2002 MISSISSIPPI POLL
The 2002 Mississippi Poll used the CATI (computer-assisted telephone interviewing) system of the Survey Research Unit of the Social Science Research Center at Mississippi State University. As a class project, 20 undergraduate political science students in the Political Analysis class conducted a statewide poll. They interviewed a random sample of 608 adult Mississippi residents from April 1-14, which produced a sample error of 4.1% for the complete sample of voters and nonvoters. The response rate was 50%. The survey was weighted by demographic characteristics based on the 2000 census to ensure that it adequately represented all adults in the state population. A subset of 333 likely general election voters was identified with a sample error of 5.5%, as was a subset of 248 likely voters in the Democratic primary with a sample error of 6.5% (derived from the party identification question, and including weak Republicans).
MOORE LEADS MUSGROVE, MUSGROVE LEADS TUCK IN PRIMARY
"If the Democratic primary for governor was held today, and the candidates were Governor Ronnie Musgrove and Attorney General Mike Moore, who would you vote for? Musgrove or Moore?" (Asked of 248 likely voters in Democratic primary)
Musgrove = 32.2%
Moore = 48.4%
Undecided = 13.1%
Neither = 6.3%
"If the Democratic primary for governor was held today, and the candidates were Governor Ronnie Musgrove and Lieutenant Governor Amy Tuck, who would you vote for? Musgrove or Tuck?" (Asked of 248 likely voters in Democratic primary)
Musgrove = 44.9%
Tuck = 25.5%
Undecided = 19.7%
Neither = 9.9%
MUSGROVE HAS LEAD IN GENERAL ELECTION
"If the gubernatorial election was held today, and the candidates were Democratic Governor Ronnie Musgrove and Republican Haley Barbour, who would you vote for? Musgrove or Barbour? (Asked of 333 likely voters in general election)
Musgrove = 49.0%
Barbour = 28.9%
Undecided/Refused to answer = 22.1%
"If the gubernatorial election was held today, and the candidates were Democratic Governor Ronnie Musgrove and Republican state auditor Phil Bryant, who would you vote for? Musgrove or Bryant? (Asked of 333 likely voters in general election)
Musgrove = 46.8%
Bryant = 28.4%
Undecided/Refused to answer = 24.8%
INCUMBENT BENEFITS FROM EARLY NAME VISIBILITY
Incumbent chief executives benefit from high name visibility. When asked to rate candidates as either "very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate or middle of the road, somewhat conservative, or very conservative," only 17% of the 608 adult Mississippians were unable to rate George W. Bush ideologically, and therefore responded don't know to this question. Only 24% of Mississippians were unable to rate Governor Musgrove's ideology. On the other hand, 38% of adults were unable to rate Lieutenant Governor Tuck's ideology, and 58% were unable to rate Haley Barbour's ideology.
MUSGROVE'S POPULARITY DECLINES, HOWEVER
"I'm going to ask you to rate the job performance of a few political figures and institutions. Rate each of them as excellent, good, fair, or poor. What about?" (Note: asked of likely voters in general election; results from previous governors included)
| Excellent | Good | Fair | Poor | No Opinion | Favorable Rating
(E+G)/
(E+G+F+P) | ||
| Winter
1981 |
12% | 46% | 34% | 6% | 2% | 59% | |
| 1982 | 15% | 43% | 32% | 8% | 2% | 59% | |
| Allain
1984 |
6% | 33% | 44% | 9% | 8% | 42% | |
| 1986 | 10% | 39% | 40% | 11% | 0% | 49% | |
| Mabus 1988 | 14% | 39% | 29% | 4% | 14% | 62% | |
| 1990 | 17% | 31% | 31% | 20% | 1% | 48% | |
| Fordice
1992 |
8% | 36% | 21% | 22% | 13% | 51% | |
| 1994 | 19% | 36% | 32% | 12% | 1% | 56% | |
| 1996 | 17% | 34% | 29% | 16% | 4% | 53% | |
| 1998 | 11% | 44% | 32% | 9% | 4% | 57% | |
| 1999 | 11% | 34% | 36% | 13% | 6% | 48% | |
| Musgrove
2000 |
14% | 39% | 18% | 6% | 23% | 69% | |
| 2002 | 9% | 32% | 35% | 18% | 6% | 44% |
Note: Percentages in first five columns total 100% across each row.
Source (previous years): The New Mississippi: Political and Partisan Attitudes in the 1990s. Available on world wide web at: http://www.ssrc.msstate.edu/Publications/srrs99-1.pdf
MOORE POPULAR AMONG DEMOCRATIC VOTERS
"I'm going to ask you to rate the job performance of a few political figures and institutions. Rate each of them as excellent, good, fair, or poor. What about?" (Note: asked of 248 likely voters in Democratic primary). "Governor Ronnie Musgrove." "Lieutenant Governor Amy Tuck." "Attorney General Mike Moore."
| Excellent | Good | Fair | Poor | No Opinion | |
| Moore | 24% | 40% | 17% | 8% | 11% |
| Musgrove | 10% | 36% | 32% | 14% | 8% |
| Tuck | 10% | 37% | 27% | 6% | 20% |
Note: Percentages total 100% across each row.
PERILS OF EARLY POLLING
"Much can change in the next year and a half before the next election," cautioned Mississippi State University political science professor Stephen D. Shaffer, who directed the poll. "In April 1990 we conducted a gubernatorial general election poll, and Governor Ray Mabus was easily besting two possible Republican opponents. Mabus was beating former GOP gubernatorial nominee Jack Reed by a 55% to 38% margin (with the remainder undecided), and Mabus was easily besting Republican state auditor Pete Johnson by a 62% to 26% margin. Yet Mabus was defeated for re-election by Kirk Fordice," pointed out Shaffer.
The 1990 press release is available on the world wide web at:
http://sds17.pspa.msstate.edu/poll/PressRelease90.html
LEGISLATURE'S POPULARITY DIPS SLIGHTLY
"I'm going to ask you to rate the job performance of a few political figures and institutions. Rate each of them as excellent, good, fair, or poor. What about the Mississippi state legislature?" (Asked of entire sample)
| Excellent | Good | Fair | Poor | No Opinion | Favorable Rating (E+G) - (P) | ||
| 1981 | 3% | 36% | 46% | 8% | 7% | +31 | |
| 1982 | 5% | 24% | 43% | 15% | 13% | +14 | |
| 1984 | 3% | 25% | 51% | 11% | 10% | +17 | |
| 1986 | 2% | 27% | 41% | 17% | 13% | +12 | |
| 1988 | 4% | 29% | 46% | 12% | 9% | +21 | |
| 1990 | 2% | 23% | 50% | 16% | 9% | +9 | |
| 1992 | 2% | 16% | 44% | 29% | 9% | -11 | |
| 1994 | 2% | 22% | 45% | 22% | 9% | +2 | |
| 1996 | 5% | 29% | 44% | 12% | 10% | +22 | |
| 1998 | 5% | 28% | 45% | 9% | 13% | +24 | |
| 1999 | 5% | 35% | 39% | 8% | 13% | +32 | |
| 2000 | 3% | 34% | 44% | 9% | 10% | +28 | |
| 2002 | 4% | 31% | 38% | 15% | 12% | +20 |
Note: Percentages in first five columns total 100% across each row. In calculating the Favorable Rating, "fair" is an ambiguous category when rating an institution, so it is excluded from the analysis.
Source (previous years): The New Mississippi: Political and Partisan Attitudes in the 1990s.
Available on world wide web at: http://www.ssrc.msstate.edu/Publications/srrs99-1.pdf