NOTICE: These notes may be updated from time to time throughout the semester, so check this notice periodically. Also, make sure that you take notes on everything that I say in class that is not in these printed notes.
August 19, 2019 update- 1st page, text source updated to 10th edition.
Characteristics of public opinion:
How public opinion can be reflected in public policy (Erikson and
Tedin, American Public Opinion, 10th Edition Routledge Publisher
p.19-21):
What is "Representation"? Book by Hanna Pitkin, The Concept of
Representation. University of CA Press p.38-112:
Discuss representation from the standpoint of southern state legislatures (Drawn from Menifield and Shaffer's book that won the V.O. Key award for best southern politics book: Politics in the New South: Representation of African Americans in Southern State Legislatures, State University of New York Press.
Discuss representation from the standpoint of southern politics elections over the past half century. See Shaffer's unpublished book Chapter 3 and Chapter 15
Historic Problems with Polls:
Sample Error Correlates:
A chart for computing sample error is available here
PROS AND CONS OF SURVEY TYPES (Survey Types are: In-Person, Telephone, Mail, and Mixed Methods)
In-person survey-- pros:
In-person survey-- cons:
Telephone survey-- pros:
Telephone survey-- cons:
Mail survey-- pros:
Mail survey-- cons:
(For further information about survey types, see Mail and Telephone Surveys: The Total Design Method by Don A. Dillman, John Wiley and Sons publisher.)
Sampling Techniques:
Demographic Groups Undersampled in Telephone Surveys:
An example of some of these groups being undersampled is evident in the most recent 2014 Mississippi poll.
The problem of young being massively undersampled due to the rise of cell phones is resolved by sampling both cell phones and land lines, which the Mississippi poll did beginning in 2012. The great undersampling of the young was evident in the 2010 Mississippi Poll, which sampled only landlines.
Weighing the Sample:
EXAMPLES OF MEASURING PUBLIC OPINION ON PUBLIC POLICY:
(From Survey Research for Public Administration, by David H. Folz,
Sage Publishers)
Wording problems with survey items:
Impact of polling on public policy or elections.
How accurate are polls? See state-level polls conducted during the 2004 presidential elections.
Problems regarding underestimating "outsider" candidates or "ideologues" in a time of voter discontent were evident in the 2014 GOP Senate primary in Mississippi, and in the 2016 presidential general election in Rust Belt states (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania). Check out how the 2014 Mississippi Poll greatly underestimated support for the conservative senate challenger.
Check out the Mississippi Poll project, and all of its links. Particularly, look at the codebook for the pooled dataset, the methods of each poll, and the latest reports on results.
Americans are progressive on domestic economics issues, placing a high priority on issues that affect their everyday lives, and desiring more government spending to deal with those problems. Yet they also favor many conservative reforms in education, welfare, and other issues.
High priority items are domestic economic issues. Two recent poll results follow:
A Quinnipiac University Poll. June 27-July 1, 2018. N=1,020 registered voters nationwide. Margin of error is 3.7%. "What is the most important issue to you in deciding how to vote in this year's election for the U.S. House of Representatives: the economy, taxes, health care, immigration, or gun policy?"
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by Hart Research Associates (D) and Public Opinion Strategies (R). April 28-May 1, 2019. N=900 adults nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.3. "Let me list some issues that have been proposed for the federal government to address. Please tell me which ONE OR TWO of these items you think should be the top priority for the federal government: Health care. Immigration and border security. Job creation and economic growth. National security and terrorism. Climate change. The deficit and government spending. Guns. Trade agreements with other countries." Percentages are 1st choice only (with 1st and 2nd choices combined in parens):
For comparison purposes, two polls follow which were conducted four years ago, the year before the last presidential election.
A Quinnipiac University poll, July 23-28, 2015. N=1,644 registered voters nationwide. Margin of error ± 2.4.
"Which of these is the most important issue in deciding your vote in the 2016 general election for president: the economy and jobs, terrorism, immigration, the federal deficit, health care, foreign policy, climate change, or taxes?"
A CNN/ORC Poll on July 22-25, 2015. N=898 registered voters nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.5.
"Which of the following issues will be MOST important to you when you decide how to vote for president: foreign policy, illegal immigration, health care, terrorism, or the economy?" Options rotated
A note on terrorism. The September 11, 2001 terrorist attack temporarily elevated this issue above all others. Terrorism, fear of war, or national security were the number one issues of 59% of Americans in a November 2001 Gallup poll (Gallup Poll Monthly, November 2001 p.35). The economy or jobs were mentioned by 22%. All other issues were mentioned by 4% or fewer Americans.
The late 2015 terrorist attacks in Paris and in California elevated this issue, but it is unclear how long lasting this will be. See a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll, November 16-19, 2015, which was worded as follows: "Which of these is the single most important issue in your choice for president? Is it the economy, health care, immigration issues, tax policy, or the threat of terrorism?"
A note on Iraq. When America is involved in a war, that also
tends to
be an important priority. Indeed, Republicans lost control of both
chambers of Congress in the 2006 midterm elections. Note the following
December 2007 poll:
CBS News/New York Times Poll. Dec. 5-9, 2007. N=1,133 adults nationwide.
MoE ? 3.
"What do you think is the most important problem facing this country
today?"
War in Iraq- 25%
Economy/Jobs- 12%
Health care- 7%
Immigration- 4%
Environment- 3%
Gas/Heating oil crisis- 3%
Poverty/Homelessness- 3%
Terrorism (general)- 3%
Other responses- 36%
No Opinion- 4%
When the economy is bad, economic issues become most important.
Indeed, Republicans lost the presidency in 2008 in the face of the worst
economic crisis since the Great Depression. Polls
conducted in late 2008 showed how important economic issues had become to
voters. A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll, conducted in December
19-21, 2008 with an N size of 1,013 adults nationwide and a margin of
error of ? 3, asked the sample: "Which of the following is the most
important issue facing the country today?" The response was:
The economy = 75%
Health care = 7%
The War in Iraq = 6%
Terrorism = 6%
Illegal immigration = 5%
Other responses = 1%
Most Americans also wish for government to spend more on solving domestic problems.
Even when cautioned that spending more "might require a tax increase to pay for it," large majorities of Americans in the 2016 General Social Survey said that "too little" was being spending on national programs (Erikson and Tedin, 10th edition, page 94 table):
Less popular programs in the 2016 General Social Survey where less than a majority said too little was being spent follow. The following percents are those people saying "too much" was being spent (Erikson and Tedin, page 94 table):
Less popular programs, where more people saying too much was spent than too little were:
Public support for spending is so great that even a conservative, traditionalistic state like Mississippi has a public backing more state spending. The Mississippi Poll found the following percentages of the state public backing increased state spending in 2014:
Environmental programs in Mississippi were the lowest priority. While 37% said to spend more, 43% said spend the same amount, and 14% wanted to spend less (6% had no opinions)
Americans back increased education spending, but they also favor
some
conservative reforms. (November 2000 Gallup Poll)
Mandatory teacher testing in public schools is favored by 95%
National standardized tests for schools is favored by 75%
School vouchers is endorsed by 56%, opposed by 39%
President Bush's and the Republican Party's conservative education
philosophy had public support, therefore.
An in-depth study of vouchers
shows the public split on this specific education issue, resulting in
vouchers often failing in public referenda in various states:
(Phi
Delta Kappa/Gallup Poll. June 5-26, 2002. N=1,000 adults nationwide.
MoE ? 3. "A proposal has been made that would allow parents to send their
school-age children to any public, private, or church-related school they
choose. For those parents choosing nonpublic schools, the government would
pay all or part of the tuition. Would you favor or oppose this proposal in
your state?")
Favor = 52%
Oppose = 46%
No opinion = 2%
It is likely that the public would be more supportive of vouchers if they
were limited to choice among the public schools.
Americans view health care from self-interest perspective.
For Medicare, don't raise eligibility from 65 to 67, but make wealthier
pay more than lower income.
People want a universal system of health care, which includes high
cost items like catastrophic illness coverage, nursing home care, and
prescription drugs. But they want employers to pay for it, and don't want
abortion covered. The public (73%) favors a government plan covering all
children under 18, even if it requires a tax increase (CNN/Opinion
Research Corporation Poll, May 4-6, 2007)
Clinton plan died because people saw it as: benefitting poor
primarily; fewer medical choices; declining health care quality;
increasing health care costs; too much government involvement.
Yet in a 2000 Gallup Poll, 64% still say it is the federal government's
role to ensure that everyone has health care coverage. Furthermore, a June
12-15, 2008 ABC News/Washington Post Poll found that 66% of Americans
favored providing
health care coverage for all Americans, even if it means raising taxes,
instead of holding down taxes at the cost of some Americans not having
health care coverage.
The Obama health care plan (or the Democratic congressional plan) by late 2009 encountered some public resistance. An Ipsos/McClatchy Poll conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs in November 2009 found that 46% of adults nationally opposed "the health care reform proposals presently being discussed," with 34% in favor and 20% unsure. When those opposed were asked: "Is that because you favor health care reform overall but think the current proposals don't go far enough to reform health care, or you oppose health care reform overall and think the current proposals go too far in reforming health care?", 66% said the proposals went too far, while 25% said they don't go far enough, and 9% were unsure. A FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll the same month found that 51% of registered voters felt that abortion procedures should not be covered by private insurance plans, while 37% said they should be; also, 37% felt that the health care reforms would make their family worse off, and only 16% said better off, and 37% said no difference, while 9% didn't know. An August 2010 CNN Poll found that 56% of Americans opposed the new health care law. 56% opposed requiring that people get health insurance. More popular items were: 59% favored preventing health insurance companies from dropping seriously ill people; 58% favored preventing health insurance companies from denying coverage to people with pre-existing conditions (http://www.pollingreport.com/health.htm). A Kaiser Family Foundation poll in November 14-19, 2018 also found support for the pre-existing conditions aspects of Obamacare. 62% said it was Very Important that "the provision that prohibits health insurance companies from charging sick people more remain law," and 65% said it was Very Important that "the provision that prohibits health insurance companies from denying coverage because of a person's medical history remains law."
By 2015 people seemed to have a more mixed view towards Obama's health care law. A Kaiser Family Foundation poll in June 25-29 found that 43% had a "generally favorable" opinion of it, while 40% were "generally unfavorable" and 17% were undecided.
When the same poll asked: "What would you like to see Congress do when it comes to the health care law? Expand what the law does. Move forward with implementing the law as it is. Scale back what the law does. Repeal the entire law," the responses were:
Most recently, a July 2019 NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist national Poll addressed five current health care controversies:
Welfare Reform- ideologically diverse ways to deal with
problem
(USA Today and Gallup, 1994):
Conservative options backed by most people: job training; five
year lifetime limit for adults; two year limit for those without jobs; no
immigrant aid; people believe that "most" welfare recipients are "taking
advantage of the system." Hence, even Democrat Bill Clinton supported
welfare reform.
Liberal options backed by majority: child care for job seeking
parents; commuting costs paid; government paid jobs; keep paying unmarried
mothers, kids of unmarried moms, give kids separate benefits.
Social Security reform shows how public is unwilling to make
sacrifices, as shown in polls from 2005 and 2011 (ABC News/Washington Post
Polls. March 10-13, 2005. N=1,001 adults nationwide; and a March
10-13, 2011 poll of 1,005). 2011 results are in parens.
"I'm going to mention changes some leaders have proposed for Social
Security. Please tell me if you support or oppose each one. . . ."
"Increasing the Social Security tax rate":
31% support, 64% oppose, 4% unsure (35-61-4)
"Collecting Social Security taxes on all the money a worker earns, rather
than taxing only up to the first $90,000 of annual income":
56% support, 40% oppose, 4% unsure (53-43-4, wording raised dollar
amount to $107,000)
"Raising the retirement age to receive full Social Security benefits to
68, instead of the current 67": 33% support, 66% oppose, 2% unsure (42-57-1)
"Further reducing the benefits paid to people who retire early. For
instance, people who retire at age 62 would get 63% of their full
benefits, rather than the current 70%": 36% support, 62% oppose, 2%
unsure. (46-52-2)
"Changing the way Social Security benefits are calculated so that
benefits increase at a slower rate than they would under the current
formula": 37% support, 57% oppose, 6% unsure. (45-48-6)
"Reducing guaranteed benefits for future retirees": 20% support, 75%
oppose, 5% unsure. (32-66-2)
A February 15-18, 2013 Bloomberg National Poll suggests more public flexibility on fixing Social Security.
Flexibility may exist because 43% of respondents felt that Social Security will "not be there" when they retire, and 51% believe that "a major overhalf of Social Security is ... necessary to substantially reduce the deficit."
64% claim to favor "reducing the cost-of-living adjustment that automatically increases the amount of benefits Social Security pays out to help the program remain financially secure," while 35% oppose this measure.
59% claim to favor "a sliding scale for Social Security so that poorer people get more benefits and wealthy people get fewer benefits," while 35% are opposed.
Low priority items historically (on the most important problems facing America, open ended item) included many backed by partisan and ideological politicians: Racism - 2%; guns and gun control - 1%; AIDS, abortion - less than 1%, each. A 1997 Gallup Poll(The Gallup Poll Monthly, February 1997 p.11-13) found that other minor issues were: term limits, campaign finance reform, and capital gains tax cut.
Some of these historically low priority items have become more important to Americans, due to recent events. Note the most recent open ended responses on the question: "What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?" asked by CBS News/New York Times in December 4-8, 2015:
Similar results are found in an April 2016 CBS News Poll, the last time the most important problem question was asked in an open ended format. The results were:
Practical problems with balancing the budget. While a
majority of Americans say that they believe in a Balanced Budget
constitutional amendment, majorities tend to
back cutting only less expensive programs such as arts funding.
Majorities historically have also favored cutting welfare,
food stamps, and defense programs, though practical problems make it hard
to cut such programs (many welfare recipients are kids, for instance).
Most Americans oppose cutting expensive programs such as medicare,
social security, medicaid,
school lunch, college loans, police grants.
A majority of the public has historically supported a line
item veto for the President, like most state governors have.
A Quinnipiac University poll in March 2017 found majorities of Americans opposed to Trump's proposed budget cuts, responding that they were a "bad idea" instead of a "good idea" in the following areas:
Labor issues. A majority of Americans and Mississippians
approve of
the concept of labor unions, and of increasing the minimum wage.
Usually, about 60% of Americans approve of labor unions (Gallup, August
2007 poll, and previous
polls from 1978 thru 2006, and in 2017-18). Support
was mixed more recently in 2010-14 with about 53% approval.
Raising the minimum wage is consistently favored by most Americans. In May
2015, when told that the federal minimum wage was $7.25 an hour, and asked
about raising it to $10.10, 71% were in favor and 26% were opposed.
A July 2019 NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll found that 56% said it was
"a good idea" to have a "national minimum wage of 15 dollars an hour,"
with 41% saying it was "a bad idea."
Environmental and Energy Issues-
A Pew Research Center poll during May 5-June 7, 2015 of 5,122 adults nationwide asked whether "In your view, is global warming a very serious problem, somewhat serious, not too serious, or not a problem?".
46% said very serious, 23% somewhat serious, 13% not too serious, 16% not a problem, and 2% were unsure.
Two polls asking the same question
(A CBS News/New York Times Poll in September 2014 asking 1,000 adults
nationally. A March 2019 Gallup Poll of 1,039 adults nationally):
"With which one of these statements about the environment and the economy do
you most agree? Protection of the environment should be given priority, even
at the risk of curbing economic growth. OR, Economic growth should be given
priority, even if the environment suffers to some extent." 2019 data are in parens.
58% (65% in 2019) said to give the environment priority, 37% (30%) said give
economic growth priority, and 5% were unsure.
A Bloomberg National Poll conducted by Selzer & Company in June 6-9, 2014 of 1,005 adults nationwide, asked respondents: "Addressing climate change will mean more spending and potentially higher costs for consumers with the goal of reducing air pollution and preventing further damaging changes in climate. Are you willing or unwilling to pay more for energy if air pollution from carbon emissions could be reduced?"
62% favored more spending and higher consumer costs, 33% were unwilling, and 5% were unsure.
Americans are concerned about the environment and climate change. An April 2019 CBS News Poll found that 62% thought that "the condition of the environment for the next generation" would be "worse" than it is now, and only 11% better (26% same, 1% unsure). Regarding personal concern over "climate change", 42% said very concerned, 27% somewhat concerned, only 14% not so concerned and 17% not concerned at all (Quinnipiac University Poll, December 2018). Regarding "global warming" as "an environmental problem", 53% viewed it as "causing a serious impact now," with 26% saying "the impact of global warming won't happen until sometime in the future," 15% saying it "won't have a serious impact, and 3% saying it doesn't exist (3% have no opinions)(CBS News Poll, April 2019).
Despite such public support for fighting climate change, remember that this is probably not as high priority an issue as the economy, education, or health care.
Term limits backed by most Americans nationally.
But remember issue is a low priority one.
People back term limits due to rising public cynicism with
government.
Public divided when reminded that they can't reelect someone doing
a "good job." 74% of Mississippians backed a two-term limit of state
legislators in 1992; when reminded about inability to reelect someone
doing a good job, only 59% backed term limits in 1994 and 57% opposed it
in 1996.
Twenty years ago, crime was a top priority to the public. In a January 2001 Gallup Poll, crime was the third most important problem facing the nation, just behind moral issues and education. Americans are generally conservative on this issue, though it does favor some liberal provisions seeking to prevent crime. People are frustrated with crime. In a 1993 Gallup Poll, a majority believed that the criminal justice system makes it too hard for the police and prosecutors to convict people accused of crimes (African-Americans were split 50-50, though). Frustration was reflected in a majority agreeing that criminal defendants should be required to prove their innocence, and disagreeing that it is better to let some guilty people go free than to risk convicting an innocent person. People respected police and believed in respect for authority figures. A majority believed that police testify truthfully, and believe that obedience and respect for authority should be the most important virtues taught children.
By 2019, the public had shifted somewhat. As the rate of violent crime had declined, a smaller majority of the public felt that the courts were "not harsh enough on criminals" (Erikson and Tedin textbook, 10th edition, p. 108). While 65% of the public approved "of the way the police in the United States are doing their job" and only 26% disapproved, approval fell to only 49% among Democrats and 28% among blacks (Quinnipiac University Poll, April 2018).
Death penalty for murder is supported by a majority of Americans
(56% versus 41% opposed in an October 2018 Gallup poll). Death penalty support
has fallen since previous decades.
About two-thirds of
Americans nationally in 2009 favored it (65% to 31% opposed in October
2009 Gallup Poll). Death penalty was supported by three-fourths of
Americans in the 1990s.
At that time, the same level of support was found even
if one out
of one hundred people sentenced to death were innocent. Support nationally
rose in 1976 and in 1985. Even among non-whites, some polls showed a narrow
majority backing it.
Question wording affects death penalty support. An early poll showed that
when given two
options instead of one, 50% backed the death penalty and 46% backed life in
prison without parole (ABC
News/Washington Post Poll. June 22-25, 2006). Similar margin (47-44%)
in July 2008 Quinnipiac University Poll. Most recently, a July 2019
Quinnipiac University Poll found that 54% favored life without parole
and only 33% the death penalty (13% were unsure).
In Mississippi Poll in
1996, when given three options, 56% backed death penalty, 42% life in
prison without parole, and 2% a shorter jail term. Similar results in
2008 Mississippi Poll, with 48% backing death penalty, 44% life without
parole, and 8% desiring a shorter prison term. The latest 2014
Mississippi Poll showed 44% backing life without parole, 39% favoring the death penalty, 8% backing a shorter jail term, and 9% being undecided.
Rising support for death penalty prior to 2000 was because of rise
in actual
violent crime rate after 1960, and rising percent of people who think that
the courts are too lenient on criminals.
Death penalty opponents have stressed need for a moratorium in order to
ensure that innocent people are not executed, and argue that the death
penalty is unfair to the poor and minorities in its application. The
public is split on a moratorium, but is sympathetic to claims of its
unfairness.
Public wishes to reduce crime rate regardless of ideological direction of policy. Some gun control options favored by the public include:
Similar results were found in a 2000 poll by Pew
Research Center for
the People & the Press. (The survey was conducted by Princeton Survey
Research Assoc. April 12-16, 2000. N=1,000 adults nationwide.
"Now, I am going to read you some things that might be done to reduce
violent crime in this country. As I read each one, please tell me if you
think it would reduce the amount of violent crime a lot, a little, or not
at all.")
"More job and community programs for young people"- 63% lot, 29%
little.
"Longer jail terms for those convicted of violent crimes"-
49% lot, 33% little.
"Restrictions on the amount of violence shown on TV"- 48% lot, 37%
little.
"More police on the streets"- 46% lot, 45% little.
"Stricter gun control laws"- 41% lot, 33% little.
About 20 years ago, Americans were pretty conservative on social issues. In 2001, for example, moral issues, ethics, religion, dishonesty, and the decline of the family was the most important problem facing America, according to 13% (12% picked education). Average Americans tend to be conservative on some moral issues, though liberal or ambivalent on some life-style issues. Americans were generally conservative towards legalized drugs. 67% opposed legalization of marijuana in a 2009 Gallup Poll. Examples of George McGovern and Jocelyn Elders being hurt politically by backing decriminalization of soft drugs.
Today, Americans are more liberal on one type of drug- marijuana. A July 2019 NPR/PBS poll found that 63% of Americans thought that "legalizing marijuana nationally is a good idea" with only 32% saying it was a bad idea. The Erikson and Tedin book on Public Opinion (p. 105) shows how public support for marijuana legalization has increased greatly between 1996 and 2016, so that by 2016 the public was evenly split on marijuana legalization (plus, there were great generational differences on this issue).
Medical use of marijuana has been backed in some state referenda. Indeed, 93% of Americans support "allowing adults to legally use marijuana for medical purposes if their doctor prescribes it" (March 2019 Quinnipiac Poll). Indeed, the conservative National Review and William F. Buckley Jr. back decriminalization of some drugs, expressing concern over large jail population for drug possession.
Americans remain relatively conservative on school prayer. About 70%
believe
that prayer should be allowed in the public schools, and 69% (November
2000 Gallup, 2004 GSS polls) even back a constitutional amendment.
Americans back letting
religious groups use public school facilities after school hours,
saying prayer at graduation ceremonies, and
posting the Ten Commandments on public property.
The vast majority of Americans also favor keeping the words "under God" in
the pledge of
allegiance. A June 2002 ABC News/Washington Post Poll found that 89%
favored keeping this religious phrase in the Pledge, and only 10% wanted
to remove it.
Indeed, two-thirds in a June 2000 Gallup Poll even endorsed teaching
creationism along with evolution, though a majority opposed eliminating
evolution teaching.
Yet when asked whether prayer should be solely
Christian, the same margin favored permitting all major religions,
including Jewish, Muslim, and Hindu. Also, when asked about a moment of
silence or silent prayer, over 70% backed that instead of spoken prayer.
Is America a "Christian" nation controversy.
Much liberalization has occurred on the issue of
Gay Rights.
Whereas a Pew Research Center poll in 1996 found that only 27% of Americans
favored "allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally,"
by July 2015 54% were in favor with 39% opposed. A June 2016 CBS News Poll
found that 58% said it should be legal for same-sex couples to marry,
and only 33% said it should not be legal. Page 105 of the textbook by
Erikson and Tedin shows how support for same sex marriage has
increased over the past twenty years.
Even before support for gay marriage reached a majority, many Americans were willing to grant either civil unions or legal marriage to gays. A February 2012 CBS/New York Times poll found 40% backing legal marriage, 23% for civil unions, and 31% opposing any legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship (with 6% undecided).
Mississippi is also split three ways on this issue, but is more opposed to gay relationship recognition than is the nation. In the 2014 Mississippi Poll, 31% backed legal marriage, 21% favored civil unions, and 38% opposed any legal recognition of gay relationships (10% were undecided).
Opinions towards gays in sensitive occupations has also liberalized
over the years. Historically, most Americans believed that the Boy Scouts
should not be required to allow openly gay adults to serve
as Boy Scout leaders. A May 2013 ABC News/Washington Post poll found
that 56% of Americans were opposed to "the plan by the Boy Scouts of
America to continue to ban gay adults from being scout leaders," while
39% supported the ban on gays.
Americans oppose job discrimination against gays. An April 2019
Public Religion Research Institute poll found that 71% of Americans
nationally favor "laws that would protect gay, lesbian, bisexual, and
transgender people against discrimination in jobs, public accommodations,
and housing" with only 25% opposed. Indeed, the same poll found that 57%
were opposed to "allowing a small business owner in your state to refuse
to provide products or services to gay or lesbian people, if doing so
violates their religious beliefs" with 38% favoring the owner's religious
freedom.
In previous years, most Americans backed the moderate "don't
ask, don't tell, don't
pursue" policy towards gays in the military. However, 2008 polls showed
support for gays in the military; a December CNN/Opinion Research
Corporation Poll found that 81% believed that "people who are openly gay
or homosexual should... be allowed to serve in the U.S.
military," while 17% said should not; December Newsweek poll had 66-29%
split. A May 2009 USA Today/Gallup Poll also found that 69% favored
"allowing openly gay men and lesbian women to serve in the mililtary,"
while 26% were opposed and 6% were unsure.
Americans are divided on the issue of abortion. Only about
one-fifth wish it always legal and one-fifth wish it always illegal, while
60% wish it legal only under certain circumstances. Over 70% back legal
abortions for rape, incest, life of mother
endangered. A bare majority favor permitting abortions for reasons of
mental health of mother, or if fetus has fatal birth defect (See FOX
News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Oct. 23-24, 2007)
Abortion restrictions backed. Majorities back: 1) Requiring
doctors to inform patients about alternatives to abortion; 2) 24 hour
waiting period; 3) Requiring husband to be notified; 4) Parental consent
for those under 18; 5) Partial birth abortion ban (63% in a November 2000
Gallup);
An attack on a pregnant woman that results in the death of a fetus
should be treated as murder, according to 79% of Americans in a July
2003 Fox News Poll.
Americans are evenly
divided on legal abortions for: single women who don't want to get
married, women who cannot afford children, or for married women who don't
want more children. A plurality of 47% oppose an abortion pill (RU-486),
but 39% favor it.
Americans oppose overturning Roe v. Wade decision. The textbook (p. 111) notes
that in 2016, 70% opposed overturning Roe v. Wade with only 27% favoring an
overturn.
A June 2009 CBS
News/New York Times poll found that 64% would not like to see Roe
overturned by the Supreme Court, while only 29% wanted to see it
overturned (7% were unsure). (Margins opposing overturning Roe in
previous polls were 67% versus
30% in a November 2000 Gallup Poll, and 53-35% in a May 2007 Gallup Poll).
Americans are liberal on sex education and freedom of expression. 89% back sex education in schools. 63% oppose a ban on pornography for adults, though most back ban for minors (Erikson and Tedin, page 107).
Americans have become more liberal over time on the general issue of racial discrimination, but are divided over how to deal with concrete examples of lingering racial problems.
Increased white liberalization over time. Over 80% of whites back abstract concepts of school integration, integrated neighborhoods, and voting for an African-American for President (Erikson and Tedin textbook, page 99). There is less support, however, for concrete governmental actions to guarantee racial equality. Some reasons are: whites may continue to harbor racial prejudice; whites prefer self-reliance over governmental action; whites favor equal opportunity, not government guaranteeing equal results.
Americans, particularly African-Americans, are concerned over
race relations and racial discrimination.
When asked "Do you think race relations in the United States are generally
good or generally bad," in a July 2016 CBS News/New York Times Poll, 71% of
whites and 72% of blacks said generally bad and only one-quarter said
generally good. Sentiment had been more mixed under Obama in a 2014 poll
with only 42% of whites and 54% of blacks saying generally bad.
A January 2018 Quinnipiac University Poll found that 48% of Americans
viewed "prejudice against minority groups... in the United States today"
as a "very serious problem," and 33% as a "somewhat serious problem."
In a CNN/ORC Poll,
conducted February 12-15, 2015 of 1,027 adults nationwide,
when asked: "In general, do you think blacks have as good a chance as white
people in your community to get any kind of job for which they are qualified,
or don't you think they have as good a chance?"
81% of whites said "as good a chance" while 54% of blacks said "not as good
a chance."
In a CBS News Poll conducted June 18-22, 2014 of 1,009 adults nationwide,
when asked: "How much discrimination do you think there is against African
Americans in our society today: a lot, some, only a little, or none at
all?": 41% of blacks said a lot and 47% said some, compared to only 14% of
whites who said a lot and 51% who said some.
Affirmative Action for minorities and women- Mend, Don't
End. (USA
Today Poll, March 1995).
This in-depth study of different aspects of affirmative action was commissioned after Republicans gained control of both chambers of Congress for the first time in forty years, and President Clinton had to fight to preserve aspects of affirmative action. The poll found that:
Over 70% of whites backed: 1) Outreach, identification, and
encouraging blacks to apply for jobs; 2) Job training programs to improve
qualifications to get better jobs; 3) Special educational programs to make
them better qualified for college.
Over 60% of whites opposed: 1) College scholarships available for
only women and minorities; 2) Quotas for jobs or college admissions; 3)
Favoring a less qualified minority over a white in a business with few
minority workers. A November 2000 Gallup Poll showed that 85% of
Americans opposed racial or gender preferences in jobs and schools,
which I believe reflects this perception of quotas and special
preferences. A June 2003
Gallup Poll found that 69% of Americans
believe that only merit should be used in deciding entry into
universities.
This was not a salient issue to many whites. Only 12% of whites say they
lost a job that went to a minority; only 8% were passed over for promotion
that went to minority. Issue is more salient to minorities, where 32%
believe they lost a job or promotion because of racial discrimination.
There are big racial differences in perception of how police treat
African Americans.
A July 2016 CBS News/New York Times Poll asked adults nationally: "In
general, do you think the police in most communities are more likely to
use deadly force against a black person, or more likely to use it
against a white person, or don't you think race affects police use
of deadly force?" 75% of African Americans said more likely to use
deadly force against blacks, while 56% of whites said race had no effect
on the use of deadly force and 36% of whites said blacks were more
likely to be targeted.
An Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll conducted
July 17 and July 19, 2015 of 1223 U.S. adults found the following:
When asked: "Have you personally ever felt treated unfairly by a police officer specifically because of your race?" 50% of African Americans said yes, compared to only 3% of whites.
Asked: "In general, do you think police in most communities are more likely to use deadly force against a black person, or more likely to use it against a white person, or don't you think race effects use of deadly force?" 85% of blacks said more likely to use deadly force against blacks. Among whites, only 39% said more likely to use deadly force against blacks, and 58% said race had no effect on use of deadly force.
Asked: "How do you think police officers who cause injury or death in the course of their job are treated by the criminal justice system? Too leniently fairly, or too harshly?" Among whites, 46% say fairly, and 32% say too leniently. Among blacks, 70% say too leniently, and only 20% say fairly.
Racial Profiling. Results from 2014 Mississippi Poll, question
included in poll by former MSU PhD student LaShonda Stewart:
Have you ever been a victim of racial profiling? Of blacks, 38% say
yes,
62% say no (for whites, it is 8-92 split).
Do you believe that racial profiling is a widespread practice in
Mississippi? Of blacks, 85% say yes, 15% say no
(for whites, 47-53 split)
Do you believe that law enforcement officers should be allowed
to use racial profiling to fight crime? Of blacks, 4% say yes, 96 say no
(for whites, 24-76 split).
Confederate Flag and Monuments issue.
A CBS News/New York Times
Poll conducted July 14-19, 2015 of 1,205 adults nationwide, asked: ""Do
you, yourself, see the Confederate flag more as a symbol of Southern pride
or more as a symbol of racism?" Among Americans overall, 51% said
Southern pride, and 35% said racism. Among whites, 57% said southern pride,
and 30% said racism. Among African Americans, 21% said southern pride,
and 68% said racism.
An August 2017 Quinnipiac University poll found that 50% of registered
voters nationwide opposed "removing Confederate statues from public spaces
around the country" with 39% supporting their removal.
Reparations. The 2020 Democratic presidential candidates have been discussing this issue. A July 2019 NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll asked adults nationwide, "Do you think providing reparations for slavery is a good idea or a bad idea?" 62% said bad idea, 27% good idea, 11% were unsure.
Americans are basically internationalist. Generally, about twice as many say that our country should "take an active part in world affairs," as say that we should "stay out of world affairs." In Mississippi the isolationist sentiment is higher, however. Internationalist sentiment is affected by world events. It rose after the 9-11 terrorist attack, but declined after Vietnam and after the Iraqi war dragged on.
Defense spending preferences are influenced by external events. Vietnam era of early 1970s saw cynicism towards war and military causing desire for spending cuts. Iran and Afghanistan crises in 1980 and perception of American weakness caused desire for more spending. After 1984 support for defense spending declined, as defense spending increased greatly under Reagan and Eastern Europe was freed in 1989 from the Soviet Union, and the USSR itself dissolved in 1991. The terrorist attacks of September 2001 on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon naturally caused public support for defense spending to increase. By 2007, a fading memory of the 9-11 attack, plus public cynicism over the Iraqi war, were likely explanations for a plurality of Americans now saying that too much was being spent on defense. Support for defense spending rose during the Obama years thru 2016, as threats like North Korea, Iran, and ISIS rose (See Erikson and Tedin chart on page 103).
These defense spending patterns are paralleled in Mississippi. In 2002, 55% of Mississippi adults wanted to increase defense spending. From 2008-2014, between 45% and 54% of Mississippians said to keep defense spending the same. Only 29-39% wanted defense spending increased, and 12-16% wanted it deceased in the 2008-14 period.
If you get into a war, win it. Most Americans rated World War 2 and Persian Gulf Wars as "just wars," but most viewed our Vietnam troop involvement as a mistake and people were divided over Korea as well.
Russia. Americans' mixed views towards Russia ("overall opinion of Russia") became 60% unfavorable by 2014, and in a February 2019 Gallup Poll it was 73% unfavorable. 55% viewed Russia as an "adversary" of the U.S. (Quinnipiac Poll, July 2018); another poll found 25% viewing Russia as "an enemy" of the U.S. and 26% as being "unfriendly. (CBS News Poll, July 2018)."
Iran Nuclear Deal. This is a complex foreign policy issue. A
CBS News Poll conducted July 29-Aug. 2, 2015 of 1,252 adults nationwide, asked:
"Recently, Iran and a group of six countries led by the United States reached
an agreement to limit Iran's ability to make nuclear weapons for more than a
decade in return for lifting economic sanctions against Iran. From what
you've heard or read so far, do you approve or disapprove of the recent
agreement with Iran, or don't you know enough about it yet to say?"
20% approved, 33% disapproved, 46% said they didn't know enough to say, and 1% had no answer.
A May 2018 CBS News Poll found adults nationally split at 21% to 21% on
whether or not the U.S. should remain in the 2015 Iran nuclear deal with
58% saying "don't know enough about it to say."
Note question wording effect. A May 2018 CNN Poll read: "As you may know,
the United States and five other countries entered an agreement with Iran
aimed at preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Do you think
the U.S. should or should not withdraw from that agreement?" Given that
favorable information about the treaty read to respondents, 63% said
should not withdraw and 29% said should withdraw.
Two other Trump actions also drew mixed results.
"Do you approve or disapprove of the Trump administration's decision to
recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel?" 44% approve and 45%
disapprove. (CNN poll, December 2017)
"So far, do you consider the results of the recent summit meeting between
Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un to have been successful for the U.S.,
unsuccessful for the U.S., or a mixed result for the U.S." 32% said
successful, 15% unsuccessful, and 47% said mixed result for the U.S.
(CBS News Poll, June 2018).
Americans are generally supportive of the issue of a missile defense system. A February 2003 Gallup Poll found that 46% favored spending for "research and possible development" of such a system with only 21% opposed and 33% unsure. A July 2001 CNN/Time Poll conducted by Harris Interactive warned people about the cost of such a missile defense plan, plus its possible interference with current U.S.-Russian treasties, so support for a missle defense plan went down to 52% with 40% opposed.
Cuba relations. A November 2000 Gallup Poll saw 56% favoring
re-establishing relations with Cuba, while 35% opposed it.
A Pew Research Center poll conducted July 14-20, 2015 of 2,002 adults nationwide, asked "All in all, do you approve or disapprove of the U.S.
re-establishing diplomatic relations with Cuba?" 73% approved, 20% disapproved, and 7% were undecided.
Immigration.
An NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by Hart Research Associates (D) and Public Opinion Strategies (R) in July 26-30, 2015 of 1,000 adults nationwide, asked:
"Would you say that immigration helps the United States more than it hurts
it, or immigration hurts the United States more than it helps it?" Public was divided, as 47% said it helps more, while 43% said it hurts more, with 10% saying a little or both or being unsure.
When asked: "When it comes to foreigners staying illegally in the United States, which one statement comes closest to what you think? We should allow these people a pathway to citizenship to eventually become citizens of the United States. We should grant these people legal status so they can live and work here, but not become citizens. We should do neither one of these and work to find and deport people who have come to this country illegally:" 47% backed a pathway to citizenship, 17% said legal status but not citizenship, 32% said find and deport, and 4% were unsure.
An ABC News/Washington Post Poll conducted July 16-19, 2015 of 1,002 adults nationwide, asked: "Do you think undocumented immigrants from Mexico are mainly undesirable people like criminals, or mainly honest people trying to get ahead?" 74% said honest, and only 16% said undesirables, while 10% were unsure.
Immigration.
July 1995, USA Today poll of adult immigrants. Most prefer USA to
their homeland in terms of better job opportunities, more political
freedom, and fair laws. Yet most immigrants rated their homelands higher
in terms of safety from crime, and moral values.
Political reform issues can be complex and/or not major priorities to most citizens.
Electoral College Reform today- Americans are split with the results depending on the question wording. Two polls found 50% saying it was a "bad idea" to get "rid of the electoral college as part of the presidential election process" (NPR/PBS July 2019 poll), and 50% saying that the U.S. should not "change the constitution so the president is elected by the popular vote, not through the Electoral College" (Suffolk University/ USA Today, December 2016). However, 54% backed changing to direct popular vote when the words "for future presidential elections" were inserted (Quinnipiac poll, March 2019), as did 53% when they were cautioned that the current system "allows for a president to be elected without winning the national popular vote" (NBC News/ Wall Street Journal poll, April-May 2019).
Electoral College Reform after the disputed 2000 election. In November-December 2000 Gallup Polls, about 60% of Americans favored amending the constitution so that the candidate winning the most total votes nationally won the election, while 36% favored the current system where whoever wins the most votes in the Electoral College wins the election. Yet 2001 polls showed that most Americans regarded George W. Bush as a legitimate President, even though he lost the popular vote to Al Gore.
Belief Systems research in 1956 by Philip Converse of the University of Michigan: less than one-fifth of voters were sophisticated, being ideologues or near-ideologues; group interest was dominant category, then nature of the times and no issue content. But ideologues have increased over time, as group benefits has decreased.
Erikson and Tedin book, 8th edition, page 77:
.............................................YEAR
CATEGORY................1956......1968......1988......2000
Ideologues.....................12%......26%......18%......20%
Group Benefits...............42%......24%......36%......28%
Nature of the Times........24%......29%......25%......28%
No Issue Content............22%......21%......21%......24%
..................................(100%)...(100%)...(100%)...(100%)
The 10th edition of Erikson and Tedin omit two of these years and substitute years with more ideological major party candidates. In 1964 with Republican conservative Goldwater, the percentage of Ideologues was slightly higher at 27%, and in 1980 with conservative Republican Reagan the percentage of ideologues was also higher at 21% (as was nature of the times at 30%).
Issue voting is a measure of sophistication:
1950s era of little issue voting- people lacked opinions on key
public issues such as public power; their issue opinions changed greatly
over time; they didn't know where the candidates or
government policy stood on those issues; they didn't vote for the
candidate closer to their own position. Party identification shaped their
vote, or candidate personal characteristics.
1964-1972 era of greater issue voting- over 60% had opinions on
issues; about 50% were able to place candidates on issue scales; issues
affected the vote more, while party became less important.
Why change occurred: 1) divisive social and race issues became more
salient to public; 2) presidential candidates were more ideological,
offered candidates a clear choice on issues; 3) methodological artifact of
changes in issue question wording and response categories.
The 1990s- unsophisticated public is affected by general economic
satisfaction and dissatisfaction issue, evident since 1980. Satisfaction
in 1984, 1988, and 1996, and dissatisfaction in 1980, 1992. Issue
knowledge is limited: about half of public doesn't know party position on
issues, and only about one-half of public can correctly identify
the Democrats as the more liberal party (Erikson and Tedin American
Public Opinion 8th Edition, Pearson/Longman Publishers, p. 85).
21st century- an polarized population, with the two major parties
ideologically polarized. About two-thirds of Americans are able to
perceive the Democrats as the more liberal of the two major parties (Erikson
and Tedin textbook, 10th edition, page 81).
Examples of public lack of political knowledge:
Chapter 3 of the Erikson and Tedin book (10th edition) makes some key points:
(Source, Erikson and Tedin American Public Opinion, 10th Edition, Pearson/Longman Publisher, p. 184-220)
Socioeconomic status--education, income, social class
Working class backs more spending for economic social welfare type
programs, like the poor, social security, unemployment assistance,
health care, and
child care, compared to the upper and middle classes.
Higher income are less supportive of domestic spending and social
services, and less supportive of government guaranteeing jobs and a good
living standard, compared to the lower income.
College educated are more liberal on race and civil liberty issues,
compared to high school dropouts. College back abortions and aid to
minorities more than the high school dropouts.
College educated are more internationalist in foreign affairs than the
less educated (they back diplomacy, trade, Persian Gulf War and Kosovo
peacekeeping, for example). They also back the President more during international
crises, than do the less educated.
Working Class is more socially conservative. Compared to upper class,
they are more pro-guns, pro-death penalty, anti-abortion, and pro-building
the wall.
Higher income historically are much more Republican in party identification and voting,
compared to the lower income. 2016 was an exception, as Democratic party
presidential vote increased with income, and income had a curvilinear
relation with party identification (Democrats were strongest among the
lower income but also among those making over $125,000).
Race
African-Americans are more liberal on a diverse range of issues, compared
to whites. Blacks back more spending on economic issues, such as jobs,
welfare, health, and education, compared to whites. African-Americans back
liberal
racial issues, such as affirmative action, more than whites. Blacks are
more opposed to the death penalty, more supportive of laws protecting
gays, and more for gun control, than whites are. Blacks generally are more
isolationist when it
comes to the use of military force, such as Vietnam and the Gulf War.
African-Americans are much more Democratic in party identification and in
voting behavior, compared to whites.
Asians also tend to be more liberal than whites on many of these issues,
particularly on jobs and a good standard of living and on gun control.
However, Asians are more opposed to the legalization of marijuana than
all other racial groups (textbook, page 196).
Hispanics also tend to be more liberal than whites on diverse issues,
though not as liberal as blacks. Hispanics are the racial group most opposed
to ending birthright citizenship.
Age
Young adults under 30 are more liberal than those over 55 on race and
civil liberty issues. Young white southerners (as well as northerners) are
more supportive of racial integration and more opposed to racial
discrimination, than are the elderly. Young are more supportive than the
old of women's rights, abortion, gay rights, and marijuana
legalization.
Young are somewhat more liberal on domestic economic welfare programs than
the old, such as student loans, jobs, and government services. No
significant age differences on social security; indeed, the young
are more supportive of permitting social
security funds to be invested in the stock market. Also, the young are
slightly less supportive of raising the minimum wage than the old.
Gender
Women are less supportive of the use of force, compared to men. Women are
more supportive of gun control, more opposed to the death penalty, and
more opposed to using military force, than are men.
Women are slightly more compassionate than men, backing such social
welfare programs as anti-poverty, health insurance, jobs, pro-Social
Security, income equalization, child care spending, and government social
programs spending more generally.
There are no gender differences on women's issues, such as abortion and
equal rights legislation. Women are slightly less supportive of the
legalization of marijuana than men.
Region- the South
The South has historically been more conservative than the North.
Yet during the 1930s New Deal of FDR, the South backed his liberal
economic programs, because of its poverty.
Today, regional differences in issue attitudes have diminished. Northern
whites have become more conservative on race and social issues, while
southern whites have become less conservative.
White high school dropouts remain the most racially conservative,
especially in the South. In a 1988 study, about one-third of white
southern high school dropouts backed segregation in the public schools.
Similar results occurred in Mississippi.
Problem of socially desirable responses in survey data. Using unobtrusive
measure of racial hostility, one study examining whites in the South
and non-South found that only southern whites became angry if "a black
family moves next door," and that white anger was concentrated among men
rather than women.
Regional differences in party identification among whites has been
eliminated. White Southerners used to be very Democratic, but by 2004 they
were evenly split between the parties, as were whites in the north. By
2012, southern whites were significantly more likely to be Republicans
than Democrats.
Religion
Jews and atheists-agnostics are more likely to call themselves "liberals,"
compared to Protestants and Catholics. Both groups are more liberal than
other religious groups on civil liberty and race issues, such as abortion,
marijuana, school prayer, equal rights for women, and government aid to
blacks.
Jewish religion is the most Democratic in terms of party identification
and voting behavior of any religious group.
Few differences exist today between Protestant and Catholics, though
Protestants are slightly more likely to label themselves conservative, and
lean slightly more towards the Republican party.
Among white protestants, the Religious (Evangelicals) are
more conservative on domestic economic, civil liberty, and military
issues, than are the Secular Protestants. (p. 206, Erikson and Tedin
American Public Opinion 10th Edition, Pearson/Longman Publishers)
Fundamentalists are also more Republican in party identification and
federal voting behavior.
Click here for information on demographic group differences on diverse public policy issues in Mississippi. This information uses the Mississippi poll data from 2006-2010.
Socialization
(source: Erikson and Tedin, American Public
Opinion 10th Edition, Pearson/Longman Publishers, chapter 5.
Attachment to nation, perception of government: early childhood-
personalizes government, focuses on President, heroes; late childhood-
separates President from office, learns about Congress, voting, public
versus private sector; adolescence- ideology.
Agents of Socialization: family- party identification; peers; school;
college- is it liberal; job; marriage.
Political Generations: those who came of age (became 18-20) during the New
Deal Democratic era (1932-1979) are more Democratic in party
identification; those who came of age before the New Deal, or during the
Reagan years are more Republican.
Life Cycle effects: as people age, they tend to acquire a more intense
partisan identification.
Period effects: those coming of political age after 1965 have tended to be
more Independent in partisanship than their elders.
Persistence of pre-adult acquired attitudes: some learning occurs
throughout the lifetime, due to jobs, marriage, class change, and events.
Ideology of college professors (textbook's table 5.4 on page 136 has incorrect percentages for faculty ideology; please use the following corrected chart):
Attitude Theories
Democratic Support
(Source: Erikson and Tedin, American
Public Opinion, 10th Edition, Pearson/Longman Publishers, chapter
6.)
Americans are not very tolerant of groups holding unpopular views
(communists in the 1950s, Klansmen, those sympathetic to terrorists today,
see page 158).
The college educated are much more tolerant of unpopular groups than the
less educated (except for political correctness era).
Tolerance has increased since the early 1950s, perhaps because of rising
educational levels and more urbanization (p. 160).
What do you think about a constitutional amendment banning flag burning,
permitting posting of 10 commandments in public buildings, extremist
right wing speakers on college campuses, racist marches in town?
Political Trust
Important for a democratic society; partly shaped by social trust.
Has declined over time since the 1950s (p. 172).
Trust temporarily increased during optimistic President and good
economic times of the Reagan 1980s, and after 9-11 terrorist attack when
Bush unified the nation (p. 172 textbook).
Presidential job rating
What affects a president's job rating?
Bush 2's presidency is a good example of the general decline over time of a president's popularity. His decline reflects the effects of the coalition of minorities, bad economic conditions, and probably the unpopular prolonged wars. His average Gallup approval ratings were: 2001= 65%; 2002= 70%; 2003- 60%; 2004- 50%; 2005- 45%; 2006- 40%; 2007= 35%; 2008= 30%.
Specific presidents' ratings:
(source, Erikson,
Tedin, American Public Opinion, 10th Edition, Pearson/Longman
Publishers p. 117; Gallup Poll source)
Presidents and demographics
Great Presidents, as rated by historians
Presidents who exercised presidential power and had a major impact on
American society are rated as Great Presidents. Public popularity is not a
major factor.
Top ten greatest presidents:
Party identification-
Public partisanship reflects public opinion on economic and social issues of the day
Recent historical party identification ties: 1993-2001 Gallup Polls
Democrats had 34% of American adult population
Republicans had 30% of adult population
Results were similar in 2016.
Rasmussen's
poll in April 2010 showed Democrats at 36% and Republicans at
32%, also a mere 4% Democratic advantage.
Averaging 3 Gallup Polls in June and July of 2019 found the following:
Democrats at 28%, Republicans at 27%, Independents at 42%. This is a
mere 1% Democratic advantage.
Obviously, the parties are essentially tied among "likely voters".
Who are Democrats and Republicans?
Demographics- Historically, GOP tends to be more white, higher income
and higher education, slightly more male (see Mississippi poll),
especially when examining all races.
Ideology- GOP is more conservative, Democrats more liberal (text,
page 83). In Mississippi and South, GOP
has made its greatest gains among white conservatives.
Party Images in Mississippi and Alabama
Democrats are viewed as best for African-Americans, helping poor.
Republicans are viewed as best in reducing crime, preserving traditional values.
Education is a battle ground for both parties.
Ideology-
A plurality of Americans describe themselves as Moderate; among the
remainder, Conservatives outnumber Liberal. Hence, the "liberal" label is
not a popular one.
Public self-described ideology has remained unchanged for last twenty years
However, textbook finds when looking at 10 specific issues, most Americans
are pretty "centrist" with about as many liberals as conservatives (page 76).
Public Ideological Mood, measured by James Stimson using numerous issues:
public became more liberal in 1960, ushering in Kennedy presidency; public
became more conservative in 1979, ushering in Reagan presidency; public
became more liberal in 1988, Bush won with a "kinder and gentler" slogan,
then Democrat Clinton won.
2 Models of explaining the outcomes of Presidential elections
are:
1) Satisfaction versus dissatisfaction; satisfaction helps incumbent
party's candidate, while dissatisfaction helps the challenger.
Accountability occurs as Presidents strive to do a good job to keep
public satisfied and get reelected.
2) Long term (party identification) versus short term factors (issues and
candidates); majority party usually wins unless short term factors
significantly benefit minority party candidate; no majority party at
present at national level. Again, a general accountability occurs, as
party most in accord with public desires is the majority party; the
partisan direction of short term factors also reflects the public's
satisfaction with candidates' issue positions and personal qualifications.
(See: Campbell, Converse, Miller and Stokes The American Voter,
John Wiley and Son, Inc)
1948- Truman (D) - 50% - New Deal domestic issues (I), whistle stop campaign key, Democratic
majority (P).
Dewey (R) - 45%- popular governor (C), dissatisfaction (I).
2 Independents: Strom Thurmond and Henry Wallace- 2% each- divided Dems.
1952 - Eisenhower (R) - 55% - war hero (C). Nixon Checker's Speech
defuses issue. Dems blasted with Korea, Communism, corruption slogan (I),
Dissatisfaction very important.
Stevenson (D) - 45% -
1956 - Eisenhower (R) - 57% - personal popularity (C); peace and
prosperity (I). Satisfaction
Stevenson (D) - 43% - Democrat (P).
1960 - Kennedy - (D) - 50% - young, charismatic (C); W.V. primary
and Texas ministers' conference defuses religion, debate defuses youth;
time to move ahead (I); Democrat (P).
Nixon - (R) - 50% - popular VP, knowledgeable (C). (Debates hurt him)
1964 - Johnson (D) - 61% - Democrat (P); centrist (I); incumbent
(C).
Goldwater (R) - 39% - too conservative (I); extreme,
impulsive (C); numerous right-wing comments are disastrous. Own convention
deeply divided.
1968 - Nixon (R) - 44% - Vietnam, unrest, crime, inflation (I).
Nixon plays on Dissatisfaction with TV ads.
Humphrey (D) - 43% - Democrat (P). Divided Chicago convention hurts
Dems.
Wallace (I) - 13% - seeks blue collar support.
1972 - Nixon (R) - 61% - world leader, prosperity (I); popular (C).
Satisfaction.
McGovern (D) - 39% - extreme liberal (I). Numerous liberal
statements hurts him, Humphrey attacks in bitter Democratic nomination
battle, own V.P. resigns after admitting shock treatments.
1976 - Carter (D) - 51% - Democrat (P); stagnant economy, pardon (I). Dissatisfaction
. Ford debate blunder about East Europe.
Ford (R) - 49% - Conservatism helps (I).
1980 - Reagan (R) - 51% - Iran, Afghanistan, inflation, recession (I).
Dissatisfaction. Carter poor leadership (C). Reagan
rebuts extremist charge with "there you go again."
Carter (D) - 41% -
Anderson, John (Indep)- 7%
1984 - Reagan (R) - 59% - peace and prosperity (I), Morning in
America message; likeable person (C). Satisfaction
Mondale (D) - 41% - Democrat (P). 1st woman VP-Ferraro.
1988 - Bush (R) - 54% - peace and prosperity (I).
Negative campaigning, Willie Horton.
Dukakis (D) - 46% - too liberal (I); uninspiring (C).
(Debate-anti-death penalty, iceman)
1992 - Clinton (D) - 43% - moderate "New Democrat" (I).
Dissatisfaction hurt Bush. Bush aloof
at debate, Clinton slogan, "It's the economy, stupid".
Bush (R) - 38% - recession hurts (I).
Perot (Indep) - 19% -
1996 - Clinton (D) - 50% - Good economy, domestic (I);
"Bridge to 21st century" target's Dole
age, stresses "children" word. Satisfaction
Dole (R) - 41% - Old, uncaring (C). Dole falls off podium.
(Reps. Keep Congress)
Perot (I) - 9% -
2000 - Bush (R) - 50% - personable (C), compassionate conservative
(I)
Gore (D) - 50% - arrogant (C), Clinton scandal (I), too liberal (I).
2004- Bush (R) - 51% - Decisive terrorist fighter
helps Bush (I)
Kerry (D) - 48% - Flip-flopping liberal charge hurts Kerry (I)
2008- Obama (D) - 53% - Charismatic, articulate speaker (C)
McCain (R) - 46% - Financial Crisis, recession hurts (I)
2012- Obama (D)- 51%- middle class theme, people like me empathy (I);
38-32 Democratic exit poll advantage (P).
Romney (R)- 48%- rich man, takers 47% comment lacks empathy (C).
2016- Trump (R)- 46%- outsider, dissatisfaction (I); trade
protectionism (I).
Clinton, Hillary (D)- 48%- basket of deplorables (racists,
sexists, Islamaphobic) comment lacks empathy (C).
Note: R denotes Republican candidate, and D denotes Democrat.
I denotes issues, C is candidate, and P is party factor.
Numbers denote percentage of popular vote received.
Note on the 2000 presidential election. Gore was helped by the public's approval of Clinton's job handling the economy and foreign affairs. Bush was helped by his conservatism generally, and on government spending and defense issue. Would Gore have won if he had linked himself more closely to Clinton, or if he had been less liberal? (Source: Flanigan and Zingale Political Behavior of the American Electorate Tenth Edition CQ Press, p. 194.)
Note on 2016 presidential election. Trump's active campaigning in Rust Belt states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, plus Clinton's decreased campaigning there helped Trump carry these states. Trump's visit to Detroit black churches may have reduced African American turnout in Detroit.
Influence of mass media: direct effects model, versus filter.
Stages of filter model (limited media effects):
Is the media ideologically biased?
Television is the most important medium today. Review of televised presidential debates:
Some noteworthy films to talk about:
What is an interest group or pressure group? People united in views on a subject, who band together to seek to influence public policy. Political parties are also viewed as interest groups, though they are more diverse coalitions of interests.
Pressure Group Tactics.
PACs-Political Action Committees. 1974 Federal Election Campaign Act limited individual contributions to federal candidates, outlawed business and labor contributions, but permitted them to form voluntary PACs. Great rise of PACs since then. PACs tend to support incumbents. Public opinion is represented in these groups' donations, to the extent that people are members of business, labor, professional, ideological, and other types of groups that have PACs. But public opinion may be overruled by powerful and active groups, such as the NRA.
Iron Triangle of influence. 1) Interest group lobbyists. 2)
Congressional committees relevant. 3) Executive agency relevant.
Examples--defense, agriculture, education.
Public opinion may be overruled by these iron triangles, but an aroused
public opinion will always win out in influencing policymakers, as will
competing interest groups. Despite the iron triangle in national defense,
other groups stressing social spending reduced the military share of
the GNP after 1960, as did declining public support for the military
during peacetime.
Types of Interest Groups: National and Mississippi
Political Parties as interest groups. (Erikson and Tedin, American Public Opinion, 10th Edition Pearson/Longman Publishers, chapter 10)
Does party control of Congress or the presidency affect public policy?
Does public opinion shape public policy?
Public policy is generally consistent with public opinion: (Erikson and Tedin, American Public Opinion, 10th Edition, Pearson/Longman Publishers, chapter 11)