BUSH HAS WIDE LEAD, MSU POLL SHOWS

If the presidential election were held in mid-September, Republican candidate George Bush would win Mississippi by a landslide over Democratic candidate Michael Dukakis, according to a statewide public opinion poll conducted by Mississippi State University. Vice President Bush would receive about 61% of the vote, while Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis would receive 39%.

Six hundred and ninety two likely voters in Mississippi were polled by telephone from August 29 to September 17 by MSU's Social Science Research Center, and asked: "If the presidential election were held today, whom would you vote for? Michael Dukakis and Lloyd Bentsen, the Democratic ticket? Or George Bush and Dan Quayle, the Republican ticket?" The complete results were: 54.6% for Bush; 3% undecided but leaning toward Bush; 33.3% for Dukakis; 3% undecided but leaning toward Dukakis; and 6% completely undecided. With a sample size of 692, the sample error is 4.5%, meaning that if the entire population had been polled, the results could vary from these by 4.5% in either direction. The telephone survey was weighted by factors like race and education to ensure that all demographic groups were adequately represented in the sample.

"An important factor helping Bush is his association with President Ronald Reagan, who remains very popular in Mississippi," commented Associate Professor of Political Science and survey director Stephen D. Shaffer. "Sixty-five percent of likely voters in the state rate Reagan's job performance favorably as either excellent or good, while only 34% rate it as only fair or poor (1% have no opinions). Bush is supported by 91% of those rating Reagan's performance as excellent, and 73% of those rating the President as good. Dukakis is stronger among the smaller groups who rate the President less favorably, as Dukakis is supported by 80% of those rating Reagan's performance as poor and 76% of those rating it as fair."

"Bush is also a more popular candidate compared to Dukakis," said Shaffer. "Fifty-three percent of voters rated Bush's job performance favorably as excellent or good, compared to only 34% who rated Dukakis' job performance as excellent or good."

"The Bush campaign is also pursuing a wise strategy of stressing ideological concerns and attempting to paint their opponent as a liberal," continued Shaffer. "Only 19% of likely voters in our sample called themselves liberals or moderate liberals, while 52% called themselves conservatives or moderate conservatives (29% were moderates or refused to label themselves). Therefore, most Mississippi voters are ideologically closer to Bush's moderate conservative philosophy than they are to Dukakis' moderate liberal philosophy." "Despite Bush's overall popularity, Mississippians are still divided along socioeconomic status and partisan lines," concluded Shaffer. Bush was supported by 94% of Republicans, 78% of conservatives, 75% of whites, 69% of the over $20,000 annual family income group, and 67% of those with at least some college education. Dukakis, on the other hand, was favored by 72% of Democrats, 76% of blacks, 62% of the under $10,000 annual family income group, 58% of liberals, and 56% of high school dropouts. The poll also found Bush favored by 62% of men and 54% of women, and leading in all Congressional districts (though by only a 50-48 margin in the 2nd district).

Shaffer cautioned that the poll provides only a snapshot of where the race stands as of mid-September. "A lot can happen in the final weeks of a campaign to significantly change such results," Shaffer added.

LOTT HAS SIGNIFICANT LEAD, MSU POLL SAYS

If the election for the U.S. Senate were held in mid-September, Republican candidate Trent Lott would be elected in a landslide over Democratic candidate Wayne Dowdy, according to a statewide public opinion poll conducted by Mississippi State University. House Republican Whip and 5th district Congressman Lott would receive about 61% of the vote, while 4th district Congressman Wayne Dowdy would receive 39% of the vote.

Six hundred and ninety two likely voters were polled by telephone from August 29 to September 17 by MSU's Social Science Research Center, and asked: "If the election for the United States Senate were held today, whom would you vote for: Wayne Dowdy the Democrat, or Trent Lott the Republican?" The complete results were: 55.7% for Lott; 1.6% undecided but leaning toward Lott; 35.1% for Dowdy; 0.9% undecided, but leaning toward Dowdy; and 6.7% completely undecided. With a sample size of 692, the sample error is 4.5%, meaning that if the entire population had been polled, the results could vary from these by 4.5% in either direction. The telephone survey was weighted by factors like race and education to ensure that all demographic groups were adequately represented in the sample. "One factor helping Lott is the presidential contest and Bush's popularity in Mississippi," said MSU Associate Professor of Political Science and survey director Stephen D. Shaffer. Eighty-three percent of Bush supporters plan to support Lott, while only 13% favor Dowdy and 4% are undecided. While 74% of Dukakis backers favor Dowdy (19% support Lott, and 7% are undecided), the greater number of Bush compared to Dukakis backers helps the Republican senatorial candidate. "Lott also has been successful at making inroads into some important groups," added Shaffer. "Sixty-nine percent of Independents favor Lott, while only 21% favor Dowdy and 10% are undecided. Republican party identifiers are more loyal to their party's candidate than are Democrats, as 93% of Republicans favor Lott while 68% of Democrats support Dowdy." Shaffer continued, "Racial differences are quite evident, as Lott is favored by 70% of whites and Dowdy is supported by 66% of blacks, but in this poll Lott is running stronger among blacks than many political observers expected, as 25% of blacks favor his candidacy (9% are still undecided)."

"Another important factor, I believe, is that Lott has been better able to get his message across to the voters by using numerous and effective television commercials that stress non-ideological concerns like constituency service," said Shaffer.

"Indeed, 60% of likely voters rate Trent Lott's job performance in Congress favorably as either excellent or good, a figure only 5% below the rating of popular President Ronald Reagan. A more modest 42% of voters in our sample gave Dowdy similar ratings."

"Yet many voters still aren't aware of the candidates' voting records on important issues," added Shaffer. "While Lott's voting record is clearly conservative, only 35% of voters think of him that way. Fourteen percent think of Lott as a liberal or moderate liberal, 11% label him a moderate, 17% call him a moderate conservative, and 23% say they just don't know." "There is similar confusion over Dowdy's record," continued Shaffer. "While Dowdy's voting record is clearly moderate, only 14% of voters think of him that way. Twenty-four percent think of him as a liberal, 10% as a conservative, 13% as a moderate liberal, 8% as a moderate conservative, and 31% say they just don't know." "Voters themselves are very split in their own political philosophies, as 19% call themselves liberal or moderate liberal, 29% are moderates or refuse to label themselves, 23% are moderate conservatives, and 29% are conservatives. Therefore, if ideological issues were more important in this race and more important to voters, the contest would be a lot closer," concluded Shaffer.

"Another key factor is turnout," said Shaffer. "Lott is strongest among groups that are most likely to vote, such as those

with some college education and with annual family incomes of $20,000 or more, where 67% favor Lott. Fifty-nine percent of the under $10,000 income group, 53% of high school dropouts, and 48% of the $10,000-$20,000 income group favor Dowdy. In elections generally, the lower socioeconomic status groups are less likely to vote, so the Democrats would be advised to make a major effort to register and get these groups to the polls."

MISSISSIPPI VOTERS FAVOR UNIT SYSTEM, MSU POLL SAYS

If the election were held today, the unit system referendum would receive widespread support across the state, according to a statewide public opinion poll conducted by Mississippi State University. The unit system referendum would be supported by about 66% of voters with 17.5% firmly opposed to it and 16.5% undecided.

Six hundred and ninety two likely voters in Mississippi were polled by telephone from August 29 to September 17 by MSU's Social Science Research Center, and asked: "What is your opinion on the following referendum issue which will be on the ballot in November: Do you want to require the county to operate under the countywide system of road administration? Yes or no." Sixty-six percent of likely voters said yes, while 17.5% said no, and 16.5% had no opinions. With a sample size of 692, the sample error is 4.5%, meaning that if the entire population had been polled, the results could vary from these by 4.5% in either direction. The telephone survey was weighted by factors like race and education to ensure that all demographic groups were adequately represented in the sample.

"There was widespread support for the unit system throughout the state," according to MSU Associate Professor of Political Science and survey director Stephen D. Shaffer. "Majorities of all demographic groups supported it. The unit system was supported by 73% of liberals and 69% of Democrats, but also by 67% of conservatives and 65% of Republicans." "It is also interesting that while 68% of urban residents supported it, so too did 64% of rural residents," Shaffer said. "More modest support for the unit system was found among groups that were less knowledgeable about this referendum issue, such as newcomers to the state and those over 60 years of age, but even there 56% of newcomers and 52% of the elderly supported it." Support for the unit system varied from 70% in the second and third congressional districts to 57% in the first district; 68% of voters in the fourth district and 64% in the fifth favored it.

"A major reason that so many people support the unit system, I believe, is that they view it as a good government measure that will make county government more efficient and ultimately save tax dollars," concluded Shaffer. "Support for the unit system has grown since our April survey. I believe more and more voters are seeing it as a way of helping the state to move ahead in a coordinated fashion in attracting new industry," said Shaffer.

"Another reason for the unit system's popularity is the widespread popularity of Governor Mabus, who championed the unit system," said Shaffer. "Sixty-four percent of voters having opinions rated Mabus' job performance favorably as either excellent or good, a margin higher than either of his two predecessors," continued Shaffer. "Seventy-eight percent of those rating Mabus' performance as excellent supported the unit system, as well as 70% of those rating him as good and 67% of those rating him fair. The margin of support for the unit system was closer among those rating Mabus' performance as poor, as 46% favored the referendum and 39% opposed it (15% were undecided), but only 10% of voters rated the Governor's performance as poor."

"Another reason for public support for the unit system is some disillusionment with public officials, especially in the wake of the reported convictions of a number of Mississippi county officials for alleged corruption," said Shaffer. "Fifty-four percent of state voters felt that they could trust public officials in the state to do what is right only some of the time or rarely. Support for the unit system included 70% of those rarely trusting officials, 66% of those trusting them only some of the time, and 69% of those trusting them most of the time. The unit system was supported by only 50% of those voters who felt that they could almost always trust public officials to do what was right (21% opposed the referendum, and 29% were undecided), but only 8% of voters felt that they could almost always trust officials."

Shaffer cautioned that the poll provides only a snapshot of public attitudes toward the unit system referendum as of mid-September. "A lot can happen in the weeks before an election to significantly change the results."

NON-PUBLIC RELEASE: GOVERNMENT REORGANIZATION

Q. 48. State government in Mississippi currently has 135 separate state agencies, some of which have overlapping and duplicating functions. Are you in favor of combining state agencies and functions to reduce the number of agencies to 15, or keeping the system of government as it is today?

Reduce to 15 agencies ............................... = 34.6%

Reduce some, but not to only l5 (volunteered category) = 31.0%

Keep as is (135 agencies) ............................ = 25.0%

Any Other opinion (volunteered category) ............. = 1.6%

No opinion ........................................... = 7.8%

_______

100.0%

Q. 49. Do you favor keeping the state Community and Junior Colleges Board as a separate body, or merging it with the state College Board?

Keep it as a separate body ................. = 54.1%

Merge it with college board ................ = 28.0%

Any Other opinion (volunteered category) ... = 0.2%

No opinion ................................. = 17.7%

_________

100.0%

Q. 50. Do you think that the Governor should have more influence over the decisions of the state Highway Commission, or that he has enough influence already?

Governor should have more influence ........ = 39.9%

He has enough influence already ............ = 47.3%

Any Other opinion (volunteered category) ... = 1.1%

No opinion ................................. = 11.7%

________

100.0%

METHODOLOGY: This telephone survey was conducted by the Survey Research Unit of the Social Science Research Center at Mississippi State University. Six hundred ninety-two likely voters across the state of Mississippi were interviewed from August 29 to September 17, 1988. The sample error with 692 voters is 4.5%. Two stage, random digit dialing technique was used to select the households, and a random method was employed in sampling each individual within the household. Data were weighted by number of adults in the household, number of telephone numbers, education, and race to achieve a representative sample measured by census data. Inquiries can be made to Dr. Stephen D. Shaffer, MSU Political Science Department, at 601-325-2711.