POLL: PUBLIC BACKS TAX HIKE FOR EDUCATION

Most Mississippians prefer to raise taxes rather than see education spending cut, according to a statewide public opinion poll conducted by researchers at Mississippi State University. When informed that "state government faces financial problems" and given the choice between raising taxes or "reducing spending on public elementary, secondary, and higher education," adult Mississippians by a two-to-one margin backed a tax increase. Significant majorities of residents backed two tax hike proposals-- an increase in the state sales tax from 6 cents to 7 cents on the dollar, and adding a 6 percent bracket on the state income tax for all taxable income above $15,000 per year. Sixty-four percent of adults backed the sales tax hike with 33% opposed and 3% offering no opinions. Sixty-one percent of residents favored an income tax increase with 30% oppposed and 9% having no opinions. The poll did not examine other proposed tax increases, such as eliminating exemptions from the sales tax.

Majorities of all groups of Mississippians favored a tax hike instead of reducing education funding. "Raising the sales tax especially had broad-based support," commented survey director and Professor of Political Science at Mississippi State University, Steve Shaffer. "Even 65% of Republicans, 62% of self-identified conservatives, and 62% of those rating Governor Fordice's job performance as excellent or good favored increasing the sales tax, as did 64% of Democrats, 66% of liberals, and 67% of those who rated Fordice less favorably," said Shaffer. A boost in the sales tax was supported across the state with support ranging from a high of 70% in the 5th congressional district to a low of 58% in the 2nd district.

"The sales tax has often been criticized by progressive reformers as a regressive tax, since poor people tend to pay a higher percentage of their income on items subject to the tax than do rich people," added Shaffer. "Therefore, bare majorities of high school dropouts (51%), blacks (54%), and young adults (55%) favored raising the sales tax, while lopsided majorities of the college educated (70%), whites (69%), and the elderly (64%) supported it," continued Shaffer. "Nevertheless, the broad-based support for the sales tax increase is reflected in the sizable 61% of those with annual family incomes under $10,000 who favored the tax hike, while support was even higher among other income groups reaching a high of 73% for those making $30,000 to $40,000 a year," concluded Shaffer.

Raising the income tax also enjoyed widespread support among Mississippi residents with majorities of all but one social group preferring it to any reduction in education spending. "An income tax increase was favored by 60% of whites and 64% of blacks, and geographically support for the tax hike ranged from a low of 57% in the 3rd congressional district to a high of 65% in the 2nd district," continued Shaffer. "However, the level of support for an increased income tax varied by political attitudes," said Shaffer. "Only 54% of Republicans and 53% of conservatives and Fordice supporters favored the income tax increase, compared to 66% of Democrats, 73% of liberals, and 67% of those less supportive of Fordice," continued Shaffer. "Especially interesting is that only 46% of those with annual family incomes exceeding $40,000 backed the income tax hike, while support ranged from 62% to 73% among other income groups," added Shaffer. "Since higher income people are more politically vocal and more likely to serve in government, an income tax hike for education may encounter a more difficult time in the legislature than a sales tax increase," concluded Shaffer.

"The key point is that Mississippians do not want any reduction in spending on elementary, secondary, and higher education, and they're willing to pay higher taxes if necessary," commented Shaffer. "Education is the number one priority of state voters," said Shaffer. "When asked in the abstract whether state government should spend more, less, or the same on eleven different programs, elementary, secondary, and higher education were rated tops by Mississippians in the poll who were most likely to vote in upcoming elections," continued Shaffer. "For example, 79% of likely voters said more should be spent on public grade schools and high schools, 16% said spend the same as is currently being spent, and only 4% said reduce spending (1% had no opinion)," said Shaffer. In addition to elementary, secondary, and higher education, other high priority programs among average Mississippians were health care and attracting industry.

"The popularity of education is reflected in how people respond to a general question about whether to raise taxes or cut state programs when education is not specifically mentioned," continued Shaffer. When cautioned that the state faces a financial crisis and that the legislature would have to "raise taxes or cut spending on state programs," only 34% of residents favored the tax hike and 49% preferred cutting spending, with 11% volunteering the opinion that some of both should be done and 6% having no opinions. When asked a similar question that asked people to choose between a tax increase or reducing spending on elementary, secondary, and higher education, support for a tax hike rose to a whopping 74% with only 13% favoring a cut in education, 8% saying that some of both should be done and 5% having no opinions.

This telephone poll of 558 adult Mississippi residents was conducted April 1-13, 1992 by the Survey Research Unit of the Social Science Research Center at Mississippi State University. Since not everyone owns a telephone, the results were adjusted by demographic characteristics such as education, race, and gender, so that all groups would be represented in the sample in proportion to their presence in the state population. A sample size of 558 yields an approximate sample error of plus or minus 4%, which means that if the entire population had been interviewed, the results could differ from the above by as much as 4%.

RAISING TAXES VERSUS CUTTING EDUCATION

Q70. Currently, state government faces financial problems and the legislature will have to raise taxes or reduce spending on public elementary, secondary, and higher education. What would you favor--raising taxes or reducing education spending?

ADULT POPULATION / LIKELY VOTERS ONLY

RAISE TAXES = 74% / 76%

CUT EDUCATION = 13% / 12%

MIXED RESPONSE (Do Both) = 8% / 9%

NO OPINION = 5% / 3%

100% / 100%

Q71. Would you favor or oppose the following two ways to raise taxes and prevent further cuts in public elementary, secondary, and higher education.

Q72. Raising the state income tax from five percent to six percent for all taxable income above $15,000 per year?

ADULT POPULATION / LIKELY VOTERS ONLY

FAVOR = 61% / 64%

OPPOSE = 30% / 29%

NO OPINION = 9%/ 7%

100% / 100%

Q73. Raising the state sales tax from 6 cents on the dollar to 7 cents?

ADULT POPULATION / LIKELY VOTERS ONLY

FAVOR = 64% / 71%

OPPOSE = 33% / 28%

NO OPINION = 3% / 1%

100% / 100%

This telephone poll of 558 adult Mississippi residents was conducted April 1-13, 1992 by the Survey Research Unit of the Social Science Research Center at Mississippi State University. The results were weighted or adjusted by demographic characteristics such as education, race, and gender, so that all groups would be represented in the sample in proportion to their presence in the state population; this procedure helps to correct for the problem that not all groups are equally likely to own telephones. A sample size of 558 yields an approximate sample error of plus or minus 4%, which means that if the entire population had been interviewed, the results could differ from the above by as much as 4%.

Likely voters are determined by people's responses to three political knowledge, interest, and vote likelihood questions. The smaller sample of 373 likely voters contains a slightly higher approximate sample error of 5%.

This telephone poll of 558 adult Mississippi residents was conducted April 1-13, 1992 by the Survey Research Unit of the Social Science Research Center at Mississippi State University. The results were weighted or adjusted by demographic characteristics such as education, race, and gender, so that all groups would be represented in the sample in proportion to their presence in the state population; this procedure helps to correct for the problem that not all groups are equally likely to own telephones. A sample size of 558 yields an approximate sample error of plus or minus 4%, which means that if the entire population had been interviewed, the results could differ from the above by as much as 4%.

PUBLIC BACKS LOTTERY, TERM LIMITATION, EXISTING UNIVERSITY SYSTEM

Mississippi residents back a state lottery, limiting the terms of state officials and legislators, and keeping all eight universities open, according to a statewide poll conducted by researchers and students at Mississippi State University.

In the poll, 62% favored "establishing a state lottery in Mississippi," while 29% were opposed and 9% had no opinions. An even greater margin of 68% favored "limiting the terms of state legislators and other state officials to two 4-year terms," with 24% opposed and 8% offering no opinions. A sizable 71% agreed with the alternative of keeping "all eight public universities open in order to provide maximum access to higher education," while 19% favored closing "the smaller universities and programs in the state in order to help finance the four largest universities," and 10% offered other responses or had no opinions. "Lottery opponents clearly have their work cut out for them if they wish to defeat the lottery at the polls in November," commented survey director Steve Shaffer, Professor of Political Science. After the defeat of a number of anti-lottery legislators at the polls last November, the legislature this year passed a constitutional amendment removing the constitutional ban on a lottery. To take effect, voters must ratify the amendment by a majority vote in November. "Majorities of all social groups except the older generation and residents of the more tradition-bound 1st congressional district favor a state lottery," added Shaffer. "Support for the lottery cuts across ideological, partisan, race, and socioeconomic status lines," concluded Shaffer. "However, lottery foes do have over six months to mount a major campaign to inform voters about the possible harmful effects of a lottery, so the election could still be a close one."

"Term limitation has even greater broad based support," said Shaffer, "reflecting a disillusionment that Americans across the nation have with politics and a public belief that incumbents may have too much power." Majorities of all social groups examined favored limiting the terms of state officials including legislators to two 4-year terms. Governor Fordice has supported term limitation, and Lieutenant Governor Briggs has supported a constitutional amendment limiting the lieutenant governor to two terms. "Our poll suggests that a constitutional amendment limiting the lieutenant governor to two terms will be ratified by the voters in November," added Shaffer. "It also suggests that if initiative and referendum do become law so that voters can petition to amend the state constitution, voters may indeed try to limit the terms of other state officials," said Shaffer. "However, such term limitations would prevent people from re-electing more than once state officials whom they think are doing a good job representing them."

"Mississippians appear to back the legislature's reluctance to close any of the smaller universities in the state, even in the face of limited state funds," said Shaffer. He cautioned, however, that the wording of the question seemed to suggest that all four smaller universities might be closed, and that Mississippians might be less reluctant to close only one university. Majorities of all social groups except those families making over $40,000 per year preferred the alternative of maximum access to education provided by eight public universities over closing the smaller universities in order to help fund the four largest universities. During the 1986 recession, the legislature rejected the College Board's recommendation to close two of the smaller universities. During the recent campaign, Governor Fordice suggested setting up a blue-ribbon panel to decide whether any universities should be closed, a process similar to that used by Congress to close obsolete military bases. "Its interesting that support for keeping all eight universities does vary somewhat across social groups," concluded Shaffer, "as conservatives, Republicans, whites, and higher socioeconomic status groups are not quite as supportive of the existing university system as are other groups."

LOTTERY, TERM LIMITATION, UNIVERSITY SYSTEM

Q67. Do you favor or oppose establishing a state lottery in Mississippi?

ADULT POPULATION / LIKELY VOTERS ONLY

FAVOR = 62% / 65%

OPPOSE = 29% / 27%

NO OPINION = 9% / 8%

100% / 100%

Q68. Do you favor or oppose limiting the terms of state legislators and other state officials to two 4-year terms?

ADULT POPULATION / LIKELY VOTERS ONLY

FAVOR = 68% / 73%

OPPOSE = 24% / 23%

NO OPINION = 8% / 4%

100% / 100%

Q69. In a future of financial difficulty, what direction should higher education in Mississippi take? Should we close the smaller universities and programs in the state in order to help finance the four largest universities? Or should we keep all eight public universities open in order to provide maximum access to higher education?

ADULT POPULATION / LIKELY VOTERS ONLY

CLOSE SMALLER UNIVERSITIES = 19% / 22%

KEEP ALL 8 OPEN = 71% / 71%

OTHER RESPONSES = 5% / 3%

NO OPINION = 5% / 4%

100% / 100%

This telephone poll of 558 adult Mississippi residents was conducted April 1-13, 1992 by the Survey Research Unit of the Social Science Research Center at Mississippi State University. The results were weighted or adjusted by demographic characteristics such as education, race, and gender, so that all groups would be represented in the sample in proportion to their presence in the state population; this procedure helps to correct for the problem that not all groups are equally likely to own telephones. A sample size of 558 yields an approximate sample error of plus or minus 4%, which means that if the entire population had been interviewed, the results could differ from the above by as much as 4%.

REPUBLICANS POPULAR IN MISSISSIPPI, POLL SHOWS

Republicans George Bush and Trent Lott are very popular among state residents and voters, and a growing number of Mississippians think of themselves as Republicans, according to a recent poll conducted by the Social Science Research Center at Mississippi State University. Each Republican holds a wide margin over possible Democratic hopefuls in upcoming races. In a two-way matchup for the presidency between Republican President George Bush and Arkansas governor Bill Clinton, Bush is favored by 60% of Mississippians likely to vote in November, while Clinton receives 30% of the vote and 10% are undecided. In a hypothetical matchup for the 1994 senate race between incumbent Republican Senator Trent Lott and former Democratic governor Ray Mabus, Lott receives 62% to 32% for Mabus with 6% undecided.

"Mississippians rate the job performances of President Bush and Senator Lott very favorably," commented Professor Steve Shaffer, survey director. "Fifty-three percent of Mississippians rated Lott's performance as either excellent or good, 30% rated him fair, and only 5% rated his job performance as poor, with 12% having no opinions," said Shaffer. "President Bush was only slightly less popular with 48% of Mississippians rating his job performance as excellent or good, 35% saying fair, 15% rating him poor, and 2% offering no opinions," added Shaffer. "Lott's popularity is quite widespread, evident in nearly every social group examined," said Shaffer. "Among those offering opinions, Lott's job performance was rated favorably as excellent or good by 59% of liberals, 62% of conservatives, 55% of Democrats, 69% of Republicans, 66% of whites and 47% of blacks," continued Shaffer. "While also high, Bush's support differed more across social groups than did Lott's," added Shaffer. "While 73% of Republicans and 59% of whites rated Bush's job performance as excellent or good, only 31% of Democrats and 26% of blacks did," concluded Shaffer.

"Especially interesting is how the Republican party continues to gain sympathizers among state residents, as the old one-party Democratic South continues to wither," continued Shaffer. "The gap between the parties among adult residents has fallen to single digits for the first time in the 10 year history of MSU opinion polling," observed Shaffer. "Thirty-nine percent of Mississippians call themselves Democrats, 30% are Republicans, and 31% are Independents or offered other responses," said Shaffer. "Because Republicans are more likely to vote than Democrats, Republicans now have a slight advantage over Democrats among likely voters sampled, which is another first in the history of our polling," continued Shaffer. "The major implication of the closing of the gaps between the parties is that candidates need no longer feel that they must run as Democrats in order to be elected in Mississippi," said Shaffer. "The election of Kirk Fordice and Eddie Briggs as the first Republican governor and lieutenant governor in one hundred years was not just a fluke that reflected voter dissatisfaction with Democratic incumbents," concluded Shaffer, "but also a vivid demonstration that two party competition has arrived in Mississippi."

Mississippians are somewhat more divided in their evaluations of newly elected Republican governor Kirk Fordice, compared to veteran political figures like George Bush and Trent Lott. "Thirty-seven percent of Mississippians in early April rated Fordice's job performance so far as excellent or good, 27% rated it fair, 22% said poor, and 14% offered no opinions," said Shaffer. Fordice's rating in the poll is slightly higher than that of former Governor Ray Mabus, however. "Thirty-four percent of residents surveyed rated Mabus' job as governor as excellent or good, 38% rated it fair, and 23% poor with 5% having no opinions," said Shaffer. "In very hypothetical matchups between Fordice and three state Democrats mentioned as possible gubernatorial candidates in 1995, Fordice has a 1% lead among likely voters surveyed over former Governor Mabus and current Attorney General Mike Moore," continued Shaffer. "However, Fordice was favored by a significant 50% of voters when matched against Secretary of State Dick Molpus who received 38% support with 12% undecided," said Shaffer. "In any event, it's a little early to accurately measure public reaction to Fordice's performance as governor, especially when a recession forces a governor to make tough decisions like cutting the state budget," concluded Shaffer.

This telephone poll of 558 adult Mississippi residents was conducted April 1-13, 1992 by the Survey Research Unit of the Social Science Research Center at Mississippi State University. The results were weighted or adjusted by demographic characteristics such as education, race, and gender, so that all groups would be represented in the sample in proportion to their presence in the state population. A sample size of 558 yields an approximate sample error of plus or minus 4%, which means that if the entire population had been interviewed, the results could differ from the above by as much as 4%. The smaller sample of 373 likely voters was determined by people's responses to three political knowledge, interest, and vote likelihood questions, and it consequently has a slightly higher approximate sample error of 5%.

FEDERAL ELECTION QUESTIONS

PRESIDENTIAL RACE:

Q25. If the governor of Arkansas, Bill Clinton, was the Democratic nominee for President, and George Bush was the Republican nominee, whom would you vote for? Bill Clinton or George Bush?

CLINTON (D) = 30%

BUSH (R) = 60%

UNDECIDED = 10%

100%

1994 SENATE RACE: ONE POSSIBLE MATCH-UP

Q27. If the general election for United States Senator was held today, and the two candidates were Democrat Ray Mabus and Republican Trent Lott, whom would you vote for? Mabus or Lott?

MABUS (D) = 32%

LOTT (R) = 62%

UNDECIDED = 6%

100%

This telephone poll of 373 adult Mississippi residents who are likely voters was conducted April 1-13, 1992 by the Survey Research Unit of the Social Science Research Center at Mississippi State University. The results were weighted or adjusted by demographic characteristics such as education, race, and gender, so that all groups would be represented in the sample in proportion to their presence in the voting population; this procedure helps to correct for the problem that not all groups are equally likely to own telephones. A sample size of 373 yields an approximate sample error of plus or minus 5%, which means that if the entire population of likely voters had been interviewed, the results could differ from the above by as much as 4%. Likely voters are determined by people's responses to three political knowledge, interest, and vote likelihood questions.

PARTY IDENTIFICATION

Q50. Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Democrat, Republican, Independent, or what?

(Voters and Non-Voters) / (Likely Voters Only)

DEMOCRATS = 39% / 34%

INDEPENDENTS = 23% / 23%

REPUBLICANS = 30% / 37%

APOLITICAL = 8% / 6%

100% / 100%

PARTY IDENTIFICATION TIES OVER THE YEARS (Voters and Non-Voters)

1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 CHANGE (1982-1992)

DEMOCRATS = 53% 44% 44% 45% 46% 39% - 14%

INDEPENDENTS/ APOLITICALS = 32% 40% 31% 34% 28% 31% - 1%

REPUBLICANS = 15% 16% 25% 21% 26% 30% + 15%

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

DEMOCRATIC ADVANTAGE:

(% DEM - % REP) 38% 28% 19% 24% 20% 9%

PARTY IDENTIFICATION TIES OVER THE YEARS (Likely Voters Only)

1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 CHANGE(1982-1992)

DEMOCRATS = 48% 43% 44% 46% 37% 34% - 14%

INDEPENDENTS/ APOLITICALS = 35% 40% 30% 30% 32% 29% - 6%

REPUBLICANS = 17% 17% 26% 24% 31% 37% + 20%

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

DEMOCRATIC ADVANTAGE:

(% DEM - % REP) 31% 26% 18% 22% 6% - 3%

Source: Statewide public opinion polls of adult Mississippi residents conducted by the Social Science Research Center at Mississippi State University.

1995 GOVERNOR'S RACE: THREE POSSIBILITIES

Q28. If the Democratic primary for governor of Mississippi was held today, and the candidates were former governor Ray Mabus, Secretary of State Dick Molpus, and Attorney General Mike Moore, whom would you vote for? Mabus, Molpus, or Moore?

(Among All Likely Voters) (Excluding Strong Republicans, who would likely

vote in the Republican Primary)

MABUS = 33% 36%

MOLPUS = 17% 17%

MOORE = 30% 29%

UNDECIDED = 20% 18%

100% 100%

Q29. If the general election for governor was held today, and the candidates were Democrat Dick Molpus and Republican Kirk Fordice, whom would you vote for? Molpus or Fordice?

MOLPUS (D) = 38%

FORDICE (R) = 50%

UNDECIDED = 12%

100%

Q30. If the candidates for governor were Ray Mabus and Kirk Fordice, whom would you vote for?

MABUS (D) = 46%

FORDICE (R) = 47%

UNDECIDED = 7%

100%

Q31. If the gubernatorial candidates were Mike Moore and Kirk Fordice, whom would you vote for?

MOORE (D) = 43%

FORDICE (R) = 44%

UNDECIDED = 13%

100%

JOB RATINGS OF PUBLIC OFFICIALS

Q17-21. I'm going to ask you to rate the job performance of a few political figures and institutions. Rate each of them as excellent, good, fair, or poor.

-- RATINGS OF VOTERS AND NONVOTERS --

FEDERAL OFFICIALS

PRESIDENT BUSH SENATOR LOTT

Excellent = 10% 11%

Good = 38% 42%

Fair = 35% 30%

Poor = 15% 5%

No Opinion = 2% 12%

100% 100%

STATE OFFICIALS

GOVERNOR FORDICE FORMER GOVERNOR MABUS

Excellent = 6% 6%

Good = 31% 28%

Fair = 27% 38%

Poor = 22% 23%

No Opinion = 14% 5%

100% 100%

This telephone poll of 558 adult Mississippi residents was conducted April 1-13, 1992 by the Survey Research Unit of the Social Science Research Center at Mississippi State University. The results were weighted or adjusted by demographic characteristics such as education, race, and gender, so that all groups would be represented in the sample in proportion to their presence in the state population; this procedure helps to correct for the problem that not all groups are equally likely to own telephones. A sample size of 558 yields an approximate sample error of plus or minus 4%, which means that if the entire population had been interviewed, the results could differ from the above by as much as 4%.

-- RATINGS OF LIKELY VOTERS ONLY --

FEDERAL OFFICIALS

PRESIDENT BUSH SENATOR LOTT

Excellent = 13% 14%

Good = 40% 40%

Fair = 29% 31%

Poor = 16% 5%

No Opinion = 2% 10%

100% 100%

STATE OFFICIALS

GOVERNOR FORDICE FORMER GOVERNOR MABUS

Excellent = 7% 7%

Good = 35% 28%

Fair = 23% 37%

Poor = 23% 26%

No Opinion = 12% 2%

100% 100%

BALANCING THE BUDGET IN GENERAL TERMS

Q66. The state of Mississippi faces a financial crisis, and the legislature will have to raise taxes or cut spending on state programs. What would you support-- raising taxes or cutting spending?

ADULT POPULATION LIKELY VOTERS ONLY

RAISE TAXES = 34% 39%

CUT SPENDING = 49% 43%

DO SOME OF BOTH = 11% 13%

NO OPINION = 6% 5%

100% 100%

This telephone poll of 558 adult Mississippi residents was conducted April 1-13, 1992 by the Survey Research Unit of the Social Science Research Center at Mississippi State University. The results were weighted or adjusted by demographic characteristics such as education, race, and gender, so that all groups would be represented in the sample in proportion to their presence in the state population; this procedure helps to correct for the problem that not all groups are equally likely to own telephones. A sample size of 558 yields an approximate sample error of plus or minus 4%, which means that if the entire population had been interviewed, the results could differ from the above by as much as 4%.