EARLY POLL SHOWS CANDIDATE STRENGTHS IN STATEWIDE RACES
Fifteen months before the 1999 gubernatorial primaries and over two years before the next presidential election, Democrats Mike Moore, Ronnie Musgrove, and Republican George W. Bush have early leads over other prominent political figures, according to a poll conducted by political science students and the Social Science Research Center at Mississippi State University.
The telephone poll was conducted April 14-26 and surveyed 401 likely voters, was statistically adjusted to reflect all social groups in Mississippi even those less likely to own phones, and yields a sample error within 5% of what the results would have been if every likely voter in Mississippi had been surveyed. None of the poll's hypothetical candidates have formally announced, however.
"Because of the early nature of the poll and the numerous other questions we chose to ask about important public policy issues, we were able to ask only a few election questions," explained survey sponsor and MSU political scientist Stephen D. Shaffer. "We estimated likely voting in the Democratic gubernatorial primary by making comparisons with the turnout in 1991 when the Democrats had a heated contest, and assumed all voters except the most intense Republicans would vote in that primary next year," explained Shaffer. "In a three person contest containing Attorney General Mike Moore, Lieutenant Governor Ronnie Musgrove, and former Governor Ray Mabus, at this early time point and given our assumptions about turnout, Moore would receive 37.5% of the vote, Musgrove would garner 26.5%, and Mabus would receive 21.2%, with 14.8% of primary voters remaining undecided," continued Shaffer. "The race is so muddled at this point, however, that while Moore runs first in most demographic groups, he does not gain 50% of the vote in any group examined," said Shaffer. "At this early point, Musgrove leads the pack among self-identified conservatives, less intense Republicans, those over 60 years of age, and the college educated, while Mabus comes in second or third in all social groups examined," concluded Shaffer.
"While Musgrove trails Moore at this early point, the Lieutenant Governor would be a formidable nominee for the Democrats," commented Shaffer. "In our 1996 poll we asked more specific questions about the Attorney General, and learned that Moore's job performance was rated highly by Mississippians, and that in a two-way race for governor with Kirk Fordice the contest would have been a statistical dead heat," recounted Shaffer. "In this poll we asked more specific questions about the Lieutenant Governor, and learned that Musgrove is very politically strong as well. About 60% of likely voters having opinions rate his job performance as excellent or good, while only 40% rate it less positively as fair or poor." said Shaffer. "As we found with Mike Moore in 1996, Ronnie Musgrove is able to transcend divisive ideological labels. 31% of voters are unable to assign an ideological label to him, while 24% think he is a conservative, 23% believe he is a moderate, and 22% see him as a liberal," added Shaffer. "Musgrove's political strengths at this point appear to be limited primarily by lower name visibility compared to Mike Moore," said Shaffer. "Twenty-three percent of voters don't know enough about him to rate his job performance, a lower name visibility figure than Moore had two years ago when only 13% were unable to rate his job performance," concluded Shaffer.
"If Musgrove won the Democratic nomination for governor, he would likely be as strong a candidate for his party as Mike Moore," continued Shaffer. "In a two-way contest between Musgrove and Republican Mike Parker, a Republican we included because of his likely greater name visibility than other GOP hopefuls due to his Congressional service, Musgrove leads Parker by a wide margin, drawing 50.5% of likely voters to 29% for Parker and 20.5% undecided," said Shaffer. "At this early point, Musgrove would lead Parker in every demographic group, including self-identified conservatives, except for residents of the 4th congressional district and self-identified Republicans," concluded Shaffer.
"While the Democrats have at least two titans in Mike Moore and Ronnie Musgrove, don't count the Republicans out yet," cautioned Shaffer. "Jack Reed and Kirk Fordice were both relatively unknown to average Mississippians, yet Republican Reed held Mabus to only 53% of the vote in 1987, and Fordice stunned political observers by upsetting incumbent governor Mabus," pointed out Shaffer. "It is a year and a half before the gubernatorial general election, and voters' general attitudes toward the two political parties are pretty even," said Shaffer. "About 46% think of themselves generally as Democrats, 43% as Republicans, and 11% as pure Independents leaning towards neither party," Shaffer continued. "Republicans therefore have a reservoir of support that they can build on, even if nominating a little known candidate, though Moore and Musgrove are both so strong that the GOP may have to worry about holding onto its base," Shaffer concluded.
"While Republicans are the underdog in the upcoming state elections, they are once again the frontrunners in a hypothetical presidential matchup for the year 2000. In a two-way contest between frontrunning GOP Texas Governor George W. Bush, one of former President Bush's sons, and Vice President Al Gore, Mississippi voters prefer Bush by 55% to 35% for Gore with 10% being undecided," said Shaffer. "Bush wins in every social group except among self-identified liberals, Democrats, those with family incomes under $20,000, and residents of the 2nd congressional district," explained Shaffer.
Additional information from the poll will be available from Shaffer through the MSU
Social Science Research Center. "In a few months, we plan to publish another study of the
political attitudes of Mississippians that updates our surveys from 1981 thru 1996," said Shaffer.
ELECTIONS QUESTIONS
Asked of 335 likely voters who are Democrats, Independents, and not so strong Republicans: "If the 1999 Democratic primary for governor was held today, and the candidates were former governor Ray Mabus, Attorney General Mike Moore, and Lieutenant Governor Ronnie Musgrove, whom would you vote for? Mabus, Moore, or Musgrove?"
Mabus = 21.2%
Moore = 37.5%
Musgrove = 26.5%
Undecided = 14.8%
Asked of 401 likely voters of all parties: "If the election for governor was held today, and the candidates were Democrat Ronnie Musgrove and Republican Mike Parker, whom would you vote for? Musgrove or Parker?
Musgrove = 50.5%
Parker = 29.0%
Undecided = 20.5%
Asked of 401 likely voters of all parties: "If the presidential election was held today, and the candidates were Vice President Al Gore the Democrat and Texas Governor George W. Bush the Republican, whom would you vote for? Gore or Bush?"
Gore = 35.1%
Bush = 55.4%
Undecided = 9.5%
GENERAL PARTY IDENTIFICATION QUESTION, asked of 401 likely voters: "Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Democrat, Republican, Independent, or what? (Asked of Democrats and Republicans: Do you consider yourself a strong, or not so strong Democrat/Republican) (Asked of Independents: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Democratic party or to the Republican party?)" Seven party identification categories, plus a no opinion category, were created from these questions.
Strong Democrats = 22.2%
Weak Democrats = 17.6%
Independent Democrats = 5.9%
Pure Independents = 9.4%
Independent Republicans = 11.3%
Weak Republicans = 17.6%
Strong Republicans = 14.3%
No Opinion = 1.7%
Combining categories listed above:
Democrats = 46%
Pure Independents, no opinions = 11%
Republicans = 43%
JOB PERFORMANCE RATINGS
Asked of all 401 likely voters: "I'm going to ask you to rate the job performance of a few political figures and institutions. Rate each of them as excellent, good, fair, or poor. What about ...? Would you rate his job performance as excellent, good, fair, or poor?"
Note: the following figures exclude those lacking opinions from the analysis. Name
visibility is listed in the last column, and indicates the percentage of likely voters who offered
opinions about the political figure's job performance.
JOB PERFORMANCE RATINGS
(Among those offering opinions)
| EXCELLENT | GOOD | FAIR | POOR | NAME
VISIBILITY | |
| Lieutenant Governor Ronnie Musgrove |
12.1% |
47.4% |
36.5% |
4.0% |
76.9% |
| Governor Kirk Fordice |
9.1% |
43.9% |
34.8% |
12.2% |
94.9% |
| President Bill
Clinton |
13.8% |
32.2% |
30.9% |
23.1% |
97.7% |
IDEOLOGICAL PERCEPTIONS
Asked of all 401 likely voters: "Please label the following political figures as very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate or middle of the road, somewhat conservative, or very conservative...
Bill Clinton. Al Gore. Kirk Fordice. Ray Mabus. Ronnie Musgrove."
The last row indicates voters' responses to the following question: "What about your
political beliefs? Do you consider yourself: very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate or middle of
the road, somewhat conservative, or very conservative?"
| VERY
LIBERAL |
SOME-WHAT LIBERAL | MODER-
ATE |
SOME-
WHAT CONSER- VATIVE |
VERY
CONSER- VATIVE |
CANNOT
LABEL THEM | |
| Ronnie Musgrove |
5.5% |
16.2% |
23.3% |
18.9% |
4.9% |
31.2% |
| Ray
Mabus |
6.2 |
20.5 |
16.8 |
18.4 |
6.8 |
31.3 |
| Kirk Fordice |
3.8 |
14.9 |
11.7 |
29.8 |
22.2 |
17.6 |
| Bill
Clinton |
35.0 |
26.8 |
14.3 |
8.7 |
4.6 |
10.6 |
| Al
Gore |
23.1 |
31.5 |
18.4 |
8.6 |
3.0 |
15.4 |
| Voters' Own Views |
4.0 |
12.1 |
34.4 |
32.3 |
12.9 |
4.3 |
GUBERNATORIAL PRIMARY, GROUP DIFFERENCES
| MABUS | MOORE | MUSGROVE | UNDECIDED | |
| Liberals | 22.2% | 41.8% | 24.4% | 11.6% |
| Moderates | 22.8 | 43.0 | 20.2 | 14.0 |
| Conservatives | 20.9 | 30.4 | 33.3 | 15.4 |
| State Resident 20 years or less | 21.2 | 35.5 | 21.1 | 22.2 |
| State Resident over 20 years | 21.2 | 38.3 | 28.6 | 11.9 |
| Age 18-35 | 30.7 | 37.9 | 20.2 | 11.2 |
| Age 36-60 | 17.6 | 42.6 | 23.1 | 16.7 |
| Age 61-98 | 17.0 | 26.3 | 41.5 | 15.2 |
| High School Dropouts | 17.8 | 39.2 | 32.6 | 10.4 |
| High School Graduates | 26.6 | 31.3 | 24.2 | 17.9 |
| Some College Education | 19.7 | 44.7 | 19.6 | 16.0 |
| College Graduates | 20.7 | 30.1 | 36.1 | 13.1 |
| Under $20,000 Family Income | 21.0 | 36.5 | 34.4 | 8.1 |
| $20-40,000 Family Income | 24.9 | 43.2 | 13.6 | 18.3 |
| Over $40,000 Family Income | 18.6 | 34.2 | 33.0 | 14.2 |
| Male | 20.1 | 33.0 | 31.3 | 15.6 |
| Female | 21.4 | 41.6 | 22.8 | 14.2 |
| 1st Congressional District | 22.1 | 31.3 | 26.9 | 19.7 |
| 2nd Congressional District | 37.5 | 37.6 | 17.7 | 7.2 |
| 3rd Congressional District | 31.9 | 31.1 | 29.0 | 8.0 |
| 4th Congressional District | 13.7 | 45.5 | 30.4 | 10.4 |
| 5th Congressional District | 13.4 | 37.1 | 20.2 | 29.3 |
| Democrats | 28.1 | 36.9 | 21.9 | 13.1 |
| Independents (include leaners) | 17.1 | 41.9 | 23.8 | 17.2 |
| Republicans (Weak only) | 11.2 | 32.1 | 42.5 | 14.2 |
GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION, GROUP DIFFERENCES
| MUSGROVE | PARKER | UNDECIDED | |
| Liberals | 72.0% | 14.1% | 13.9% |
| Moderates | 54.4 | 25.0 | 20.6 |
| Conservatives | 40.7 | 37.9 | 21.4 |
| State Resident 20 years or less | 50.3 | 23.4 | 26.3 |
| State Resident over 20 years | 50.6 | 31.0 | 18.4 |
| Age 18-35 | 48.7 | 33.9 | 17.4 |
| Age 36-60 | 50.2 | 26.4 | 23.4 |
| Age 61-98 | 53.3 | 28.8 | 17.9 |
| High School Dropouts | 53.2 | 24.7 | 22.1 |
| High School Graduates | 53.0 | 27.5 | 19.5 |
| Some College Education | 49.0 | 31.4 | 19.6 |
| College Graduates | 46.6 | 31.6 | 21.8 |
| Under $20,000 Family Income | 69.4 | 19.0 | 11.6 |
| $20-40,000 Family Income | 46.7 | 31.4 | 21.9 |
| Over $40,000 Family Income | 43.2 | 35.2 | 21.6 |
| Male | 49.3 | 30.3 | 20.4 |
| Female | 52.1 | 27.2 | 20.7 |
| 1st Congressional District | 55.2 | 25.8 | 19.0 |
| 2nd Congressional District | 45.4 | 31.4 | 23.2 |
| 3rd Congressional District | 53.4 | 29.1 | 17.5 |
| 4th Congressional District | 41.0 | 46.1 | 12.9 |
| 5th Congressional District | 50.8 | 14.9 | 34.3 |
| Democrats | 65.2 | 16.1 | 18.7 |
| Independents (include leaners) | 63.6 | 18.7 | 17.7 |
| Republicans | 22.5 | 54.3 | 23.2 |
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, GROUP DIFFERENCES
| GORE | BUSH | UNDECIDED | |
| Liberals | 54.8% | 41.2% | 4.0% |
| Moderates | 37.0 | 50.9 | 12.1 |
| Conservatives | 25.6 | 67.2 | 7.2 |
| State Resident 20 years or less | 36.1 | 55.0 | 8.9 |
| State Resident over 20 years | 34.7 | 55.5 | 9.8 |
| Age 18-35 | 35.4 | 60.0 | 4.6 |
| Age 36-60 | 30.4 | 55.4 | 14.2 |
| Age 61-98 | 43.4 | 50.6 | 6.0 |
| High School Dropouts | 45.0 | 45.8 | 9.2 |
| High School Graduates | 41.4 | 48.5 | 10.1 |
| Some College Education | 27.4 | 63.9 | 8.7 |
| College Graduates | 27.8 | 61.7 | 10.5 |
| Under $20,000 Family Income | 55.4 | 34.5 | 10.1 |
| $20-40,000 Family Income | 37.9 | 48.8 | 13.3 |
| Over $40,000 Family Income | 20.2 | 71.5 | 8.3 |
| Male | 24.1 | 64.7 | 11.2 |
| Female | 44.4 | 47.5 | 8.1 |
| 1st Congressional District | 30.5 | 59.3 | 10.2 |
| 2nd Congressional District | 54.1 | 36.2 | 9.7 |
| 3rd Congressional District | 29.0 | 62.6 | 8.4 |
| 4th Congressional District | 36.9 | 56.0 | 7.1 |
| 5th Congressional District | 33.1 | 55.1 | 11.8 |
| Democrats | 67.5 | 24.4 | 8.1 |
| Independents (includes leaners) | 24.5 | 60.4 | 15.1 |
| Republicans | 3.9 | 90.6 | 5.5 |