MISSISSIPPI POLL SHOWS ELECTION AND SPENDING PREFERENCES

With over six months before the elections in November, Republican Senator Trent Lott has a large early lead over Democratic challenger Troy Brown. In the presidential race at this early point, Republican George Bush's lead over Democrat Al Gore is so small that the contest is too close to call. Turning to state issues, while the top spending priority of Mississippians is public elementary and secondary education, other state programs are also priorities to residents, especially health care, poverty programs, and colleges and universities. Prominent state officials such as Governor Ronnie Musgrove and Lieutenant Governor Amy Tuck are rated favorably by residents, and the state legislature's popularity remains relatively high. These conclusions were reached from a poll conducted by political science students enrolled in a Political Analysis class and sponsored by the Social Science Research Center at Mississippi State University. The telephone poll was conducted April 3-16, 2000 and surveyed 613 adult Mississippi residents, of whom 368 were identified as likely voters. The results were statistically adjusted to reflect all social groups in Mississippi, even those less likely to own phones. The poll yields a sample error within 4% for the 613 adults and within 5% for the 368 likely voters, which means that the results would be within these percentages if every adult (or likely voter) in Mississippi had been surveyed. All of the U.S. Senate candidates who filed with the Secretary of State's office were included in the poll. Only the likely Democratic and Republican presidential nominees were included.

"As expected, at this early point Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott has a big lead over other announced candidates," commented Stephen D. Shaffer, Professor of Political Science at Mississippi State University and survey director. "If the election were today, Lott would receive about 64% of the vote, while Democratic nominee Troy Brown would receive 26%, other candidates would share a combined 2 to 3%, and about 7 to 8% of voters would be undecided."

A more surprising development is in the race for President, according to Shaffer. "If the election were held today, Bush would only narrowly carry Mississippi with about 49% of the vote to 44% for Al Gore, and about 7% of voters would be undecided," said Shaffer. "Even though Mississippi has voted Republican in every presidential election beginning with Reagan's victory in 1980, Dole won Mississippi in 1996 with only 50% of the vote to 44% for Clinton. Apparently, little has changed in Mississippi since then, and with Democratic victories in last year's gubernatorial contest and in the 4^th congressional district in the previous year, Democrats might be able to pull off an upset victory," cautioned Shaffer. "The presidential battle is a real tossup among such key groups in Mississippi as moderates, those under 35 years of age, the middle income, and females," added Shaffer. "Bush leads among conservatives, Republicans, whites, the college educated, and the higher income, while Gore leads among liberals, Democrats, African-Americans, and those with lower incomes."

Regarding state spending programs, residents continue to endorse an activist government that works to improve the quality of lives of its citizens, according to Shaffer. "When cautioned that the money that government spends comes from the taxes that people pay, and asked whether state and local government in Mississippi should spend more, less, or about the same as now, elementary and secondary education is the top priority of residents, as it has been since the first Mississippi Poll was conducted in 1981," said Shaffer. "Yet three other programs are also high priorities to residents with over 60% wanting to spend more money on each- health care, poverty programs, and colleges and universities." Majorities of citizens also desired to spend more money on highways, industrial growth, and the police. Over forty percent backed more spending on environmental programs and promoting tourism. "Other residents preferred to maintain spending levels on state programs, and very few supported budget cuts in any of these areas," concluded Shaffer. "Obviously public officials are going to face a tremendous challenge to meet these diverse public demands in a future of increasingly tight state budgets," cautioned Shaffer.

State officials including the governor, lieutenant governor, and state legislature receive quite favorable ratings from the public, according to the political science professor. "About half of residents rate the job performances of Governor Ronnie Musgrove and Lieutenant Governor Amy Tuck favorably as either excellent or good, less than one in twenty rate them unfavorably as poor, and the remainder are unable to rate them at this early point or rate them so-so as fair," said Shaffer. "Musgrove's ratings are higher than previous governors' Bill Allain and Kirk Fordice at similar points in their administrations," explained Shaffer. "They are as high as Ray Mabus' ratings were in his first year as governor, but as Mabus' re-election defeat during a time of state budget cuts illustrated, a lot can happen in four years," added Shaffer. "The fact that Lieutenant Governor Amy Tuck's job ratings are statistically tied with the governor's, and that she is as visible to voters as the governor (24% of voters refrained from rating her job compared to a similar 25% who refrained from rating Musgrove), is quite a public vote of confidence in her as well," continued Shaffer. "Regarding public figures in the federal government, as we have found in previous polls, Senator Trent Lott is very popular with 63% rating his job favorably as excellent or good and only 7% rating him poor, and President Bill Clinton remains less popular than previous Republican Presidents Reagan and Bush, as 46% rate his performance as excellent or good and a sizable 28% rate him poor," Shaffer said. "The state legislature's job performance ratings in early April remained historically high with 37% rating it excellent or good and only 9% poor, far higher ratings than during the budget cutting years of the early 1990s," added Shaffer.

ELECTIONS QUESTIONS

Asked of 368 likely voters: "If the presidential election was held today, and the candidates were Vice President Al Gore the Democrat and Texas Governor George W. Bush the Republican, whom would you vote for? Gore or Bush?

Gore = 43.8%

Bush = 48.8%

Undecided = 7.4%

100%

Asked of 368 likely voters: "If the general election for United States Senator was held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for? Democrat Troy Brown? Independent Jim Giles? Libertarian Lewis Napper? Reform candidate Shawn O'Hara? Or Republican Trent Lott?"

Brown = 25.8%

Lott = 64.2%

Giles = 0.4%

Napper = 0.1%

O'Hara = 1.9%

Undecided = 7.6%

100%

JOB PERFORMANCE RATINGS

Asked of 613 adult Mississippi residents: "I'm going to ask you to rate the job performance of a few political figures and institutions. Rate each of them as excellent, good, fair, or poor. What about ...? Would you rate his job performance as excellent, good, fair, or poor?"

JOB PERFORMANCE RATINGS

Note: Percentages total 100% across each row.

JOB PERFORMANCE RATINGS FROM PREVIOUS MISSISSIPPI POLLS*

	EXCELLENT	GOOD	FAIR	POOR	NO OPINION
Governor Allain (1984)	5%	34%	44%	6%	11%
Governor Mabus (1988)	12%	39%	29%	4%	16%
Governor Fordice (1992)	6%	31%	27%	22%	14%
State Legislature (1992 budget cuts)	2%	16%	44%	29%	9%
State Legislature (1996 boom econ.)	5%	29%	44%	12%	10%

Note: Percentages total 100% across each row.

* Website address is: http://www.ssrc.msstate.edu/Publications/srrs99-1.pdf

IDEOLOGICAL PERCEPTIONS

Asked of 613 adult Mississippi residents: "Please label the following political figures as very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate or middle of the road, somewhat conservative, or very conservative... Al Gore. George W. Bush Jr., Trent Lott, Ronnie Musgrove, Amy Tuck."

The last row indicates voters' responses to the following question: "What about your political beliefs? Do you consider yourself: very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate or middle of the road, somewhat conservative, or very conservative?"

	VERY LIBERAL	SOMEWHAT LIBERAL	MODERATE	SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE	VERY CONSERVATIVE	CANNOT LABEL THEM
Al Gore	24.7	25.5	15.7	13.6	5.1	15.4
George W. Bush Jr.	5.5	14.5	17.0	33.7	9.4	19.9
Trent Lott	4.6	8.4	14.9	32.5	18.9	20.7
Ronnie Musgrove	11.3	19.7	19.9	15.0	3.6	30.5
Amy Tuck	8.4	16.9	19.1	14.0	2.7	38.9
Residents' Own Views	7.6	15.4	31.3	26.1	13.8	5.8

Note: Percentages total 100% across each row.

SPENDING ON STATE PROGRAMS

Asked of 613 adult Mississippi residents: "Now I'm going to ask you about some issues facing state and local government in Mississippi. As you know, most of the money government spends comes from the taxes you and others pay. For each of the following, please tell me whether you think state and local government in Mississippi should be spending more, less, or about the same as now."

Note: Percentages total 100% across each row.

SENATORIAL ELECTION, GROUP DIFFERENCES

Note: Percentages total 100% across each row.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, GROUP DIFFERENCES

Note: Percentages total 100% across each row.