Contemporary Mississippi politics has become increasingly complex, and some would say even schizophrenic. In one year a conservative Republican pledged to cutting taxes is elected governor, but then in the next year a Democratic-controlled state legislature raises taxes over his veto (in order to prevent further cuts in education spending). The same year that a conservative Republican is re-elected U.S. Senator with close to 70% of the vote, Democrats win four of five U.S. House districts with up to 68% re-election margins. Two months after a nationwide Republican sweep that produces the first Republican-controlled U.S. House in forty years sees two modest tax cut proposals made during a state election year die in the legislature.

Many political observers have traditionally viewed the Magnolia State as a very conservative state--one of the most southern of the Deep South states. And indeed Mississippi did vote more heavily for Republican George Bush in 1992 than did any other state, and in one study was rated as having among the most conservative citizens and state public policies in the nation (Wright, Erikson, and McIver, 1987, p. 989). Yet other political scientists have pointed out that the empowerment of African-Americans (a more liberal and Democratic group that comprises 36% of the state's population), the persistence of a sizable number of lower socioeconomic status whites, and the emergence of well-educated reform-oriented professionals of both races translate into considerable interest group and public pressure for more progressive public policies (Krane and Shaffer, 1992; Parker, 1993). Indeed, Mississippi maintains the highest tax effort of every southern state except one in an effort to provide needed governmental services demanded by the public (Stanley and Niemi, 1994, p. 318).

This publication addresses the complexity of contemporary Mississippians' political orientations by examining fourteen years of statewide opinion polls conducted by the Social Science Research Center at Mississippi State University. In the first half, we focus on residents' concerns over the quality of life in the state and how it can be improved. The latter half turns to how the political party system might translate public desires into public policies, thereby enhancing officials' electoral hopes.

QUALITY OF LIFE CONCERNS

Mississippians are generally satisfied with the quality of life in the Magnolia state with 70% rating the state as an excellent or good place to live, and 82% claiming that they will probably or definitely be living in their community five years from now (table 1). Despite the numerous problems often linked to a lower socioeconomic level, many residents find other positives about the small-town environment of Mississippi (Krane and Shaffer, 1992, p. 287-288). Yet there does appear to be an economic source for and political effect of people's ratings of the state's quality of life. After the national recessions of 1982 and 1990 and Mississippi's mini-recession of 1986, there was a 17% drop in the percentage of residents rating the state's quality of life as excellent between 1981 and 1992, as well as a 10% drop between 1984 and 1992 in residents who were "pretty well satisfied" with their personal financial situations. Since many politically ill-informed Americans blame the nation's Chief Executive when economic times are bad, a similar phenomenon may have contributed to incumbent Governor Ray Mabus' surprising re-election defeat. A modest increase in people's ratings of life in Mississippi and of their own financial situations between 1992 and 1994 may aid the current incumbent's re-election hopes, if these upturns persist.

Scholars of political culture such as Daniel Elazar (1984) have regarded Mississippi as a very traditionalistic state committed to very limited governmental functions. The Second Reconstruction and other modernizing trends have swept across the state over the past four decades, liberalizing its political culture to some degree (Bartley and Graham, 1975). By 1994 majorities of Mississippians backed an increasingly active state (and local) government devoted to promoting the quality of life of its citizens (table 2). Improving public education at all levels, fighting crime with enhanced police forces and prisons, providing such social services as health care, child care, and poverty programs, and attracting industrial development and improving transportation infrastructure were all viewed as priorities to an increasingly impatient public.

Mississippi policymakers, perhaps reflecting their more stereotypical views of residents as being traditionalistic, struggled to keep up with their constituents. Despite a public that rated elementary and secondary education as one of the top two spending priorities, it took a special legislative session before Governor William Winter's 1982 Education Reform Act became law. Another popular public priority--improved highways--required a legislative override of Governor Bill Allain's veto of the 1987 Highway Bill. After a prolonged recession and cuts in popular programs such as education, the 1992 legislature enacted a sales tax increase over Governor Kirk Fordice's veto, earmarking over 90% of the increased revenue for public education at all levels. In short, consistent with the increased demands of constituents for more and better government services, the "conservative" state of Mississippi raised taxes at least three times since the last tax cut of 1979, as well as enacted numerous bond measures. The reluctance of many state legislators to back modest tax cuts in the last two years--fearing a dip in revenue necessary to fund important public programs--is yet another reflection of Mississippi's changed political culture.

While nearly all residents agree on the goal of an active government seeking to improve the quality of their lives, there are differences over how state government should go about attaining this goal. Most liberal and conservative social groups tend to place different emphases on different types of programs (these data from the 1994 poll are not shown; all data cited in this paper are available from the authors upon request). Those under 35 years of age, women, African-Americans, lower socio-economic status residents (high school dropouts with annual family incomes under $20,000), and "liberal" Democrats tend to be more supportive than "opposite" demographic groups of social welfare types of programs, such as increased spending on fighting poverty, promoting health care, providing child care, and protecting the environment. More conservative social groups also view these programs as a legitimate governmental concern, but not to as great a degree. One special concern of those over 60, the higher socioeconomic status, and conservative whites is that government should protect the safety of its citizens by increased spending on police forces. One or more of these groups also places a slightly higher priority than more progressive groups on building jails, improving highways, and attracting tourism.

Once again, consistent with the legislature's increased willingness to make education a spending priority (reflected in the 1982 and 1992 tax increases), education is an issue that elicits widespread support from all demographic groups. For example, even 74% of self-identified "conservatives" and 77% of Republicans in 1994 maintained that state and local government in Mississippi should spend more money on elementary and secondary education, as did 86% of Democrats, 76% of whites, and 90% of blacks (data not shown). Such popular support for education helps account for the one-third of state senate Republicans in 1992 who voted to override the governor's veto of a tax increase for education. Indeed, in 1995 one of those pro-education Republicans--Roger Wicker from the progressive city of Tupelo--became the first Republican since Reconstruction to occupy veteran Democrat Jamie Whitten's House seat, as he defeated a Democratic state house member who had also voted for the education tax increase.

Impatient and demanding average Mississippians, most of whom have a very limited understanding of how government works (reflected in angry phone calls to legislators after congressional pay raises by residents who mistakenly believe that state lawmakers "already make $133,000 a year"), are increasingly disillusioned with public officials. The same kind of rising public cynicism is also sweeping the nation, helping to account for President Bush's ouster in 1992 and the election of a Republican Congress in 1994. In Mississippi, the defeat of Governor Winter's 1982 Education Reform Act in the regular legislative session was a public relations nightmare for lawmakers, perhaps contributing to the 9% drop in those rating the legislature's performance as excellent or good (table 3, last line). Over the next six years, the legislature's popularity held steady, as lawmakers enacted the Education Reform Act in a special session and proceeded to deal with another important need of the state by enacting the 1987 Highway Bill. Despite the tax increase in an election year, lawmakers were generally returned to office as residents viewed their actions as improving the quality of life for Mississippians.

Between the 1988 and 1992 polls, the legislature's popularity plunged 16 points, as a stalemate between Governor Ray Mabus and each legislative chamber killed additional education reform and produced recession-induced cuts in popular programs such as education. In the 1991 statewide elections, residents lashed out at the most visible state leaders that they could find--the governor and lieutenant governor--nearly denying them the renominations of their own parties, and finally dumping them for their Republican opponents. Ironically, defeated lieutenant governor Brad Dye had worked for a feasible solution to the deadlock, a tax increase which the next legislative session ended up adopting, but was nevertheless a victim of voter ignorance and anger. Between 1992 and 1994 public cynicism and legislative criticism has decreased somewhat, perhaps in response to legislative leadership in 1992 to raise revenue to prevent further cuts in popular programs (table 3). The recent upturn in voter confidence in state government has a national parallel--Americans became less disillusioned with government during the 1980s, when Republican Ronald Reagan was president and the economy was booming. These patterns suggest that Kirk Fordice may be Mississippi's Ronald Reagan, benefitting from a booming economy and projecting an image that he can make government work for the average citizen, one topic further addressed in the second part of this paper.

Like most Americans, Mississippians remain sufficiently cynical about public officials that many entertain ideas for fundamental change in government, though others become more cautious when fully thinking through various "reform" proposals. The issue of term limits has passed in every state except one when it has been proposed, and a 1992 poll found 68% of Mississippians favoring a two-term limit for state officials and only 24% opposed. But how the issue is framed and debated affects the level of support for term limits. In the 1994 poll voters were cautioned that the measure would mean that they "cannot reelect someone who is doing a good job," and support declined to 52% while opposition rose to 36%. With vocal African-American opposition to the amendment also expected to rise, the November popular vote on this measure could be closer than anticipated. Even more surprising to many political observers is public opposition to cutting the number of legislators in half "in order to save money and promote efficiency," even if it means "more power for unelected staff members and lobbyists." Only 35% of Mississippians back this plan, as 53% reject it and 12% have no opinions or give other responses. A more modest cut in the number of legislators, such as the 20% cut over a ten year time span proposed by a legislative committee this year, presumably would garner less public opposition.

Mississippians are not only concerned about improving the quality of life for themselves, but also show an increasing concern with improving the lives of all Mississippians. Historically a very traditionalistic state where men monopolized power in the political and economic realms and women were expected to be homemakers and childraisers, Mississippians are today increasingly supportive of an equal role for women in the political and business world (table 4). Even as late as 1984, a sizable 41% of state residents agreed with the statement that, "Women should take care of running their homes and leave running the country up to men." By 1994, only 24% of Mississippians agreed with this statement consigning women to a subordinate role, while a whopping 70% favored an active role for women in leading the nation.

This 17% rise in public receptiveness to women political candidates exceeds the margin that Evelyn Gandy lost to Governors Winter and Allain in the 1979 and 1983 Democratic gubernatorial runoffs, suggesting a likely Gandy victory if she had been running in today's Mississippi (at least in the second election when she lost the runnoff against Allain with 48% of the vote). An increased willingness of Mississippians to support the more capable and qualified candidate, regardless of sex, obviously buoys the hopes of today's talented public officials who may happen to be women, such as state senator Amy Tuck of Starkville. Tuck stunned political observers in an open seat contest in 1990 by upsetting a successful businessman and College Board member, becoming the youngest woman ever elected to the state senate. A strong supporter of measures that improve the quality of life for all Mississippians, she most recently played the leadership role in enacting a program to repair the state's deteriorating and dangerous bridges. Facing a male opponent in the 1995 Democratic runoff primary for Secretary of State with over three times the years of political officeholding experience as herself, Tuck nevertheless came within 1% of winning. Meanwhile, Republicans nominated former legislator Barbara Blanton over a man who had previously served as state Republican party executive director.

Given the traditionalistic history of Mississippi, few people were surprised when every Mississippi affiliate refused to air the controversial television program NYPD Blue, given its profanity and nudity. Greater surprise may have greeted the news of a 1994 poll that showed an even split among average Mississippians regarding whether the program should be banned "because of the nudity and profanity" (45% said yes), or whether viewers "should have the opportunity to see this program if they wish to" (48% favored televising it). Given the high critical acclaim as well as national ratings that NYPD Blue received, by January 1995 three network affiliates in Mississippi began to air this program. A decisive factor in this debate is the question of individual opportunity--permitting people to make their own choice about what to watch and what to read may be regarded as enhancing those persons' quality of life.

Two very important aspects of a good quality of life to many Mississippians is religion and personal safety. Not only do most Mississippians support prayer in the public schools, but a 1981 poll indicated that 68% even favored "requiring the teaching of the biblical version of creation in the public schools" (Shaffer, 1982). Many residents believe that the U.S. Supreme Court has gone too far in erecting a wall between church and state, and feel that many of our national problems have a moral source that could be addressed partly by moral or religious instruction in the schools. A belief by some that government is now persecuting the religious was only reinforced by the Jackson school board initial firing of Wingfield High principal Bishop Knox for permitting students to read a short non-denominational prayer over the loudspeakers against the advice of the board's lawyer. Governor Fordice's defense of the principal on national television reflected many Mississippians' values. Indeed, in such a religiously-oriented state where about 98% of residents claim to affiliate with a Christian religion, Fordice's remark at a national conference that America was a "Christian" nation created no discontent among the vast majority of Mississippians.

Most Mississippians are very concerned over crime, and appear supportive of harsh punishments in order to possibly deter other potential criminals and at least to punish convicted criminals and to give some peace of mind to victims and their families. State polls have consistently found whopping majorities of residents favoring the death penalty for those convicted of first-degree murder and for "drug pushers convicted of causing the death of another person." While various academics criticized the 1994 special legislative session (which required inmate work in order to receive amenities such as television and authorized massive prison construction) as being punitive rather than rehabilitative or oriented towards prevention, it is quite likely that state residents strongly backed such a "get tough" approach. In coffee shops across the state, citizens condemn the "technicalities" that result in sentences being reversed, tire of being required to pay $30,000 per year to house each inmate serving life terms for murder, and are enraged that a family of a loved one who has been victimized by murder must sometimes wait up to ten years before the convict sitting on death row is finally executed. Liberal journalists ridiculed state legislators in 1995 for even considering a bill to legalize caning (beating), but as the American public outcry in support of Singapore's caning of an American vandal indicated, many people are so frustrated with the criminal justice system that they are willing to consider anything.

Another area in which many Mississippians retain conservative values relates to racial issues. Many white Mississippians are proud of their "heritage" and of certain aspects of their state's history, perhaps embodied in the popularity of the annual "pilgrimages." Consequently, a massive 96% of whites in a 1994 poll felt that the state flag should be "kept as it is," rather than be changed to "remove the Confederate flag design." Many African-Americans and progressive whites express concern that the current state flag fails to unify all of the people of our state and that it projects a negative image of the state to non-Mississippians by highlighting a symbol of the Old South that was based on the inhuman institution of slavery. Indeed, even as late as 1995 the state legislature had never ratified such human rights measures as the 13th amendment to the federal constitution which abolished slavery, a situation stunning progressive Americans. Even among younger whites there appears to be little understanding of or sympathy for how the state flag may be viewed by a people whose ancestors were kidnapped from their homes, often murdered in transatlantic shipping, and sometimes raped and beaten by their "owners" in the United States. Instead of seriously considering reparations to the offsprings of African slaves, similar to reparations paid to Japanese-Americans who were imprisoned for a few years during a world war, most whites reject even relatively inexpensive "symbolic" measures (Haley, 1976; Malcolm X, 1964).

Despite some progress in race relations that has occurred throughout the South, many Mississippians (often for economic reasons) still live in neighborhoods dominated by their own race, send their kids to schools dominated by their own race, attend same race churches, and socialize largely with people of their own race. Consequently, many white and black Mississippians view the world in very different perspectives, as reflected in a 1994 poll question about the Beckwith trial. When informed that Beckwith had been "tried twice in the 1960s for the murder of civil rights leader Medgar Evers, but an all-white, all-male jury couldn't agree on his guilt or innocence," and told that "since there is no statute of limitations on murder, Beckwith was recently tried again, and a racially mixed jury found him guilty," 80% of blacks responded that it was fair to try him again while 60% of whites said it was unfair. Most blacks presumably focus on the unfairness of an all-white jury in the 1960s, a product of the "legal" and often violent exclusion of African-Americans from the voting rolls, failing to give impartial justice to the family of Mississippi's most notable human rights leader, Medgar Evers, a man whose body lies buried in Arlington National Cemetary along with others who served their nation in war (Evers, 1967). Whites, some of whom may be less personally aware of this period in the state's history, may view such events from a different perspective. Many whites may merely see an elderly man tried for the third time thirty years after a crime, when witnesses have died or their memories faded.

In short, Mississippians have conflicting political views and values, and are not monolithically conservative. Even regarding the federal government so often disdained by right-wing conservatives, most Mississippians favor popular programs that help the middle-class or a poor state like their own, such as education, health care, and jobs. Seventy-one percent of likely voters (who tend to be slightly more conservative than the entire population) in 1994 agreed that "the government ought to help people get doctors and hospital care at low cost." Fifty-three percent of voters even went so far as to agree that "the government in Washington should see to it that every person has a job and a good standard of living." Fifty-two percent of voters rejected the notion that "the government in Washington should provide fewer services, even in areas such as health and education, in order to reduce government spending." Mississippians are so concerned over the domestic problems facing Americans that 82% of voters agree that "this country should pay more attention to problems at home and less attention to problems in other parts of the world."

While economic issues may unite Mississippians of all racial heritages behind more progressive policies, racial concerns are potentially more divisive. Fifty-three percent of voters agree with the broad goal that "the government in Washington should make every effort to improve the social and economic position of blacks and other minority groups," but when turning to specific remedies such as affirmative action, 79% disagree with the general statement that "because of past discrimination blacks should be given preference in hiring and promotion." In coffeeshop talk, whites today strongly back "merit" and "qualifications" as being the only worthy criteria for job hiring and promotions. Affirmative action proponents face an uphill battle if a constitutional amendment banning this remedy for current societal inequities is sent to state voters for ratification.

THE NEW ERA OF PARTISAN POLITICS

In view of Mississippians' relatively progressive views on domestic economic issues such as education and health care and more conservative values on social issues and crime, it is understandable that the average voter describes himself or herself as "moderate" or only "somewhat conservative" ideologically. Combining data from the 1992 and 1994 polls for greater reliability, we find that a sizable 31% of voters called themselves "moderate or middle of the road," while an equally high 31% labelled themselves only "somewhat" conservative. Twenty percent of voters regarded themselves as "very conservative," and only 16% called themselves "very" or "somewhat" liberal (2% couldn't label themselves). Clearly, the center of gravity in Mississippi politics, when one considers the entire range of issues facing the state and the diversity of the populace, ranges from moderate to somewhat conservative.

Mississippi public officials have been quite successful at reflecting the values of most voters or at least projecting the impression that they mirror those values. The typical voter has viewed Republicans Trent Lott and Kirk Fordice as "somewhat conservative," similar to their impression of President George Bush (table 5). Lesser known state officials (anyone other than Governor) such as Secretary of State Dick Molpus and Lieutenant Governor Eddie Briggs are viewed by voters as "moderates." The only public figures to be perceived as significantly to the left of center (moderate liberals) were former governor Ray Mabus and President Clinton, both of whom were rejected by state voters in recent years.

The popularity of moderate Democrats and Republicans who are ideologically to the right of center is evident when examining Mississippians' ratings of presidents and governors. Both Republican presidents, moderate conservative Bush and conservative Reagan, were popular with residents of the Magnolia state (table 6). Reagan remained popular among Mississippians throughout his term of office, except for a dip in popularity during the recession-year of 1982, and left office with 59% of voters rating his job performance as excellent or good. Bush was similarly popular earlier in his term, but the recession exerted a comparable depressing effect on his job performance ratings, which still remained high enough to carry the Magnolia state in the 1992 election. Bush was assisted by his unpopular opponent, moderate liberal Democrat Bill Clinton, who in 1994 achieved an historic low of only 30% of Mississippians rating his job performance as excellent or good. A moderate liberal such as Bill Clinton or Jimmy Carter appears to be the best that conservative southern Democrats can hope for as their party's presidential hopeful, given the national party's fairly liberal orientation. Clinton's relative unpopularity leaves a political observer wondering whether the national Democratic party will have much hope of carrying Mississippi in the next few presidential elections.

All four of Mississippi's most recent governors--two middle of the road Democrats, a moderate liberal, and a conservative Republican--have been relatively popular, with one from each party maintaining their popularity throughout their terms of office (table 7). Fifty-eight percent of state voters rated William Winter's performance in 1981 highly as excellent or good, and after leading the fight for the Education Reform Act that necessitated significant tax increases, Winter remained very popular. In other words, moderate Democrats can get elected to state office. Indeed, they can even support a tax increase, provided that it is seen as benefitting the top priority of residents--education. Forty-four percent of state voters rated Kirk Fordice's performance early in his first year as excellent or good, and as voters became more familiar with his values and performance he became even more popular with 55% of voters rating his performance in 1994 as excellent or good. In other words, conservative Republicans can get elected to state office. Indeed, they can even be outspoken conservatives in the mold of Rush Limbaugh and pursue conservative policies as did Ronald Reagan, and still remain popular. Yet Winter's popularity is even more impressive, given the 1982 recession that even took a toll on the Great Communicator--Ronald Reagan--while Fordice may have been helped by a booming economy.

Another potential problem for Fordice is that, unlike Winter who was highly popular among voters and nonvoters, Fordice is not quite as popular among likely nonvoters as among likely voters.

The most striking thing about the two moderately popular governors--Democrats Allain and Mabus--was the significant decline in the latter's popularity. As a Harvard-educated reformer who pledged education-reform and a Mississippi that would "never be last again," Mabus entered office with 53% of voters rating his performance as excellent or good and only 4% as poor (table 7). As the recession deepened and the state's chief executive was required to make cuts in numerous state programs, a sizable 20% of voters in 1990 rated his job performance as poor, though 48% still rated him favorably. Perhaps the deadlock over Mabus' education reform plan hurt him the next year among two conflicting constituencies, as many progressives argued that he should have been willing to raise taxes to improve education, while conservatives may have viewed his proposed alphabet-soup of education programs as an overly intrusive government social experiment much like many people came to view Clinton's failed health care plan.

As further testimony to the fairly wide latitude that Mississippians give to public officials--provided that their ideology ranges essentially from moderate to conservative--we turn to the 1994 poll's ratings of four other diverse personalities. Interest group (ADA, ACA) ratings of the roll call votes of Jamie Whitten and Trent Lott identify Democrat Whitten as being a moderate while Republican Lott is a conservative. Most political observers would rate Secretary of State Dick Molpus as a moderate, while Lieutenant Governor Eddie Briggs is rated a moderate conservative. All four figures are relatively popular among voters with none of their "poor" ratings exceeding 10% (table 8). Trent Lott's high 61% excellent or good ratings are as impressive as President Reagan's and Bush's at their historical high point, and Dick Molpus' 52% excellent or good ratings are also impressive, especially in view of the lower visibility of his office compared to that of a U.S. Senator or a state's Chief Executive. The fact that about one-fourth of likely voters were unwilling to rate Congressman Whitten and Lieutenant Governor Briggs at all underscores the lack of knowledge that many people have about government and politics below the levels of the U.S. Senate and Governor. Such limited public awareness of politics increases the lattitude that officials have in shaping their own public images.

Prior to the 1950s, white Mississippians were overwhelmingly Democratic in partisanship (African-Americans were basically disenfranchised), as they viewed the Democratic party favorably as the party of the Old South, the party of hope for a low income state during the Great Depression, and the party that preserved Jim Crow (Key, 1949). As the parties nationally realigned along ideological divisions with a more conservative Republican party whose standard bearers included Barry Goldwater and Ronald Reagan facing a more liberal Democratic party whose leaders included John Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson, and George McGovern, some white Mississippians began to identify with the national Republican party. White flight into the Republican party may also have been stimulated by the enfranchisement of African-Americans, a historically more liberal group that tended to vote heavily Democratic and that fully integrated the state Democratic party.

Republican gains suffered a temporary reversal during the 1982 recession that occurred during Reagan's presidency, as approximately 60% of adult Mississippians labelled themselves as Democrats and only about one-fourth as Republicans (table 9). As the economy began booming and Reagan's popularity started its steady rise, Republicans made fairly steady gains among average Mississippians while Democratic ranks dwindled. Under popular Republican president George Bush, Republicans essentially erased the historic advantage that Democrats had held among average Mississippians, as the parties reached parity. Sampling error cautions against reading too much into the exact numbers presented in table 9, which can vary from other statewide polls employing different methodological procedures (see appendix). Basically, by the early 1990s Mississippi had finally become a two-party state in the minds of average Mississippians. Though Democrats appeared to maintain a slight edge among all adult residents, elections with low turnout appeared to produce slight Republican advantages. The virtual elimination of the Democratic advantage among likely voters presumably contributed to rising Republican fortunes in such races as governor, helping to explain the surprise statewide victories of Kirk Fordice and Eddie Briggs in 1991. Yet one should not overstate Republican gains, since the even partisan split among Mississippians puts a premium on parties fielding attractive candidates who can attract more Independent voters, and popular incumbent Democrats at the state and local levels have often encountered few obstacles to re-election even today.

A key problem facing state Democrats today is how to stem the white flight from their party. African-Americans remain 86% Democratic with only 7% identifying as Republicans (table 10). But whites, who in the early 1980s were more likely to call themselves Democrats than Republicans, are beginning to prefer the Republican to the Democratic label by about a two-to-one margin (Shaffer, 1993-94). Among whites in the 1994 poll, Democrats outnumber Republicans only among the small group of self-identified "liberals". A whopping 80% of whites who are college graduates and 76% whose family incomes exceed $40,000 called themselves Republicans. Only among moderates, liberals, those over 60, and high school dropouts were Democrats strong enough to deny Republicans majority support among white Mississippians.

When comparing the 1994 poll with information provided in the University of Mississippi's Public Administration Survey issue cited earlier, we find Democrats suffering losses and Republicans making gains since 1982 among virtually every type of white Mississippian. Change is especially noticeable among moderate and conservative whites. In 1982 "moderate" whites were more Democratic than Republican by a two-to-one margin. By 1994 Republicans now outnumbered Democrats among moderate whites, though combined with Independents, Democrats were able to deny Republicans a majority of this key group. In 1982 "conservative" whites were only slightly more Republican than Democratic (49% to 40%). By 1992 white conservatives preferred the Republican to Democratic label by over a three-to-one margin, culminating in a whopping 72% calling themselves Republicans in 1994 and only 18% labelling themselves as Democrats.

CONCLUSIONS

Returning to the theme of quality of life, while there is considerable public agreement regarding attaining the goal of a higher quality of life for residents of the Magnolia state, there appears to be considerable disagreement over how to go about attaining that goal and which party or candidate can best achieve that goal. As reflected in public disagreements between Kirk Fordice and Eddie Briggs, Republican party and public officials are themselves somewhat divided over whether a government modeled along strict conservative or moderate conservative lines can better improve the quality of life for all Mississippians. Democrats exhibit even more fissures as a truly broad-tent party encompassing such liberals as Bennie Thompson, moderates like Dick Molpus, and moderate conservatives like Sonny Montgomery and Gene Taylor (Taylor joined Mike Parker in abstaining from the 1995 U.S. House organizational vote rather than voting in support of the liberal leadership of House Democrats). Needless to say, a gubernatorial battle between moderate Dick Molpus and conservative Kirk Fordice should prove fascinating, since both are relatively popular among those most likely to vote, despite having very different visions of how to improve Mississippians' quality of life.

TABLE 2

SPENDING ON STATE SERVICES

Specific Programs Asked About Compared to Now, Gov't Should Spend:

in 1994 Poll:

MORE LESS SAME DON'T KNOW

PUBLIC GRADE SCHOOLS/HIGH SCHOOLS 78% 5% 14% 3%

HEALTH CARE AND HOSPITALS 67% 7% 22% 4%

POLICE FORCES 67% 8% 21% 4%

PUBLIC COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES 64% 6% 27% 3%

STREETS AND HIGHWAYS 63% 7% 28% 2%

INDUSTRIAL GROWTH/DEVELOPMENT 62% 6% 28% 4%

CHILD DAY CARE FACILITIES 56% 10% 28% 6%

PROGRAMS FOR THE POOR 57% 16% 24% 3%

ENCOURAGING TOURISM 48% 15% 32% 5%

ENVIRONMENTAL PROGRAMS 45% 14% 35% 6%

JAIL AND PRISON FACILITIES 50% 21% 23% 6%

% Saying Spend More

Spending Program 1981 1984 1988 1990 1992 1994

PUBLIC GRADE SCHOOLS/HIGH SCHOOLS 70% 73% 76% 81% 76% 78%

HEALTH CARE AND HOSPITALS 57% 62% 69% 74% 73% 67%

POLICE FORCES 58% 51% 57% 66% 64% 67%

PUBLIC COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES 60% 59% 68% 63% 69% 64%

STREETS AND HIGHWAYS 61% 65% 68% 70% 61% 63%

INDUSTRIAL GROWTH/DEVELOPMENT 72% 61% 72% 61% 70% 62%

CHILD DAY CARE FACILITIES NA NA 48% 60% 54% 56%

PROGRAMS FOR THE POOR 48% 59% 57% 64% 55% 57%

ENCOURAGING TOURISM 49% 44% 48% 53% 48% 48%

ENVIRONMENTAL PROGRAMS 39% 36% 41% 48% 48% 45%

JAIL AND PRISON FACILITIES 37% NA 40% 50% 39% 50%

NOTE: Table entries are the percentages of adult Mississippi residents backing increased spending in response to the following introductory statement: Now I'm going to ask you about some issues facing state and local government in Mississippi. As you know, most of the money government spends comes from the taxes you and others pay. For each of the following, please tell me whether you think state and local government in Mississippi should be spending more, less, or about the same as now.

NA indicates question not asked in that year.

TABLE 3

RISING PUBLIC DISILLUSIONMENT

How Often Trust

Public Officials: 1981-1994

1981 1990 1992 1994 Change

ALMOST ALWAYS 8% 5% 2% 4% 4% Decline

MOST OF TIME 39% 27% 14% 25% 14% Decline

SOME OF TIME 42% 49% 57% 44% 2% Increase

RARELY 8% 17% 26% 25% 17% Increase

NO OPINION 3% 2% 1% 2%

100% 100% 100% 100%

Rating of State

Legislature's

Job Performance WINTER ALLAIN MABUS FORDICE

ADMIN. ADMIN. ADMIN. ADMIN.

1981 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994

Excellent 3% 5% 3% 2% 4% 2% 2% 2%

Good 36% 24% 25% 27% 29% 23% 16% 22%

Fair 46% 43% 51% 41% 46% 50% 44% 45%

Poor 8% 15% 11% 17% 12% 16% 29% 22%

No Opinion 7% 13% 10% 13% 9% 9% 9% 9%

(% MOST

FAVORABLE =

% of those

having opinions

rating legislature

as excellent

or good) 42% 33% 31% 33% 36% 27% 20% 26%

QUESTION WORDINGS: How much of the time do you think you can trust public officials in Mississippi to do what is right-- almost always, most of the time, only some of the time, or rarely? I'm going to ask you to rate the job performance of a few political figures and institutions. Rate each of them as excellent, good, fair, or poor. What about the Mississippi state legislature?

TABLE 4

INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF EQUAL RIGHTS FOR WOMEN

Attitude Towards

Women's Rights 1984-1994

1984 1986 1988 1990 1994 Change

Against Equal Rights 41% 39% 39% 34% 24% 17% Decline

For Equal Rights 53% 56% 55% 61% 70% 17% Gain

No Opinion 6% 5% 6% 5% 6%

QUESTION WORDINGS: Do you agree or disagree with the following statement-- Women should take care of running their homes and leave running the country up to men? Those agreeing with this statement are classified as "Against Equal Rights" for women, and those disagreeing with the statement are classified as "For Equal Rights".

TABLE 5

IDEOLOGICAL VALUES OF VOTERS AND THEIR VIEWS OF OFFICIALS

1994 Survey

Entire Population Voters Alone

Mean (% Don't Know) Mean (% Don't Know)

Bill Clinton 2.3 (15%) 2.1 (11%)

Trent Lott 3.5 (25%) 3.7 (18%)

Kirk Fordice 3.6 (22%) 3.8 (13%)

Eddie Briggs 3.3 (48%) 3.4 (42%)

Dick Molpus 3.1 (41%) 3.1 (31%)

Average Citizen's

Own Ideology 3.4 ( 6%) 3.4 ( 4%)

1992 Survey

Entire Population Voters Alone

Mean (% Don't Know) Mean (% Don't Know)

George Bush 3.5 (13%) 3.6 (10%)

Bill Clinton 2.6 (28%) 2.5 (22%)

Trent Lott 3.5 (22%) 3.6 (16%)

Ray Mabus 2.7 (21%) 2.5 (14%)

Kirk Fordice 3.7 (28%) 4.0 (22%)

Dick Molpus 3.2 (41%) 3.2 (41%)

Average Citizen's

Own Ideology 3.5 ( 5%) 3.6 ( 2%)

NOTE: Entries are average Mississippian's (or voter's) perceptions of the ideological orientations of public figures, based on the following question: "Please label the following political figures as very liberal (score of 1), somewhat liberal (2 score), moderate (or middle of the road, score of 3), somewhat conservative (4 score), or very conservative (5)." A mean of 3.5 for Trent Lott among voters and nonvoters in 1994, for example, indicates that the average Mississippian perceived Lott's ideology as midway between moderate and somewhat conservative. Percentages in parentheses indicates what percentage of people weren't able to rate the political figures ideology, either because they lacked knowledge about them or because they didn't think of them in ideological terms. The last row for each year shows Mississippians' own ideologies.

TABLE 6

MISSISSIPPIANS RATE AMERICAN PRESIDENTS

(Entire Population)

Rating President's

Job Performance

-------------- REAGAN -------------- --- BUSH --- CLINTON

1981 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994

Excellent 23% 9% 21% 21% 17% 19% 10% 6%

Good 31% 29% 32% 34% 37% 40% 38% 25%

Fair 27% 33% 22% 26% 25% 31% 35% 38%

Poor 15% 25% 24% 17% 18% 8% 15% 27%

No Opinion 4% 4% 1% 2% 3% 2% 2% 4%

(% MOST

FAVORABLE =

% of those

having opinions

rating President

as excellent

or good) 56% 40% 54% 56% 56% 60% 49% 32%

(Among Voters Alone)

-------------- REAGAN -------------- --- BUSH --- CLINTON

1981 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994

Excellent 30% 16% 26% 27% 19% 22% 14% 8%

Good 33% 31% 30% 32% 40% 44% 37% 22%

Fair 21% 29% 17% 30% 23% 28% 29% 33%

Poor 15% 22% 27% 11% 18% 6% 18% 33%

No Opinion 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 4%

(% MOST

FAVORABLE =

% of those

having opinions

rating President

as excellent

or good) 64% 48% 56% 59% 59% 66% 52% 31%

TABLE 7

MISSISSIPPIANS RATE THE STATE'S GOVERNORS

Rating Governor's (Entire Population)

Job Performance:

WINTER ALLAIN MABUS FORDICE

1981 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994

Excellent 10% 10% 5% 8% 12% 12% 6% 13%

Good 45% 42% 34% 32% 39% 32% 31% 33%

Fair 35% 34% 44% 43% 29% 37% 27% 37%

Poor 5% 7% 6% 11% 4% 13% 22% 13%

No Opinion 5% 7% 11% 6% 16% 6% 14% 4%

(% MOST

FAVORABLE =

% of those

having opinions

rating Governor

as excellent

or good) 58% 56% 44% 43% 61% 47% 43% 48%

(Among Voters Alone)

WINTER ALLAIN MABUS FORDICE

1981 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994

Excellent 12% 15% 6% 10% 14% 17% 8% 19%

Good 46% 43% 33% 39% 39% 31% 36% 36%

Fair 34% 32% 44% 40% 29% 31% 21% 32%

Poor 6% 8% 9% 11% 4% 20% 22% 12%

No Opinion 2% 2% 8% 0% 14% 1% 13% 1%

(% MOST

FAVORABLE =

% of those

having opinions

rating Governor

as excellent

or good) 59% 59% 42% 49% 62% 48% 51% 56%

TABLE 8

MISSISSIPPIANS RATE OTHER STATE FIGURES IN 1994

(Among Voters and Nonvoters):

LOTT WHITTEN BRIGGS MOLPUS

Excellent 16% 8% 4% 7%

Good 36% 28% 24% 37%

Fair 32% 25% 34% 29%

Poor 4% 8% 10% 6%

Don't Know 12% 31% 28% 21%

(% MOST

FAVORABLE =

% of those

having opinions

rating officials

as excellent

or good) 59% 52% 39% 56%

(Among Voters Alone):

LOTT WHITTEN BRIGGS MOLPUS

Excellent 24% 11% 6% 9%

Good 37% 30% 29% 43%

Fair 27% 23% 33% 28%

Poor 4% 9% 9% 7%

Don't Know 8% 27% 23% 13%

(% MOST

FAVORABLE =

% of those

having opinions

rating officials

as excellent

or good) 66% 56% 45% 60%

QUESTION WORDING: I'm going to ask you to rate the job performance of a few political figures. Rate each of them as excellent, good, fair, or poor.

TABLE 9

A TRADITIONALLY DEMOCRATIC STATE BECOMES A TWO-PARTY STATE

YEAR AND PARTY ENTIRE ADULT

ID CATEGORIES POPULATION LIKELY VOTERS ALONE

(DEM-REP) (DEM-REP)

1982

Democrats 60.8% 58.5%

Independents 14.4 (36D) 13.0 (30D)

Republicans 24.8 28.5

1984

Democrats 56.0 53.2

Independents 15.5 (27D) 13.4 (20D)

Republicans 28.5 33.4

1986

Democrats 54.4 55.5

Independents 9.7 (19D) 6.2 (17D)

Republicans 35.9 38.3

1988

Democrats 52.7 52.8

Independents 13.3 (19D) 6.8 (12D)

Republicans 34.0 40.4

1990

Democrats 55.9 47.4

Independents 7.8 (20D) 5.9 ( 1D)

Republicans 36.3 46.7

1992

Democrats 47.1 37.1

Independents 13.1 ( 7D) 10.8 (15R)

Republicans 39.8 52.1

1994

Democrats 46.8 42.7

Independents 11.9 ( 6D) 8.0 ( 7R)

Republicans 41.3 49.3

NOTE: Values in parentheses indicate Democratic or Republican advantage in each year in sample of likely voters or adult population.

QUESTION WORDING: Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Democrat, Republican, Independent, or what? (Independents were asked:) Do you think of yourself as closer to the Democratic party or to the Republican party? (Those independents leaning toward a party were considered identifiers of that party.)

TABLE 10

RACIALLY SPLIT PARTIES EMERGE

Group Differences on Party Identification in 1994 (Entire Adult Population)

DEMOCRATS INDEPENDENTS REPUBLICANS

(Among All Whites)

IDEOLOGY

Liberal 49% 11% 40%

Moderate 33 20 47

Conservative 18 10 72

YEARS LIVED IN STATE

20 or Less 27 14 59

Over 20 Years 29 14 57

AGE

18-35 25 11 64

36-60 28 16 56

61-98 36 15 49

EDUCATION

High School Dropout 38 22 40

High School Graduate 35 14 51

Some College Education 22 9 69

College Educated 12 8 80

FAMILY INCOME

Under $20,000 37 13 50

$20-40,000 30 14 56

Over $40,000 16 8 76

SEX

Male 25 16 59

Female 31 13 56

CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

1st 30 10 60

2nd 32 16 52

3rd 26 17 57

4th 26 11 63

5th 31 18 51

(Among All African-Americans)

86% 7% 7%

NOTE: Percentages total 100% across each row. Few demographic differences exist among African-Americans: among conservative blacks, 14% are Republican and only 79% Democratic; among blacks over 60, 95% are Democratic and only 1% Republican; among college graduate blacks, 94% are Democratic and only 4% Republican.

APPENDIX

These telephone surveys were conducted by the Survey Research Unit of the Social Science Research Center at Mississippi State University with facilities that permit simultaneous use of ten telephones. The SSRC is directed by Dr. Arthur Cosby. Random methods were employed to select household telephone numbers, as well as one adult to interview in each household. No substitutions were permitted, and up to five callbacks were made. Calls were made from 5:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m. on weeknights, and from 10:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. on weekends. The SSRC's sophisticated Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing System (CATI) was used to collect the data.

The 1994 statewide poll interviewed 620 adult Mississippi residents from April 4 to April 13, 1994. The results were adjusted by demographic characteristics to ensure that all social groups were adequately represented in the survey, adjusting for the fact that not all households own telephones. With 620 people surveyed, the sample error is plus or minus 4%, which means that if every Mississippi resident had been interviewed, the results could differ from those reported here by as much as 4%. The Director of the Survey was Dr. Stephen Shaffer in the MSU Political Science Department. The survey was conducted by MSU political science undergraduate majors, and sociologist Dr. Wolfgang Frese was of great assistance in creating the dataset and codebook. Most of the 1994 results cited in this paper (designated by such terms as "Entire Adult Population" or absent any designation) are based on this sample of 620 Mississippians.

A subsample of 362 of these Mississippians are considered "likely voters" because of their political knowledge, campaign interest, or expressed likelihood of voting. This subsample was also weighted by demographic characteristics so that all social groups were represented in rough proportion to their presence in the voting electorate. The sample error with 362 potential voters is plus or minus 5%, which means that if all likely voters in the state had been surveyed the results could have differed from these results by 5% in either direction.

Previous polls were conducted in the following years with the listed sample sizes and sample errors:

Sample Sample Interview

Year Size Error Period

1981 616 5% Oct. 19 - Nov. 19

1982 894 4% Sept. 7 - 18

1984 610 5% Apr. 15 - 29

1986 611 5% Feb. 17 - 26

1988 632 5% Apr. 11 - 24

1990 601 4% Mar. 26 - Apr. 3

1992 558 4% Apr. 1 - 14

APPENDIX (Page 2)

DEMOGRAPHICS OF 1994 SURVEY

AGE

18 to 29 23%

30 to 45 34%

46 to 59 23%

60 and up 20%

EDUCATION

High school dropout 34%

High school graduate 25%

Some college 25%

College graduate 16%

INCOME

$20,000 or less 33%

$20,000 to 40,000 33%

$40,000 to 60,000 10%

$60,000 or above 10%

Refused To Say 14%

RACE

White 68%

Black 32%

SEX

Male 46%

Female 54%

CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

First 23%

Second 18%

Third 21%

Fourth 19%

Fifth 19%