Warning: these are the preliminary notes for this class. The professor reserves the right to make final additions and deletions at any time up to one day before the test.

Note to Off-campus students: in addition to these class notes and required readings and course requirements, you are also required to read all websites that this site is linked to (in other words, when the notes say "click here," make sure you fully read every linked site). Note that under Campaign Organization: Staffers, you are responsible for reading every candidate's website. On-campus students are also responsible for this material, though this material will be reviewed in class.

PUBLIC OPINION- DOMESTIC ECONOMICS

Americans are progressive on domestic economics issues, placing a high priority on issues that affect their everyday lives, and desiring more government spending to deal with those problems.

High priority items are domestic economic issues, along with social issues such as crime. A May 1998 Gallup Poll asked public nationally about the most important problems facing the country today? Those issues were:
Economics, including taxes, deficit, unemployment, jobs, trade, inflation, general economic issues = 25%
Crime and violence = 20%
Moral issues, ethics, family decline = 16%
Education = 13%
Drugs = 12%
Poverty and homelessness = 10%
Welfare = 8%
Medicare and Social Security = 8%
Health Care = 6%

Low priority items included many backed by partisan and ideological politicians: Abortion - 1%; guns and gun control - 1%; AIDS - 1%. A 1997 Gallup Poll found that other minor issues were: term limits, campaign finance reform, and capital gains tax cut.

Most Americans also wish for government to spend more on solving domestic problems. The 1996 General Social Survey poll asked how much money the government should spend in each area, and were cautioned that if they said much more a tax increase might be required:
Education = 77% say spend more
Health = 68% more
Police = 58% more
Retirement Benefits = 51% more
Environment = 50% more

A 1992-93 General Social Survey poll found similar issues were important, as well as others not analyzed in 1996, but tax increase language was left out thereby inflating support:
Aid to homeless- 73%
Aid to college students- 61%

Less important issues in the 1996 poll were:
Spending on unemployment, where 50% said spend the same as now, 28% said spend more, and 22% said spend less.
Military and defense spending, where 46% said spend same, 33% less, and 21% more.

A January 1998 Gallup Poll also showed that Americans preferred spending the budget surplus on some economic issues, instead of cutting taxes. The percentage rating programs as high or top priorities were:
strengthening Social Security for the long term = 85%
strengthening Medicare for the long term = 83%
reducing the national Debt = 79%
increasing federal funds for repairing and building Public Schools = 75%
providing tax credits to parents for Child Care tied with cutting federal income taxes for most Americans = 63%
Issues less important than a tax cut were reducing pollution and increasing highway construction.

The media and vocal groups can also increase public support for spending programs. 62% believe that more should be spent on AIDS research.

How an issue is framed and a question is phrased affect how people respond to it. Regarding poverty, welfare opponents use the unpopular term "welfare," and only 17% of public wishes to spend more on "welfare." Welfare supporters talk about the "truly needy" and people who are poor through no fault of their own, and 65% of public wishes to spend more on "assistance to the poor."

Public support for spending is so great that even a conservative, traditionalistic state like Mississippi has a public backing more state spending. The Mississippi Poll found the following percentages of the state public backing increased state spending from 1981-1998:
Public elementary-secondary education- Over 70%, recently over 80%
Health care and hospitals- About 70%
Public colleges and universities- Over 60%
Streets and highways- Over 60%
Police forces- Over 60%
Child day care facilities- High 50's
Programs for the poor- High 50's
Industrial growth and development- Mid 50's, down from 70% in early 1980s
Environmental programs- Over 40%
Encouraging tourism- Over 40%
Jail and prison facilities- Over 40%

Social Security reform shows how public is unwilling to make sacrifices (January 1998 Gallup Poll):
Only reform supported (by 66%) is allowing individuals to invest a portion of their Social Security savings in the stock market.
62% oppose raising employer and employee social security taxes.
59% oppose allowing government to invest part of social security trust fund in the stock market.
70% oppose raising the social security retirement age to 70.
85% oppose reducing social security benefits.

Americans view health care from self-interest perspective.

Regarding changes in Medicare programs, Gallup poll (June 1997) finds that 64% oppose raising eligibility age from 65 to 67, but 70% favor making the wealthier pay more than the lower income.

A July 1994 Gallup Poll found that: 77% back universal system guaranteeing everyone private health insurance that can "never be taken away"- 77%.
Same survey found public backed as most important benefits in a health care plan: 1) Catastrophic illness coverage; 2) Nursing home care; 3) Prescription drugs.
52% said employers should pay all or most of cost.
59% said don't include abortion coverage.

Why the Clinton health plan died in Congress. Gallup Polls showed most Americans viewed it as: 1) Benefitting the poor primarily; 2) Giving people fewer doctors and medical choices; 3) Quality of health care would remain the same or decline; 4) Increase your own health care costs, and costing government more than expected; 5) Entailing too much government involvement in your health care. 40% of public felt they'd be worse off with plan, and 37% no difference, and only 19% better off.

Welfare Reform- ideologically diverse ways to deal with problem (USA Today and Gallup, 1994):
Job training is backed by over 90%
Child care for parents seeking jobs- 89%
Pay commuting costs- 66%
Five year limit for adults- 62%
Two-year cutoff for those without jobs- 63%
No aid for immigrants here less than 5 years- 56%
Government paid jobs- 57%
Oppose ending payments to unmarried mothers- 56%
Oppose ending pay to kids of unmarried moms- 60%
Give children separate benefits- 78%

Political unpopularity of welfare program due to 68% believing that "most" people on welfare are "taking advantage of the system" rather than "genuinely in need of help." While only 18% in 1972 wanted to reduce welfare spending, by 1994 that figure was 44%.

Balanced Budget amendment is backed by 74% of public. When asked what to cut, over 60% said arts funding, welfare, and food stamps. A bare majority said defense. Over 70% refused to cut such expensive programs as medicare and social security; over 60% refused to cut police grants, school lunch, medicaid, and college loans.

One tool to reign in spending backed by public is the line item veto, where about 65% have backed it since 1975.

Labor issues.
About 60% of Americans approve of concept of labor unions. Same in Mississippi.
Minimum wage increase backed by 77% in Feb. 1995 Gallup Poll.

Term limits backed by most Americans nationally.
But remember issue is a low priority one.
People back term limits due to rising public cynicism with government.
Cynicism rose steadily from 1960 Eisenhower-Kennedy era until 1980, then fell under Reagan's presidency, and rose once more under Bush-Clinton.
Public divided when reminded that they can't reelect someone doing a "good job." 74% of Mississippians backed a two-term limit of state legislators in 1992; when reminded about inability to reelect someone doing a good job, only 59% backed term limits in 1994 and 57% opposed it in 1996.

Campaign Finance is a low priority item.
Campaign contributions limits are backed by majorities: business limits; labor unions; individuals; candidate self-contribution.
Public backs free air time being provided.
Public opposed public financing of elections paid for by tax increase.
Also opposes prohibiting television ads or dropping all government restrictions on campaigns.

PUBLIC OPINION- CRIME

Crime is a top priority to the public.

People are so frustrated over crime that in a February 1993 Gallup Poll: 64% agreed that criminal defendants should be required to prove their innocence; 57% disagreed that it is better to let some guilty people go free than to risk convicting an innocent person. 70% believe that the criminal justice system makes it too hard for the police and prosecutors to convict people accused of crimes (African-Americans are split 50-50, though).

People respect police and believe in respect for authority figures. 73% believe that police testify truthfully, and 90% believe that obedience and respect for authority should be the most important virtues taught children.

Death penalty for murder is supported by 77% of Americans nationally in June 1995. Even if one out of one hundred people sentenced to death were innocent, 74% of those backing the death penalty still back it. In Mississippi Poll in 1986, 74% backed it. Support nationally rose above 60% in 1976, then rose above 70% in 1985. Even among non-whites, 56% back the death penalty while 30% oppose it.

Question wording affects death penalty support. When given two options instead of one, 61% back the death penalty and 29% back life in prison without parole (August 1997 Gallup Poll). In Mississippi Poll in 1996, when given three options, 56% backed death penalty, 42% life in prison without parole, and 2% a shorter jail term.

Rising support for death penalty is because of rise in actual violent crime rate since 1960, and rising percent of people who think that the courts are too lenient on criminals.

Public wishes to reduce crime rate regardless of ideological direction of policy. Gallup Poll results showing majorities back following policies:

Conservative policies: 1) Harder to get bail for those accused of murder and rape;
2) More severe sentences for all crimes;
3) Tax increase or federal money for more police on the streets;
4) Making parole more difficult for violent crimes like murder and rape;
5) Three strikes and you're out for serious felonies;
6) Community notification when sex offenders are released;
7) Death penalty for some serious crimes other than murder;
8) Death penalty despite statistical discrimination against minorities;
9) Limit death penalty appeals.

Liberal policies:
1) Tougher gun control laws;
2) Barring under 18 from buying guns;
3) Barring criminals from buying handguns;
4) Brady Bill, 5 day waiting period to check on felony records;
5) Ban semi-automatic assault rifles;
6) Ban cheap handguns;
7) For social programs for low income children, such as midnight basketball.

PUBLIC OPINION- CIVIL LIBERTY ISSUES

Average Americans have ideologically mixed opinions on these issues as well.

Americans are conservative towards legalized drugs. 77% oppose legalization of marijuana. Examples of George McGovern and Jocelyn Elders.

Americans are also conservative on school prayer. 89% believe that prayer should be allowed in the public schools. 71% in July 1995 Gallup poll even supported a constitutional amendment. Yet when asked whether prayer should be solely Christian, 73% favored permitting all major religions, including Jewish, Muslim, and Hindu. Also, 70% of people preferred a moment of silence or silent prayer compared to a spoken prayer.

Americans are conservative on bilingual education. Over 60% in a May 1998 Gallup Poll backed immersion, which is teaching non-English speaking students all of their subjects in English, while giving them intensive training in how to read and speak English. Only one-third backed bilingual education, which is teaching them their core subjects in their native language, while providing them gradual training in English.

Americans are divided on the issue of abortion. Nationally, only 22% wish it was legal in all circumstances, 15% illegal in all circumstances, and 61% legal only under certain circumstances.

Attitude depends on circumstances. Over 75% back legal abortions for rape, incest, life or health (even mental) of mother endangered, or defective fetus. Only 45% back legal abortions for single women wishing to remain single, for those who cannot afford children, or for married women who don't want more children.

Majorities back restrictions on abortions:
1) Requiring doctors to inform patients about alternatives to abortion;
2) 24 hour waiting period;
3) Requiring husband to be notified;
4) Parental consent for those under 18;
5) Partial birth abortion ban.

Sex education in schools is backed by 88% of Americans.

Pornography- 58% of adults are against ban on pornography for adults. Most back ban for minors.

Gay rights- people are ambivalent on this issue. Most people are against job discrimination against gays, such as in medicine and sales people. But people are divided on whether gays should be permitted to be hired as clergy, elementary teachers, and high school teachers.

Public also divided over ending gay ban in armed forces. A majority expressed concern over AIDS in military, and shared living quarters. A majority backed Clinton's compromise (58%), Don't Ask, Don't Tell Plan.

Most Americans do personally believe that "homosexual behavior is morally wrong." 59% say it is morally wrong, while 35% say it "is not morally wrong," with 6% having no opinion. Older generation was most offended by it, while those under 30 were evenly divided on the morality of homosexual behavior.
Why homosexuality exists: about half say it is upbringing or environment, while one-third says it is something a person is born with.

Assisted suicide is backed by a majority of Americans. A June 1998 Gallup poll confirmed 1997 poll results. When asked, "when a person has a disease that cannot be cured and is living in severe pain, do you think doctors should be allowed by law to assist the patient to commit suicide if the patient requests it," 59% said yes while 39% said no.

PUBLIC OPINION- RACE

Increased white liberalization over time. 90% of whites back school integration, and 80% back concept of integrated neighborhoods. 93% would be willing to vote for a black for President.

Affirmative Action for minorities and women- Mend, Don't End. (USA Today Poll, March 1995)

Over 70% of whites back: 1) Outreach, identification, and encouraging blacks to apply for jobs; 2) Job training programs to improve qualifications to get better jobs; 3) Special educational programs to make them better qualified for college.

Over 60% of whites oppose: 1) College scholarships available for only women and minorities; 2) Quotas for jobs or college admissions; 3) Favoring a less qualified minority over a white in a business with few minority workers.

Not a salient issue to many whites. Only 12% of whites say they lost a job that went to a minority; only 8% were passed over for promotion that went to minority. Issue is more salient to minorities, where 32% believe they lost a job or promotion because of racial discrimination.

African-Americans are concerned over racial discrimination. 66% of blacks believe that they do not have as good a chance as whites in their community to get a job that they are qualified for; 70% back new civil rights laws to reduce racial discrimination. O.J. Simpson verdict- 54% of blacks believe that the American justice system is biased against blacks, and 68% see a problem of racism among police officers.

Has America given up on integration?

In a 1989 Gallup Poll, Americans felt enough attention had been provided to the civil rights of African Americans. Americans were most concerned over the elderly, disabled and handicapped people, and to some degree Asian-Americans, women, Hispanics, AIDS victims, and Jews.

48% of all Americans (and 60% of blacks) prefer increased funding and resources for minorities schools, while only 32% endorse stepping up efforts to integrate the two races in the public schools. Example- Ayers case. Generation gap among blacks: plurality over age 50 back more integration, while 73% of blacks under 50 back more minority funding.

Preferred terminology among African-Americans.

A July 1995 Gallup Poll found that 58% of blacks said it didn't matter, while 17% preferred the term "African-American" and 17% preferred the term "black".

PUBLIC OPINION- FOREIGN POLICY

Americans are basically internationalist, with 65% saying our country should "take an active part in world affairs." Only about 30% say we should "stay out of world affairs." In Mississippi the isolationist sentiment is higher, though responses are affected by using an agree-disagree item that only lists the isolationist option.

Defense spending preferences are influenced by external events. Vietnam era of early 1970s saw cynicism towards war and military causing desire for spending cuts. Iran and Afghanistan crises in 1980 and perception of American weakness caused desire for more spending. Since 1984 support for defense spending has declined, as America has gotten stronger and communism has died.

If you get into a war, win it. Most Americans rated World War 2 and Persian Gulf Wars as "just wars," and FDR was reelected in 1944 and Bush's popularity rose to 90%. But most Americans viewed our Vietnam troop involvement as a mistake, and people were divided over Korea as well. Presidents Truman and Johnson's popularity declined, and both refrained from seeking reelection.

Immigration.

July 1993 Gallup Poll found 65% of Americans felt number of immigrants should be decreased. Concerns over diversity threatening American culture, and cost of government education and medical benefits for immigrants. Americans especially thought that there was too much immigration from Arab countries, Latin America, and Asian countries; most backed European immigration, and were divided towards Africa.

Solutions: majorities backed better border patrols and a national identification card. Most opposed cutting off schools and hospitals for illegal immigrants, or erecting a wall along Mexican border.

July 1995, USA Today poll of adult immigrants. Most prefer USA to their homeland in terms of better job opportunities, more political freedom, and fair laws. Yet most immigrants rated their homelands higher in terms of safety from crime, and moral values.

THE ACTORS: CANDIDATES

Richard Fenno's book Homestyle talks about how Congress members engage in non-stop campaigning.

Perceptions of constituency: 1) Geographic; 2) Re-Election- redistricting, fight of my life memory, worry over possible opponents, uncertain what works; 3) Primary constituency, strongest supporters, provide money and workers; 4) Intimates- most relaxed with.

Presentation of Self is important. Building Trust is key, thru Personal Contact. Demonstrate Qualifications for job, Identification (I am One of You), Empathy (I understand and care).

Different presentation styles: 1) Person to Person- Dowdy; 2) Popular Local Boy- Tuck; 3) Issue Articulation- open meetings, spend time at home- Bowen; 4) Servicing the District- many trips home, public appearances- Whitten; 5) Political Leader- African-American churches important- Thompson.

Other important points.
Appear before unfriendly groups to reduce intensity of opposition. Republicans should appear before NAACP.

People want Access to congressperson, so important to speak before community groups. Two-step Flow of influence expands impact.

Explaining Washington Activity.
I have power, key committee assignments, to be effective for you.

Building Trust: have overall policy record consistent with district; be able to explain one's vote when inconsistent with district; if have trust, then people give you voting leeway.

Deal with public cynicism by running against Congress, "I'm not like the rest" argument.

Congressional Careers: Expansionism; Protectionism.
Freshmen are expansionist, visit district often. Senior members have seniority on committees, Washington power, so make fewer trips home.

CANDIDATE CHARACTERISTICS

Age. U.S. House: about two-thirds are between 40 and 60 years of age, with more between 40-50 than between 50-60.
Mississippi Congressional ages are: Wicker- 48; Thompson- 51; Pickering- 36; Shows- 52; Taylor- 46.
U.S. Senate: modal category is 50-60, next largest category is 60-70, and about one-third are from 40-50 or 70-80. Only 10% of House members and 1% of Senators are under 40.
Mississippi Senators ages are: Cochran- 62; Lott- 58.

In state legislature, similar middle aged bias but more openness to the young. Scott Ross, Amy Tuck examples. Our own legislators: Glenn Hamilton is 44; Rob Roberson is 31. Hamilton was born in Starkville, supports MSU, and is a member of various civic groups. Roberson, born in Greenville, attended MSU, started a Starkville business, and became an alderman there.

White Male dominance. About 10% of Congress are women, even fewer African-Americans. In Mississippi state legislature, about 25% are black due to state population and Voting Rights Act. Women are less numerous than in Congress. Gandy only exception in statewide office. Thompson (and his predecessor Espy) is only exception in Congress.

Occupation. Major one is law, about half of U.S. Senators are lawyers, and nearly 40% of House members. Cochran and Lott are both lawyers who also got undergraduate degrees at Ole Miss. Wicker is also a lawyer. Business and banking is next largest category. Taylor was a sales representative. Rising number of public service/politician category. Thompson has served in public office since 1969, Shows since 1976; Pickering worked for USDA and Lott. Education has about 10%. Thompson and Shows have both been teachers. Journalism and agriculture each provide less than 10% of members.

In Mississippi state legislature, business is largest category with lawyers second; professionals come in third, and farmers have sunk to 10%. Locally, Roberson is a businessman, and Hamilton a farmer.

Seniority. Median is about ten years in each congressional chamber. Those with over 20 years of service comprise only about 10% of U.S. House and 20% of U.S. Senate. In Mississippi, Cochran has most seniority, elected to senate in 1978; Lott was elected to senate in 1988, and Taylor was elected to House in 1989. All others have been elected in the 1990s.

In Mississippi state legislature, seniority has increased. In 1950s over half of lawmakers were in first term; by 1980s, only 25%; in 1995, about one-sixth. However, rise of two party system is increasing competition, as candidates must first fight for party nomination, then against other party in general election. Yet seniority is still strong, and in 1999 the number of GOP candidates decreased compared to 1995. Locally, both legislators are first-termers, with Hamilton elected in 1995 after Tuck ran for Secretary of State, and Roberson replacing Cecil Simmons in 1999.

Nativeness. In state legislature, it pays to be born in Mississipppi. Over 80% have been born in the state. Nativeness is less important in rapidly growing states like Florida or California, where many people are in-migrants. Only current exceptions are Gene Taylor, born in New Orleans, who represents the more cosmopolitan Gulf Coast, and Governor Kirk Fordice who was born in Memphis.

Ideology. In Congress and state legislature, it depends on the district. Majority black districts tend to elect liberal African-Americans (Mike Espy, Bennie Thompson). Majority white districts in South tend to elect conservative Republicans (Wicker, Pickering) or moderate to conservative Democrats (Gene Taylor, Ronnie Shows). The Mississippi state legislature has three major factions with some ideological variation in each: African-American liberal Democrats; conservative Republicans; moderate white Democrats.

State legislative candidates are often homegrown, as shown with our own legislators. 1)Amy Tuck. 2) Republican Senator Glenn Hamilton was born in Starkville, attended Maben High School, East Mississippi Community College. Member of farm bureau and Starkville Chamber of Commerce, he's backed MSU's Bulldog Club and Quarterback Club. Was elected in an open seat after Amy Tuck ran for higher office. Got key campaign backing of MSU College Republicans after talking to their membership. Serves on committees such as agriculture and colleges. 3)former lawmaker, Democrat Cecil Simmons from Maben was born in Macon, attended Noxubee County High, MSU, MC Law School. Entomologist, Farm Bureau, alumni association member. Representative Rob Roberson is owner of a local restaurant and catering service, serves as an alderman, was an MSU graduate.

Regarding Congress, it generally pays to have previous political experience and some connections. Wicker was a state senator, father was a Democratic judge, and he was named chair of GOP freshman class. Thompson had city and county experience, and is a civil rights leader. Pickering has a father who was state party chair, and he worked for Trent Lott and Agriculture Dept. Ronnie Shows served as circuit clerk, state legislator, and highway commissioner for 23 years. Gene Taylor was a city councilman and state senator. Trent Lott had worked for his Democratic House member, served in House 1972-1988, won Senate. Thad Cochran was a lawyer elected to House in 1972 in Nixon landslide year, served in House from 1972-78, Senate election.

Note state hometown connections. Hometowns: Cochran- Pontotoc; Lott- Grenada County; Wicker- Pontotoc; Thompson- Bolton; Pickering- Laurel; Shows- Moselle. Only Gene Taylor is non-state, New Orleans, but he attended Southern Mississippi, Gulf Park for two years, and coast is a growing area.

It pays to find an ideologically-partisan consistent area to run in, and run in a politically favorable year.

African-American Bennie Thompson represents a majority black district. The four white House members represent majority white districts, and are conservative or (if Democrats) are moderate conservative.

Republicans Cochran and Lott were both elected to U.S. House in 1972 when Nixon was carrying Mississippi with 80% of the vote. Cochran was elected to Senate in 1978 in midterm Carter election, and Lott in 1988 during Bush victory. Wicker won in 1994 GOP midterm victory, and Pickering in 1996 Dole win in Mississippi. Shows won in 1998 midterm year of public reaction against GOP impeachment of Clinton.

Gene Taylor's maverick conservative philosophy is consistent with d istrict, and he repudiates his national party. If Southern white Democrat, run away from your national party, call yourself a "Mississippi Democrat", or don't even mention your party. Run as an individual.

Don't run against an incumbent in Congress. Their funding advantage is usually huge. Wicker's 1996 and 1998 Democratic opponents had so little money that they didn't report their total. Gene Taylor's 1998 GOP opponent had $8000 to Taylor's $312,000.

You can raise money against an incumbent if you can convince donors that the incumbent is vulnerable and you are especially strong. Republican opponent of Gene Taylor in 1996 was a former legislator running in a Republican district, so he amassed $466,000 to Taylor's $412,000, but still lost 58-40% vote margin. The conservative black Republican opponent of Thompson in 1996 raised $224,000 to Thompson's $428,000, and lost 60-38%.

People generally are first elected in open seats. Cochran was elected to Senate when Eastland retired, and Lott when Stennis retired. Also, Wicker replaced Whitten, Thompson replaced Espy, Pickering replaced Montgomery, Shows replaced Parker, and Taylor replaced Smith after his death.

Win big and scare off the strong opponents. Wicker won open seat in 1994 with 63% of vote, got unfunded unknown opponents in 1996 and 1998 and won 67-68% of vote. Pickering won open seat in 1996 with 61%, and drew only a Libertarian opponent in 1998 and won 85% of the vote. Cochran defeated Winter with 61% in 1984 reelection, was unopposed in 1990. Lott won a close race in 1988 (54%), but national Democrats diverted funds to other states in 1994 Democratic disaster, so Lott outraised opponent 2.5 million to $367,000, and won 69% of vote.

Another way to scare off strong opponents is to start raising money immediately after your election. A reported campaign warchest of $200,000 before race even begins demoralizes challengers.

CAMPAIGN ORGANIZATION: STAFFERS

Organizations vary greatly depending on the seriousness of the candidate and their funding. Weaker candidates have ma-and-pa operations, typically with no paid staffers and at best friends and relatives volunteering their time. Sometimes, the candidate campaigns completely alone.

Serious candidates. Front running Democrat for governor in 1999, lieutenant governor Ronnie Musgrove, had two co-chairs, two treasurers, two policy researchers, two schedulers, and six field workers, all full-time workers. Front running Republican for governor, former congressman Mike Parker, had a campaign manager, a political director, a finance director, and two field representatives. Democratic challenger, former state supreme court judge Jim Roberts, listed five people also: a campaign director, campaign chairman, deputy campaign manager, a treasurer, and a webmaster. Lesser known GOP candidate, Crystal Springs former mayor Dan Gibson, listed staff as his wife, a treasurer, political director, a speaker's bureau chair, a youth coordinator, two field coordinators, and a "bagpiper and advance," which I suspect were unpaid positions.

It is more difficult to get funding for non-gubernatorial positions, and for challengers to congressional incumbents. Front-runner for lieutenant governor, Democrat Amy Tuck, has a seasoned professional probably paid staffer, a former staff member for the state attorney general; she also has a College Democrat leader, a recent college graduate, who is probably partially paid. Other staff members include a scheduler. Republican front-runner Bill Hawks has a campaign manager, a media and scheduling inquiries staffer, and a Literature Requests and Organizational Meetings staffer, but I have no info on whether they are paid or unpaid. GOP challenger for Secretary of State, Nick Walters, has a campaign manager, a press secretary, and a driver, payment status unknown.

It is important to have an informative and visually appealing campaign website on the internet. It provides free advertising for you, in a setting where the candidate completely controls the message. The media also finds it informative, and may quote from your website. To view the websites of Mississippi's 1999 candidates for statewide offices, click here.

CAMPAIGN ORGANIZATION: POLLING

Problems with Polls: 1) Biased Samples- 1936 Literary Digest poll example; compare the composition of your poll with census data, weight needed. 2) Time Bound polls- 1948 Dewey-Truman race, 1980 Reagan landslide; conduct your final poll the day before the election, use tracking polls. 3) Likely voter problems--people overreport voting, so use scale of polling place knowledge, congressional name knowledge, campaign interest, etc. 4) Hard to estimate party primary voters--use party identification or candidate preference strength.

Sample Error Example.
Major correlate of sample error is sample size. For 3% error, interview 1100 people; for 4%, need about 600; for 5% about 400; for 6% about 300; 7%, 200.
If you use cluster sampling, your error is one-fifth higher than these figures.

Types of Surveys:

1) Mail surveys have too many validity problems.

2) In-person surveys are too expensive.

3) Telephone surveys are cost effective and quick, but leave out people without telephones and lower socioeconomic status.

4) Telephone surveys sampled from telephone directory leave out unlisted numbers, and people who just moved to community. Sample by taking equal intervals from telephone directory.

5) Random digit dialing, numbers purchased from marketing firm are preferable method.

6) Determining which adult to interview in each household: last birthday, oversamples women; quota sampling, asking for man first, other undersampled groups.

Demographic Groups Undersampled in Telephone Surveys:
1) High School Dropouts
2) Lower income
3) African-Americans
4) Men
5) Young
6) Old

Weighing the Telephone Sample:
1) Weight by number of adults in household
2) Weight by inverse of number of different telephone numbers
3) Compare sample and census on demographics
4) Weight by undersampled groups, such as high school dropouts and men; compare sample and census
5) Repeat step 4 until obtain representative weighted sample.

Name Visibility is important to measure. A major reason Barbour lost to Stennis in 1982 is because he was less known to voters than was Stennis. Two ways of measuring it: 1) Name Recall- open ended, ask the person if they can recall the name of their congressman, senator, party nominee for whatever office; 2) Name Recognition- include the actual candidate's name in a list of fictitious names, and ask the person who the candidate is; correct for guessing.

General Favorability is very important, and highly related to people's vote preferences. Ways of measuring: 1) Job performance question- approve-disapprove, or excellent, good, fair, poor. 2) Likes-dislikes about a candidate, open-ended. Thad Cochran's 96% favorability rating in 1984 predicted his defeat of Winter. 3) Rating candidate on each issue or personal trait.

Other validity problems you may face: 1) Biased sample based on voter rejection of name of polling company. If a candidate mentions his/her name or party, opponents may refuse to answer survey. 2) Loaded or leading questions give inaccurate results, often consistent with candidate's views. 3) Double barreled questions have people responding to more than one question. 4) Too complex questions measure non-attitudes; remember, people often lack specific knowledge, attitudes. 5) Acquiescence bias (agreement bias), especially on agree-disagree items. Give people realistic, dichotomous choices, such as specific tax increase for education. 6) Sensitive items, like race, people often lie and give social desirable response. For income question, use broad categories; for age, ask year born in.

Click here to view the results of the 1999 Mississippi Poll conducted by Professor Feig and his Political Analysis students.

CAMPAIGN FINANCE

Stephen Wayne's The Road to the White House has an informative chapter on campaign finance.

Money does not always win elections. Party identification is more important. Prior to the 1974 Federal Election Campaign Act, Republican presidential candidates nearly always spent more than Democrats, and they won most presidential elections until 1932. But that was because they were the majority party in terms of party identification. When the Democrats became the majority party in 1932, they won most presidential elections until 1968. With the party id gap closing, the two parties are now competitive (see p. 29 of Wayne text).

Spending in presidential elections kept growing exponentially, and millions of dollars of illegal corporate donations were made to Nixon in 1972. Total major party campaign spending in presidential races: $150,000 in 1860, $3.4 million in 1900, $5.1 million in 1932, $19.9 million in 1960, $24.8 million in 1964, $36.6 million in 1968, and $91.4 million in 1972. Hence, 1974 FECA enacted, establishing FEC and federal campaign regulations.

FECA provisions (p. 36-37 of Wayne text):

1) Public disclosure. Contributions of $200 or more must be identified and reported.

2) Contribution limits for "hard money". Individual contributions in each election (primary and general elections are separate) cannot exceed $1,000 to a candidate, $20,000 to a national political party committee, and $5,000 to other political committees, with total not exceeding $25,000 in one year.

3) PACs are limited to $5,000 contribution per candidate per election, with no limit on total amount contributed to all candidates.

4) Candidate self-contributions in presidential races. Contributions by candidates or immediate families are limited to $50,000 prenomination and $50,000 in general election, if candidate accepts federal funds. Candidates rejecting federal funds can contribute unlimited amount to own campaign.

5) Independent Expenditures. Individuals and political action committees can spend unlimited amount on their own to promote a candidate, provided they do not consult or communicate in any way with candidate's campaign organization. They can advocate a candidate's election, but expenditures must be reported to the FEC.

6) Spending Limits (presidential races). Candidates accepting public funding were limited in 1996 to $37 million in pre-convention and $62 million in post-convention period, with a cost of living adjustment and extra funds for accounting and legal costs of complying with law. If accepting public funding, spending limits during nomination process in each state based on population.

7) Party Spending Limits. National parties can spend 2 cents per voting age citizen backing their presidential ticket. State and local parties have unlimited expenditure right to get out the vote (Soft Money).

8) Coordinated Expenditures (Congress). Made in coordination with candidate's campaign, usually for services a party provides to candidate, such as polls, ads, fund-raising, or issue research. National party limits in 1996 were $30,910 for U.S. House candidates, and Senate limits of $62,000-$824,000 based on population, and COLA.

9) Matching Funds (prenomination period- presidential race). Major party contenders raising $5,000 in each of 20 states in contributions of $250 or less can receive matching funds beginning January 1. Only the first $250 of each contribution is matched by government. In 1996 government provided $56 million in matching funds to all candidates.

10) Communication Notices. Authorized ads by candidate organization must state the name of candidate or agent who authorized them. Non-authorized ads must identify person who made or financed the ad and their organizational affiliation.

11) Compliance. FEC assesses civil penalties, appeals made to U.S. District Court. Justice Department can assess criminal penalties.

FEC's website is www.fec.gov.

The Independent Spending loophole is huge, and normally benefits Republican presidential candidates.

Soft Money is also a loophole. Soft money is contributions to political parties that can be used only for "party building activities." Individuals and groups can give unlimited amounts to parties, but they must be reported to the FEC. Soft money cannot be used to directly promote a candiate's election, but parties can run "issue ads" that praise a candidate without calling for their election. Free speech, Buckley court decision. Soft money also provides local-state parties with phone banks, campaign literature, and field organizers. The GOP was advantaged in Reagan elections, it was a tossup since then, but GOP regained advantage in 1996 and 1998. In 1998, the national GOP raised $115 million in soft money, compared to $82 million for the national Democrats.

See Wayne, p. 47, 56.

Presidential Spending Patterns. 1) Prenomination period, equal amounts generally went to overhead, fund raising, and advertising. 2) Post-nomination period, majority went to advertising. Overhead was now only 30% of advertising budget. (P. 54-58 of Wayne)

Congressional Finances- see Herrnson book.

Page 69 provides budget of typical House campaign.

Staffing can be paid staff, volunteers like family and friends, party and interest groups, or consultants. Serious candidates such as incumbents, hopeful challengers, and serious open seat candidates usually have paid staff. Likely losers lack money and rely on volunteers (p. 61).

National party money tends to be spent on three types of candidates: 1) Incumbents in Jeopardy (under 60% vote margin); 2) Hopeful Challengers (over 40%); 3) Open Seat Prospects (over 40%) instead of long shots. (P. 82).

Political Action Committees (PACs)- Since 1974 law prohibited direct business and labor contributions to candidates, such organizations formed PACs. Number of PACs grew from 600 in 1974 to 4,528 in 1996. Total contributions to congressional candidates grew from $12.5 million to $215 million in 1996, and keeps growing.

Corporate PACs donate about two-thirds of their money to Republicans, while labor PACs donate over 90% of their money to Democrats. Corporate PACs give half of money to GOP incumbents, and much of rest to Democratic incumbents. Labor PACs scatter their money to Democratic incumbents, open seat Democrats, and Democratic challengers.

PAC Independent Expenditures goes primarily on behalf of Republican congressional candidates, but substantial amount also goes to Democrats. Much of money is also negative ads against a candidate. Examples from the 1998 congressional campaigns: $760,000 from the AMA backing three GOP House candidates; $1.6 million from the NRA for 30 congressional candidates, including two losing GOP senators; $2.3 million over two years from the League of Conservation Voters, to identify congressmen as the "Dirty Dozen"; $450,000 for a losing Democratic challenger from the Campaign for America, backing campaign finance reform. (See CQ, December 12, 1998, pp. 3297).

Congressional campaign spending helps challengers more than incumbents, since challengers need to buy the name recognition that incumbents already have.

U.S. House incumbents in electoral jeopardy tend to spend $1 million, while serious challengers to incumbents spend about $600,000-$700,000. Serious, open seat candidates spend about $800,000. Even long shots in open races spend $500,000. In a non-competitive House seat with an incumbent, the incumbent spends about $600,000, while the challenger spends about $100,000. (Ch. 6-Herrnson).

The average U.S. Senate candidate spends about $3.5 million. Senate challengers are of higher quality than House challengers. In 1996, incumbents spent about $4.3 million, and challengers $2.8 million.

Federal campaign finance seeks to regulate or ban soft money and independent expenditures. In 1998, national Democrats spent $79 million and national GOP spent $94 million in soft money. Schwartz's Loral Space and Communications gave nearly $1 million to Democratic national committee; he had helped give sensitive technology to Chinese government. Philip Morris tobacco company gave $2.3 million, including $250,000 to national GOP committee. National parties ran "issue ads"; about 70% of ads were run in last two months of campaign, and 60% of them were attack ads. Total spent on issue ads by 77 groups and committees was $300 million in 1998. Interest groups also made uncoordinated, independent expenditures that did not explicitly endorse any candidate: Christian Coalition spent $3.1 million on voters guides and automated vote turnout phone calls; Americans for Job Security, a pro-business trade association, spent $6.5 million, and was accused of fronting for health insurers; Sierra Club spent $1.5 million on issue ads and voter guides regarding incumbents' environmental records. (CQ- Dec. 12, 1998, p. 3297)

In the state of Mississippi, campaign donations are generally unlimited, though all contributions must be reported on a monthly basis, and those contributing $200 or more per year must have their names, occupations, and addresses reported. Instructions and forms can be obtained from the Secretary of State's office, Elections Division.

MASS MEDIA

Notable points regarding media use in campaigns:

1) Newspapers- important to seek endorsements of newspapers and columnists. Especially in less visible contests, they provide a positive item of information about a candidate. Eric Clark example- Sid Salter's column about Eric Clark as family man with Down's Syndrome child helped him, as did Bill Minor's lobbyist column. Amy Tuck's 1995 Bill Minor column on her personal background, and Clarion-Ledger article about her country girl persona.

Newspapers tend to be a more partisan medium, but their partisan leanings vary. New York-Washington D.C.-Boston axis is a liberal one, but many newspapers in rest of country are conservative and Republican. The Clarion-Ledger has a progressive and often liberal orientation, but it endorses candidates of both parties and stresses sensationalism; it is very anti-Fordice. It is important for candidates to meet with the editorial boards of major newspapers to promote their candidacies, and attempt to get favorable press.

Countering negative newspaper coverage. Lott in 1988 countered the Clarion-Ledger's endorsement of his opponent by running as a paid ad in that newspaper the Memphis paper's endorsement of him. In local politics, having friends and supporters contact a newspaper complaining about unfair coverage can also help-- Tuck example in state legislative race. Conservative Republicans often write letters to the editor to counter the Clarion-Ledger's anti-Fordice articles.

2) Radio- most prominent effective use of radio was FDR, whose voice and use of radio in era without television was unsurpassed. Reagan also used radio with Saturday broadcasts.

Radio permits you to target your audience by advertising on those stations that have a particular audience, such as African-Americans, country music fans, etc. Molpus' accusation on black stations in Delta that Fordice would send blacks to the back of the bus was designed to stimulate black turnout, but it backfired by being reported on statewide.

3) Television: free versus paid media.

Seek free media coverage with: staged events, such as Reagan in front of Statue of Liberty, Bush at polluted Boston harbor, Ronnie Musgrove visiting school classrooms; appearing on popular programs, such as Clinton on Arsenio Hall and MTV, Dole on Tonight show; getting press coverage for your work in public office, such as press releases and cultivating friendly relations with journalists; debates provide free media coverage, and minor candidates especially desire them.

Paid media- positive ads about self builds up name recognition; negative ads about opponent provide memorable information, but can backfire (Molpus' "irreconcilable differences" comment about Fordice).

4) History of Television in Presidential Elections.

5) Media in Mississippi Elections: examples.

FILMS ILLUSTRATE MEDIA IN CAMPAIGNS.

PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATIONS

Recent Presidential Nomination Battles:

1968 Democratic- President Johnson withdraws; liberal "amateurs" McCarthy and Kennedy win primaries; "professionals" support loyal Vice President Humphrey; anti-war platform defeated, party split; ticket- Humphrey/Muskie.

1968 Republican- party loyalist and centrist Nixon defeats liberal Rockefeller and conservative Reagan; ticket- Nixon/Agnew. 1960 Presidential nominee Nixon backed Goldwater in 1964 and numerous GOP candidates in 1966 landslide.

1972 Democratic- leader, bland centrist Muskie, weak 1st in New Hampshire after crying; anti-war liberal "amateur" McGovern strong 2nd in N.H., wins Wisconsin; McGovern narrowly wins California despite Humphrey extremist attack; centrist Humphrey, conservative Wallace lose to McGovern "amateurs"; ticket- McGovern/Eagleton (resigns- shock treatment)/Shriver. Excessive "openness" hurts ticket.

1972 Republican- incumbent Nixon/Agnew renominated.

1976 Democratic- field of little known candidates; centrist Carter whose "peanut brigade" had been campaigning in Iowa and New Hampsire for two years won both states, after liberals split up leftist vote; bandwagon-media coverage of Carter; Udall, Brown stay in race; Carter wins Ohio, "professionals" unify behind him to win in November; ticket-Carter/Mondale.

1976 Republican- centrist President Ford challenged by conservative Reagan; Reagan blunder of 90 billion transfer of federal to state programs, investing social security funds in stock market hurt him in New Hampshire and Florida; Reagan comeback in N.C. (Foreign policy attack and Santa Claus remark.); seesaw primary battle, as momentum shifts back and forth; liberal Northeast and Midwest support Ford, conservative South and West like Reagan; Reagan seeks Northeast support by announcing Pa. liberal Senator Schweiker as V.P.; uncommitted back Ford as winning candidate; ticket- Ford/Dole.

1980 Democratic- centrist President Carter challenged by liberal Kennedy; disastrous Roger Mudd interview where Kennedy didn't know why he wanted to be president; international crises boost Carter popularity, he wins with Rose Garden campaign; Kennedy stages a comeback as Carter's popularity declines; Kennedy loses bid to free delegates from 1st ballot pledge; ticket- Carter/Mondale.

1980 Republican- frontrunner Reagan refuses to debate in Iowa, loses to Bush; Reagan debates Bush in New Hampshire, Reagan wins N.H.; N.H. victory reverses Bush bandwagon, starts Reagan bandwagon, Reagan wins; ticket-Reagan/Bush.

1984 Democratic- frontrunner Mondale loses to "new ideas" Hart in N.H. after a weak 1st place win in Iowa; Mondale wins southern states (Ala., Ga.) due to "regulars", organization, conservatism, and "where's the beef" attack; Jackson wins black support; Mondale bandwagon starts; ticket- Mondale/Ferraro.

1984 Republican- incumbent Reagan/Bush renominated.

1988 Democratic- field of little known candidates; centrist Dukakis, drawing on Greek connection for fundraising, wins home state area of New Hampshire, northern industrial states; South split between Gore (TN), Jackson, and Dukakis; Dukakis defeats liberal Jackson; ticket-Dukakis/Bentsen (TX).

1988 Republican- two, strong candidates, Bush and Dole; frontrunner Bush loses in Iowa, stages comeback victory in New Hampshire ("mean" Dole issue, raise taxes); Reagan- associated Bush carries South, causing bandwagon in other states; ticket-Bush/Quayle.

1992 Democratic- Harkin carries Iowa home state; Tsongas (Mass.) carries nearby New Hampshire; centrist Clinton, a Democratic Leadership Council leader, sweeps native South; Clinton beats liberal Jerry Brown in rest of country; ticket-Clinton/Gore.

1992 Republican- Incumbent Bush/Quayle renominated after Buchanan gets 37% in New Hampshire and Duke loses the South.

1996 Republican- Front-loaded process helps front-runner Dole win 39 primaries, despite losing New Hampshire to Buchanan, and Delaware and Arizona to Forbes. On next two weeks, Dole wins New England and Southern primaries. Ticket- Dole/Kemp.

1996 Democratic- Incumbent Clinton/Gore renominated without opposition.

Who wins the presidential party nomination:

1) Incumbent Presidents- Usually Presidents are easily renominated, such as Clinton in 1996 and Reagan in 1984. But even when facing economic and international problems such as Carter in 1980, or a strong challenger such as Ford in 1976, they still get renominated. So did Hoover during the Great Depression in 1932. A loser can position themselves for the next convention, as Reagan did.

2) It pays to be moderate- Pat Buchanan was too extreme compared to Bob Dole in 1996; Carter in 1976 was a southern moderate compared to his liberal opponents, as was "New Democrat" Clinton; Ford won the uncommitted delegates in 1976 who feared Reagan was too conservative; Humphrey beat the liberal reformers in 1968. Exceptions to this rule were McGovern in 1972 and Reagan in 1980.

3) Being a party loyalist helps. Johnson's loyal Vice President and Vietnam policy supporter Humphrey won in 1968, as did Republican campaigner in 1964 and 1966 Dick Nixon. Vice President Mondale in 1984 had history of backing of labor and civil rights, while Senate Republican Leader Dole in 1996 won. Exceptions to rule are liberal McGovern in 1972 and outsider Carter in 1976.

4) Winning early states can create a bandwagon, increasing fundraising and name identification. Anti-war McGovern in 1972 won a strong second place in New Hamphshire; Carter's victories in Iowa and New Hampshire caused a massive bandwagon; Dukakis won his home state area of New Hampshire in 1988. Exceptions are numerous, with Dole in 1996, Bush in 1988, Mondale in 1984, and Reagan in 1980 losing early states but reversing the bandwagon effect by winning other early states or southern states.

5) The South is increasingly important, due to Super Tuesday. Mondale in 1984 stopped Hart bandwagon in the South; Bush, being Reagan's VP, won the South in 1988; Clinton swept his native South in 1992. But the earlier start of a New England primary in 1996 and the frontloading generally in 1996 reduces the South's importance.

6) Unexpected events can be a killer. Kennedy led Carter in 1979, but international crises caused voters to rally behind the President, and Carter was renominated. Bush lost New Hampshire after his Iowa victory in 1980, because he refused to debate, and after that it was all downhill. Such events were only critical in one year, though.

National Democratic Party Rules Changes.

Since 1968, national Democrats have tried to reform their party and make it more open and "democratic," and have imposed more rules on the state parties. The national Republicans are more supportive of states' rights, so they generally do not require as many rules. However, state laws enacted by Democrats can bind Republicans as well.

1) Affirmative action in representing minorities, especially African-Americans; quota system for women. Racial discrimination was outlawed in the 1960s, and a 1972 quota for women, blacks, and young adults created dissension. Beginning in 1976 Democrats used a more flexible affirmative action system for African-Americans, but used a strict quota for women. Today they require each state party to submit information on the representation of numerous "disadvantaged" groups. At 1996 Democratic convention, 57% of delegates were women (only 39% at GOP convention) and 21% black (2% at GOP convention).

2) Open delegate selection system, open to the public rather than a closed-door process dominated by party bosses. State Democratic parties must publicize how, when, and where delegates will be selected, and permit all Democrats to participate in the process. (Since 1968 over half of delegates of both parties were first-time convention attenders.)

3) PR, Proportional Representation, replaces winner-take-all systems in 1972. States must allocate delegates across candidates based on the candidates' vote totals.

4) Primaries are used by most states by 1970s instead of caucus-convention system; demonstrates an open process. By 1996 Democrats had 34 state primaries and Republicans had 40 state primaries.

5) Closed party system-- only Democrats can select Democratic delegates, started in 1970s. Some exemptions. GOP has no such rule, but only 4% of their 1996 primary electorate were Democrats, 21% Independents, 75% Republicans.

6) A 3 month window, whereby delegates must be selected from early March to early June. Shortens the lengthy campaign season. Traditional early states like Iowa and New Hampshire got exemptions.

7) Superdelegates-- 14% of Democratic delegate seats are reserved for public and party leaders, starting in 1984 (Congress, governors, DNC). Many officials weren't willing to run against average citizens for delegate positions, and conventions dominated by amateurs nominated losers like McGovern in 1972 or "outsiders" like Carter in 1976.

8) Super Tuesday, Southern Primary. Southern Democrats got tired of liberal presidential candidates, and most southern states held primaries on the same Tuesday in early March, starting in 1988 (5 states in 1996: FL, TX, MS, TN, LA; GA the Tuesday before, and S.C. the Saturday before that).

9) Front Loading-- most delegates (two-thirds) are now selected by the end of March, as states seek to increase their power by holding early contests. In 1996, after Iowa and New Hampshire in February came the New England primaries the first week of March, the Southern primaries the second week, Midwestern primaries the third week, and California and two western primaries the last week. This process benefits well-known frontrunners, like Dole. (See Wayne book, Appendix D-F for state contest timetable, p. 108 for current rules.)

Ideology of National Convention Delegates.

Democrats are split evenly between liberals and moderates, with only 5% conservatives.

Republicans are about two-thirds conservative, one-third moderate, zero liberals.

Both parties' delegates reflect their primary electorates. For instance, 1996 GOP primary electorate was 58% conservative, 33% moderate, 9% liberal (Wayne, p. 116).

General population is more moderate than either party. In 1996, 47% were moderate, 32% conservative, 16% liberal (Wayne, p. 119).

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

2 Models of explaining the outcomes of Presidential elections:
1) Satisfaction versus dissatisfaction; satisfaction helps incumbent party's candidate, while dissatisfaction helps the challenger.
2) Long term (party identification) versus short term factors (issues and candidates); majority party usually wins unless short term factors significantly benefit minority party candidate; no majority party at present at national level.

1948- Truman (D) - 50% - New Deal domestic issues (I), whistle stop campaign key, Democratic majority (P).
Dewey (R) - 45%- popular governor (C), dissatisfaction (I).
2 Independents: Strom Thurmond and Henry Wallace- 2% each- divided Dems.

1952 - Eisenhower (R) - 55% - war hero (C). Nixon Checker's Speech defuses issue. Dems blasted with Korea, Communism, corruption slogan (I), Dissatisfaction very important.
Stevenson (D) - 45% -

1956 - Eisenhower (R) - 57% - personal popularity (C); peace and prosperity (I). Satisfaction
Stevenson (D) - 43% - Democrat (P).

1960 - Kennedy - (D) - 50% - young, charismatic (C); W.V. primary and Texas ministers' conference defuses religion, debate defuses youth; time to move ahead (I); Democrat (P).
Nixon - (R) - 50% - popular VP, knowledgeable (C). (Debates hurt him)

1964 - Johnson (D) - 61% - Democrat (P); centrist (I); incumbent (C).
Goldwater (R) - 39% - too conservative (I); extreme, impulsive (C); numerous right-wing comments are disastrous. Own convention deeply divided.

1968 - Nixon (R) - 44% - Vietnam, unrest, crime, inflation (I). Nixon plays on Dissatisfaction with TV ads.
Humphrey (D) - 43% - Democrat (P). Divided Chicago convention hurts Dems.
Wallace (I) - 13% - seeks blue collar support.

1972 - Nixon (R) - 61% - world leader, prosperity (I); popular (C). Satisfaction.
McGovern (D) - 39% - extreme liberal (I). Numerous liberal statements hurts him, Humphrey attacks in bitter Democratic nomination battle, own V.P. resigns after admitting shock treatments.

1976 - Carter (D) - 51% - Democrat (P); stagnant economy, pardon (I). Dissatisfaction . Ford debate blunder about East Europe.
Ford (R) - 49% - Conservatism helps (I).

1980 - Reagan (R) - 51% - Iran, Afghanistan, inflation, recession (I). Dissatisfaction. Carter poor leadership (C). Reagan rebuts extremist charge with "there you go again."
Carter (D) - 41% -
Anderson, John (Indep)- 7%

1984 - Reagan (R) - 59% - peace and prosperity (I), Morning in America message; likeable person (C). Satisfaction
Mondale (D) - 41% - Democrat (P). 1st woman VP-Ferraro.

1988 - Bush (R) - 54% - peace and prosperity (I). Negative campaigning, Willie Horton.
Dukakis (D) - 46% - too liberal (I); uninspiring (C). (Debate-anti-death penalty, iceman)

1992 - Clinton (D) - 43% - moderate "New Democrat" (I). Dissatisfaction hurt Bush. Bush aloof at debate, Clinton slogan, "It's the economy, stupid".
Bush (R) - 38% - recession hurts (I).
Perot (Indep) - 19% -

1996 - Clinton (D) - 50% - Good economy, domestic (I); "Bridge to 21st century" target's Dole age, stresses "children" word. Satisfaction
Dole (R) - 41% - Old, uncaring (C). Dole falls off podium. (Reps. Keep Congress)
Perot (I) - 9% -

Note: R denotes Republican candidate, and D denotes Democrat.
I denotes issues, C is candidate, and P is party factor.
Numbers denote percentage of popular vote received.

CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS

Using Mississippi as an example:

1) Non-divisive constituency service- 1984 Senate race where Republican incumbent Thad Cochran defeats Democrat and former governor, William Winter.
Cochran has moderate image, as backed food stamps, rural housing, aid to developing institutions that help poor state.
Radio ad about helping person with social security.
Overwhelmingly positive image based on performance- 96% of comments about him in 1984 MSU poll were positive.
General performance factors (71% total): Good job- 22%; experienced and qualified- 14%; good record, performance- 10%; familiar with him- 9%; incumbency- 5%; "good man"- 4%; helps people and state- 4%; personal qualities- 3%.
Issues (14% total): like his ideas- 6%; issues generally- 3%; domestic issues- 3%; he's conservative- 2%.
Party (6% total): like his party- 5%; he's independent- 1%.
Other likes (5% total)- 5%.
Dislikes (4% total): dislike him- 2%; unfamiliar with him- 2%.
Opponent Winter was equally visible, but 18% of comments were negative, "only" 82% positive.

2) A "Feel-Good" campaign- 1988 Republican Trent Lott Senate campaign defeats Democrat Wayne Dowdy in open seat race (1988 Presidential Election in the South book).
Lott anticipates moderate Democrat Dowdy's attacks on his conservatism, paints self-portrait as a progressive. Ads show him against social security cuts, "No Way, Period, End of Discussion"; rebuts Dowdy charge by saying his mother isn't rich and lives on social security. Ads show Lott for college loans, more highway money, for environment.
Dowdy attacks Lott "chauffeur-guard" driving across poor towns. Lott shows black guard George Awkward with handgun in shoulder holster saying, "Mr. Dowdy, I'm nobody's chauffeur. Got it?" At debate Dowdy said, "let's cut George." Lott attacking Dowdy's roll-call absences deadpanned, "I've got a better idea. Let's cut Wayne. At least George shows up for work and he makes less than you do."
Lott problem of hiring only 2 blacks of his 163 staff members since 1972. Some black backed him because of stress on jobs, such as Fayette mayor Charles Evers, former state NAACP field director Cleve McDowell, and Isadora Hyde of Moss Point who formed a "Blacks for Trent Lott" organization.

3) Non-divisive, constituency service approach. African-American Democrat Mike Espy was first elected in 2nd district in 1986.
Well educated, young professional, low-keyed, businesslike, non-threatening to whites. Appointed by Democrats to Assistant State Secretary and Attorney General's Director of Consumer Protection Agency. Targeted black precincts, matched drivers licenses with voter registration rolls for registration drive, black turnout high, only 10% whites backed him. White Democrats (county sheriffs, two statewide officials) backed him. Agricultural recession hurt incumbent conservative Republican Webb Franklin in 1986.
In first term, Espy speaks to numerous chambers of commerce, Rotary Clubs, and black churches. Helps create Lower Mississippi River Delta Development Commission, funds Greenwood-Leflore County airport runway extension, federal loan for 85 new jobs for electronics company in Yazoo City, national Catfish Day, Army Secretary tours district, increased military purchase of catfish. In 1988, 30% of his funds came from white delta farmers, has biracial county coordinators, and second cousin Hiram Eastland hosts fundraiser on Adair Plantation Home. Espy rebuts his own liberal record by touting his support for death penalty for drug kingpins, balanced budget amendment, and anti-gun control and NRA endorsement. Republican Cochran refuses to campaign with Espy's Republican opponent. Espy gets 66% of vote in his first re-election in 1988.

4) Repudiating the national party, homespun appeal-

Democrat Mike Parker elected in 1988 in open 4th district race.
Son of Baptist preacher, funeral home owner.
Rejecting the "liberal" label, Parker calls self a "Mike Parker mainstream Mississippi Democrat," from the party of "Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare, veterans benefits, Sonny Montgomery, and John Stennis."
Homespun values of earnestness and dedication, "I'm just like you" appeal, projected on TV ads. Meeting police, he said his brother was a police officer, he understood the psychological pressures of the job, admitted he wasn't a brilliant man, but was "just like you are, just an everyday person," he pledged to bring common sense to Congress.
Moderate conservative Parker gets 55% of vote.

Democrat Ronnie Shows wins open 4th district in 1998.
Shows appealed to average working class voter by driving his ten-year-old car along Mississippi highways while campaigning. His humble persona contrasted with the rich tax attorney, Republican Delbert Hosemann, who opposed him, who had a "country club" persona.

5) Mobilizing One's Base, Empathy, Service- Democrat Bennie Thompson's elections in 2nd congressional district.
Elected in 1993 with black mobilization- "If you vote for my opponent, it's like a chicken voting for Colonel Sanders." Challenges white Democrats- "The party faithful must be willing to back African-American candidates as well as white candidates... don't like how the district has gone to the plantation owners after blacks worked so hard to get it." Inexperienced Hayes Dent simple assault barroom conviction.
Beats black conservative Republican in 1994 who says he isn't an African-American Republican, but is a "Republican who just happens to be black."
Thompson touts constituency service in 1996: Mid-Delta Empowerment Zone creates 1,000 jobs; millions for Delta levees; crime bill helped small city start police department with two officers. Organization speaking: Farm Bureau, he touts his support for farm bill; gets "respectful, even healthy applause" among white Rotarians in Clarksdale, where he jokes, "I don't have horns, I don't have a tail."
White planter Mike Sturdivant hosts reception for "Bennie", says he is: "very intelligent, very articulate... very supportive of the ag issues, has been very supportive on flood control, and he is interested in creating jobs."
When attacked for black staff, cites white college lady worker, pledges to serve constituents regardless of race, especially the "poor, senior citizens, children, and the disenfranchised."
Black conservative Republican talks about playing Dixie at Ole Miss, pledges in poor district to get federal government "off your back and out of your pocket", says he is Republican who happens to be black. Gingrich makes Jackson fund-raising trip for Republican. Thompson points out that "You cannot go and carry Newt Gingrich's policies in this district and expect to get elected."
Thompson wins re-election with 59% of vote.

6) ReRun Election, Repudiate National Party- Democrat Gene Taylor in 5th district.
Maverick state legislator, lost in 1988 to popular sheriff Larkin Smith. Taylor cites legislative accomplishments and familiarity with state issues. Emphasizes his conservatism by rejecting money from liberal PACs. Mabus endorsement, fundraising, and commercial don't help him. State Democrats lend him state executive director's help.
Building on his 45% showing, Taylor enters special 1989 election after Smith death. Trent Lott backs his aide Tom Anderson, discourages widow Sheila Smith from running. Mike Moore also runs. Taylor leads Anderson by 5%, wins 65% in runoff.
In 1990 Sheila Smith finally gets GOP nod, loses to Taylor who gets 81% of vote.
Gene Taylor is clearly moderate conservative. Colin Powell for President bumper sticker in 1992, voted "present" in 1995 Speaker's race. Leader of conservative Blue Dogs.
Clarion-Ledger endorses Taylor in 1996 touting "his demonstrated performance in Congress representing the diverse interests of the 5th district," and calling his independence "refreshing in an era with harsh partisanship creating gridlock in Congress."

7) Winning in Ideologically Compatible Districts-

Republican Roger Wicker, open 1st district, 1994. GOP primary charge of not conservative enough. Beating populist Democrat using negative ad with earnest TV ad and conservative codewords.

Republican Chip Pickering, open 3rd district, 1996. Beating Mabus supporter in conservative GOP primary. Democrat self-destructs with missionary-Bible school exchange ("student-led prayer group I started in junior high") and Gingrich-Clinton comparison ("I guess the choice is sending Bill and Hillary another player").

Democrat Ronnie Shows wins the open 4th district in 1998.
Republican Hosemann is too conservative, attacks the 1982 Education Reform Act and the 1987 Highway Bill for raising taxes, even though business groups spearheaded support for the 1987 bill. Hosemann also attacks Shows' speaking to labor union workers, as the Republican seeks business support.
Shows reflects the views of district voters by: being a long-time elected official, as a state legislator and highway commissioner; Shows is a more conservative Democrat, being a Blue Dog and a New Democrat, and opposing abortion and gun control.

8) Rebutting Political Weaknesses: Age issue

Democratic U.S. Senator John Stennis in 1982, gains final re-election. Poll shows age is an issue. Stennis TV ads showing his physical vigor: at desk in D.C. at dawn; climbing up a ladder on a warship; inspecting a military cadet line with cadets chanting.

Democrat Jamie Whitten in 1992 1st district wins re-election. Calls chairmanship loss a "temporary" stepping aside due to health. Cochran backs Whitten claim. Espy-Fordice exchange over age issue, Whitten claims Fordice visited him to save Yellow Creek advanced solid rocket motor. Whitten stresses constituency service: at dedication for Whitten Historical Center at Fulton on Tenn-Tom Waterway, a state conservationist praised Whitten: "Never have so many owed so much to one man." Campaign slogan- "Stand Up for Our Congressman, Jamie Whitten. He Stands Up for Mississippi." Runs newspaper ads and 8-page newspaper inserts stressing the federal programs brought into "every county in our district."

For more detailed information about these and other election campaigns, click here and read the four book chapters and papers listed under State Elections.

STATE ELECTIONS

1) Democrats must maintain a biracial coalition to win.

2) Stress your strengths, focus campaign on them.

3) Avoid Divisive Primary, Be Gracious in Victory.

4) Bad economic times hurts incumbents.

Democrats Governor Mabus and Lieutenant Governor Dye both go down to defeat in 1991 general election.

5) Morning in America Campaigns help incumbents in good times.

Governor Fordice benefits from good economy in 1995, non-divisive TV ads stressing booming economy and jobs.

6) Social Conservatism works in Mississippi.

7) Accessibility and Openness is important.

8) Job performance trumps race as an issue.

For more detailed information about these and other state election campaigns, click here.

SOUTHERN POLITICS

Review of southern political campaigns, using Mississippi as a key example.

Review 1998 southern senate and gubernatorial election outcomes. Note higher education tuition vouchers were powerful issues, as was NAACP-stimulated black turnout, in elected Democrats.

STUDENTS MAKE ORAL BOOK REPORTS TO CLASS.