinion	3%	2%	1%	1%	2%	4%

Rating of State Legislature’s Job Performance

During the administrations of:

Winter Allain Mabus Governor Kirk Fordice

	1981	1982	1984	1986	1988	1990	1992	1994	1996	1998
Excellent	3%	5%	3%	2%	4%	2%	2%	2%	5%	5%
Good	36%	24%	25%	27%	29%	23%	16%	22%	29%	28%
Fair	46%	43%	51%	41%	46%	50%	44%	45%	44%	45%
Poor	8%	15%	11%	17%	12%	16%	29%	22%	12%	9%
No Opinion	7%	13%	10%	13%	9%	9%	9%	9%	10%	13%
% Favorable*	+31	+14	+17	+12	+21	+9	-11	+2	+22	+24

* Favorability Advantage = (% Excellent + % Good) - (% Poor)

QUESTION WORDINGS:

How much of the time do you think you can trust public officials in Mississippi to do what is right-- almost always, most of the time, only some of the time, or rarely? I’m going to ask you to rate the job performance of a few political figures and institutions. Rate each of them as excellent, good, fair, or poor. What about the Mississippi state legislature?

TABLE 5

MISSISSIPPIANS RATE THE STATE’S GOVERNORS

Rating Governor’s Job Performance

(Entire Population)

Winter Allain Mabus Governor Kirk Fordice

	1981	1982	1984	1986	1988	1990	1992	1994	1996	1998
Excellent	10%	10%	5%	8%	12%	12%	6%	13%	15%	10%
Good	45%	42%	34%	32%	39%	32%	31%	33%	31%	38%
Fair	35%	34%	44%	43%	29%	37%	27%	37%	32%	35%
Poor	5%	7%	6%	11%	4%	13%	22%	13%	15%	10%
No Opinion	5%	7%	11%	6%	16%	6%	14%	4%	7%	7%
% Most Favorable*	58%	56%	44%	43%	61%	47%	43%	48%	49%	52%

* % MOST FAVORABLE = % of those having opinions rating Governor as excellent or good.

Rating Governor’s Job Performance

(Among Likely Voters Alone)

Winter Allain Mabus Governor Kirk Fordice

	1981	1982	1984	1986	1988	1990	1992	1994	1996	1998
Excellent	12%	15%	6%	10%	14%	17%	8%	19%	17%	11%
Good	46%	43%	33%	39%	39%	31%	36%	36%	34%	44%
Fair	34%	32%	44%	40%	29%	31%	21%	32%	29%	32%
Poor	6%	8%	9%	11%	4%	20%	22%	12%	16%	9%
No Opinion	2%	2%	8%	0%	14%	1%	13%	1%	4%	4%
% Most Favorable*	59%	59%	42%	49%	62%	48%	51%	56%	53%	57%

* % MOST FAVORABLE = % of those having opinions rating Governor as excellent or good.

NOTE: Likely Voters are derived from an additive scale combining questions on reported likelihood of voting, campaign interest, and political knowledge.

TABLE 6

MISSISSIPPIANS RATE AMERICAN PRESIDENTS

Rating President’s Job Performance

(Entire Population)

President Ronald Reagan Bush Bill Clinton

	1981	1982	1984	1986	1988	1990	1992	1994	1996	1998
Excellent	23%	9%	21%	21%	17%	19%	10%	6%	11%	15%
Good	31%	29%	32%	34%	37%	40%	38%	25%	26%	32%
Fair	27%	33%	22%	26%	25%	31%	35%	38%	33%	30%
Poor	15%	25%	24%	17%	18%	8%	15%	27%	28%	22%
No Opinion	4%	4%	1%	2%	3%	2%	2%	4%	2%	1%
% Most Favorable*	56%	40%	54%	56%	56%	60%	49%	32%	38%	47%

* % MOST FAVORABLE = % of those having opinions rating President as excellent or good.

Rating President’s Job Performance

(Among Likely Voters Alone)

President Ronald Reagan Bush Bill Clinton

	1981	1982	1984	1986	1988	1990	1992	1994	1996	1998
Excellent	30%	16%	26%	27%	19%	22%	14%	8%	12%	12%
Good	33%	31%	30%	32%	40%	44%	37%	22%	28%	32%
Fair	21%	29%	17%	30%	23%	28%	29%	33%	27%	29%
Poor	15%	22%	27%	11%	18%	6%	18%	33%	31%	24%
No Opinion	1%	2%	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%	4%	2%	3%
% Most Favorable*	64%	48%	56%	59%	59%	66%	52%	31%	41%	45%

* % MOST FAVORABLE = % of those having opinions rating President as excellent or good.

NOTE: Likely Voters are derived from an additive scale combining questions on reported likelihood of voting, campaign interest, and political knowledge.

TABLE 7

A TWO-PARTY STATE TODAY

Entire Adult Population

	1981	1982	1984	1986	1988	1990	1992	1994	1996	1998
Democrats	61%	61%	56%	54%	53%	56%	47%	47%	48%	47%
Independents	7%	14%	15%	10%	13%	8%	13%	12%	10%	11%
Republicans	32%	25%	29%	36%	34%	36%	40%	41%	42%	42%
Party Advantage	29D	36D	27D	18D	19D	20D	7D	6D	6D	5D

White Adult Population

	1981	1982	1984	1986	1988	1990	1992	1994	1996	1998
Democrats	46%	51%	45%	42%	42%	44%	33%	29%	31%	31%
Independents	12%	17%	17%	11%	14%	10%	15%	14%	11%	12%
Republicans	42%	32%	38%	47%	44%	46%	52%	57%	58%	57%
Party Advantage	4D	19D	7D	5R	2R	2R	19R	28R	27R	26R

Likely Voters Alone

	1981	1982	1984	1986	1988	1990	1992	1994	1996	1998
Democrats	61%	59%	53%	56%	53%	47%	37%	43%	44%	43%
Independents	8%	12%	14%	6%	7%	6%	11%	8%	10%	11%
Republicans	31%	29%	33%	38%	40%	47%	52%	49%	46%	46%
Party Advantage	30D	30D	20D	18D	13D	0	15R	6R	2R	3R

NOTE: Values in the last row of each table indicate Democratic or Republican advantage in each year, and is the difference in percentages between the two parties.

QUESTION WORDING:

Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Democrat, Republican, Independent, or what? (Independents were asked: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Democratic party or to the Republican party? Those leaning towards either party were considered identifiers of that party.)

TABLE 8

PARTY IDENTIFICATION OF WHITE MISSISSIPPIANS (1996-1998)

	Democrats	Independents	Republicans
Liberal	50%	12%	38%
Moderate	38%	18%	44%
Conservative	19%	8%	73%
20 or Fewer Years Lived in Mississippi	26%	13%	61%
20 or More Years Lived in Mississippi	34%	11%	55%
Age 18-35	24%	7%	69%
Age 36-60	33%	16%	51%
Age 61-98	39%	9%	52%
High School Dropout	48%	16%	36%
High School Graduate	34%	10%	56%
Some College Education	24%	14%	62%
College Educated	22%	5%	73%
Under $20,000 Family Income	51%	13%	36%
$20,000-$40,000 Income	30%	9%	61%
Over $40,000 Family Income	22%	8%	70%
Male	28%	10%	62%
Female	35%	13%	52%
All Whites	31%	12%	57%
African-Americans	81%	9%	10%

NOTE: Percentages total 100% across each row. Few demographic differences exist among African-Americans: among the 61-98 age group, 95% are Democrats and 3% Republicans, while the 18-35 age group is 78% Democratic and 15% Republican; among the under $20,000 income, 81% are Democrats and 11% Republican, while the over $40,000 group is 74% Democratic and 16% Republican.

TABLE 9

PARTY IMAGES OF MISSISSIPPIANS

--Among Whites--

Issue and Year	Democratic	Republican	Both the Same
Protecting African-American interests (1996)	59%	27%	14%
Protecting African-American interests (1998)	65%	16%	19%
Caring for Have Nots of society (1996)	55%	32%	13%
Caring for Have Nots of society (1998)	58%	27%	15%
Reducing Crime rate (1996)	21%	58%	21%
Reducing Crime rate (1998)	18%	48%	34%
Preserving Traditional Values (1996)	22%	61%	17%
Preserving Traditional Values (1998)	21%	61%	18%
Supporting Education (1996)	31%	52%	17%
Supporting Education (1998)	34%	49%	17%
Protecting interests of People Like You (1996)	27%	59%	14%
Protecting interests of People Like You (1998)	27%	48%	25%

--Among African-Americans--

Issue and Year	Democratic	Republican	Both the Same
Protecting African-American interests (1996)	83%	5%	12%
Protecting African-American interests (1998)	75%	10%	15%
Caring for Have Nots of society (1996)	86%	9%	5%
Caring for Have Nots of society (1998)	71%	11%	18%
Reducing Crime rate (1996)	55%	34%	11%
Reducing Crime rate (1998)	53%	21%	26%
Preserving Traditional Values (1996)	58%	30%	12%
Preserving Traditional Values (1998)	53%	28%	19%
Supporting Education (1996)	78%	12%	10%
Supporting Education (1998)	66%	15%	19%
Protecting interests of People Like You (1996)	84%	8%	8%
Protecting interests of People Like You (1998)	73%	13%	14%

NOTE: Percentages total 100% across each row.

QUESTION WORDING:

Which of the two parties--Democratic or Republican--do you think would do the best job in the following areas? Caring for the have-nots of society. Supporting education. Reducing the crime rate. Preserving traditional values. Protecting the interests of African-Americans (blacks). Protecting the interests of people like you. See Shaffer, Cotter, and Tucker (1998) for more information.

TABLE 10

RACE DIFFERENCES ON PUBLIC ISSUES IN 1996 AND 1998 POLLS

	WHITES	AFRICAN-AMERICANS
Outlaw Abortion (asked only in 1998)	69%	79%
Permit Abortion (asked only in 1998)	23	18
Undecided about Abortion (asked only in 1998)	8	3
For Isolationism	88	87
Against Isolationism	12	13
For Gov’t Providing Cheap Health Care	79	93
Against Gov’t Providing Cheap Health Care	21	7
Federal Gov’t Should Cut Spending, even in Health and Education Areas	42	41
Against Federal Cuts in Health-Education	58	59
Federal Gov’t Should Provide Everyone Jobs and Good Living Standard	50	90
Federal Gov’t Should Stay Out of Jobs-Living Standards Issue	50	10
Federal Gov’t Should Make Every Effort to Improve Blacks’ Social-Economic Position	46	92
Federal Gov’t Should Stay Out of Blacks’ Socio-Economics Area	54	8
For Black Preferences in Hiring and Promotion, due to Past Discrimination	11	60
Against Black Preferences in Hiring/Promotion	89	40
Death Penalty for 1^st Degree Murder (1996 item)	70	25
Life without Parole for Murder (1996 item)	30	69
Jail Term Shorter than Life for Murder (1996)	0	6

Appendix B

These telephone surveys were conducted by the Survey Research Unit of the Social Science Research Center at Mississippi State University with facilities that permit simultaneous use of ten telephones. The SSRC is directed by Dr. Arthur Cosby, and the Survey Research Unit is directed by Dr. Wolfgang Frese. Random methods were employed to select households telephone numbers, as well as one adult to interview in each household. No substitutions were permitted, and up to ten callbacks were made. Calls were made from 5:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m. on weeknights, and from 11:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. on weekends. The SSRC’s sophisticated Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing System (CATI) was used to collect the data.

The 1998 statewide poll interviewed 608 adult Mississippi residents from April 14 to April 26, 1998. The results were adjusted by demographic characteristics such as education, sex, and race to ensure that all social groups were adequately represented in the survey, adjusting for the fact that not all households own telephones. With 608 people surveyed, the sample error is plus or minus 4%, which means that if every Mississippi resident had been interviewed, the results could differ from those reported here by as much as 4%. The response rate was 64%. The Director of the survey was Dr. Stephen D. Shaffer in the MSU Political Science Department. The survey was conducted by MSU political science undergraduate majors, supervised by the department’s graduate students. Sociologist Dr. Wolfgang Frese was of great assistance in creating the computer-generated questionnaire and dataset. Most of the 1998 results cited in this paper (designated by such terms as “Entire Adult Population” or absent any designation) are based on this sample of 608 Mississippians.

A subsample of 302 of these Mississippians in 1998 are considered “likely voters” because of their political knowledge, campaign interest, and expressed likelihood of voting. This subsample was also weighted by demographic characteristics so that all social groups were represented in rough proportion to their presence in the voting electorate. The sample error with 302 potential voters is plus or minus 6%, which means that if all likely voters in the state had been surveyed the results could have differed from these results by 6% in either direction.

Previous polls were conducted in the following years with the listed sample sizes and sample errors:

Year	Sample Size	Sample Error	Interview Period
1981	616	5%	Oct. 19-Nov. 19
1982	894	4%	Sept. 7-18
1984	610	5%	Apr. 15-29
1986	611	5%	Feb. 17-26
1988	632	5%	Apr. 11-24
1990	601	4%	Mar. 26-Apr. 3
1992	558	4%	Apr. 1-14
1994	620	4%	Apr. 4-13
1996	601	4%	Apr. 9-20

Demographics of 1998 Survey

AGE	18 to 29	23%
	30 to 45	36%
	46 to 59	20%
	60 and up	21%
EDUCATION	High school dropout	25%
	High school graduate	27%
	Some college	32%
	College graduate	16%
INCOME	$20,000 or less	27%
	$20,000 to 40,000	30%
	$40,000 to 60,000	16%
	$60,000 or above	14%
	Refused to Say	13%
RACE	White	68%
	Black	32%
SEX	Male	46%
	Female	54%
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT	First	24%
	Second	15%
	Third	22%
	Fourth	18%
	Fifth	21%

References

1. Key, V.O. 1949. Southern Politics in State and Nation. Vintage, Division of Random House; New York.

2. Krane, Dale and Stephen D. Shaffer. 1992. Mississippi Government and Politics: Modernizers and Traditionalists. University of Nebraska Press; Lincoln, NE.

3. Ladd, Everett C. and Charles D. Hadley. 1978. Transformations of the American Party System: Political Coalitions from the New Deal to the 1970s. W.W. Norton and Company; New York.

4. Lamis, Alexander P. Forthcoming. Southern Politics in the 1990s. Louisiana State University Press: Baton Rouge.

5. Shaffer, Stephen D. 1992. “Perceptions and Attitudes of Delta Residents,” in A Social and Economic Portrait of the Mississippi Delta, edited by Arthur G. Cosby, Mitchell W. Brackin, T. David Mason, and Eunine R. McCulloch. Social Science Research Center, Mississippi State University; Mississippi State. Copy available from Website: http://www.ssrc.msstate.edu/Publications/Delta_Book.pdf

6. Shaffer, Stephen D.; Patrick R. Cotter; and Ronnie B. Tucker. 1998. “Racism or Conservatism: Explaining Rising Republicanism in the Deep South,” presented at the 1998 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston, MA.

7. Shaffer, Stephen D. and Latarsha Horne. Forthcoming. “The End of Regionalism? Revisiting V.O. Key’s Delta Versus Hills Sectionalism in Mississippi Politics,” American Review of Politics.

8. Shaffer, Stephen D.; Telemate Jackreece; and Nancy Bigelow. 1996. Stability and Change in Mississippians’ Political and Partisan Views: Insights from 14 Years of Opinion Polling. Social Science Research Center, Mississippi State University; Mississippi State. Copy available from Website: http://www.ssrc.msstate.edu/Publications/srrs96-1.pdf

9. Shaffer, Stephen D. and Monica Johnson. 1996. “Return of the Solid South? Exploring Partisan Realignment in Mississippi,” Southeastern Political Review, vol. 24, no. 4, December, pp. 757-776.

10. Stacey, Julie. 1995. “Affirmative action: The public reaction,” USA Today, March 24, 1995, p. 3A.

11. Watson, Stanley J. 1996. “Race and Realignment Reconsidered: Issue Evolution in the South Since 1972,” The American Review of Politics, vol. 17, Summer, pp. 145-170.