January 17, 2024. Well, this is the first time I've been late for a class. Historically harsh winter weather for Mississippi. With an old, cold house and a half-mile long steep hill covered in ice to drive up and down, I ended up checking myself into the Hilton Garden Inn. Nice, resort-like hotel. Bumped into a bunch of athletes staying there, including the Ole Miss women's basketball team. First time I've used a treadmill- it's tougher than running on a track. I got up to 2 miles at an 8-minute mile pace, but I was so worn out that I had to take a break at the half-way mark. Fortunately, before working out, I used the hotel's free internet service (you don't need your own laptop), and got motivation by listening to and watching Dua Lipa's Dance All Night video. Well, I earlier sent you my syllabus and the link to my class website, which is pretty much what we would have covered today. I would have handed out the following info in class, which I am now including in this e-mail:
POLITICAL
ANALYSIS CLASS INFO:
I have my own website on the world wide web. It’s address is:
https://sds17.pspa.msstate.edu/
If you ever forget this website address, just Google: “Steve Shaffer website”
At the top of this webpage, it reads:
What's new?
Just click on Political Analysis class material to get the relevant webpage:
https://sds17.pspa.msstate.edu/classes/analysis/analysis.html
That page then has the following valuable webpages:
The first day of class, I would have talked about our commitment to a truly "scientific" study of politics. It is the 6 characteristics of the Behavioral Era, discussed in Weeks 1-2 of the class notes. It involves being objective and systematic in your analyses. For example, when Covid hit Italy a month before the U.S., the television news showed coliseums filled with sick and dying people. I read every news report from Italy, and learned that those most likely to die were over the age of 70, who also had two life-threatening pre-existing conditions. The next television report was how men were more likely to die than women. I then read a report that that was because Italian men were more likely to abuse alcohol and tobacco products than were women. Applying these "scientific" studies, I then concluded that even though I was a 66-year-old man, I was not likely to die of this disease. Therefore, I held in-person classes for the entire year, rather than work remotely from home (and I did not die!). MSU stayed open with about half of the professors teaching in-class; many universities closed for the entire year. Also as a scientist, I worried about the negative effects of closing society, in terms of less working out (increased obesity and its related diseases), more social isolation (increased suicides), and learning losses (evident in K-12 education). I did caution students and suggest that they get the vaccine (as I did), simply to protect their aging relatives, and I always practiced social distancing (even this year I did not attend any Christmas parties), because those are effective strategies. But science helped to calm my fears of this horrible disease; indeed, as a Christian one could also look forward to a better place. Indeed, science can complement religion; science deals with the material world, and religion with the spiritual world.
Which brings us to the current presidential election race. As we go thru the course, you may learn that we have pretty sophisticated scientific studies of American politics, based on some great national public opinion polls. Indeed, our models proudly predicted that Al Gore would not only be elected President in 2000, but that he would also win in a landslide! We also predicted confidently that Hillary Clinton would easily defeat Donald Trump!! Woops!!! What went wrong?? Well, in 2000 our models said that a popular President (Clinton) and a good economy would help the incumbent president's party, yet Gore did not publicly attach himself with the impeached and alleged sexual harasser/rapist Bill Clinton. Plus, Gore acted a little arrogant during a key debate, kind of elitist. In 2016 our polls may have undersampled Trump supporters, some Trump supporters may have not wanted to admit that they planned to vote for a guy who had bragged about groping women, and we underestimated Trump's appeal as an outsider to a disillusioned population. So, our models are not always right, and it is fun to keep learning from current events. The current presidential election is amazing, as the two front runners are a twice impeached, four times criminally indicted former President and the "walking corpse" (as some joke) current President. As such, polls have the race as a virtual tossup, with Trump at this point only 1 percentage point ahead (but probably further ahead in the electoral vote). But a lot can change in one year. Biden is wisely talking about protecting "democracy" as he did in the 2022 midterm elections where Democrats did much better than expected, and Republicans may again nominate some extreme and inexperienced congressional and gubernatorial candidates (extreme Trump supporters have gained control of some key state party organizations). Trump would be wise to keep comparing the good economy of most of his presidency and the absence of war with Biden's 20% inflation over four years and wars raging in Europe and the Mideast, and ask the question that Reagan asked in defeating President Carter in 1980: "Are you better off today than you were four years ago? If so, vote for the incumbent. If not, vote for me, and give my program a chance." So, it should be a real interesting and fun semester!
Many students hate and fear the Political Analysis class. They are weak at math, and the sample research papers on my website may look like too much work. But I carefully explain everything so that you need almost no math skills. Plus, as we cover the course material step by step, and use the Monday lab to work on your research papers, you will find that the submission of the research paper in parts will make it quite possible. But it is very important to attend every class you can! If you have to miss a class, check my update page for what you missed, and feel free to e-mail me with any questions. Or, see me after class. Most important, if you have any problems, stick around for the lab, and don't leave early!
Well, at this point, I suggest for Monday's class, read over the 6 characteristics of the Behavioral Era, which is an important subject that we will discuss in Weeks 1-2 of the class notes. Also, you can start thinking about your own paper, and what subject you would like to study. All of the subjects that you can study are on the webpage: https://sds17.pspa.msstate.edu/poll/ContinuityGuide.html. Also, take a look at a sample student paper, and see how you have to pick four of the variables in this Continuity Guide that are all logically interrelated. A great student research paper guide is at: https://sds17.pspa.msstate.edu/classes/analysis/MoehrsPaper1.pdf. We'll talk more about the paper in the Monday class and lab.
Well, enjoy your weekend and this historically cold weather!
January 22, 2024. We covered the important subject of the 6 characteristics of the Behavioral Era, which is the double spaced notes in Weeks 1-2 of the on-line notes. For the lab, I showed students a sample research paper, and just told them to take a look at the subjects that they can study in the Mississippi Poll. Just go to the following link: https://sds17.pspa.msstate.edu/poll/ContinuityGuide.html. We have class on Wednesday, and we will also have optional labs after the Wednesday class for anyone wanting additional assistance on the course.
January 24, 2024. We briefly reviewed the 6 characteristics of the behavioral era, an important topic. We discussed whether humans are too unpredictable to apply science to, and whether researchers are too politically biased to be fair. We then covered the important topic of 4 characteristics of a good theory: explanation, prediction, generalizability, and parsimony, and applied them to the party-issues-candidates vote model. See the notes. For homework over the weekend, look over the class handout on the Mississippi Poll questions/variables, and think about what four variables that are interrelated that you would like to study in your research paper.
January 29, 2024. We mainly talked about model building, what hypotheses are and how they are worded, and how you come up with your own research paper topic, In the lab, each student came up with their own model for their research paper, and I ended up approving each one. The first part of your paper is due Wednesday, have it typed double spaced (in Word, for example), but I can receive it as late as midnight of that day as an e-mail attachment.
January 31, 2024. For Week 3 of the notes, we covered Units of Analysis and Levels of Measurement. We also applied these subjects to current events and the faculty member's research. Remember that the first part of your paper is due by midnight of today. E-mail it to me as a Word attachment.
February 5, 2024. We talked about the important subjects of Ethics, the 4 components of Informed Consent, and the differences between Anonymity and Confidentiality. We also talked about Reliability, specifically Test-Retest Reliability, plus why you might have low observed reliability. See the double spaced notes in Weeks 1-2, and Week 4. In the lab, we gave the research papers back, and I reviewed each of the four sample student papers regarding how they did the Literature Reviews and their References pages. Check out these 4 sample student papers. Some students have already used Jstor for previous literature searches, but I also mentioned Google (just type in a description of your hypothesis, such as sex differences in attitudes towards immigration).
February 7, 2024. We reviewed Reliability, especially Test-Retest Reliability, and then covered Validity, especially Construct Validity. At the end of Week 4 notes, I added a link to a journal article that actually uses these tests. I also told students to check out the two sample tests, and start working on their lit reviews, which we will also work on in the lab Monday.
February 12, 2024. We covered polling, specifically the 4 problems with polls. Biased samples and time bound polls, plus the presidential elections that are examples of those problems, is important to know. We also talked about what sampling error is, and what affects how much error you get. Important, we talked about the advantages and disadvantages of in-person surveys and of telephone surveys. In lab, students individually worked on their literature review for their papers. A student showed them how to use jstor to search for journal articles.
February 14, 2024. We talked about mail surveys, and their few advantages but most importantly their numerous disadvantages. We talked about sampling, weighting data, and other polling issues.
February 19, 2024. We had a review session for the test on Wednesday. Check out the two sample tests for the first exam.
February 21, 2024. The in-class test was today!
February 26, 2024. We talked about Mode, Median, and Means today. We also gave back the graded tests (your midterm grade is in Banner). In the lab, students continued to work on their Literature Review and References. To give students more time, the Literature Review and References can be turned in on Monday of next week (during class or lab) without any penalty. To ensure that I grade it before Spring Break, feel free to turn it in on Wednesday, though.
February 28, 2024. We talked about Range and Variance today, and gave examples of it. The subjects today and in the last class period will be on the next test.
March 4, 2024. We are into Week 8, Bivariate and Multivariate Tables. We covered Bivariate Relations and Tables today. They will be on the next test, and also you have to interpret them for the third part of your research paper. We also talked about Gammas. In the lab, students completed work on their literature reviews and references, which are due at midnight tonight (by e-mail attachment). Half of the class turned these assignments in by the end of the lab.
March 6, 2024. We covered Multivariate Tables today. Monday when you come back from Spring Break will be a review for the test, and the next test will be the next Wednesday.
March 18, 2024. We reviewed for the test on Wednesday. A newer practice test is on my website. I mentioned Chi Square as important in determining Statistical Inference, whether a researcher can generalize the results found in the sample to the entire population. If they can, then the results are said to be Statistically Significant. Significance at the .05 level or lower is desired. As such, when the bottom of your tables reads: Chi squared significance < .05, that is regarded as statistical significance. If it says, Chi squared significance > .05, that is not statistical significance.
March 20, 2024. The Second In-class Test was today. Those who are in Washington D.C. on the Stennis-Montgomery trip will take the test on Monday during class, as that is an approved business trip.
March 25, 2024. The graded second exams were returned to students. Those with excused absences took makeup exams during the class period. They returned to class for the lab, where the lecture material was covered again. Other students worked on the Findings section of their paper, and one student wisely had me check one of his paragraphs as a sample for the rest of his paper. Students were informed that their Midterm Progress grades had been updated, and that several students were reported to have B grades, but that they were high B grades. They were informed to focus heavily on the Findings section of the paper, which counts for about half of the paper grade. We covered Statistical Inference fully, and discussed both Chi Squared and T-Test for Differences between Means. We also talked about their papers, and how they should rely on Chi Squared for statistical significance in most cases. However, if Gamma has a significance level reported in their Tables (provided to students), then they should rely on the Gamma significance level. If Chi Squared is significant but gamma is not, that often means that there is a curvilinear relationship, so that their hypothesis is actually rejected (since hypotheses are worded in an ordinal manner).
March 27, 2024. We discussed the Findings section of the research paper by going through the first three samples of student research reports on my website. Students worked on their own papers, also. We decided to make the Findings section of the paper due on Wednesday April 10 (instead of the 8th), so that we can have one final lab before that part of the paper is due. The Findings section is very important, as it is worth one-half of the research paper grade, and many students have B+ averages for the class.
April 3, 2024. We covered all of Week 11, Bivariate and Multiple Regression. I also advised the students to review the sample student research papers for pointers on how to write up the Findings portion of the research paper. That part of your paper is now due Wednesday of next week by the end of class. Give me a hard copy by the end of class, or e-mail it to me and wait after class and come to my office to ensure that I did indeed receive the paper and was able to print it out.
April 8, 2024. We covered the experimental design by focusing on the classical experimental design. We discussed the 11 sources of internal invalidity, and the 3 sources of external invalidity. In the lab, students worked on the Findings section of their paper. It includes the Tables, which I sent each of you as an e-mail attachment weeks ago. The Findings and tables section of your paper is due by the end of class on Wednesday.
April 10, 2024. We reviewed the classical experimental design, and then covered time series design and quasi-experimental designs. We then talked about the Conclusion section of your paper, and students submitted the Findings part of their papers. The deadline for me to receive them is midnight tonight, so you can send them as an e-mail attachment.
April 15, 2024. We talked about panel studies today. I also gave back the graded research paper Findings section. Students had the option of working on their papers in the lab.
April 17, 2024. We talked about aggregate data and the ecological fallacy. Also, remember that the final rewritten research paper is due a week from today. Our last lecture will be on Monday, and Wednesday students will present their findings to the class by writing their initial model and final model on the board. Oral presentations should only be about five minutes each.
April 22, 2024. We covered Week 14 notes on Unobtrusive Measures. The lab had students work on their final, rewritten research papers (including the new Conclusions section), which are due Wednesday, the next class meeting.
April 24, 2024. Most students gave their brief oral reports on their research papers.
April 29, 2024. Remaining students gave their oral reports on their research papers. I gave back the graded student research papers. The papers were so strong that I made four pages of typed, single spaced comments on them, which I have retained for my own records. Students who completed the research papers do not need to take the optional final exam.