PUBLIC OPPOSES TERM LIMITS, CANING

In yet another blow to the term limits movement, a recent poll conducted by Mississippi State University finds that a narrow majority of residents oppose term limits, even when limits are confined to the state legislature. A broad term limits initiative proposing to limit all elected and appointed officials in state and local government to two consecutive terms was rejected by voters last November, garnering only 46% of the votes. "A key objection that many people have is that an automatic term limits measure would limit the voters' opportunity to elect whomever they want to," commented Dr. Stephen D. Shaffer, Professor of Political Science and Director of the Poll. "When asked 'Do you favor or oppose limiting the terms of state legislators to two 4-year terms, even if it means that voters cannot reelect someone who is doing a good job,' 53% of Mississippians opposed term limits and 40% favored it with 7% undecided. This poll suggests that proponents of term limits must change the focus of public debate to better stress whatever advantages they see in enacting term limits," added Shaffer.

"Another factor that appears to be hurting the term limits movement is the rising popularity of the state legislature," continued Shaffer. "In April 1996, 34% of Mississippians rated the legislature's job performance as excellent or good, 44% rated it fair, and only 13% rated its job as poor (9% had no opinions)," said Shaffer. "The 34% excellent and good rating is the highest favorable rating that the legislature has had in our polls since the 39% it received in 1981. The 13% poor rating is the lowest negative rating since the 12% the legislature received in 1988. Sixty-three percent of those rating the legislature as excellent or good oppose term limits while only 33% favor it and 4% have no opinions. Among those rating the legislature as fair, 49% oppose term limits and 44% favor it (7% have no opinions). Only among the few people who rate the legislature's performance as poor does a majority (52%) favor term limits (with 47% opposed and 1% having no opinions)," concluded Shaffer.

"The concern that Mississippians have over being able to choose whomever they want to represent them is so strong that when the question is worded the way we have worded it, all social groups oppose limiting terms," observed Shaffer. "Term limits are opposed by 54% of Republicans, 51% of conservatives, and 50% of whites, as well as by 59% of Democrats, 55% of liberals, and 61% of African-Americans," Shaffer said. "The term limits movement has clearly lost momentum in the last two years. A similarly worded question in our 1994 poll which asked about a two term limit for 'state legislators and other state officials' and also cautioned people about not being able to 'reelect someone who is doing a good job,' found that 52% favored term limits and 36% opposed it with 12% undecided. Despite limiting the measure to the state legislature, term limits has lost 12% support over the last two years while opposition has risen by 17%," added Shaffer. "Of course, any poll is just a snapshot in time, and both sides of this issue will be working hard to try to define their position in the most positive light. And it's years before another term limits measure is likely to get on the ballot, so anything can happen," concluded Shaffer.

"Mississippians also appear somewhat skeptical about the use of caning to fight crime, a measure proposed by one lawmaker that died in a legislative committee," added Shaffer. "When asked whether they favored or opposed 'letting judges sentence inmates to corporal punishment, such as caning or beating them,' 51% of Mississippians opposed caning while 44% favored it and 5% were undecided. People are so concerned about and frustrated over crime that some view caning as a viable option. The gender, partisan, and racial differences over this issue were particularly interesting. Among those favoring caning were 55% of men, 51% of Republicans, and a plurality of 48% of whites. Those opposing caning included 61% of women, 61% of African-Americans, and 57% of Democrats," observed Shaffer.

"As with the term limits question, the caning item may be criticized as being somewhat one-sided, since it includes the emotionally-laden term 'beating,' which may discourage some people from voicing support for this punishment," cautioned Shaffer. "But we saw during the legislative debate over this issue that the press and vocal legislators framed this issue in terms of the inhumanity of this type of 3rd world punishment being used in the United States. Anyone backing caning will have to deal with this concern, and at least frame the issue in a more positive manner such as by stressing any evidence that might suggest that it would serve as a deterent to crime," concluded Shaffer.

TERM LIMITS, CANING, STATE LEGISLATURE

Do you favor or oppose limiting the terms of state legislators to two 4-year terms, even if it means that voters cannot reelect someone who is doing a good job?

Favor = 40%

Oppose = 53%

No Opinion = 7%

Do you favor or oppose letting judges sentence inmates to corporal punishment, such as caning or beating them?

Favor = 44%

Oppose = 51%

No Opinion = 5%

I'm going to ask you to rate the job performance of a few political figures and institutions. Rate each of them as excellent, good, fair, or poor. The Mississippi state legislature?

Excellent = 5%

Good = 29%

Fair = 44%

Poor = 13%

No Opinion = 9%

This telephone poll of 601 adult Mississippi residents was conducted April 9-21, 1996 by the Survey Research Unit of the Social Science Research Center at Mississippi State University. The results were weighted or adjusted by demographic characteristics such as education, race, gender, and age, so that all groups would be represented in the sample in proportion to their presence in the population. A sample size of 601 yields an approximate sample error of plus or minus 4%.

GROUP DIFFERENCES ON LEGISLATIVE TERM LIMITS

Note: Percentages total 100% across each row.

GROUP DIFFERENCES ON CANING

Note: Percentages total 100% across each row.

PUBLIC SPLIT BETWEEN TWO PARTIES, POLL SHOWS

At a time when the presidency is held by Democrat Bill Clinton and Congress is controlled by the Republican Party, average Mississippians are also very evenly split between the two parties, according to a recent poll conducted by Mississippi State University. When asked "generally" what party they considered themselves as, 48% of all adults surveyed said Democratic, 42% said Republican, and 10% were pure Independents. When focusing solely on those most likely to vote, 47% identified with the Republican party, 44% called themselves Democrats, and 9% were Independents. "The parties are so evenly split that these results are within sampling error, which means that if we had interviewed all Mississippians instead of just a sample that the parties may have been exactly equal," explained Dr. Stephen D. Shaffer, Professor of Political Science and Director of the poll. The poll was conducted April 9-21 by the Social Science Research Center at MSU, and 601 adult Mississippi residents, of whom 359 were identified as likely voters, were interviewed. The sample error for all adults is plus or minus 4%, and the error for likely voters was plus or minus 5%.

"These results have been remarkably stable since our 1992 statewide polls, with Democrats having a slight lead among all Mississippi adults and Republicans having a slight lead among those most likely to vote," continued Shaffer. "Such an even split between the parties is a big change from the state's historic Democratic dominance, and even as late as 1982 Democrats outnumbered Republicans among Mississippi voters by a two-to-one margin. Today, candidates can run as Democrats or Republicans, and on balance their party label will not help or hurt them," said Shaffer. "So candidates really have to run more on their own qualifications, accomplishments, and ideas, and most voters will vote for the person rather than the party. The split results in the 1995 statewide elections show that people vote for the candidate rather than the party, as Republicans held on to the governorship while Democrats won every other statewide race," Shaffer concluded.

"Each of the parties is viewed as having strengths and doing a better job in different areas," Shaffer said. "A majority of Mississippians view Democrats as caring more for the 'Have-Nots' of society, and better protecting the interests of African-Americans. A plurality of residents view Republicans as better able to reduce the crime rate (44%) and preserve traditional values (45%), though a majority have other views on these two issues. While a plurality (42%) of residents believe that Democrats are better at 'supporting education,' a significant minority (34%) choose the Republicans and others feel that there is no difference or they have no opinions (24%). These same general patterns emerge whether one looks at all adult Mississippians or only those most likely to vote. And Mississippians are so evenly split between the parties that when we ask on balance which party will do a better job of 'protecting the interests of people like you,' about 40% of Mississippians say Democratic, 40% Republican, and 20% are up for grabs," said Shaffer.

"There are very definite ideological and socioeconomic differences between the parties, when looking at all adults," continued Shaffer. "Democrats receive the support of 84% of African-Americans, 69% of families making less than $20,000 per year, 68% of high school dropouts, and 64% of liberals. Republicans are backed by 63% of college graduates, 58% of whites, 57% of those making over $40,000 per year, and 57% of conservatives. Fifty-eight percent of those over 60 years of age are Democrats and only 37% Republicans, but those under 36 are evenly split between the parties (46% Democratic and 47% Republican). A majority of women (52%) are Democratic, while men are evenly split between the parties (44% Democratic and 45% Republican)," said Shaffer.

"Despite Republican gains in the population since 1982, one concern that they should have is that in Mississippi the Democratic party appears to be a broader tent party," speculated Shaffer. "Mississippi Democrats are pretty evenly split in ideological terms with 38% of state Democrats calling themselves moderates, 37% conservatives, and only 25% liberal. Democrats are also a truly biracial party with 45% of state Democrats being white and 55% African-American. State Republicans on the other hand have a more uniform nature. Two-thirds (66%) call themselves conservatives, and only 23% are moderates and 11% liberal. An overwhelming 93% of Republicans are white and only 7% black. On the other hand, Republicans are better balanced in terms of gender, as half are men and half are women. The broad tent philosophy of the state Democratic party may help explain their success last year in winning all statewide offices except governor, as well as their ability to retain control of over two-thirds of the state legislature," concluded Shaffer.

THE PARTY IDENTIFICATION OF MISSISSIPPIANS

Response to the question: "Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Democrat, Republican, Independent, or what?" Those saying Independent are then asked: "Do you think of yourself as closer to the Democratic party or the Republican party," and are included with the party that they are closer to. Pure Independents are Independents who are closer to neither party.

(All Adults: Voters and Non-Voters)

YEAR OF SURVEY	Democrats	Pure Independents	Republicans
1982	61%	14%	25%
1984	56%	15%	29%
1986	54%	10%	36%
1988	53%	13%	34%
1990	56%	8%	36%
1992	47%	13%	40%
1994	47%	12%	41%
1996	48%	10%	42%

(Likely Voters Only)

YEAR OF SURVEY	Democrats	Pure Independents	Republicans
1982	59%	12%	29%
1984	53%	14%	33%
1986	56%	6%	38%
1988	53%	7%	40%
1990	47%	6%	47%
1992	37%	11%	52%
1994	43%	8%	49%
1996	44%	9%	47%

Note: Percentages total 100% across each row.

PUBLIC IMAGES OF THE TWO PARTIES

Response to the question: "Which of the two parties--Democratic or Republican--do you think would do the best job in the following areas?"

(All Adults: Voters and Nonvoters)

(Likely Voters Only)

Note: Percentages total 100% across each row.

GROUP DIFFERENCES ON PARTY IDENTIFICATION (ALL ADULTS)

Note: Percentages total 100% across each row.

GROUP COMPOSITION OF THE TWO PARTIES (ALL ADULTS)

Note: Percentages total 100% down each column.

PUBLIC BACKS STATE SPENDING PROGRAMS, POLL SHOWS

Mississippians strongly back state spending programs, and even want state and local government to spend even more on most programs, according to a recent poll conducted by Mississippi State University. The April 9-21 telephone poll of 601 adult Mississippi residents, conducted by the Survey Research Unit of the Social Science Research Center, found that a majority of residents wanted state and local government to spend more on nine of the eleven programs asked about, compared to current spending levels. "The top priority was public elementary and secondary education," said Dr. Stephen D. Shaffer, Professor of Political Science and Director of the survey. "Other top priorities that Mississippians especially wanted to spend more money on were health care, higher education, and law enforcement, where on each program 60% of more of Mississippians wanted more money to be spent. A second tier of important programs received at least 50% support but not 60%, and those programs were highways, attracting industry, poverty programs including child day care, and prison construction. Lower priority items where the public's views were split more were environmental protection and encouraging tourism," said Shaffer.

"The public has remained pretty consistent over the years of our polling," added Shaffer. "Elementary and secondary education became the public's top priority after 1981 and has remained at the top since 1984. Higher education has consistently received support from 60% or more of the public since 1988. Health care has consistently received over 60% backing since 1984. The public's increasing concern over crime is reflected in spending on police entering and remaining at the 60% level beginning in 1990. Highways and industry recruitment have been consistently important programs, though dipping slightly below 60% in 1996. Other programs historically haven't been quite as high in the public's priorities as these," said Shaffer.

"The public's backing of education is especially noticeable, since both of the education items make the top 4 of the 11 spending items, and one is the top item," commented Shaffer. "Even when we include people having no opinions towards education programs in the less supportive group, we find that a majority of Mississippians favor spending more money on both elementary and secondary, and higher education. Majorities of men (of whom 51% wish to spend more on both levels of education) and women (59%), low and high income groups (62% and 57%, respectively), those under 60 years of age, and the critical moderates (56%) and Independents (55%) favor state and local government spending more on both levels of public education. However, there are some ideological and partisan differences on education spending," cautioned Shaffer. "Liberals (74% of whom wish to spend more), African-Americans (72%), and Democrats (64%) are especially supportive of spending more on public education, while conservatives (of whom 48% wish to spend more), whites (47%), and Republicans (44%) aren't quite as supportive. Ironically, while 55% or more of everyone from high school dropouts to those completing some college back more education spending, a more modest 48% of college graduates back more spending on both levels of education," said Shaffer. "The widespread public support for more spending on education may be viewed as a continuing public endorsement of the state legislature's backing of a tax increase in 1992, with virtually all of the money earmarked for helping education from kindergartens to universities," commented Shaffer. "Voters appeared to reward legislators for their political courage in the 1995 state elections, when the vast majority of incumbents were re-elected."

"People may occasionally complain about paying taxes and say they favor a balanced federal budget, but when you ask them about specific programs you find that they want government to be active in improving the quality of lives for themselves and their children," observed Shaffer. "Indeed, the Mississippi state legislature may actually be getting rewarded by citizens for trying to fund public programs as well as they do, instead of cutting back on spending. When we combine people's responses to all eleven spending programs and group them into the one-third of the population who want more spending on ten or eleven programs, the one-third desiring more spending on eight or nine of the programs, and the one-third of the sample desiring more spending on 'only' four to seven of the programs, we find some tendency for those demanding the most public services to be especially appreciative of the state legislature. Forty-two percent of these 'most demanding' residents rated the legislature's job performance as excellent or good, and only 8% rated them poor (the remaining 50% rated its performance fair). The 'somewhat demanding' group was also pretty supportive of the legislature, with 38% of them rating its performance excellent or good, and only 12% rating it poor. Only among the one-third of the population 'least demanding' of more government spending were opinions of the state legislature more mixed, with 31% of them rating its performance excellent or good, 47% rating it fair, and 22% poor," said Shaffer.

"The fact that the public is so demanding of more public services and improved public services makes it very hard to significantly cut back on taxes. However, the legislature has been helping many Mississippians with such programs as the College Tuition Assistance Grant. The budget was so tight this year that teachers, professors, and state employees went without a raise. Next year the legislature is again going to have to consider all of the needs of the state and the demands of citizens for public services, before enacting any significant tax cut, or they risk facing an angry public," cautioned Shaffer.

SPENDING ON STATE PROGRAMS

Question wording: "As you know, most of the money government spends comes from the taxes you and others pay. For each of the following, please tell me whether you think state and local government in Mississippi should be spending more, less, or about the same as now."

Note: Percentages total 100% across each row.

This telephone poll of 601 adult Mississippi residents was conducted April 9-21, 1996 by the Survey Research Unit of the Social Science Research Center at Mississippi State University. The results were weighted or adjusted by demographic characteristics such as education, race, gender, and age, so that all groups would be represented in the sample in proportion to their presence in the population. A sample size of 601 yields an approximate sample error of plus or minus 4%.

PUBLIC PREFERENCES ON SPENDING PROGRAMS OVER THE YEARS

Percentage Saying Spend More Compared to Now

Note: Percentages are those saying that more should be spent on that public program compared to current spending level.

na indicates question not asked that year.

GROUP DIFFERENCES ON EDUCATION SPENDING

Note: Percentages total 100% across each row.