2004 MISSISSIPPI POLL (Analysis Expanded, May 12, 2004, and May 27, 2004; disclaimer regarding Minor column added, July 10, 2004; link to more recent poll results added, October 26, 2004)

 

The 2004 Mississippi Poll used the CATI (computer-assisted telephone interviewing) system of the Survey Research Unit of the Social Science Research Center at Mississippi State University. As a class project, 21 undergraduate political science students in the Political Analysis class conducted a statewide poll. The professor of the class and Director of the Mississippi Poll is Dr. Stephen D. Shaffer of the MSU Political Science Department. They interviewed a random sample of 523 adult Mississippi residents from April 5-21, 2004, which produced a sample error of 4.4% for the complete sample of voters and nonvoters. The response rate was 48%. The survey was weighted by demographic characteristics based on the 2000 census to ensure that it adequately represented all adults in the state population. A subset of 300 likely general election voters was identified with a sample error of 5.8%. Some of the results are compared to previous years of the Mississippi Poll, as this class project has existed since 1981. Additional information about public opinion in Mississippi in previous years, based on this Mississippi Poll project, is available on Shaffer’s website: http://sds17.pspa.msstate.edu/poll/poll.html 

Note: to be as efficient as possible, results from this and Mississippi Polls in future years will now be posted on the above website rather than distributed in any other way. Anyone interested in interpretations of the complexity of public opinion in modern day Mississippi are encouraged to consult the website above, as well as talk with MSU political science majors who have completed classes in American Politics. Questions about the poll can be directed to Dr. Shaffer by e-mail at the following address: kauai@ps.msstate.edu

The exact wording of all of the questions in the 2004 Mississippi Poll is on the web at: http://sds17.pspa.msstate.edu/poll/mspoll2004.html

Naturally, all questions asked are fairly general, in order to try to measure the views of average citizens who typically are not as knowledgeable of public affairs issues as are elected officials. Therefore, poll results are not always directly comparable to the controversies facing elected officials. In any event, the history of the Mississippi Poll does provide an interesting and informative insight into the “average Mississippian,” and raises many thought-provoking questions for our students and political observers.

 

BUSH HAS EARLY LEAD IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Question Wording: "If the presidential election was held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican, whom would you vote for? Kerry or Bush? (Asked of 300 likely voters in general election)

Kerry         = 30.0%

Bush          =  61.2%

Undecided   =  8.8%

Note on more recent poll, done by another organization. A mid-September 2004 poll has Bush with only a 9 point lead in Mississippi. Click here for info about it. The most recent poll, a statewide poll of high school students, shows Bush with only a 1 point lead.

BUSH AIDED BY INITIAL TURNOUT ADVANTAGE

When likely non-voters are included with likely voters, Bush’s advantage narrows (426 voters and nonvoters were polled with a 4.9% sample error margin):

Kerry         =   34.2%

Bush          =    55.5%

Undecided   =  10.3%

 

KERRY VIEWED AS MORE LIBERAL THAN AVERAGE MISSISSIPPIAN

Asked of 523 adult Mississippi residents: "Please label the following political figures as very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate or middle of the road, somewhat conservative, or very conservative... President George W. Bush, Democratic Presidential Candidate John Kerry, Governor Haley Barbour, and Lieutenant Governor Amy Tuck."

The last row indicates voters' responses to the following question: "What about your political beliefs? Do you consider yourself: very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate or middle of the road, somewhat conservative, or very conservative?"

 

	VERY LIBERAL	SOMEWHAT LIBERAL	MODERATE	SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE	VERY CONSERVATIVE	DON’T KNOW
John Kerry	25%	23%	17%	7%	5%	23%
George W. Bush Jr.	7%	13%	15%	31%	18%	16%
Haley Barbour	6%	10%	20%	25%	14%	25%
Amy Tuck	6%	11%	24%	22%	10%	27%
Residents' Own Views	4%	12%	28%	27%	21%	8%

Note: Percentages total 100% across each row.

 

BARBOUR’S POPULARITY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS REPUBLICAN GOVERNOR

"I'm going to ask you to rate the job performance of a few political figures and institutions. Rate each of them as excellent, good, fair, or poor. What about?" (Note: asked of 300 likely voters; results from previous governors included)

	Excellent	Good	Fair	Poor	No Opinion		Favorable Rating (E+G)/ (E+G+F+P)
Winter 1981	12%	46%	34%	6%	2%		59%
1982	15%	43%	32%	8%	2%		59%
Allain 1984	6%	33%	44%	9%	8%		42%
1986	10%	39%	40%	11%	0%		49%
Mabus   1988	14%	39%	29%	4%	14%		62%
1990	17%	31%	31%	20%	1%		48%
Fordice 1992	8%	36%	21%	22%	13%		51%
1994	19%	36%	32%	12%	1%		56%
1996	17%	34%	29%	16%	4%		53%
1998	11%	44%	32%	9%	4%		57%
1999	11%	34%	36%	13%	6%		48%
Musgrove 2000	14%	39%	18%	6%	23%		69%
2002	9%	32%	35%	18%	6%		44%
Barbour   2004	12%	28%	25%	12%	23%		52%

Note: Percentages in first five columns total 100% across each row.

Source (previous years): The New Mississippi: Political and Partisan Attitudes in the 1990s. Available on world wide web at: http://www.ssrc.msstate.edu/Publications/srrs99-1.pdf

LEGISLATURE'S POPULARITY AT HISTORIC AVERAGE

 

"I'm going to ask you to rate the job performance of a few political figures and institutions. Rate each of them as excellent, good, fair, or poor. What about the Mississippi state legislature?" (Asked of entire sample)

	Excellent	Good	Fair	Poor	No Opinion		Favorable Rating (E+G) - (P)
1981	3%	36%	46%	8%	7%		+31
1982	5%	24%	43%	15%	13%		+14
1984	3%	25%	51%	11%	10%		+17
1986	2%	27%	41%	17%	13%		+12
1988	4%	29%	46%	12%	9%		+21
1990	2%	23%	50%	16%	9%		+9
1992	2%	16%	44%	29%	9%		-11
1994	2%	22%	45%	22%	9%		+2
1996	5%	29%	44%	12%	10%		+22
1998	5%	28%	45%	9%	13%		+24
1999	5%	35%	39%	8%	13%		+32
2000	3%	34%	44%	9%	10%		+28
2002	4%	31%	38%	15%	12%		+20
2004	4%	30%	43%	14%	9%		+20

Note: Percentages in first five columns total 100% across each row. In calculating the Favorable Rating, "fair" is an ambiguous category when rating an institution, so it is excluded from the analysis.

Source (previous years): The New Mississippi: Political and Partisan Attitudes in the 1990s.

Available on world wide web at: http://www.ssrc.msstate.edu/Publications/srrs99-1.pdf

 

GENERAL TRUST IN PUBLIC OFFICIALS DIPS

Question Wording (asked of entire sample): “How much of the time do you think you can trust public officials in Mississippi to do what is right—almost always, most of the time, only some of the time, or rarely?”

YEAR	ALWAYS	MOST OF TIME	SOME OF TIME	RARELY	NO OPINION	POSITIVITY- (always+most of time) -(rarely)
1981	8%	39%	42%	8%	3%	+39
1990	5	27	49	17	2	+15
1992	2	14	57	26	1	-10
1994	4	25	44	25	1	+4
1996	5	26	47	20	2	+11
1998	6	30	46	14	4	+22
1999	5	38	40	13	4	+30
2000	5	32	46	15	2	+22
2002	6	35	46	12	1	+29
2004	3	29	45	22	1	+10

 

A HISTORICALLY DEMOCRATIC STATE IS TODAY VERY DIVIDED IN PARTISANSHIP

Question wording (asked of entire sample): “Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Democrat, Republican, Independent, or what?” (Independents were asked: “Do you think of yourself as closer to the Democratic party or to the Republican party?”) Those leaning towards either party were considered identifiers of that party.

YEAR	DEMOCRATS	INDEPENDENTS	REPUBLICANS	PARTY ADVANTAGE
1981	61%	7%	32%	29D
1982	61%	14%	25%	36D
1984	56%	15%	29%	27D
1986	54%	10%	36%	18D
1988	53%	13%	34%	19D
1990	56%	8%	36%	20D
1992	47%	13%	40%	7D
1994	47%	12%	41%	6D
1996	48%	10%	42%	6D
1998	47%	11%	42%	5D
1999	51%	10%	39%	12D
2000	54%	6%	40%	14D
2002	45%	8%	47%	2R
2004	43%	11%	46%	3R

Note: Percentages in columns 2, 3, and 4 total 100% across each row. Values in the last column indicate the Democratic or Republican advantage in each year, and is the difference in percentages between the two parties.

Source (previous years): The New Mississippi: Political and Partisan Attitudes in the 1990s. Available on world wide web at: http://www.ssrc.msstate.edu/Publications/srrs99-1.pdf

 

SUPPORT FOR SEX EQUALITY LEVELS OFF

Asked of entire sample: “Do you agree or disagree with the following statement—Women should take care of running their homes and leave running the country up to men?” Those agreeing with this statement are classified as “Against Equal Rights for women” and those disagreeing with the statement are classified as “For Equal Rights”.

YEAR	AGAINST EQUAL RIGHTS	FOR EQUAL RIGHTS	NO OPINION
1984	41%	53%	6%
1986	39	56	5
1988	39	55	6
1990	34	61	5
1994	24	70	6
1996	28	68	4
1998	25	70	5
1999	22	73	5
2004	25	69	6

 

QUALITY OF LIFE IS RATED POSITIVELY, BUT FLUCTUATING

Asked of entire sample: “Overall, how would you rate Mississippi as a place to live—excellent, good, fair, or poor?”

YEAR	EXCELLENT	GOOD	FAIR	POOR	POSITIVE: EXCELLENT PLUS GOOD
1981	37%	40%	18%	5%	+77
1986	29%	38%	26%	7%	+67
1992	20%	46%	25%	9%	+66
1994	27%	43%	24%	6%	+70
1996	26%	50%	21%	3%	+76
1998	30%	50%	18%	2%	+80
1999	28%	45%	23%	4%	+73
2000	28%	44%	24%	4%	+72
2002	26%	48%	20%	6%	+74
2004	28%	41%	25%	6%	+69

Note: Percentages in columns 2 thru 5 total 100% across each row. The last column combines the most positive responses, those rating Mississippi’s quality of life as excellent or good. Some results from previous years are available at: http://www.ssrc.msstate.edu/Publications/srrs99-1.pdf

 

FINANCIAL SATISFACTION AT HISTORIC AVERAGE

Asked of entire sample: “We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. So far as you and your family are concerned, would you say that you are pretty well satisfied with your present financial situation, more or less satisfied, or not satisfied at all?”

YEAR	Pretty Well Satisfied	More or Less Satisfied	Not Satisfied At All	No Opinion	Satisfaction Level- (Pretty Well Sat. – Not Satisfied)
1984	39%	41%	19%	1%	+20
1986	32	47	21	0	+11
1988	38	43	18	1	+20
1990	35	46	18	1	+17
1992	29	41	30	0	-1
1994	36	41	22	1	+14
1996	43	37	20	0	+23
1998	41	40	19	0	+22
2004	39	38	23	0	+16

 

GEOGRAPHIC MOBILITY INCREASES SLIGHTLY

Asked of entire sample: “How likely do you think it will be that you will be living in your community five years from now? Definitely no, probably no, probably yes, or definitely yes?”

YEAR	DEFINITELY NO	PROBABLY NO	PROBABLY YES	DEFINITELY YES	DON’T KNOW	YES (Definite+Probably)
1990	6%	12%	38%	40%	4%	+78
1992	6	11	34	47	2	+81
1994	6	11	35	47	1	+82
1996	5	14	33	46	2	+79
1998	6	12	34	48	0	+82
2004	11	14	31	42	2	+73

 

MISSISSIPPIANS VALUE STATE PROGRAMS

Asked of 523 adult Mississippi residents: "Now I'm going to ask you about some issues facing state and local government in Mississippi. As you know, most of the money government spends comes from the taxes you and others pay. For each of the following, please tell me whether you think state and local government in Mississippi should be spending more, less, or about the same as now." (Note: In this table, programs are ranked by the public’s priority, based on the calculation for each program of % saying spend more minus the % saying spend less.)

STATE PROGRAM	SPEND MORE	SPEND THE SAME	SPEND LESS	NO OPINION
Public Grade Schools and  High Schools	83%	14%	2%	1%
Health Care and Hospitals	72	21	5	2
Public Colleges and Universities	63	28	5	4
Streets and Highways	61	33	5	1
Industrial Growth and Development	63	26	7	4
Programs for the Poor	63	24	10	3
Police Forces	58	34	7	1
Child Day Care Facilities	54	34	9	3
Encouraging Tourism	48	34	15	3
Environmental Programs	40	43	12	5

Note: Percentages total 100% across each row. Some results from previous years are available at: http://www.ssrc.msstate.edu/Publications/srrs99-1.pdf

 

TAX INCREASE FAVORED OVER CUTTING ELEMENTARY, SECONDARY, OR HIGHER EDUCATION

Asked of 523 adult Mississippi residents: "Currently, Mississippi state government faces financial problems, and the legislature will have to raise taxes or reduce spending on public elementary, secondary, and higher education. What would you favor—raising taxes or reducing education spending?"

Cut Education =                                                                 18%

Raise Taxes =                                                                     67%

Do Both/ Mixed Response (volunteered by respondent) =   10%

No Opinion =                                                                       5%

 

TAX INCREASE SENTIMENT EVEN GREATER AMONG LIKELY VOTERS

Asked of 300 likely voters: "Currently, Mississippi state government faces financial problems, and the legislature will have to raise taxes or reduce spending on public elementary, secondary, and higher education. What would you favor—raising taxes or reducing education spending?"

Cut Education =                                                                 15%

Raise Taxes =                                                                     69%

Do Both/ Mixed Response (volunteered by respondent) =   11%

No Opinion =                                                                       5%

Note: See the 1992 press release for the only previous time that this question was asked in a similar wording: http://sds17.pspa.msstate.edu/poll/PressRelease92.html